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#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？
After BTC surged to 87,000 and then pulled back, the market clearly shows that capital attention is no longer focused solely on BTC but has started to shift toward other coins across the market.
Glassnode data has already signaled this: cycle indicators are turning in favor of altcoins, with over 70% of tracked assets outperforming BTC in the past week.
NEAR, UNI, and ZEC have alternated in strength, boosted by their respective event catalysts; MEME coins like PEPE, WIF, and DOGE are also stirring up excitement simultaneously.
In the short term, risk appetite is indeed spreading, and the flourishing market is visible to the naked eye.
But there is a huge divergence right before us:
Can the script of BTC’s past four-year halving cycles still be replicated?
With deep institutional capital involvement from ETFs and corporate treasuries, the fundamental demand structure of BTC has been reshaped. The old cycle template may no longer apply directly.
Two key points to watch next:
1. Whether altcoins can continue to outperform BTC is central to judging if the rotation will persist;
2. The extent of BTC’s pullback and whether institutional capital behavior will produce a different pattern from history.
BTC is cooling off, altcoins are taking the stage—whether this is a temporary rebound or the start of a new cycle remains to be seen over time.
Are you currently heavily invested in BTC, or have you already positioned in altcoins? #BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？
After BTC surged past $87,000 this week and then pulled back, market attention is gradually shifting from Bitcoin itself to whether the rally will spread to other coins.
According to Glassnode data, the market cycle signal has switched to altcoin dominance, with 72.5% of assets outperforming BTC in the past week.
NEAR, UNI, and ZEC have taken turns strengthening, with many coins benefiting from positive catalysts; MEME sectors like PEPE, WIF, and DOGE are also becoming active, indicating short-term market risk appetite is spreading outward.
However, market divergence still exists. Whether the traditional four-year halving cycle can be replicated is questionable. Institutional funds such as ETFs and corporate treasury allocations are reshaping BTC's demand structure, so this bull market's rhythm may not follow historical patterns.
Key points to watch next: first, whether small and mid-cap coins can continue to outperform Bitcoin to confirm rotation effectiveness; second, the extent of BTC's pullback and whether institutional funds exhibit new characteristics different from past cycles.
The market is entering a style rotation window, but everything remains to be verified.Starlink 0924 ETH｜Today's Thoughts
Direction: Rebound repair, buy at low levels
First buy: 2640–2660
Stop loss: below 2625
Target: 2720–2740
If the market continues downward, 2630–2640 is the position more worth watching.
Why?
Because this is closer to the recent low point after the sharp drop at 2633. If the price retests here without breaking and shows support again, there will be a clearer "support confirmation."
Buying directly at 2680 is essentially chasing during the rebound process, and the risk-reward ratio is not that attractive.
So this time I prefer:
No chasing at 2680.
Wait for support at 2640–2660.
Around 2630 is the last short-term defense line.
Make trades at key positions, not forcing a price point every day just to post one. $BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ #美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？ #美联储官员密集发声，加息还要持续多久？ A single order of 1.5 million USD bought the dropped $UNI
After the price dropped, an address spent 1.5 million $USDC.
One transaction took 159,698 $UNI.
How this number is calculated:
1.5 million divided by 159,700, unit price 9.39 USD.
It wasn’t multiple partial orders, it was taken in one go.
In plain language:
In the past, people only took orders after the price dropped, one by one slowly.
This time it was taken all at once, indicating the order book was thin to begin with.
When the order book is thin, the same amount of money can push the price further.
Going further down, the same amount of money can buy more coins.
Conversely, it’s the same when selling.
#CME拟推BCH与UNI期货 $UNI $USDC The risk asset narrative in this window was first shaken out by leveraged long positions: According to CoinGlass, about $444 million long positions were liquidated within approximately 24 hours, marking a two-week high; in the same window, S&P Global's September Composite PMI surged to 58.4, the fastest pace in over five years. After bond yields rose, risk appetite was squeezed simultaneously. Some interpret this as "strong data = interest rate expectation reset"—about $136 million of positions were wiped out within an hour, mostly longs; others remind that the previous round of short squeezes and large inflows into spot ETFs just passed, and this time it looks more like a chain liquidation triggered by high leverage meeting macro surprises, rather than spot supply and demand having completely reversed. Headlines will focus on support levels and deleveraging shifts, but liquidation volume ≠ trading path. It could also just be a normal pullback in the bond yield window; it's still uncertain whether the next window will continue liquidations or if spot buying will narrow volatility. For now, note "PMI 58.4, about $444 million long liquidations." If there are continued outflows or more aligned official statements later, this window can be better contextualized.Coinbase CEO Armstrong said in a podcast interview on September 19 that banks lend out deposits without the depositors' knowledge or consent, which is an old rule inherited from the fractional reserve system. Stablecoins regulated by the GENIUS Act and backed by sufficient reserve assets may carry less risk than bank deposits.
You deposit 100 units, the bank keeps a small portion to handle daily withdrawals, and lends out the majority to earn interest. This is actually written in the contract you sign when opening an account, but no one reads it word for word.
Banks dare to operate this way because depositors' funds are insured by the FDIC, and losses are ultimately covered by the government; stablecoins do not lend out funds and theoretically have full reserves, but stablecoins like USDC currently do not have corresponding deposit insurance. Their safety depends entirely on whether the issuer's reserves are truly sufficient and transparent enough. The risks of the two models are not on the same dimension and cannot be simply compared as which is safer.
The timing is not a coincidence either. The CLARITY Act and the banking industry are fiercely debating whether stablecoins can pay interest. Armstrong's recent continuous statements are essentially a public stance in this legislative tug-of-war. He is also one of the biggest beneficiaries of USDC, and this interest relationship should not be avoided.
My view: What he pointed out—that "depositors have little awareness of how their money is used"—is true and is a systemic blind spot worth discussing; but using this blind spot to prove that stablecoins are safer is a bit premature—the safety net designs on both sides are fundamentally different and should be considered separately. $BTC retraces to 84K: Is the rally over, or are the bulls deleveraging?
BTC briefly dipped to 83.5K, triggering market panic. However, considering macro data and on-chain structure, this looks more like a healthy leverage cleanup rather than a trend reversal.
