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Right now, both Bitcoin and Ethereum are playing dead, all waiting for the US September CPI data. August inflation was 3.4%, with the market expecting it to rise to 3.6% in September, driven by oil prices. However, the core CPI is only 2.5%. The midterm elections are in November, and historically, the Federal Reserve rarely raises rates in the month before an election. This CPI report is the litmus test for rate hike expectations. Ethereum is consolidating above 2500; with moderate core inflation, this consolidation can continue; if it spikes, it will face pressure first. Let's wait for tonight's data release. #SeptemberCPI announced tonight, Fed rate hike divergence awaits resolution $BTC fell 3.22% across the entire market in 24 hours, yet the top gainers list is dominated by a series of small sectors with a maximum market cap of only $130 million. Farcaster, Clanker, and Launchpad point to the same trend: on-chain social plus one-click token issuance has been revived for speculation, and Pre-IPO tokenization is also a fresh target sought by the same group. Where is the money coming from? Look at stablecoins. USDT market cap dropped 0.02% in 24 hours, with no new issuance and no new funds entering OTC. The fear and greed index has fallen from 71 a week ago to 62, indicating sentiment is retreating, and the heat is concentrated only in a few small pools. This is a relocation of existing funds, moving from mainstream to small caps seeking elasticity. My judgment is that this rotation won't last long; it is short-term speculation within a weak market, not yet a season for altcoins. The end signal is seen in the Farcaster and Clanker sectors: their 24-hour gains have both turned negative, and the top of the leaderboard has changed themes, marking the end of this round. We need to wait for USDT market cap to turn to new issuance and the fear and greed index to return above 71 before new money can take over. In the market, Bitcoin is still oscillating above support. CPI data will be released tonight, and the market may experience significant volatility, so caution is needed. The larger trend remains in a corrective phase, with right-side confirmation ongoing, and structural support still above 75,000. U.S. Treasury yields have declined and adjusted over the past two days, which has eased upward pressure on U.S. stocks and Bitcoin. With the midterm elections approaching, asset performance generally tends to be less favorable at this time.
On a smaller scale, Bitcoin is also moving on the right side, confirming support above 81,000. It's difficult to break higher as there is a lot of trapped supply above. To initiate a second upward move, a deep pullback is needed first. Patience.#Rebound without volume, has the capital pattern really shifted? The data gives a mixed answer.
On October 13, the Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of $21.47 million, with BlackRock and Fidelity products contributing the main buying, ending the continuous outflow state. The capital direction showed a turning point, but the overall volume was small, belonging to institutional tentative absorption. Ethereum simultaneously turned positive, with only $10,100 inflow, after ten consecutive trading days of continuous outflow, the selling pressure temporarily stopped, and the increment is almost negligible. Meanwhile, SOL funds continued to bleed, with large net outflows for two consecutive days, indicating the previously expected capital resilience does not exist.
Currently, the market only has a slight partial capital return and has not welcomed large-scale incremental entry. The ETF capital flow after the U.S. stock market opens tonight is the key to verifying whether this round of recovery can continue. 84000 is an important resistance level. If capital inflow can continue, it is expected to attempt to break through this position; if buying quickly fades, this small recovery rally will stop here.
$BTC $ETH $SOL CPI night, don't just focus on the numbers
Tonight's CPI, the real suspense isn't about the year-over-year percentage points, but that funds have long since gone their separate ways.
$BTC: On-chain support, institutions hesitant.
Coinbase premium turns negative, institutions are cashing out; but the number of addresses holding 100–1000 coins on-chain hits a new high, with whales buying over 80,000 coins in three weeks. There's support at the bottom, but chasing highs is weak. If core CPI is 0.2%, BTC could reach 84,000–85,000; if 0.3%, the 81,000 support will be further tested.
$ETH: Shorts paying the price, waiting for ETF turnaround.
Spot ETFs saw outflows exceeding 500 million last week, BlackRock reduced nearly 500 million. But leverage ratio dropped to a seven-month low, funding rates turned negative, raising short position costs. If support holds, short covering could trigger a rebound; the premise is ETF stops bleeding first, which hasn't happened yet.
Gold: Speculation retreats, allocation advances.
Futures longs withdraw, but gold ETFs continue to attract funds, with record net inflows in Q3; central banks have increased holdings for 23 consecutive months, September's increase is the largest this year.
