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US August CPI Preview: Core Inflation Is the Key
The US August CPI is about to be released, with market expectations:
CPI: MoM +0.4%, YoY 3.4%
Core CPI: MoM +0.2%, YoY 2.4%
My judgment is: headline CPI may be slightly high, but core inflation is very likely still controllable.
The rise in oil prices in August may push up overall CPI, but the transmission from energy to goods and services takes time, and the Federal Reserve focuses more on core inflation. Recent data such as PPI and nonfarm payrolls have already released some pressure, and the market has priced in some negative factors in advance.
Three scenarios:
🟢 Core CPI ≤ 0.2%
Inflation concerns ease, technology stocks, gold, and crypto assets are expected to recover in the short term.
🟡 Core CPI ≈ 0.3%
The market may fall first then stabilize, with technology and AI sectors continuing to fluctuate and bottom out.
🔴 Core CPI ≥ 0.4%
Inflation significantly exceeds expectations, US Treasury yields may rise, and high-valuation technology, AI, and crypto assets will face pressure.
Barney's final forecast
Headline CPI: slightly high but most likely in line with expectations.
Core CPI: most likely to remain around 0.2%.
In short: a slightly high headline CPI is not scary; what really needs caution is an out-of-control core CPI. $PONS has been very hot recently with large liquidity. What is its fundamental situation? And does it have serious suspicion of being controlled by major holders like $LAB and $BEAT? What is the occupancy rate of its top ten addresses?
The fundamentals of pons are that anyone can quickly issue tokens, and part of the platform fees are used for buyback and burn. Recently, after Robinhood Chain exploded in popularity, a large amount of capital flowed into the pons ecosystem. Its advantages lie in traffic support, genuine platform fee generation, a buyback and burn mechanism, and extremely rapid active user growth. These advantages are also one of the reasons for capital inflow! However! The on-chain depth of pons is not particularly decentralized, making it easy for pump and dump to occur. Investigations and research have even estimated that during certain periods, over 90% of the trading volume appears to be artificially generated. So it is very, very, very risky! To summarize, this coin belongs to a highly speculative project with real business income, not a pure air coin. There is some capital concentration and sentiment-driven characteristics, but currently no clear evidence proves malicious control by the project team. Everyone should manage their positions carefully when buying and not lose big because of small mistakes ⛽️!Every time oil has gone through a major flush in the past, $BTC has eventually shown signs of forming an important macro low around the same broader period. And with oil making a strong recovery again, I thought it was worth bringing that idea back into the conversation. The interesting part is what happened after the previous setup. Since the lows, BTC has already recovered around 40%, while oil has also moved back up almost exactly in line with the broader idea that was being discussed. ObvioWhat really limits the market now is whether the CPI can firmly cement the 70% rate hike pricing 📉 The PPI has already pushed hawkish expectations higher; if the CPI heats up again, the 2-year yield and the dollar can easily accelerate further, and high Beta assets will bear the pressure first. $BTC $ETH $SOL
Next, focus on the yield reaction after the CPI release. If the data is hot but BTC can still hold, it means the negative impact is starting to blunt; if the data turns cold and the rate hike probability quickly retreats, the leverage washed out earlier will actually create more room for a rebound. ⚡️$BTC
Bitcoin has fallen for a week, but does this mean a rebound opportunity has arrived?
On September 4th, I indicated a negative signal for Bitcoin, and since then Bitcoin has started to adjust. So far, it has been continuously declining for a week, dropping from a high of 82,300 to a low of 76,460.
From the perspective of capital flow, Coinank data shows that Bitcoin spot funds have experienced net outflows for 5 consecutive days, with a large net outflow exceeding $400 million yesterday.
The cumulative net outflow over the past three days is about $896 million, which has already surpassed the cumulative net inflow of about $892 million during the surge from August 19th to 21st.
Regarding volume and price relationship, the average daily declining volume from September 4th to 10th is higher than the average daily declining volume from August 28th to September 2nd, indicating that recent selling pressure has indeed increased.
Therefore, from a mid-term perspective, both capital flow and volume-price relationship still support my mid-term bearish view.
However, from a short-term perspective, I believe there is no need to be overly pessimistic.
Yesterday's declining volume was less than that on September 4th and 8th, indicating that short-term selling pressure has weakened.
At 8:30 PM tonight, the US August CPI data will be released.
The PPI data released yesterday was generally strong, and the market's expectation for a rate hike in September has clearly intensified (over 70%).
Therefore, even if tonight's CPI remains high and further boosts rate hike expectations, the market may have already priced in some of the negative factors in advance. Russian Ministry of Defense battle report: A large number of Ukrainian air strike weapons intercepted in one week
The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that in the past week, Russian air defense systems intercepted and shot down 5,673 Ukrainian drones, while also intercepting 4 "Fire Flamingo" cruise missiles, 2 "Neptune" missiles, 14 "HIMARS" rockets, and 48 aerial bombs.
This battle report reflects the intensifying long-range strike confrontation on the Russia-Ukraine battlefield. The Ukrainian forces extensively use drones for deep harassment, while also deploying domestically produced long-range cruise missiles, HIMARS rockets, and other weapons to continuously strike Russian rear facilities. The Russian air defense system undertakes high-intensity interception tasks, and the aerial offense and defense contest between both sides continues.
From a macro transmission perspective, the prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict will continue to disrupt global energy supply expectations. If the conflict escalates further, it will push up oil prices, exacerbate inflation concerns, and strengthen market expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates. It is important to distinguish the current market logic: the geopolitical conflict itself does not directly bring BTC safe-haven buying; what truly affects the market is whether the conflict will drive up energy inflation, thereby raising expectations for interest rate hikes.
If the situation worsens, oil prices rise, and inflationary pressures rebound, it will instead suppress risk assets such as crypto; only when the market experiences systemic risk aversion panic will funds shift to hard assets like gold and BTC. Going forward, the focus will be on tracking whether the conflict spills over to energy infrastructure, as well as the linked changes in oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields. #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 Is inflation really getting out of control?! 😭 These past few days my mood has been all over the place
Oil prices went up, so things get more expensive. When things get expensive, interest rates are hard to lower. If interest rates don’t come down, Bitcoin longs are going to get crushed again! 😤
Yesterday, US wholesale prices rose 5.4% year-over-year, mainly driven by energy, with diesel prices up more than twenty points in a month.
The Red Sea’s Mocha port was taken over by the Houthis, so ships dare not sail, and oil prices are hovering above $100 on both ends. The longer oil stays high, the harder it will be for prices to come down later.
Tonight at 8:30 PM we’ll see the CPI, and at 10 PM we’ll see if Americans still dare to spend and if they think prices will keep rising. The Fed meets next week, and the market now thinks there’s about a 70% chance of a rate hike. 😱
If core prices unexpectedly soften a bit, my longs can breathe easier. But if gasoline pushes the overall number up, interest rate expectations will tighten again. Then BTC will get smashed, and my liquidation price will get closer again.
US stocks have fallen for four days straight. Apple rose on foldable screen expectations, and Oracle’s cloud revenue more than doubled, showing AI orders are still there and tech stocks aren’t rotten at the core.
Bitcoin is hovering around 77,000. The spot ETF saw nearly $300 million outflows yesterday, with shares redeemed for three days straight. But these funds still hold over $90 billion, about 6% of the total, so in the long run, more buying than selling.
As for me? I just crawled out of the ICU from a 50x long position, and now inflation might kick me back in? If tonight’s CPI blows up, I’m just going to close the app and play dead! 💀
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向
#财报观察员：甲骨文AI云收入增121%
#BTC现货ETF连续流出 The Swiss franc exchange rate poses challenges, but the real exchange rate has remained stable since 2020
The Chairman of the Swiss National Bank stated that the strengthening of the Swiss franc exchange rate presents a real challenge to the domestic economy, but from the perspective of the real exchange rate, it has remained generally stable since 2020.