1. Reason for the drop: Macro shock
The US 10-year Treasury yield surged to 5.11%, PMI exceeded expectations at 58.4, combined with crude oil returning above $100. Strong economic data sparked inflation concerns, causing risk assets (US stocks → BTC → high Beta altcoins) to collectively come under pressure.
2. On-chain evidence: Leverage clearing
Open Interest (OI) plummeted: BTC dropped about 2.6%, but Binance perpetual OI crashed 10% (from $9.24B to $8.28B).
Funding rate returned to zero: Funding rate fell from 0.01% back to zero.
Conclusion: Price down, OI down, funding rate flat — a typical long liquidation cleanup. A trend decline usually comes with rising OI and persistently negative funding rates.
3. Key levels
Lifeline 84K: This is the largest chip concentration area for long-term holders (LTH). Holding here means the structure remains intact; rebound targets are first 90K-92K, then 95K-97K.
Trendline 77K: If 77K (mid-term cost support) is decisively broken, this rally can be considered truly over. $ZEC crashed sharply overnight, with leveraged long positions facing a "chain liquidation"!
ZEC plunged from a high of 1,580 to 1,420, down 10.13% in 24h, currently at 1,432. In the past 24 hours, over $120 million in liquidations occurred across the network, with $85 million in ZEC long positions liquidated, affecting more than 30,000 traders.
A chain reaction is unfolding:
① Breaking below the key 1,500 level triggered programmed stop-losses;
② Long contracts were forcibly liquidated, instantly amplifying sell pressure;
③ The privacy sector collectively declined, with DASH and XMR weakening simultaneously;
④ A liquidity vacuum emerged, suppressing rebounds due to liquidation pressure;
⑤ Sentiment shifted from "extreme greed" to panic, with insufficient spot market support.
This is not an ordinary correction; it is a leveraged stampede. Under high interest rate expectations and profit-taking escapes, contract-driven markets rise fast and fall even faster and harder. $ZEC #美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？ #财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布
In the early hours of September 25 Beijing time, Costco is about to release its Q4 financial report for fiscal year 2026, a key window to observe the resilience of U.S. consumer spending.
From the preliminary data disclosed, Q4 net sales reached $93.9 billion, up 11.3% year-over-year; comparable sales grew 9.4%, and after excluding oil prices and exchange rate disturbances, growth still stands at 6.7%. The sales data has already materialized. Next, market attention will focus on three core indicators: total membership size, membership renewal retention rate, and overall profit margin.
Costco’s business model is essentially a membership business. Strong sales do not necessarily mean profits are realized. In an inflationary environment, whether Americans are still willing to keep paying membership fees directly reflects consumer confidence. This financial report can be used to verify whether U.S. consumption has reached a turning point of weakness.
Another major event is Micron MU’s report scheduled for the early hours of October 1.
As a core player in the AI storage sector, the market guidance is: revenue around $50 billion (with a fluctuation of ±$1 billion), Non-GAAP EPS of $31, and an estimated gross margin of 86%. The AI boom has driven up storage chip prices, but whether the high gross margin can be maintained and whether the real purchasing demand from downstream AI manufacturers can continue to convert into revenue and profit, Micron’s financial report will be a touchstone.
On one side is the retail giant representing mass consumption, on the other is the storage chip giant tied to the AI cycle. One report reflects the resilience of consumer spending, the other shows the maturity of the AI industry. The consecutive release of these two reports will bring strong expectation disturbances to the global equity and crypto markets. #财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布
As the market repeatedly debates the pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts, two heavyweight earnings reports are about to be released—Costco $COST is scheduled for the early morning of September 25, and Micron MU will report on October 1. One represents the real consumption power of American residents, and the other is a barometer for the AI storage cycle. The data from these two reports will not only impact the US tech and consumer sectors but also indirectly influence the risk appetite trends of major asset classes, including the crypto market.
First, let's look at Costco $COST.
From the pre-released preliminary sales data, Q4 net sales reached $93.9 billion, up 11.3% year-over-year, with comparable sales growth of 9.4%; excluding gasoline price disturbances and exchange rate fluctuations, organic sales still maintained a 6.7% increase. Looking solely at revenue, this report looks quite impressive, proving that US end consumption has not experienced the rapid slowdown that the market fears.
However, revenue has already been realized in advance; the real focus of this earnings report is no longer on the sales figures themselves.
Next, market attention will focus on three core indicators: total membership size, membership renewal rate, and corporate net profit margin.
Costco's business core is not the margin on goods sold but membership fees. The membership renewal rate is a thermometer for gauging American households' confidence in future income. If the renewal rate remains high, it indicates that people are willing to continue paying, confirming the logic of consumption resilience; once the renewal rate turns downward, even if short-term sales are still acceptable, it means residents are beginning to tighten long-term spending, and the confidence in consumption is weakening How to use options synthesis to create a short position? There is a strategy structure called "risk reversal," where I sell 1 BTC call option and simultaneously buy 1 BTC put option, without paying a premium, so that a market decline can protect the position's value. When I also hold the spot asset at the same time, the entire position strategy combination is called a "collar" strategy.
Advantages: The strike price of the sold option can be higher than the current price, providing greater tolerance. In the example, a loss will only definitely occur if the price exceeds 88K by the October expiration.
Disadvantages: The protection effect is slightly inferior to directly shorting the contract.
The recently constructed structure has already started to provide protection for the spot position.#美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？
On September 22 local time, the US and Iran held about a three-hour indirect meeting in New York with the mediation of Qatar and others. The two sides exchanged views on topics including ceasefire, navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, maritime blockade, and frozen assets. Trump said the communication was productive, sparking market expectations for diplomatic easing. Coupled with expectations of improved regional supply, Brent crude briefly fell below $100, dipping to around $98 during intraday trading on September 23.
However, no substantive agreement was reached in the negotiations, and Iran did not abandon its original demands. Pezeshkian stated that Iran would not surrender to the US. Following this news, Brent oil prices rebounded to around $103. The oil price showed a pattern of falling first and then rising, indicating that the market is dynamically adjusting geopolitical risk pricing based on negotiation progress.
If the two sides can achieve substantive breakthroughs on ceasefire and navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, the energy risk premium is expected to further decline, thereby alleviating inflation and high interest rate pressures.
Interestingly, despite the geopolitical positive developments, BTC instead fell below $85,000. Many traders are puzzled that with the easing of the major geopolitical risk suppressing risk assets, the crypto market did not rally, and short-term selling pressure began to emerge. The geopolitical situation remains volatile, with increased fluctuations in commodities and crypto markets, and uncertainty still persists. #美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？
On September 22 local time, the US and Iran held about a three-hour indirect meeting in New York with the mediation of Qatar and others. The two sides exchanged views on topics including ceasefire, navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, maritime blockade, and frozen assets. Trump said the communication was productive, sparking market expectations for diplomatic easing. Coupled with expectations of improved regional supply, Brent crude briefly fell below $100, dipping to around $98 during intraday trading on September 23.
However, no substantive agreement was reached in the negotiations, and Iran did not abandon its original demands. Pezeshkian stated that Iran would not surrender to the US. Following this news, Brent oil prices rebounded to around $103. The oil price showed a pattern of falling first and then rising, indicating that the market is dynamically adjusting geopolitical risk pricing based on negotiation progress.
If the two sides can achieve substantive breakthroughs on ceasefire and navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, the energy risk premium is expected to further decline, thereby alleviating inflation and high interest rate pressures.
Interestingly, despite the geopolitical positive developments, BTC instead fell below $85,000. Many traders are puzzled that with the easing of the major geopolitical risk suppressing risk assets, the crypto market did not rally, and short-term selling pressure began to emerge. The geopolitical situation remains volatile, with increased fluctuations in commodities and crypto markets, and uncertainty still persists. ZEC blocked 62,379 transactions in a single week, a new high since 2022. The community is directly boiling, feeling this is a guarantee for a price pump.
Stay calm. On-chain data has latency—by the time you see impressive data, it is often already priced in.
This time it's even more exaggerated: on-chain data + ETP listing + whale short covering, all positive factors exposed at once. Such a "big positive package" exploding simultaneously usually means the short-term digestible gains have been absorbed.
The growth in privacy transactions indicates the product is being used, and the long-term logic is indeed solid. But good fundamentals do not mean the coin price won't pull back. Near historical highs, early whales are always ready to take profits—the on-chain data cannot stop profit-taking, and a single spike can wipe out a large amount of long floating gains.
Don't be brainwashed by impressive data or blindly leverage long positions at high levels.
Long-term fundamentals are sound, but short-term you must respect the power of capital realization. $ZEC 📊 $BTC PRICE FLAT, MONEY STILL MOVING
BTC has been sideways around $86K all day.
Last night’s bullish candle was decisive, but the interesting part came after the move: selling pressure stayed relatively light, with limited profit-taking.
Current levels:
₿ BTC: $86.43K
♦️ ETH: $2.77K
🟢 SOL: $119
Meanwhile, capital keeps flowing:
• BTC spot ETF: +$433M yesterday
• ETH spot ETF: +$144M
• SOL ETF: ~$60.7M weekly inflow, including $47.6M in one day.
#BTCPullbackAltRotation 2.19 Billion Long Positions Liquidated in 1 Hour: ETH Liquidations Surpass BTC, How Did This Long-Long Liquidation Cascade Happen? $ETH
In just the past hour, the entire derivatives market saw liquidations totaling as high as $225 million. In this sudden sharp drop, the bulls were the absolute victims—$219 million worth of long positions were forcefully liquidated in a short time, accounting for over 97%; in contrast, short position liquidations were a negligible $6.62 million.
This was not a fierce two-way washout between longs and shorts, but a very typical "long liquidation cascade."
1. ETH liquidations unusually surpass BTC, altcoin leverage gets cleared out
2. 97% Longs Forced Liquidation: The Mathematical Logic of Cascade Liquidations
3. High-level sideways trading or rapid rallies followed by swift pullbacks often come with leverage clearing. After a sharp reduction of excessively high short-term long leverage, market chips complete a passive turnover and restructuring. For on-exchange funds, the deleveraging process is intense but often frees up liquidity space for subsequent market moves.
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ Bull market shakeout?
Don't joke.
It's not the market being shaken.
It's the retail investors' brains.😇
When the US stock market opens,
$BTC first kneels in respect.
83,000,
the last piece of the fig leaf.
Hold it,
90,000 can still be a sci-fi trailer.
If broken,
directly top up margin,
and mend the heartbreak.
Every round of pullback is called shaking out floating chips.
Translate:
First shake you off the bus,
then hit the gas.
Heaven wants to destroy him, so it makes him mad;
The market wants to rise high, so it must first shake out;
Leeks want to break even, so they must first be shaken.😄
What about $ETH?
Small profit.
Neither up nor down.
Cost performance,
like overnight roast chicken.
First settle.
Exit.
Wait and see.
No shame.
Stubbornly holding on is what loses money.
$DOGE waits for rotation.
ZEC dances at high levels,
don't short it,
shorting it will send you to the moon.🚀
US-Iran three hours?
Positive signals?
Oil prices believed it first.
Costco roast chicken?
Middle-class wallets felt it first.
The market is dramatic,
don't take short squeezes as faith.
$BTC $ETH $DOGE
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？
#美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？
#财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 Why didn't I short after the two spikes yesterday? The stop loss was so small, but now the profit has retraced and it feels bad. I don't know if I'll get liquidated.#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？
After BTC touched 87,000 this week, it started to pull back. I clearly feel the market sentiment has shifted.
Glassnode data shows that cycle signals are now favoring altcoins; over 70% of assets outperformed BTC in the past week. NEAR, UNI, and ZEC have all shown independent rallies, and meme coins like PEPE, WIF, and DOGE have also become active.
Simply put, BTC is taking a breather for now, and funds are starting to spread into smaller coins.
However, we shouldn't be blindly optimistic. There's a key point now: with institutional funds like ETFs and corporate treasuries coming in, BTC's demand structure is different from before, and this cycle may not replicate the pace of previous halving cycles.
Going forward, focus on two things: whether altcoins can continue to outperform BTC, and the extent of BTC's pullback.
For example, UNI is now consolidating at a high level after its rally, with whales dominating the longs and profits as a cushion, but support and resistance levels must be well defended; chasing highs carries significant risk. #BTC surges then falls back, has market rotation begun?