The market often only looks at the nominal exchange rate. The Swiss franc's nominal exchange rate has been continuously rising due to geopolitical safe-haven buying, which suppresses Swiss export industries. Export-oriented sectors such as watches and machinery are under pressure, with overseas prices of exported goods rising, weakening international competitiveness. However, domestic inflation in Switzerland is significantly lower than in other major economies. After excluding price differences, the real exchange rate, although experiencing periodic fluctuations, has not shown a significant unilateral appreciation overall. This is the core fact emphasized by the central bank.
As a traditional safe-haven currency, the Swiss franc attracts large capital inflows when global uncertainty rises, pushing up the nominal exchange rate. On one hand, the appreciation of the franc lowers import costs and suppresses domestic inflation; on the other hand, it hits exports, creating dual pressure on a small open economy. The Swiss National Bank also retains foreign exchange market intervention tools to respond to excessively rapid appreciation of the franc.
Extending to the global macro level: the movement of the Swiss franc is linked to safe-haven capital flows in gold and the US dollar. If global risk aversion intensifies and the franc strengthens, it will divert some safe-haven funds; but if excessive appreciation of the franc weakens the Swiss economy and prompts central bank intervention, it will alter global foreign exchange market capital flows and indirectly disturb risk appetite in the crypto market. Going forward, focus will be on tracking fluctuations in the Swiss franc's nominal exchange rate, Swiss National Bank intervention actions, and changes in global geopolitical risks. #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 BTC at $77,000, are you panicking?
First, look at the surface: three consecutive bearish hits, bulls are stunned.
Since the high of 82,300 on September 3, it has steadily declined to around 77,000 today, down 6%. PPI year-on-year at 5.4% exceeded expectations, oil prices broke 100, the 30-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.35% (a 19-year high), ETFs had net outflows for three consecutive days, and the entire network liquidations reached 568 million contracts, mostly from the bulls.
First thing: PPI exploded, but the real thunder is tonight's CPI.
August PPI at 5.4%, hotter than expected. The market immediately pushed the probability of a September 16 FOMC rate hike to 70%-76%.
PPI is just the wholesale side; the real inflation signal is tonight's CPI.
Market expectations: headline 3.3%-3.4%, core 2.4%, core month-on-month 0.2%. With PPI hot and oil prices over 100, if CPI is a bit hotter, rate hike pricing will continue to rise, and BTC will directly test 76,000 or even 74,000. But if the core is below expectations, short covering will instantly pull BTC back to 78,000-80,000.
Second thing: ETFs are flowing out, but institutions haven't fled.
Net outflows of 450 million for three consecutive days, with ARKB contributing the most. The community started shouting "institutions are retreating."
ETFs still have a cumulative net inflow of 55.1 billion, with AUM around 97.5 billion, accounting for 6.3% of market cap. Three days of outflows totaling 450 million is less than 0.5% of total AUM. This is profit-taking and risk-hedging.
76,000-82,000 is the recent buyer cost zone, which is thickening; 83,000-86,000 is a dense cost zone for 1.07 million long-term holders, almost untouched.
Third thing: a technical signal that must be taken seriously has appeared.
The drop from 82,300 is a clear downward wave, but now 76,500-77,500 is consolidating in a narrow range with shrinking volume, with liquidations and ETF redemptions occurring simultaneously—this is macro-driven deleveraging, not liquidity exhaustion.
76,000 is the defense line; if broken, look at 75,700, then 74,000, then 71,800-72,000. On the upside, 78,000-78,500 is the first target, 80,000-80,500 is a psychological barrier, and 82,000-83,000 is the previous high and the lower edge of the trapped zone.
Bull vs. bear, you decide:
On one side:
Rebounded from 57,800, the 70,000 level structure remains intact
ETFs have a cumulative net inflow of 55.1 billion, institutional allocation trend unchanged
76,000-82,000 cost zone thickening, new funds stepping in
Coinbase CEO says the cycle bottom may have appeared
On the other side:
PPI exceeded expectations, 76% chance of rate hike
Oil price 100+, 30-year US Treasury at 5.35%, risk assets under pressure
ETFs outflow for three consecutive days, 568 million contracts liquidated
83,000-86,000 trapped 1.07 million coins, heavy ceiling
Resistance above: 78,000-78,500 → 80,000-80,500 → 82,000-83,000 → 83,000-86,000 (major resistance)
Support below: 76,000-76,500 (defense line) → 75,700 → 74,000 → 71,800-72,000
Trading strategy
Before CPI:
Stay out or hold minimal positions.
After CPI—bull conditions:
CPI not significantly above expectations, price holds 76,000-76,500, with volume-backed lower shadows or hourly close above 77,200. Targets 78,200-78,800, then 80,000. Invalid if daily close falls below 76,000 with volume.
After CPI—bear/defensive conditions:
Core hotter than expected + price breaks below 76,000, pullback fails at 76,800-77,200. Targets 75,700, then 74,000. If it breaks 75,700 directly, don't catch the falling knife; wait for 71,800-72,500 to reassess.
Mid-term, as long as 70,000 is not lost, the repair structure rebounding from 50,000-60,000 remains. Short-term must acknowledge the 82k to 76k is a valid retracement.
BTC now is like the "choking moment" before every data release—
99% are guessing the direction, 1% are waiting for confirmation.
Tonight at 12:30, one number will make half the people slap their thighs and the other half pop champagne.
In the data window, the most expensive thing is emotion, the cheapest is waiting for confirmation.
At the 77,000 level, are you betting on the data or waiting for confirmation?
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 $CORE $CORE deposit and withdrawal landing, both bulls and bears completely missed out, everyone's expectations were dashed!
Many predicted that opening deposits and withdrawals would directly trigger a waterfall drop, so they shorted in advance, but the market did not experience the expected crash.
Some also believe that resuming deposits and withdrawals means the exchange recognizes the project, waiting for a big surge.
As for the 300 million tokens released in excess, the project team will sell them off in batches based on market absorption capacity. If buying demand is strong, they will gradually sell over about half a year; if absorption is insufficient, the release will be extended to two or three years. In the short term, it seems calm, but this batch of tokens hanging overhead remains a hidden selling pressure risk.
Without a large amount of continuous capital inflow, it is difficult to break the entrenched consensus of "selling whenever there is a slight rise." The current calm does not mean the risk has disappeared; it just means there is no concentrated outbreak for the time being. I no longer dare to heavily invest. I shorted 7 positions on ZEC today, and fortunately made 50u profit, so I won't gamble anymore. Can't afford to lose, need to be more stable. No more rushing; as the saying goes, "Haste makes waste." Currently, I have a short position on Ethereum, just letting it be, the liquidation price is still high. Today I reviewed all the price movements of Ethereum in September since 2018. There was only one year with a gain, in 2024 it only rose 3.54%. In other years, it mostly declined, with the largest drop reaching 17.18%. So this year, it is very likely to follow a downward trend.Bessent urges the Senate to advance the CLARITY substitute amendment; the “legal status” of BTC/ETH is just one step away
Treasury Secretary Bessent just spoke out, urging the Senate not to dawdle and to quickly push the CLARITY amendment forward, or else the U.S. risks losing its top spot in digital assets.
This bill is the "final step" for $BTC and $ETH. Previously, the SEC and CFTC jointly classified these two as digital commodities, but that was an administrative interpretation that could be reversed by a new administration. CLARITY aims to enshrine the "commodity" status into federal law, nailing it down so no future administration can undo it. The amendment contains a very clever clause: tokens that have become the main assets of compliant ETFs before January 1, 2026, will directly skip the "ancillary asset" secondary category, securing a clean legal status. BTC and ETH spot ETFs are already running, effectively receiving a precise exemption without even needing the secondary label.