After BTC surged past $87,000 and then turned down, a major quiet shift happened in the market: capital focus is no longer solely on Bitcoin, and signs of spillover in the market are becoming increasingly obvious.
Glassnode's latest cycle signals have switched to altcoins dominating, with 72.5% of tracked assets outperforming BTC in the past week. NEAR, UNI, and ZEC have taken turns strengthening, with many coins also having positive catalysts; Meme coins like PEPE, WIF, and DOGE are also stirring simultaneously, showing a clear rise in market risk appetite.
But there is a huge divergence facing everyone: will this cycle still replicate BTC's traditional four-year halving cycle?
ETF funds and corporate treasuries continue to enter, with deep institutional participation reshaping BTC's demand structure. The rules of historical cycles may not directly apply to this bull market.
Next, focus on two key points:
1. Whether other coins can continue to outperform BTC, as rotation is not a one-day event
2. The extent of BTC's pullback and whether institutional funds will follow a different path than history
The most challenging phase in a bull market is the transition from "only BTC rising" to "a hundred flowers blooming"—more opportunities but also higher risk of pitfalls. Rotation is here, but it doesn't mean blindly buying will guarantee profits; position management is always the top priority. From answering questions to directly handling tasks, is AI application really about to change the game this time?
Meta's Muse is exploding in popularity, with the key being turning providing answers into doing things. It can not only search for information but also open web pages in the background, fill out forms, book flights, and even list cars for sale, directly disrupting traditional chat boxes. This has also driven the parent company Meta $META's stock price steadily higher.
The computing paradigm has changed
Users are equipped with cloud virtual machines, which can run tasks 24/7 even when powered off, competing on backend execution capability.
Business model disruption
Once AI takes over booking and online shopping, it controls the transaction entry point, making commission fees more profitable than subscription fees in the future.
Trust and game theory pitfalls
The error tolerance for proxy payments and sending emails is extremely low; one mistake can collapse trust, and platforms will inevitably introduce anti-bot protocols to block such activities.
After the hype, Agents will face tests of reliability and cross-platform barriers. Without solving security and anti-blocking issues, traffic surges will easily fall back. Whether it can become a superintelligence depends entirely on overcoming the trust hurdle.
Meta $META's stock price is consolidating at a short-term high, but the mid-to-long term outlook remains optimistic driven by the advertising base and AI Agent commercialization.
Operationally, chasing highs is not recommended; you can wait for the stock price to pull back to the $680-$700 support zone to build positions gradually. Current holders are advised to raise stop-loss levels and continue holding.
DYOR
#muse The night Pompeii was completely buried under volcanic ash, not a single brick or stone thought it would become a fossil.
Holding a shovel to clear the $ZEC sediment layers, what I saw was an extremely typical destruction fault. Originally, I just wanted to do a light shallow exploration on the upper Bollinger Band, dig one scoop and leave. But when I was down 20%, I told myself this was a medieval accumulation period; when down 50%, I firmly believed I had unearthed a rare treasure comparable to the Code of Hammurabi.
Now, the cliff-like plunge has smashed straight to the core, and I have to admit, I am permanently sealed at the very top of the pyramid, becoming a buried mummy.
Look at this broken stele: the RSI has slipped down to the dark tomb path of 41.7, the price hangs on the cliff edge at 1514.13, and the middle band at 1559.18, like a collapsing dome, tightly suppresses the remaining air. All the illusory prosperity is nothing but another poor replica of the tulip bubble on parchment; greed and blind faith have never evolved an inch over thousands of years.
The mud below is unfathomably deep; the lower Bollinger Band at 1447.51 cannot stop gravity from dragging this wreck down. It's not that I don't want to excavate and cash out the chips in my hand, but just a slight touch would shatter this weathered corpse into dust on the spot.
- Target: $ZEC 🔴
- Entry: 1515.00 - 1535.00
- TP1: 1447.50
- TP2: 1380.00
- SL: 1565.00
Stratigraphy never lies. Any madman who tries to build the Tower of Babel in quicksand will ultimately have all traces of existence erased by wind and sand.🏛️
#CryptoEarningsPressure$BTC dropped nearly 50%, yet institutions stayed put. 👀
Bitwise interviewed 15 major investors, including pension funds, endowments, sovereign funds, family offices, and public companies managing $9B+.
Despite the sharp drawdown, none chose to exit. Some even increased their BTC exposure.
Most held only 1–2% of investable assets in crypto, suggesting they view Bitcoin as a long-term allocation rather than a short-term trade.
Volatility tested conviction — but didn’t break it. ₿ $CP doesn't understand that with a total circulation of over 1.3 billion, OK Earned Coins have nearly 300 million locked up, and we retail investors who are stuck at unknown layers hold billions in hand. Damn, what chips are left to keep dumping without regard to cost?$BTC is stuck at 83,000, I choose to stay put at this level
BTC dropped from the double top at 87,374, already breaking below the 5-day moving average (84,400), showing short-term weakness. But the price is still above the 10-day moving average (82,900), so the mid-term uptrend structure remains intact.
Today’s low was 83,439, just grinding against the support at 83,400. Above are multiple resistances at 84,400 and 85,500; below are supports at 83,400 and 82,900, the range is tightly compressed. Entering now means small gains but real losses, not worth it.
Wait for it to choose a side:
· If it breaks below 83,400, don’t catch the falling knife, wait for 82,900; if you really want to go long, wait for a volume contraction and a bottom between 81,000–82,000, then enter lightly with a stop loss at 80,700.
· If volume picks up and it climbs back above 84,400, first watch 85,500; only after taking 85,500 can it be considered a return to strength, then follow up and watch 87,000.
In between, just watch the show.
This correction is on low volume, no panic selling. But a low-volume bottom doesn’t necessarily mean a rise, it could just be a breather.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？
#美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？
#财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布
9/24 Crypto Daily
Iranians are slapping themselves in the face first.
Yesterday's "productive" three-hour meeting between the US and Iran was called out today by Tasnim News Agency, which is closely linked to the Revolutionary Guard — saying that Foreign Minister Araghchi's contact with the US envoy was not authorized by the Supreme National Security Council, directly labeling it a "mistake" and against national interests, and demanding he come out to explain. Rubio also admitted that the UN talks actually had no breakthrough progress.
What seemed like progress yesterday now looks more like a tug-of-war between Iran's moderates and hardliners internally, not a real diplomatic thaw.
Even more dramatic is the US debt. The 5-year yield hit 5% for the first time in 16 years, yields surged 15 basis points across the board, the dollar index broke above 101, Brent crude oil simultaneously jumped 4%, while gold and silver fell 1.6% and 3.9% respectively. This scale of asset-wide correlation is the largest in this round.
Hassett jumped in at this time to criticize Fed officials for too many hawkish remarks, demanding a "return to independence," with quite a bit of tension.
Today's news is livelier than the market.
#USIranSituation #USBondYields #FederalReserve $ASTS $ASTS /USDT This chart is quite interesting, outside it's completely quiet with no news, but inside the order book it's dog-eat-dog, orders placed then withdrawn repeatedly, purely funds aggressively pushing and dumping. At the 60.15 level, I choose to reduce my position first; the K-line surged too fast without volume support, a typical stance of a manipulative trader before a big cut. I'm not bearish, but the odds of this game aren't favorable, better to earn less than to stand at the edge of the knife. If you really want to buy back, wait until it has been cleaned out. What do you think—is this a shakeout or a real sell-off? Share your judgment in the comments 👇👇👇The short-term speculative narrative that $AKE has relied on recently is severely overextended, and market doubts about its fundamentals are rising. As funds flow back to sectors with real-world application scenarios, tokens lacking sustained catalysts are quickly marginalized. Buying support is very weak, and the price has been steadily declining from around 0.057, showing a clear weak trend.
Following the trend, shorted AKEUSDT perpetual contracts on OKX. Opened position at an average price of 0.05722 with 20x leverage, currently holding, marked price dropped to 0.04234, floating profit of 520.09%.
The sentiment downturn triggers a return to value. However, the 20x leverage has limited tolerance, and small-cap coins are very susceptible to sudden news or pump-and-dump spikes. Avoid blindly shorting and pay attention to risk control. $SNDK $ONE #美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？ Watching the market and seeing DeFi turn from green to red, the tea in my hand has gone cold halfway 🍓 Do you also have that kind of "just wait a bit longer for a rebound" hope, only to end up with an even longer bearish candle? UNI, DOT, and CRV have been hit pretty hard this round, with nearly -10% drops. To put it simply, it's two things stacked together: those who previously gained want to take profits, and high-volatility positions are being reduced. This kind of drop isn't pure panic; it's more like an active risk contraction. I'm also watching key levels: - UNI support is seen between 8.80 and 9.00; if lost, it could go down to 8.20 - DOT support is between 1.08 and 1.10; if broken, it may test 1.02 - These two levels aren't mystical; they are short-term sentiment dividing lines. If they don't hold, a second wave of stop-losses will be forced. Interestingly, OKB only dropped 3.65%, showing more resilience compared to peers. It's not really a core part of the DeFi narrative; rather, because its fundamentals are relatively independent, it has become a corner avoided by selling pressure in this round. Support is at 114 to 115; if lost, look for 110. This indicates that funds are not retreating indiscriminately but are choosing "whose story can better withstand holding." There is also a somewhat bullish logic: DeFi blue chips often catch up late in a market recovery. Being sold first now suggests the market is still in defense mode. Once BTC stabilizes and risk appetite returns, ultra-oversold targets like UNI and CRV will have great rebound potential. But the risk hasn't been fully discussed: if BTC just consolidates sideways instead of strengthening, DToday OKX is quite lively, but the money flow is uneven.
$ZEC ZEC surged to $1680 yesterday, hitting a record high and entering the top nine by market cap. Grayscale ETF has had net inflows for 16 consecutive days, forcing shorts to cover, with whales losing over 36 million. But it reversed this morning, currently at 1516, down 6.16% in 24 hours. Fortunately, it's still higher than 1472 the day before yesterday, with Grayscale's buying support still holding.
The "next BTC" is mainly being called out by Bankless's David Hoffman and trader Taiki Maeda, with the logic that ZEC's market cap is only 1.8% of BTC's, so there's plenty of room. But Grayscale's own data shows that out of the early 500 million, 100 million came from DCG-related companies, and the real external capital is about 70 million. The story is true, but don't get too carried away.
$BTC TC perpetual at 86K looks stable, but leverage is stacked high. Open interest is $61.1 billion, at the 98.9th percentile over 90 days, yet funding rates are very low. Translation: heavy positions, cheap borrowing, not confidence, just no better place for money. ETFs are buying, old players are selling. It fell back this morning to 84,000-84,500, resistance at 85,100/86,200, support at 83,800, break below looks at 82,000.
$ETH is the most awkward, not following the rise, but falling actively. Current price near 2680, down about 2.9% in 24 hours. Resistance at 2720/2775, support at 2650, if it doesn't hold, look at 2500. Overflow buying was taken by ZEC, new funds are chasing new projects like HYPE.Discussing this ZEC short position, originally it was a short, but last night I actually made a swing long that has already broken even.
After stopping out the short, I rushed into a long position too quickly, not expecting such a deep pullback. Also, hedging caused me to increase my position size, which was the biggest mistake, leaving me no room to add more now.
Finally, let's wait for the European ETF fund to launch on the 30th.
The current ZEC bullish trend is still ongoing; if it holds through this wave, I expect to break even and reduce my position by half, aiming for 1700-1800 or even higher.
The premise is not to get stuck halfway up the mountain.Optical bottleneck progress update: laser prices rise, demand exceeds supply!
Upstream (Lumentum/LITE):
🔥 $NVDA CPO UHP demand surges.
🔥 NPO scale > CPO, multi-wavelength lasers push up ASP.
🔥 Conclusion: UHP demand > supply (ongoing).
Foundry (Win Semi/$SIVE):
🏭 Rapidly expanding CW laser production!
🛒 Stocking up on $ASML DUV equipment, heavily investing in fab construction.
📐 Secured InP substrate supply, testing 6-inch wafers (saying goodbye to 4-inch).
⏰ Timeline: shipments in H2 2026, revenue expected 2027-28.