The vote on the 15th requires 60 votes; Republicans hold 53 seats, needing 7 Democrats. Galaxy has slashed the probability of passage this year to 9%. If it passes, ETH’s staking yields and ETF structure will have permanent legal backing; if not, BTC remains stable with ETF support, but ETH and subsequent tokens will have to continue navigating the gray area of enforcement. This vote is not just procedural; it is a watershed moment for two regulatory destinies.
#CLARITY替代修正案公布，贝森特呼吁参院推进 @OKX中文 Uchikawa's hand reached for d5, and the whole room heard the sound of that pawn dropping—the Bank of Japan's normalization is not a tactical check but a structural opening reconstruction.
In the past twenty years, the carry trade has been the fattest square on this chessboard: you borrow yen at almost no cost and turn around to capture any piece with higher yield. This is not a tactical advantage; it's a loophole in the rules, a pawn given away by White in the opening. But any long-standing free lunch, in the eyes of a grandmaster, is a hanging variation—it will be cashed in sooner or later, just no one knows on which square the decisive move will land.
The August corporate goods price index rose 7.6% year-on-year, with a monthly decline of 0.2%, which is just an inconsequential pause. Among sixty-eight economists, sixty-six expect a 25 basis point rate hike to 1.25% on September 17-18, with twenty-four already calculating the second step in October. The market has "fully priced in" September, meaning this move is no longer on the calculation tree; the real question is: the opponent's pace of advancement.
Pace is everything in the middle game. If rate hikes are fast, the yen, a rook idle for many years, is activated, forcing the carry trade to unwind, and global risk assets must liquidate some pieces. Tokens like $xAAPL, essentially "long-duration" castles, are far more sensitive to discount rates than the broader market. Once the yen tightens, the first to be liquidated are not the marginal pawns but those central strongholds that seem most stable.
But don't rush. Grandmasters never cheer for a single move. The real question is: how many pawns remain in the Bank of Japan's endgame? The debt structure means it cannot sustain high rates for long, so it is more likely to proceed with "gradual coercion"—each small push causes the carry trade to self-exhaust under time pressure. This is a typical attrition: no check, just space compression until the opponent makes a mistake.
So the current board is not about being bullish or bearish but about who can endure deeper calculation. The September move has been calculated by everyone, so it carries almost no information; the real blade is hidden in the second advance in October or December. If the yen and long-term yields rise simultaneously, risk assets will face a double check—you must first sacrifice a pawn before deciding whether to give up the queen.
I view positions as piece configurations, not expressions of opinion. Fully priced moves are not worth heavy bets; unpriced pace changes are worth early positioning. At this moment, I prefer to keep the two rooks and queen, waiting for the real response after that move lands, rather than betting the entire clock on a variation already realized.
The king's wing of the carry trade remains solid, but its pawn chain has begun to crack. Whoever sees that collapse first can promote a pawn to queen in the endgame. #bojratehikeinfocusCrude oil prices are declining, and the probability of a rate hike in September is weakening. Can further drops in oil prices offset the expected impact of tonight's CPI? Tonight's CPI is considered the "final approval" before the September monetary policy meeting. Before the data release, due to the short-term drop in international crude oil prices, the probability of a September rate hike has fallen to 67.1%. #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 Clearly, although tonight's CPI is the main data to watch, crude oil prices remain a core variable that can either amplify or offset the impact of tonight's CPI. I won't go into a detailed breakdown of tonight's CPI data here; you can refer to the image. Besides focusing on the impact on the September rate hike probability, attention should also be paid to the secondary transmission effects in services, housing, and energy sectors. This is for detailed research; for most people, just focus on the data itself. In the image, I have listed three possible data combinations, from best to worst. Assuming crude oil prices remain unchanged, these will directly affect the September rate hike probability. The best data combination would weaken the September rate hike probability, likely bringing it back to the 45%-55% range. The neutral combination would likely keep the September rate hike probability around 65%-80%, but the detailed data on commodities, secondary inflation in energy, and services will determine whether the probability shifts up or down. The worst combination would directly push the September rate hike probability above 80%, even up to 90%. Crude oil prices remain a core variable. Currently, crude oil prices have already preemptively lowered part of the September rate hike probability, but this decline is insufficient. Crude oil prices want toBurning 70 million sounds like a lot, but don't forget its total supply is 90 billion!
The official $IOST announcement of burning 70 million "old tokens" was met with cheers from the community. But when you put the denominator into perspective, the story falls flat!
$IOST has a circulating supply of about 3.539 billion, a total supply of about 4.88 billion, and a max supply of 90 billion.
70 million accounts for 0.2% of the circulating supply, 0.14% of the total supply, and 0.078% of the max supply—none of these denominators even reach two-thousandths. Plus, over 13 billion tokens are still unreleased, and nodes continue to mint new tokens. It's burning on one side and producing on the other, like a damn assembly line!
The price is honest too: down 9.17% today, currently at 0.0009388, dropping from 0.0011911 to 0.0009082 in 24 hours, with a market cap of only about $35 million, down 99.2% from the all-time high of 0.1298.
Conclusion: For a coin with a total supply of 90 billion, burning 70 million is like scooping a bucket out of a pond, and it's still continuously minting—scooping and pouring at the same time.
Don't be fooled by the word "burn." Look at the denominator first, then see who's selling. This kind of rebound is for reducing positions, not for bottom-fishing! After ZEC entered the top ten by market capitalization, the market started talking about "institutionalization." But the truly interesting aspect of privacy coins is that the more institutions want to buy, the more it has to answer an apparently contradictory question: how to protect privacy while allowing holders to complete audits?
Zcash's shielded transactions can hide addresses, amounts, and notes, but it also provides viewing keys, allowing users to selectively disclose account activity without giving spending permissions. This design once sounded very technical, but now it may become key to institutional adoption: funds, custodians, and enterprises need privacy, but also need to prove the source of funds to auditors, tax authorities, and internal risk controls.
Therefore, ZEC's institutionalization cannot rely solely on price increases and new investment channels. What truly determines the ceiling is whether wallets, custody, reporting, and compliance tools can make "selective disclosure" sufficiently user-friendly.
I actually think this market cycle has brought privacy coins to their most serious test yet. Complete transparency sacrifices business privacy, while complete un-auditability makes it difficult to enter institutional balance sheets.
If ZEC can solve this contradiction, entering the top ten is just the beginning; if not, no matter how high the market cap, it will only be a temporary sentiment.
#ZEC跻身前十，机构化进程提速 I've seen too many thirty-story unfinished buildings, with steel bars twisted like braids and concrete strength less than half the design value, yet the sales office's model is prettier than the real building. Now someone asks me, holding a construction budget of one million US dollars, with the Fed's interest rate decision coming next week, how should this money be allocated?
First, look at the foundation. The Fed's hammer strike in September isn't about decoration style; it's about the groundwater level changing across the entire site. If you put all your heavy assets on the foundation before it's properly investigated, it's like building shear walls directly on a mud layer. I wouldn't do that.
My allocation is based on structural levels. Thirty percent for the bottom load-bearing layer—spot market as the base, main structures like Bitcoin and Ethereum, arranged as regularly as a column grid, not chasing aesthetics, just ensuring no collapse. No fancy stop-loss here because it's the foundation slab; touching it means dismantling the load-bearing structure.
Twenty percent for dollar-cost averaging, equivalent to segmented pouring to avoid cold joint risks in a single pour. Whether the Fed hawks or doves, I pour steadily, smoothing out settlement differences over time.
Ten percent for the grid, which acts as expansion joints, specifically absorbing thermal stress caused by price fluctuations. Range trading isn't a profit tool but a structural measure to keep the main structure from cracking.