This resolves all market doubts about Sivers' partner (supply, size, timing). Don’t understand why anyone is still bearish on Win Semi? They now have everything needed for mass production. 🐂Coverage: Gold (precious metals) | Crude oil | Storage chips and AI storage (SK Hynix, Micron, SanDisk, also considering Samsung, Changxin, etc.) | AI industry | Crypto market (BTC, ETH) | Macro factors affecting pricing: US Treasury yields, US Dollar Index, Federal Reserve rate hike probabilities 1. Core Viewpoint One number has crushed all non-interest-bearing assets. The US September composite PMI preliminary reading was 58.4, up from 56.0 previously, while the market had only expected around 55.2, marking the strongest since July 2021. This means: US business suddenly looks extraordinarily strong, so the Federal Reserve not only has no need to cut rates but must continue to raise them. As a result, the 10-year US Treasury yield jumped 13.7 basis points overnight to close at 5.11%, the highest in 19 years since July 2007, reaching as high as 5.14% intraday. Gold and crypto both lost this week's gains. Spot gold closed at $4,286.30, down 1.71%, with an intraday high of $4,369.45; spot silver fell 3.95% to $64.43. Bitcoin retreated from the January high of $87,400 to about $84,400, down over 2% in 24 hours. Simply put: money that does not earn interest cannot compete with 5.11% Treasury bonds, which is a hard truth at the valuation level. Only crude oil rose against the entire market trend, and it rose the most aggressively. Brent November contract closed at $103.08, up 3.86% in a single day, erasing the previous five consecutive declines in one go; WTI closed at $92.16, up 1.81%. The trigger was only one: the Iranian president at the UN General AssemblyThe 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.13%, hitting a 19-year high! The real concern is not the US Treasury itself, but the renewed pressure on global liquidity!
For the crypto space, the logic is straightforward: US Treasury yield ↑ → USD attractiveness ↑ → cost of capital ↑ → risk asset valuations pressured → BTC and altcoins experience amplified volatility.
Currently, trading can be viewed in three scenarios:
① Yield continues to rise + USD index strengthens: focus on defense, consider reducing BTC positions when it rebounds to resistance levels, avoid chasing altcoins, especially those with high valuations and low liquidity.
② Yield spikes then falls + USD weakens: pressure on risk assets eases; if BTC reclaims key resistance levels, focus on BTC first, then capital spreads to ETH, SOL, and strong altcoins.
③ Yield oscillates at high levels + BTC consolidates: avoid betting on a one-sided market; range trading is more suitable. Wait for a directional breakout in both US Treasury yields and BTC before following.
The short-term core is not guessing whether BTC will rise or fall, but watching three signals: the 10-year US Treasury yield, the USD index, and BTC’s key support and resistance levels.
If yields continue to suppress liquidity, I lean towards defending BTC and reducing altcoin positions; if yields peak and fall, then it’s time to look for high Beta asset opportunities again.
Would you choose to defend BTC and short weak altcoins now, or wait for the US Treasury yield to peak before repositioning? The TRUMP token initially attracted a large amount of speculative capital based on political event expectations. As the event approaches or concludes, early profit holders begin to realize their gains. Coupled with tightening overall market liquidity, the spot market is under relentless selling pressure. In the absence of new capital inflows, market inventory is heavily backlogged, and shorts hold absolute dominance.
Based on the selling pressure logic, a short position on the TRUMPUSDT perpetual contract was established on OKX. The average opening price is 2.22, with 50x leverage currently held, the mark price is 1.956, and the floating profit is 594.59%.
Profit-taking is intensifying panic. However, under 50x leverage, even a slight rebound erodes principal, so risk control must be strictly observed and volatility viewed rationally. $BTC $SNDK #美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？ Have you noticed a problem?
The win rate is clearly not low, so why is the account still out of money?
Reviewing the trade records can sometimes be more heartbreaking than watching the market. A few trades you judged correctly ended very quickly; some coins you initially favored have long lost their reasons, yet you still hold positions in them. The win rate looks okay, but the overall tally shows little left.
What’s even more troublesome is that both money and attention are tied up in old positions. When the market heats up and new opportunities come one after another, you’re still waiting for that one position to return to its cost price.
When facing such trades, I think you can ask yourself: if you were empty today, would you still be willing to buy it at the current price? If you hesitate even yourself, holding on probably no longer has much to do with your original judgment.
Before buying, think clearly about the reasons for holding, and also what changes would indicate you were wrong. If the market moves as expected, give the position some time; don’t get shaken out by a small pullback. If the reasons are gone, don’t make up a new story just to avoid admitting a loss.
When the next big market move comes, your account needs positions that can run with it. Every time you just take a taste of the sweet spot and stop, relying only on guessing the direction, it’s hard to keep money. #BTC surge and pullback, has market rotation started?
Brothers, BTC just surged up not long ago, then immediately dropped back down. Just a moment ago everyone was shouting breakthrough, now they're doubting everything again. The crypto world is just this crazy.
I think this pullback isn't necessarily a bad thing. After $BTC rises to a high level, it's normal for funds to move around; not all money can keep chasing BTC nonstop. As long as BTC doesn't directly dive, $ETH and some strong altcoins might actually have opportunities.
If $ETH can keep up these days, it means funds are indeed starting to flow into $ETH. As for altcoins, don't rush in just because one suddenly pumps. Some coins appear to take off on the surface, but actually it's just the whales pumping them for show; if you chase in, the next day they start to slowly drop.
Right now, I'm watching if BTC can hold steady after the pullback. If it holds, that's high-level rotation; if it doesn't, then it’s just a pump to trap the bulls. No rush to call a full bull market yet, and no need to turn bearish just because of one red candle.
If BTC holds, $ETH has a chance, and altcoins will dare to move. Rotation might really be coming, but don't always jump in at the peak.Bitcoin has climbed back above $87K, but the bigger story may be happening behind the scenes. Since Aug. 19, spot BTC ETFs have reportedly attracted roughly $4.6B in net inflows, including a notable surge around Sept. 21. That points to stronger spot-market demand, suggesting the recent move isn’t being driven solely by leveraged futures activity. ETF flows don’t necessarily start a trend — but they can provide important confirmation when momentum is already building. 📊 Spot demand + ETF inflowJack Kong's account X was hacked.
I guess many people's first reaction is: Here we go again? Token launches, AI models, private message links—a full scam package.
I understand this numbness. Account hacks are no longer news in the crypto circle; you see them several times a month.
But this time I took a closer look. Nano Labs is a BNB treasury company listed on the US stock market, with a proper stock ticker.
So the issue isn't the account being hacked. It's that right after the hack, the scammers immediately posted "tokens" and "AI trading models."
What does this indicate? It shows that nowadays, leveraging the face of a listed company founder, the most valuable monetization path is still issuing tokens.
Scammers understand better than anyone what retail investors like to see.
This kind of news itself doesn't affect the market, so no need to overthink it. What you really need to watch is whether anyone actually buys these fake tokens afterward.
If they do, that's when the trouble starts.
#Strategy再度增持，财库同步加仓
#Apple、Google招聘稳定币相关人才，或进军加密支付？ #SoFi与万事达卡启动稳定币结算 $BNB $BTC (Big Pie) Yesterday, it was still expected to push towards the 90,000 mark, but overnight news from the US stock market poured cold water on that. US data exceeded expectations, causing the market to worry that interest rates won't drop soon, so funds fled to safety first. Big Pie directly dropped sharply and is now hovering around 84,000 USD. Simply put: this is a pullback phase after a rally. The first short-term support is at 82,500-83,000; if this level holds, there is still a chance for the market to grind back up to new highs. Once it breaks down with volume, it will continue to adjust downward in the short term. The resistance above remains around 87,000-89,000; until it breaks through with volume, the overall pattern is sideways, so avoid one-sided heavy longs. $ETH (Ethereum) Ethereum has fallen even more sharply than Big Pie, following the overall rhythm but with greater volatility; its drops often exceed Bitcoin's. The current price is around 2,680. Short-term support is at 2,630, with stronger support at 2,550; resistance above is 2,780-2,820. The current state is relatively passive; without Big Pie stabilizing, Ethereum is unlikely to strengthen on its own. If the market continues to sell off, Ethereum's correction space will be larger. $ZEC (Zcash) This coin has been quite strong recently, previously boosted by privacy narrative hype, with very considerable weekly gains, making it a strong small-cap in the market. However, today it also pulled back with the market. Its characteristic is that it rises quickly but also falls mercilessly. The key short-term focus is on the 1,400 USD support; if it holds, the strong trend can continue In late September 2026, the US core PCE data fell as expected, prompting the market to reprice the Federal Reserve's rate cut path, and risk appetite quickly rebounded. Funds that had previously withdrawn due to macro panic began to flow back into high-elasticity assets. As a leading Meme token, $DOGE was the first to absorb bottom-fishing funds, with strong spot buying driving the price to rebound strongly from the 0.08 level to above 0.09.
Following the trend, long positions were taken on DOGEUSDT perpetual contracts on OKX. Opened at an average price of 0.08271 with 50x leverage, currently holding, marked price at 0.09272, floating profit of 605.12%.
Liquidity recovery boosts the valuation of the Meme sector. However, 50x leverage has an extremely low tolerance for error and is very prone to liquidation due to repeated macro data fluctuations or profit-taking spikes. Avoid blindly chasing longs and pay attention to risk control. $BTC $SOL #美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？ As market funds massively rotate towards strong narratives and compliant mainstream sectors like AI and RWA, the $ETH ecosystem lacks recent strong catalysts and faces marginalization of capital. On-chain activity data is declining, and Gas fees remain low. The gap between buy and sell orders makes the price very susceptible to being crushed by small sell orders, accelerating the outflow of funds and its weak downward trend.
Bullish on the capital outflow trend, opened a short position on ETHUSDT perpetual contract on OKX. Opened at an average price of 2742.04, holding with 100x leverage, marked price 2671.7, floating profit 256.52%.
Liquidity withdrawal amplifies the downward drop. But 100x leverage is very prone to zeroing out due to sudden spikes, so remember to control risk during volatile periods. $BTC $ZEC #BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ 🔥"Chives Watching the Market Diary: $BTC Squats, $ETH Overtime, $SOL Sliding Down"
First thing in the morning, I check crypto prices more often than the weather. $BTC is around 84,400, down 2% in 24h, pulling back from last week's high of 86,000. Analysts say it's "highly financialized with wide fluctuations." I wanted to celebrate the breakout, but it first squatted at the 84,000 threshold, with support between 82,000–84,000, and to push higher, it needs to hit 87k–90k. This move from BTC is like a personal trainer at the gym: verbally says hold long-term, but first shakes up your mindset.
$ETH is around 2,680+, down about 2.5%–3%, fluctuating between 2,637–2,788 during the session. It’s not like a coin, more like a mid-level internet company: staking, TVL, and Layer2 are its three KPIs; the boss is the ecosystem, and raises depend on bull markets. Today, support is 2,650–2,700, resistance 2,775–2,825; hitting 2,800 counts as a top performer, dropping to 2,600 means reapplying for the job.
$SOL is about 114, down 3%, sliding back from yesterday’s ambition near 117–120 to 114, with support at 110–113 and resistance at 119–122. Riding this one is like a neighborhood elevator: fast going up, sudden stops, and you still say "very efficient." Today's takeaway: BTC watches macro and ETF flows, ETH watches staking and support/resistance, SOL watches speed and liquidation; be happy if all three lines are green, don’t add positions if all three are red—position sizing saves lives more than jokes. $TAO
AI stocks continue to rise, and the real opportunity may no longer be just Nvidia!
The AI market is spreading from the "computing power core" to the entire industry chain. The next focus is on five lines: AI power, HBM storage, high-speed networks, semiconductor equipment, and AI data centers.
The logic is simple: the more GPUs → the more servers → data transmission surges → data center expansion → power demand rises → equipment and infrastructure benefit comprehensively.
Especially AI power and HBM, which may become new directions for capital seeking catch-up gains.
What’s even more worth noting is that this logic may also transmit to the crypto space: AI capital expenditure continues to expand → US stock risk appetite increases → liquidity spreads to high Beta assets → BTC benefits → capital then looks for high-elasticity sectors like AI+Crypto, DePIN, AI Agent, etc.