The remaining forty percent is reserved for cross-market assembly. For tokenized US stocks, like something called XLITE, I treat it as prefabricated components—light itself but requiring verification of connection nodes with the main building. The linkage between stocks and crypto isn't a simple overlay; they are two stress systems. If the nodes aren't done well, one side settles while the other doesn't move, tearing the joint. For oil and commodities, I allocate at most ten percent as counterweight to adjust the overall center of gravity.
I don't touch the main structure with futures and options, only temporary support frames. These are construction measures, removed after use, never included in the as-built drawings. If you treat them as permanent structures, expect the whole floor to collapse at inspection.
The real problem with the site now isn't material selection but that the survey report isn't out yet. Only after a week will we know if the underground is bedrock or quicksand. Everyone who has already gone all-in signed the general contract without geological data.
What truly determines whether this building can stand for fifty years is never the foot traffic at the sales office on opening day but the foundation inspection records that no one wants to look at now. Whoever squats by the pit to examine the soil profile before pouring is the one who survives. #okx1millionstrategistFrom 2001 to present on 9/11
17 valid trading days, 15 times up, 3 times down
Only in 2002, 2009, and 2020
SPX closed down
Other times it closed up
#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 #日银年内再加息成焦点
The Bank of Japan is really about to shake things up this time.
The core impact on the crypto world can be summed up in one sentence — the cost of borrowing money to trade crypto is going up again.
The yen has been the cheapest source of carry trade funding globally. For the past decade or so, institutions have borrowed near-zero-cost yen, converted it to dollars to buy US stocks and Bitcoin. Now with Japan raising rates to 1.25%, and possibly more hikes within the year, the faucet is being tightened. As borrowing costs rise, the chain reaction of carry trade unwinding will follow, pulling funds out of risk assets, with the crypto market hit first.
What’s worse is that it’s not just Japan tightening now. The US PPI is off the charts, with a 70% chance of a rate hike in September. The European Central Bank also raised rates by 25 basis points recently and raised inflation expectations. The three major central banks in the US, Japan, and Europe are jointly draining liquidity, tightening global liquidity simultaneously. In this macro environment, the crypto market can hardly remain unaffected.
Here’s my take.
The script of yen carry trade unwinding already played out once in August 2024. Back then, Bitcoin dropped from 70,000 to 49,000 in a week because the Bank of Japan’s rate hike triggered a carry trade liquidation stampede. Now with the BOJ hiking again, although most of it is already priced in, the volatility between "selling the rumor" and "buying the fact" is still hard to withstand. Until the macro environment eases, don’t bet on a one-way move; controlling your risk is more important than anything.
What do you think?
$BTC $ETH Interpretation by the Governor of the Reserve Bank of India: The logic behind rising bond yields varies across countries
The Governor of the Reserve Bank of India recently stated that the driving factors behind the rise in bond yields in different global jurisdictions differ significantly, and India's current fundamentals are not the same as those of other economies. Recently, bond yields in many countries worldwide have risen simultaneously, and many market participants have applied the same logic to interpret the bond markets of various countries. The RBI Governor's remarks aim to distinguish the underlying logic of India's market from that of Europe and the US.
The rise in yields in Europe and the US is more due to sticky inflation, persistently high deficits, and expectations of monetary policy tightening. In contrast, India maintains steady economic growth, inflation is gradually falling, the fiscal policy framework is relatively controllable, and bond market volatility does not fully replicate the logic of overseas countries. The Governor's statement also signals to the market that India will not blindly follow the policy pace of overseas central banks; monetary policy will be based on independent judgment of domestic economic data.
At the global macro linkage level, rising bond yields in Europe and the US bring capital outflow pressure, causing widespread impact on emerging markets. However, the RBI emphasizes its own fundamental independence, meaning India has more operational space in exchange rate and interest rate regulation and can rely on policy tools to stabilize the local currency and bond market. This macro change will indirectly affect global capital risk appetite. If emerging markets can stabilize their bonds and currencies, the pressure on global risk assets will ease; otherwise, a stronger dollar will continue to suppress high-elasticity assets like BTC. #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 On September 11, Deribit's approximately $3 billion worth of $BTC and $ETH options expired, marking a significant divergence in market sentiment. BTC's put/call ratio was 0.76, with call options still dominating; ETH's ratio rose to 0.89, indicating stronger bearish bias and professional funds shifting to a defensive stance.
In terms of price, BTC briefly tested a low of $76,651 intraday, trading in the $76,700–$77,300 range, with a 24-hour drop of about 2%; ETH fell to around $2,420, a 24-hour drop of 3.9%, testing the $2,400 support. Both declined simultaneously, reflecting traders reducing positions rather than rotating them.
The capital competition range is clear: BTC is fiercely contested between $77,000 and $82,000, with large funds not betting on a one-sided trend. In the past 24 hours, $446 million was liquidated across the network, with $352 million in long positions, accounting for as much as 79%, indicating a significant risk of short-term heavy positions.
On the macro level, the US August PPI rose 5.4% year-on-year, exceeding expectations. Coupled with oil prices breaking through $105, the probability of a Fed rate hike in September has risen to nearly 70%, and the market is likely to repeatedly insert the CPI data ahead of the release.
Notably, BTC's 90-day correlation with gold rose to +0.50, approaching the 2020 pandemic high, indicating that investors increasingly view both simultaneously as inflation hedges. #PPI is above expectations, and tonight's CPI is set for direction.The 10-year US Treasury yield breaking through the 5% threshold is now a done deal. So where is the real eye of this global bond market storm?
Simply put, the bond market bloodbath appears to be driven by soaring oil prices and PPI exceeding expectations, but the more painful truth is the Treasury Department robbing Peter to pay Paul.
The Treasury's $5.2 billion bond repurchase was intended to inject liquidity into the market, but the willingness to take over was dismal, with subscriptions only half of the quota, directly shattering the market's remaining confidence. The huge deficit pit remains, bond supply keeps flowing, but buyers are starting to shut the door, and this is the essence of the long-term interest rate runaway.
The derivatives market is betting over 70% on a Fed rate hike, completely forced by cost pressures. Tonight's 8:30 PM CPI data just needs to add fuel to the fire, and the 5% threshold will be instantly breached. At that time, not only will mortgage costs continue to squeeze homebuyers to death, but US stock valuations will be pulled higher, and all risk assets will have to undergo an extremely painful repricing.
In the short term, don't rush to bottom-fish. Even if tonight's CPI doesn't collapse, this high interest rate pressure combined with fiscal deleveraging means funds will likely retreat first into US Treasuries and the dollar for high yields, and risk assets will probably experience a liquidity drain.
Only when the Middle East situation cools down, oil prices fall to squeeze out cost bubbles, or the Treasury throws real money to rescue the market, will the bond market bottom be truly solid. At the moment the data is released tonight, hold your hands first, watch the capital flow clearly before making a move.
DYOR
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 刚把IOST清掉了，心里那根弦终于松下来🍓 你们有没有过那种，图越看越不对劲的瞬间？ 这单我只想吃一段超跌反弹，没打算谈恋爱。进场位置不高，吃了四十多个点已经很满足，但越盯盘越发现：MA5和MA10确实跟上来了，MA20却还死死压在0.001337上方。这不是反转结构，是反弹结构。大方向依然朝下，只是跌太狠了，给了一口喘气的机会。 真正让我决定走的，是BTC。它在78800附近晃，看着平静，其实很不稳。只要今晚丢下78000，IOST这类山寨很可能直接跌破0.001。一天能砍60%的品种，是没有底的，BTC稍微打个喷嚏，它就能再腰斩一次。这不是危言耸听，是这类币的日常。 偏多的逻辑我也认：超跌反弹确实能跑出很凶的短线，MA5、MA10金叉那一下，情绪容易上头。但问题是，这种反弹交易的是修复，不是趋势。市场现在定价的，是反弹能走多远，而不是底部到了没有。被提前计价的乐观，恰恰是风险所在。 第二层影响更值得想。BTC一弱，资金不会往山寨躲，反而会先撤出来观望。ETH跟着抖，山寨失去承接，板块轮动的节奏会从进攻切回防守。这时候还拿着小币等反转，等于把节奏交给了别人。 我的判断：现在更像下跌Governor of the French Central Bank Warns: Economy Worrisome, Fiscal Deficit Urgently Needs Resolution
Emmanuel Moulin, Governor of the French Central Bank and member of the ECB, publicly stated that the current economic situation in France is concerning, calling on the government and parliament to take action to properly address the budget deficit issue. He mentioned that although France is not in crisis, the overall situation is not optimistic, and public finance problems urgently need practical solutions. While the Eurozone economy as a whole continues to expand, France is clearly lagging behind, with weak consumption combined with declining investment. The official economic growth forecast for this year has been downgraded from 0.7% to 0.5%.
The ECB recently completed an interest rate hike and raised inflation expectations, believing that the European economy has shown resilience amid regional conflicts. Moulin explained that the rate hike policy serves the entire Eurozone and has both positive and negative effects on France. The continuously rising interest rates will directly increase France's national debt interest payments, which are expected to reach €100 billion annually by 2028 to 2029, significantly increasing the debt servicing pressure.
From a global macro perspective, rising sovereign fiscal risks in Europe will exacerbate volatility in the global bond market. If France's debt issues continue to worsen, capital will seek safe-haven assets, which is a short-term positive for gold; meanwhile, the ECB's tightening monetary policy will continue to suppress global risk assets, and BTC and other crypto assets will also be indirectly affected. The fiscal and interest rate dynamics in Europe, #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 $SPCX USDT at $149.51 has an unusual problem: the company story is getting stronger while new share supply keeps hitting the market. SpaceX just completed another classified U.S. Space Force launch, its 104th Falcon 9 mission of 2026, while the company is also expanding its AI-computing ambitions. But traders are dealing with something more immediate. A fresh post-IPO unlock made up to 319M additional shares eligible for sale on September 9. The stock initially dropped more than 4% on the supplyCommon Characteristics of 100x Coins
Low Circulating Supply: Circulation generally accounts for 20-30%, with a large amount of tokens locked up, allowing a small amount of capital to pump the price;
Highly Concentrated Holdings: The project team/early whales hold the vast majority of tokens, enabling the market to be artificially manipulated;
Narrative-Driven, Not Performance-Driven: Relying on hot sectors (RWA, GameFi, Meme, AI) to tell stories, with actual revenue far from supporting the market cap after the surge;
Contract Leverage Amplifies the Market: During the surge phase, a large number of leveraged long positions flood in, and cascading liquidations accelerate the decline during the crash;
Inevitable Deep Retracement After the Surge: Except for PONS which retraced 84%, the other three retraced 94%-99.7%; 100x is a theoretical maximum return, and ordinary people almost never sell at the peak;
Unlocking is the Biggest Killer: After the surge, a large number of team/investor tokens unlock, creating huge selling pressure.Oil prices have collapsed, gold has rebounded, so why are the three giants still lying low?
Less than three hours before the results, the market showed a small divergence: Brent crude plunged 4% back to 101, the Red Sea ceasefire, US stock futures turned positive, gold made a V-shaped rebound, yet the three crypto giants are still down on the ground.
BTC $BTC at 77,200, it even broke below 77,000 in the early session. The oil price plunge should be good news—less inflation, less pressure to raise rates—but it hasn’t really followed through. Tonight is the main switch: if core CPI is below 0.2%, 77,000 is the stage bottom, and 80,000 is directly in sight; if above 0.3%, breaking the 76,350 all-in cost line means looking down to 75,000.
ETH $ETH at 2,448 remains the most stable of the three, down less than 1%. Exchange balances hit new lows, floating chips are few, it can’t be pushed down or pulled up, just waiting for the market to give direction. Resistance is at 2,500 above, iron bottom at 2,400 below. If CPI warms, it will steadily recover; don’t expect a surge or a deep drop.
$SOL is the worst, at 98.9, it has already slipped below the 100-dollar threshold. High beta is a sin in a weak market; when the market hesitates, it falls first; conversely, if tonight’s data gives some sweetness, its rebound slope will be the steepest. First watch if it can reclaim 100, then 105; if data disappoints, look for 95 or 90. Elasticity ranking is always SOL > BTC > ETH, same for pullbacks.
Traditional markets are already trading ahead on "oil price decline, inflation easing," the crypto world is just waiting for tonight’s CPI report. Don’t fuss, those holding steady hold steady, those out wait for signals, whoever moves first follows the other.$BTC $ETH $ZEC
Falling rate-hike expectations are pushing yields and the dollar lower, creating a favorable backdrop for risk assets—with Bitcoin typically reacting first.
At the same time, institutional demand remains strong. U.S. spot BTC ETFs recorded $3.8B in net inflows over three weeks, including $731M on Sept. 3 alone.
Liquidity is speaking louder than the headlines. 📈
#BTC #ETH #ZEC #PPI #CPI
#PPIHotCPINext #OracleAICloudUp121% #BTCSpotETFOutflows 热于预期的 PPI 数据引发风险资产波动，高杠杆多头遭遇集中清算。过去一轮清洗规模约 $290M，但真正值得关注的并不是清算数字本身，而是： BTC 并没有因此直接跌穿关键支撑，而是在 $75.5K–$76.8K 区间继续寻找平衡。 市场正在发生一个重要变化： 过去 → 交易员更多押注美联储转向宽松 现在 → 市场开始要求 价格和成交量真正证明强势 📌 关键位置： 🟢 $75.5K 守住 → 本轮可能只是杠杆降温，后续仍有机会重新挑战 $79.5K–$82K 🔴 $75.5K 跌破 → 注意 $72.8K–$74K 的进一步流动性测试 与此同时，CPI 即将成为下一项重要催化剂。若通胀继续偏热，美债收益率与美元可能保持强势；若数据降温，市场对政策宽松的押注可能重新升温。 所以现在真正的问题不是： BTC 是在失去杠杆，还是在失去买家？ 👀 如果只是杠杆被清洗，但现货买盘继续承接，这可能是健康的结构重置。 但如果价格跌破关键支撑，同时 ETF 资金、现货成交量和买盘同步走弱，那就需要重新评估整个上涨逻辑。 $BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC #Bitcoin #PPI #CPForget the price chart for a second — Fed hike odds jumping to 74% is the real headline today. That single shift is what's dragging $BTC to $76,990 and $ETH to $2,411, both down about 2.4%, with $SOL pinned near $100. The twist: $BTC funds bled money for two straight days, but $ETH funds kept attracting fresh capital anyway. Price is reacting to rates. Flows are telling a quieter, different story. #PPIHotCPINext #OracleAICloudUp121% #BTCSpotETFOutflows Seeing Oracle's earnings report, my first reaction was that AI money is really damn easy to make, with AI cloud revenue directly up 121%.
Oracle released its fiscal year 2027 Q1 earnings report, with cloud infrastructure revenue hitting $7.4 billion, a year-over-year surge of 121%. Last quarter's growth was 93%, and the quarter before that 84%, each quarter stronger than the last. Total cloud business revenue reached $11.6 billion, up 62% year-over-year, setting a new record.
Even more impressive are the orders. Remaining performance obligations soared to $664 billion, up $26 billion quarter-over-quarter and $209 billion year-over-year. This quarter alone, over $30 billion in new AI cloud contracts were signed, and more than 300,000 GPUs were delivered to AI customers.