Therefore, the real second phase of the AI market may not be to keep chasing the front runners, but to look for **"shovel-selling" industry chain opportunities**. The diffusion of AI capital is the real signal worth watching for the next round of the market.$BTC reached a high of 87.3K yesterday, now back around 84K, down about 2.7% in 24 hours.
Short term, watch 83.5K, which is near today's low. If it holds, there's a chance to retest 85K—86K; if it breaks, around 82K might become the next support level.
For rotation, I look at two signals: whether BTC.D continues to decline, and whether $ETH and $SOL can clearly resist the drop during BTC's pullback.
BTC needs to stabilize first for altcoins to have room. At this position, I'll chase less and wait for the market to choose its direction.
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ ✳️$BTC touched around 87400 before the total crypto market cap briefly reclaimed 3 trillion. But looking back, the market has dropped back to around 84300, down 2.3% in 24 hours, losing the 85000 level.
📊 Sweeping out shorts on the rally is one thing, but confirming the trend is another. The money excitement is over, and leverage risk is just beginning to show.
⚠️ Major test warning: This Friday, about $15.6 billion worth of Bitcoin options will expire, involving approximately 182,000 open contracts. Around the expiration, the market loves to swing back and forth.
🎯 Everyone is definitely more concerned now about whether 85000 can be quickly reclaimed.
▶ Quick recovery: This looks more like a shakeout, the bullish structure remains.
▶ Holding down without recovery: The previous surge to 87000 seems more like an emotional peak, and the correction level may expand.
👀 Keep a close eye on the recovery of the 85000 level, manage your positions well, and wait for the options settlement dust to settle before the market gives a true direction.
📉 As of press time: BTC -0.15%
(Source: OKX Planet 09/24 )
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 #美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？ #财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 📂 20U Real Account Record 099
💰 Principal: 20U
📈 Profit on this order: Floating profit
✅ Total earnings: About +70U
📌 Current position: $UNITREE
Position unchanged, but the market is deleveraging today, with several data points very intuitive
First, look at liquidations. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated about $440 million, with long liquidations accounting for 75%. BTC long liquidations were 131 million, ETH long liquidations nearly 100 million, $SOL long liquidations 16 million. BTC dropped from 87,000 to 84,200, ETH fell below 2,700, SOL dropped back near 115.
But there is a reverse signal on-chain. About 21,600 BTC (worth $2.16 billion) flowed out of exchanges in the past 24 hours, Binance net outflow 15,200, Coinbase Pro outflow 4,577. The futures market is deleveraging, while spot chips are moving on-chain.
Next, look at ETFs, funds have not stopped. Yesterday BTC ETF net inflow was 715 million, the fourth consecutive day of net inflow. SOL ETF single-day net inflow was 13.77 million, Fidelity FSOL single-day inflow 6.74 million, Bitwise BSOL historical total inflow has reached 1.134 billion, SOL ETF total net asset value 1.73 billion.
There is also hard data on the SOL ecosystem side. On-chain RWA scale hit a new high of 4.6 billion, up 11.47% in 30 days, holder addresses approaching 686,000, nearly doubled Just saw: After UNI's pullback, a whale with address 0xd42B dumped 1.5 million USDC in one transaction, buying about 159,698 UNI at roughly $9.39 each. Lookonchain just tracked this order.
Ah, so that's how it is — a single large buy after a pullback doesn't mean the bottom is set in stone. This transaction shows that some address dares to catch the dip after dumping, but it's managing its own position rhythm, not a "smart money collective rebound on UNI"; treating one market buy order as a trend reversal signal is like mistaking an isolated case for consensus.
A more reliable interpretation is: price retracements create liquidity windows, and someone willing to exchange cash for tokens doesn't guarantee the next candle will push the price back up. Whether the position continues to increase, or if there are second or third buys, is more important than just "catching the first buy."
When watching the market, you can compare the funding fees and position changes of UNI/USDT perpetuals on OKX to make your own judgment. DYOR, this does not constitute any buy or sell advice.edge
Circulating supply is 35%, with 4.86% already repurchased. The circulating market cap is 210 million, but the real market cap is roughly only 100 million because half of the tokens were airdropped to the project team's insider accounts and remain untouched.
Currently, the daily repurchase amount is about 20,000 USDT, roughly one-sixth of lit's. The platform's monthly protocol revenue is around 3.6 million, not far from lit's, only 20% less. However, the circulating market cap is 6 times less, and the real circulating market cap is 12 times less.
So actually, edge offers quite a high cost-performance ratio. With daily repurchases of 20,000 USDT, annual repurchases total 7.2 million USDT, which is already very high in the crypto space, especially considering the real market cap is only 100 million.
Given that the revenue is similar to lit's, but the token price is only one-sixth, and the project team has insider control, it’s also possible they are quietly accumulating and controlling the price during market downturns. If the token price can reach half of lit's market cap in the future, I believe the profit potential will be very significant.$ZEC ⚠️Technical analysis only, not trading advice, contract risk is extremely high
ZEC 4H｜Current price 1493.65
Wave structure change: 5-5 tail spike failed, previous high 1680.83 is the end point of this major 5th wave, officially entering ABC correction wave
Wave point text labels
• 5-1: 484.54 → ~1120
• 5-2: ~1120 → ~960
• 5-3 main rise: ~960 → 1680.83 (final top of major 5th wave)
• 5-4: 1680 →1470
• 5-5 attempted spike: 1470→1680.83, spike failed and fell back, entire 5-wave rise ended
✅ Current movement: Wave A decline (first wave of ABC correction)
Indicator status
• KDJ: J=-9.56, already in oversold zone, short-term rebound repair needed;
• MACD: DIFF crossed below DEA, green bars -23.09 continue to expand, bearish momentum releasing;
• RSI6: 34.59, about to touch 30 oversold line.
Key price levels
Resistance (rebound B wave resistance inside wave A)
1. First resistance: 1560-1600, rebound likely to encounter pressure here;
2. Strong resistance: 1680.83, reclaiming this level invalidates ABC structure.
Support (wave A target)
1. 1460-1470 (5-4 wave low) wave A continues to probe lower; further wave target: 1360-1380