After the earnings release, the stock price jumped over 10% in after-hours trading. This veteran database company Oracle has completely repositioned itself as an AI computing power provider. But the data isn't all rosy. Capital expenditures for the quarter were $28.5 billion, compared to just $8.5 billion the same period last year, more than tripling. Free cash flow plunged to negative $5.4 billion. Full-year capital expenditure is expected to reach $70 billion, with an additional $20 to $25 billion to be prepaid for components. In plain terms, orders are pouring in, but they have to spend money first to build data centers and GPUs before the money can come in.
What impact does this have on the crypto world? AI computing power demand is so high that even Oracle's $70 billion investment can't keep up, which is why projects like HYPE, related to decentralized computing, can have whales locking up $2.5 billion. Computing power is hard currency #财报观察员：甲骨文AI云收入增121% $SNDK Tonight (Beijing time 9/11 20:30), the US will release the August CPI, which is now the "last piece of the inflation puzzle before the Fed's 9/16 meeting." The current market has priced in about a 67%–71% chance of a rate hike in September, the 10-year US Treasury yield is around 4.95%, and oil prices have broken $100, so the CPI is not simply about "inflation levels," but determines whether the Fed will raise rates and how many times. 1. Market consensus - Overall CPI month-on-month: +0.4% (driven by energy, market not very concerned) - Overall CPI year-on-year: 3.4% - Core CPI month-on-month: +0.2% - Core CPI year-on-year: 2.4% → 2.5% falling back to 2.4% The real focus is on core CPI month-on-month: 0.2% or 0.3%, which is the watershed for US stocks. 2. Three scenarios' impact on US stocks 1) Core CPI month-on-month ≤0.2%, no spread of service inflation → US stocks rebound - Rate hike expectations fall, 10-year US Treasury yield falls from around 5% - Nasdaq/semiconductors/AI leaders show the most obvious recovery - S&P 500 may rise +0.5% to 1.5% (JPMorgan scenario) 2) Core CPI month-on-month around 0.25%, overall meets expectations → volatile "good news fully priced in" - Market still believes in a September rate hike, but bets on a December hike do not increase further - US stocks first surge then fall back, tech stocks fluctuate greatly, index range-bound 3) Core CPI month-on-month ≥0.3% The 10-year US Treasury yield has risen to 4.96%, a three-year high, just shy of the 5% mark.
Among 122 respondents, about 30% believe that the 5% to 5.25% range is enough to cause the US stock market to pull back 10% from its peak. The true meaning of this figure is not a prediction but an indication that the opposing side has already set the trigger line there.
The mechanism behind rising yields is straightforward: risk-free returns become more expensive, compressing the relative attractiveness of stocks. On the passive side are those holding high positions, while the beneficiaries are those waiting to enter at lower prices. The chief economist at RSM says the market is on the edge of a correction, which itself is an expression of positioning.
For now, this is the only confirmed step: expectations form before prices. Next, watch whether the 10-year yield can hold above 5%. If it does and the US stock market does not fall, it means this transmission chain has dulled, and those who drew the line will need to find a new anchor.
#10年期美债逼近5%关口，回购难阻收益率上行
#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 #日银年内再加息成焦点 $ETH #PPI higher than expected, tonight's CPI will set the direction
The reason the market hasn't experienced a cliff-like drop yet is actually not complicated in its core logic.
First, the support at low levels is very solid. A large amount of funds that missed the earlier entry have already placed limit buy orders below, so any slight price pullback will be quickly absorbed.
Second, the short-sellers themselves are showing signs of loosening. Those high-leverage, large-volume shorts are taking profits near key support levels, and covering shorts naturally converts into buying pressure.
Third, the news has not yet entered the true trigger window. Tonight's PPI and tomorrow night's CPI are the key variables determining the short-term direction; major players won't fully exit their positions before these heavy data releases.
ETF fund flows best reflect the real sentiment: yesterday, $BTC net inflows turned negative, and Bitcoin immediately dipped to 77, indicating selling pressure does exist; but $ETH maintained net inflows, with the price still stable at 2470.
This is precisely a divergence signal: funds have not fully withdrawn, just adjusting their structure. BTC is suppressed by ETF redemptions, while ETH is quietly being accumulated by institutional funds.
My response strategy:
Remain on the sidelines before data release, do not predict direction;
After data release, observe volume—only consider following if volume expands and price breaks key levels; low-volume rebounds are just traps;
Focus on ETF flows for BTC, and watch if ETH funds can sustain net inflows.
What truly causes damage is never the market volatility itself, but loading your positions fully before the data is released.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC If big money is truly worried that retail investors can't buy low-priced BTC, recent moves seem more like leaving liquidity to the market rather than actively replenishing it. About $1.2B of BTC liquidity has been withdrawn over the past three days, with about $480M lost just last night, but so far, there has been no strong enough major incremental capital entering the market. What's even more noteworthy is that the market is about to welcome the US CPI, an important macro catalyst. Inflation data will directly affect expectations for Fed rate cuts, and changes in the US dollar and Treasury yields may amplify BTC's short-term volatility. 📌 Next to watch: 🟢 CPI below expectations → Rate cut bets heating up→ Risk assets may find support 🔴 CPI above expectations → yields rise→ BTC may face further selling pressure 👀. If spot funds flow back and trading volume increases simultaneously, it will better prove that buying is returning. So now, don't rush to guess "what the main players are really trying to do." Before capital flows back, any rise needs to be confirmed; True strength requires seeing price, spot trading volume, and capital flow coordinate in tandem $BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC #Bitcoin #CPI #Crypto #DailyOrbit$BZ Brent settled at 107.63 last night, rising more than 6% in a single day, with perpetual contracts breaking through 112. WTI once touched 104, then plunged 2% during today's session, falling back to around 100. A swing of five to six dollars within one day is not based on fundamentals but rather geopolitical sentiment grabbing the steering wheel.
The driving logic is straightforward: escalation of US-Iran conflict, continued low traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, EIA estimates that the average shutdown of Middle East crude oil in August has reached 6.7 million barrels per day, with Saudi Arabia alone shutting down 3.55 million. More troubling is that global commercial crude inventories are at historically low levels, and the strategic reserves of the US and Japan are approaching safety limits, leaving a very thin buffer.
But one variable must be closely watched — Asian buying demand. ING pointed out clearly yesterday: whether the rally can continue depends on whether Asian physical purchases keep up. OPEC just cut its 2026 demand growth forecast to 380,000 barrels per day, marking the second consecutive downgrade. Demand is cooling, supply is shrinking, and with both sides in a tug of war, oil prices are likely to fluctuate at high levels in the short term, but the risk-reward ratio for chasing higher prices is no longer favorable. Current price is around $77,000, and the biggest keyword for BTC right now is not "wild swings," but: waiting for direction choice.
🔥 Short-term view: oscillating with a bearish bias, rebound will first face resistance.
* $80,000: the first psychological barrier in the short term; only a firm hold above this marks a clear strengthening.
* Around $77,000: the current tug-of-war zone between bulls and bears.
* $75,000: important support; breaking below may accelerate the search for lower support.
* If volume breaks through $80,000 → $82,000, market sentiment may quickly improve.
⚠️ What’s truly worth watching today is the US CPI + Federal Reserve interest rate expectations. Currently, rising oil prices, inflation pressure, and higher US Treasury yields are suppressing risk assets; the 10-year US Treasury yield is already close to 5%.
In a nutshell:
BTC now is like a cat standing at the stairway—afraid of heights going up, afraid of falling going down.
A break above $80K could reignite bullish sentiment; losing $75K, don’t rush to bottom-fish.
Today's strategy: don’t chase the rally, wait for a breakout; don’t panic, wait for support.
For market analysis only, not investment advice.Tonight's CPI could become the most important directional choice for the crypto market in the near term.
The market is currently under pressure. August's nonfarm payrolls far exceeded expectations, with 162,000 new jobs added, which has pushed up expectations for Fed rate hikes again; Thursday's PPI showed a 5.4% year-over-year increase, further reinforcing inflation concerns. Meanwhile, oil prices have climbed back above $100, the 10-year US Treasury yield is close to 5%, the dollar is strengthening, and risk assets are under pressure.
The market currently expects August CPI year-over-year to be about 3.4%, with core CPI around 2.4%. The real importance lies not in the data itself but in the "actual value versus expectations" gap. If CPI is lower than expected, especially if core inflation cools significantly, the market may reprice a Fed pause on rate hikes, leading to a pullback in the dollar and Treasury yields, and $BTC could have a chance to challenge $80,000 or even higher again; if CPI is higher than expected, especially if core inflation rebounds, rate hike expectations may intensify further, putting more pressure on $SOL, $ETH, and high-beta altcoins.
Currently, BTC has already pulled back from around $81,000, and long positions in the market have clearly shrunk, indicating that funds are waiting for data to confirm the direction.
So tonight's analysis should be: CPI → Fed rate hike probability → Treasury yields → Dollar → BTC
If inflation cools, this signals a renewed expansion of risk assets; if inflation remains stubborn, the market may further enter a liquidity tightening trade.
Tonight is not just a simple data event but a critical juncture for the market to reprice Fed policy for September.Gold $XAU "Emergency Brake": The Tug of War Before the 4300 Level
COMEX gold is currently quoted at $4385/oz, down 0.5%, with a daily range of 4341–4402; it has retraced 3% from the September 3 high of 4520.
The real culprit is not the war, but interest rates: the 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 4.96%, the US dollar index broke above 99, sharply increasing the cost of holding gold, causing a single-day drop from 4480 to 4358 on September 10. Domestic gold ETFs also fell about 1.5% in sync.
The year-to-date gains remain intact, and the 52-week high of 5626 is far from recovered. Tonight's CPI is a watershed moment—holding 4300 and reclaiming 4400 would mean catching a breath.PPI DIDN’T BREAK THE BULL MARKET — IT’S CHANGING WHO GETS TO STAY
Hot PPI wiped out leveraged longs, but the real signal isn’t the $363M in liquidations.It’s that $BTC is still holding around $76K–$77K instead of collapsing deeper.
The market is shifting from “buying on Fed-easing hopes” to “buying only when price proves strength.”
If $76K holds, this flush could be a leverage reset—not the end of the uptrend.But if it breaks,the story changes completely.
Is BTC losing leverage—or losing buyers?$SKHYNIX 1438 didn't hold, contracts are easier to get shaken out than spot.
OKX's SKHYNIX is around 1365 today. Yesterday it dropped from 1404 to 1321 and closed at 1322, today it rose from 1322 to 1365, with an intraday low of 1316. This is tokenized/perpetual trading, tracking Hynix's stock price, but with leverage, funding fees, and open on weekends, the volatility is dirtier than Korean stock spot.
Right now, there are only three useful things on the chart. First, whether the 1316 to 1321 range can really hold; if it can't, it's not a pullback but a continued step down. Second, whether the 1365 level can be reclaimed with volume; if not, selling pressure remains, with resistance at 1408 and 1438 above. Third, don't treat the Korean stock close as contract support; the two can temporarily decouple, especially during US sessions and weekends.
Don't chase the rebound at 1365. If you want to act, either wait for 1320 to stabilize before watching, or wait for it to firmly reclaim 1365 and 1408. At this mid-air position, catching a flying knife is the easiest way to become the opposing side.I've watched a lot of earnings reactions over the years, but this pairing stood out to me. Two companies, same week, both genuinely tied to the AI buildout — and the market treated them like they were telling opposite stories. What I Saw in $ORCL Oracle put up numbers I'd call unambiguous. $19.3 billion in quarterly revenue, up 30% year over year. Cloud infrastructure alone jumped 121%, and management didn't just meet expectations for the year ahead — they raised the full-year target to at leastEveryone is watching $ZEC's ETF, but they don't realize that the vote on September 14 is the real key!
$ZEC has dropped 14% in two days, but one date has been overlooked: September 14, when Zcash will vote to decide on Network Upgrade 7!
This is not a small matter. The Ironwood upgrade was activated on July 28, adding a "revolving door" mechanism to the Orchard privacy pool, limiting anonymous assets leaving the pool. The NU7 vote will decide how this rule will proceed in the future, directly affecting whether the privacy narrative holds — this is the core value proposition of ZEC.
Another more practical angle: Grayscale ZCSH already holds over 550,000 ZEC, about 3% of the circulating supply; on September 8, DCG exchanged 85,705 $ZEC for about $100 million worth of ZCSH shares. Coins are moving into the fund, shares are being sold out.
The macro environment isn't helping either: Brent crude oil price is approaching $110, the 10-year US Treasury yield has risen to 4.96%, and the probability of a rate hike next week is 71%.
Kuzi thinks 1000 is the support line; if it breaks, watch 950. This round of decline is due to leverage plus macro factors, not the collapse of the privacy story, but when the direction is unclear, it's better not to add positions! #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 市场终于不买AI故事！财报要看真金白银
甲骨文财报出炉，市场不再只听AI叙事，实打实的收入兑现才是定价关键。甲骨文AI云基础设施收入同比大涨121%，较上季度93%进一步提速，营收、EPS双双超预期，剩余履约义务从6380亿攀升至6640亿美元，订单持续落地。
虽然数据中心资本开支高企，自由现金流承压，但公司维持全年开支规划，还上调业绩指引，盘后上涨1.6%。反观Adobe，财报同样超预期、上调指引，盘后却下跌2.29%。
差别就在于：市场对AI商业化愈发谨慎，光有美好预期远远不够，必须看到实实在在的盈利兑现。AI竞争已经从疯狂砸钱，转向比拼变现能力。
这对BTC存在间接支撑：甲骨文、微软等巨头持续加码AI基建，海量资本开支不断消耗法币信用，非主权资产长期叙事并未改变。但短期行情仍被宏观主导，$BTC 在76900附近震荡，方向依旧要看今晚CPI数据。
财务数据只是入场券，兑现能力才是真正的定价锚。刺哥说完了，细品。
#财报观察员：甲骨文AI云收入增121% After holding my $USELESS long positions for so many days, it finally looks close to breaking even.
This price action is starting to resemble a large M-top pattern, which could mean more downside ahead.
Bonk Guy often sells when he posts trade signals, while another coin he holds heavily, $PONS, has already taken a major hit. So why assume $USELESS will continue climbing?
The meme coin game hasn’t really changed.
$USELESS
#DailyOrbit #PPI higher than expected, tonight's CPI sets the direction
PPI has already given a hawkish signal; tonight's CPI is the key data that will truly determine the September rate hike expectations.
PPI higher than expected, tonight's CPI sets the direction.
Although the US August PPI released yesterday rose 0.4% month-over-month as expected, the details were clearly hotter, with core PPI continuing to rise, quickly heating up market expectations for a Fed rate hike in September.
After the data release, the market briefly pushed the probability of a September rate hike from about 62% to 74%. 
So what the market is really waiting for now is tonight's August CPI.
Current market expectations:
CPI month-over-month +0.4%
CPI year-over-year about +3.4%
Core CPI month-over-month +0.2%
Core CPI year-over-year about +2.4%. 
This CPI is very important because it is the last key inflation data before the Fed meeting on September 15–16.
For BTC, there are three scenarios to consider:
① CPI below expectations
Inflation cooling → rate hike probability falls → US Treasury yields decline → USD weakens → BTC gains room to rebound.
If core CPI is only 0.1%–0.2%, the market may reprice "Fed pauses rate hikes."
⸻
② CPI meets expectations
If core CPI is +0.2%, basically in line with market expectations, then a one-sided market move may not occur.
Because the market has already priced in a significant portion of the rate hike expectations.
In this case, what’s more likely is:
data release → BTC volatile swings → rate hike expectations repriced → then searching for direction.
⸻
③ CPI above expectations
This is the biggest risk.
If core CPI reaches 0.3% or even higher, the market may further price in:
Persistent inflation → higher probability of September rate hike → US Treasury yields rise → USD strengthens → BTC under pressure.
Especially now that crude oil has climbed back near $100, and the US-Iran conflict has brought new inflation pressure to energy prices, the market worries not just about a one-time energy shock but about high oil prices spreading to transportation, services, and other sectors. 
So tonight, what really matters is not just the year-over-year CPI.
But:
Actual value vs expectations
→ How rate hike probability changes
→ How US Treasury yields move
→ How USD moves
→ Whether BTC funds follow.
The market has shifted from "Will there be a rate hike in September?" to:
"If there is a rate hike, will it continue afterward?"
This is the most important point of tonight's CPI.
In short: PPI has already ignited rate hike expectations; if tonight's CPI again exceeds expectations, BTC pressure may further increase; if CPI clearly cools, it could become an important catalyst for the market to bet again on easing and for BTC to rebound.
In the short term, I will pay special attention to core CPI: 0.1% is dovish, 0.2% basically meets expectations, 0.3% and above is clearly hawkish. $BTC #PPI higher than expected, tonight's CPI will set the direction $BTC
PPI exceeding expectations has pushed rate hike expectations very high. If tonight's CPI is also hot, the probability of a rate hike in September could surge to 80%, causing a wave of market panic first. After BTC filled the gap on the daily chart, the rebound was weak; the big bullish candle was swallowed by a bearish candle, with the bearish candle showing high volume and the bullish candle low volume. Bulls can't push it up, funds are withdrawing, short-term bias is bearish. 76200 is the watershed: breaking below it and quickly recovering may lead to consolidation; near the previous low, longs can be tried; if it breaks down effectively, there is a vacuum below, possibly leading to a continuous waterfall drop, looking at around 71000 near half of the weekly big bullish candle.
Currently, the market has priced in rate hike expectations too fully; if CPI really exceeds expectations, it might actually be the last drop; if CPI isn't that hot, shorts will cover quickly. The technical side is bearish, no doubt, but at 76200 longs and shorts will fight; don't heavily bet on direction before the data. A break below with quick recovery is a fake breakdown, low longs have a chance; if it truly breaks and can't recover, don't bottom-fish, wait and see around 71000. In this kind of market, position size is more important than direction; staying alive means having a next trade.From the current order book structure, there is still significant buying support below the $75,000–$77,000 range. In other words, although there is still room for short-term volatility, liquidity below is not thin. To see consecutive and deep drops, stronger macro bearish factors are needed. Recently, after BTC retreated from its stage high near $82,000, market sentiment has noticeably become more cautious. Meanwhile, US spot BTC ETF funds have maintained strong inflows for several weeks, with cumulative inflows reaching about $3.8 billion over three weeks, indicating institutional demand has not completely disappeared. What truly needs to be watched now is the macro environment. Oil prices are approaching $110 again, the US 10-year Treasury yield is also close to 5%, and inflation and Fed policy expectations are putting pressure on risk assets. Therefore, I won't simply interpret the current pullback as a trend reversal. If the support near $75,000 holds, BTC still has a chance to challenge the $80,000 or even $82,000 range again. In the short term, I will focus on watching: 🟢 75,000–76,500: core support zone 🟢; 78,500–80,000: first resistance zone 🟢 82,000–83,000: strong resistance near previous highs. As long as the market does not experience sudden liquidity deterioration, continued large-scale ETF outflows, and macro data further pushing rate hike expectations, I won't easily judge that BTC will fall back below $70,000. Of course,This time, I'm not so confident in treating the drop as a normal pullback.
After such a long sideways movement, the market has already worn down many people's expectations.
When $BTC BTC falls to the lower boundary of the range, someone steps in.
When $ETH ETH drops near 2400, someone buys the dip.
After several times, everyone gradually forms a consensus:
It won't fall further, just buy and that's it.
But the problem is, what the market likes to do most is to first let you form a habit, then suddenly change the rules of the game.
After last night's PPI, BTC broke below 77,000, and I actually started to be cautious.
Not because this single candlestick is that scary.
But because the external environment is starting to change.
US Treasury yields are rising again, inflation expectations are heating up, and the market's expectations for the Fed's September policy are also shifting.
Previously, capital was willing to give BTC a higher risk premium, but now it’s recalculating:
Is holding risky assets really worth it?
So I'm not in a hurry to guess the bottom now.
Instead, I will wait for a rebound.
If BTC rebounds to around 77,500–78,000 and still shows no obvious volume breakout, I still lean towards shorting.
Next, watch 76,000.
If that level can't hold either, then around 71,000 is the real level I want to observe.
Same for ETH.
If 2400 is only temporarily broken and then quickly recovered, it might be a false breakout.
But if after breaking down it can't reclaim that level on the rebound, then around 2100 must be watched.
$ZEC even more so.
It has surged from around 800 to over 1300, nearly doubling in two weeks.
This kind of market easily creates an illusion:
"It's so strong, how could it fall?"
It's precisely at times like this that I won't chase.
I prefer to wait for the market to wash out the chips.
So my current strategy is actually very simple:
Don't guess the bottom, don't chase shorts, wait for a rebound.
If the rebound is weak, short.
If the rebound is strong, wait.
As long as the structure isn't broken, don't panic sell; if the structure really breaks, don't stubbornly hold on because you can't bear to stop loss.
Tonight there's also CPI.
Then there's FOMC coming up.
The real big volatility may not have started yet.
The most important thing now is not to judge how far BTC can fall, but to avoid using up all your bullets before the real market moves arrive. #OKX星球话题来啦 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $UNITREE
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1. The Three Core Reasons for the Decline
1. Valuation Bubble Overextension — Increasingly Overpriced
UNITREE is the perpetual contract for Yushi Technology (A-share 688836) stock, which is inherently "not cheap":
• A-share issuance price at ¥150.80, with a PE ratio as high as 219 times, far exceeding the typical 30-60 times range in the robotics industry
• After entering the crypto space, an additional layer of emotional speculative premium was added, with the peak market cap exceeding $30 billion
• The price surged from $60 to $155 (8/4-8/19), indicating an extremely overheated market and a valuation correction following the fade of speculative hype
2. Sharp Drop in Underlying Stock + Contract Correlation
This is the most direct trigger. The UNITREE contract is highly correlated with the underlying stock:
• After the stock’s listing, it surged 5 times on the first day but then continuously declined, with a market cap evaporation of about ¥220 billion
• On a certain trading day, the stock opened down 4%, volume ratio soared to 5.41, order ratio was -83.54%, institutional funds heavily sold at the open, causing the contract to quickly drop to around $80
• Insufficient fundamental support: Q1 net profit excluding non-recurring items dropped 52.55% YoY, and the H1 performance outlook remains downward, breaking the "high growth" speculative narrative
3. Derivatives Capital Structure Bearish — Leverage Liquidation Amplifies Decline
The leverage mechanism of perpetual contracts accelerates and magnifies the decline:
• Funding rate turned negative: short positions have lower holding costs, institutions shorted at high valuations, continuously suppressing rebounds
• Negative funding rate expanded to 7.7 times, short crowding surged
• Once the price breaks down, quantitative stop-loss → forced liquidation → market maker hedging triggers a chain reaction; with UNITREE’s already thin liquidity, a few sell orders can break through, creating a negative feedback spiral
• High leverage (up to 125x) causes long position liquidations, further driving the decline
2. Essence: Valuation correction after speculative hype fades, combined with derivatives leverage liquidation, not a complete fundamental collapse (Yushi remains the first humanoid robot company listed on the A-share market, with long-term logic still intact).