Different buyers, different patience: BTC relies on whales, gold on central banks. Don't bet on data, bet on fund divergence. BTC waits for institutions to return, ETH waits for ETFs to stop bleeding, gold has solid logic underpinning it.
#SeptemberCPI announced tonight, Fed rate hike divergence awaits resolution
#BTC spot ETF outflows again, can institutional buying warm up?
#TradingVoice: Your experience deserves to be heardIn the past week, BTC fell by 3.82%, but gold, which has always been considered a safe-haven asset, also dropped by 0.96%. Both "safe-haven assets" weakened simultaneously—where exactly did the money go? Let's start with the news. Today's three data points: BTC is currently priced at $82,444.3 (down 3.82% over the past week), gold futures at $4,176.0 (down 0.96% intraday, spot price $4,159.90), and the US Dollar Index at 102.49 (down 0.09% intraday); meanwhile, US spot ETFs have seen a net outflow of approximately $696.8 million over the last 5 trading days. Notably, the dollar has not strengthened significantly, but both gold and BTC are falling—this indicates that the selling pressure is not coming from the "dollar appreciation" channel. Looking at the impact on capital flows: the price drivers for gold and BTC are completely different—gold's core buying comes from central bank gold purchases, real interest rates, and safe-haven demand; BTC's core marginal buying comes from spot ETFs and risk budgets. When both decline simultaneously, it usually means one of two things: either the market is concentrating on liquidity withdrawal (cash demand rises, and almost all assets are sold), or gold is taking profits after a prior rally while BTC is passively deleveraging. Currently, the situation is closer to the second scenario—gold has retreated from above $4,300, while BTC is weakening amid accelerating ETF net outflows. Implications for BTC: this shows that the "safe-haven narrative" did not support BTC this time. The logic over the past few months was that "gold and BTC are both inflation-hedging assets," but when risk budgets contract, the market alsoRegarding the current continuous decline of $SNDK, my personal view is that concerns are triggered by domestic storage competition, but a technological breakthrough does not mean immediate large-scale commercialization, nor does it directly replace SanDisk's products. Moreover, its own fundamentals are also strong, including $MU, coupled with increased volatility caused by CPI and interest rate expectations putting pressure on tech stocks. These are all within expectations. At that time, making this trade was indeed impulsive, leading to this mysterious operation. Next, I will watch whether its support level at 1400 will be broken, followed by an average price pull-up. You can also wait for the earnings report data on the 29th at the end of the month to make a choice. Those trapped in the position, don't be afraid. I personally believe SanDisk's earnings data will exceed high expectations. This is my personal opinion! For reference only #BTC spot ETF sees net outflow again, can institutional buying rebound?
The boss has something to say
BTC spot ETF funds weakened again. On October 9, there was an inflow of 21.13 million, but by October 12, there was a net outflow of 65.4 million, all from BlackRock IBIT, with the other 11 products unchanged. Previously, from October 7 to 8, there was a cumulative outflow of 731 million. ETH spot ETF had a net outflow of 85.4 million on the same day, with the two product types totaling a net outflow of 151 million in one day.
I believe institutional buying is unlikely to rebound in the short term. The reason is that the outflow is concentrated in IBIT, indicating it is not a widespread reduction but redemption pressure on a single product. ETH is weaker, with continuous outflows and inherently insufficient buying power.
My long position at 82,800 was stopped out today; I am now flat waiting for CPI. No chasing highs or panic selling; I won’t catch a falling knife before the direction is clear. The CPI release will show inflation and interest rate expectations; if the data is hawkish, ETF redemptions may continue. If dovish, funds may have a chance to flow back.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
Short term looks volatile, mid-term waiting for signals. Set stop losses properly, don’t hold on.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; positions must have stop losses set. Good luck.#Strive增持3311枚BTC，高息融资能否持续？
Bitcoin treasury company Strive (ASST) purchased 3,311 BTC at an average price of about $84,500 between October 5 and 9, raising its holdings to 32,773 BTC, valued at approximately $2.7 billion. This is the largest single increase since the Semler merger in January.
The key lies in the source of funds. Strive mainly relies on SATA perpetual preferred stock financing, currently yielding 13%-14%, and has launched a new class of SATS preferred stock aiming to raise $500 million with a fixed dividend rate of 15%, subordinated to SATA.
The core contradiction is: financing costs are rigid, Bitcoin returns are not. Dividends of 13%-15% must be paid in cash. The company currently holds about $310 million in cash, but if all SATS are issued, the annual dividend obligation alone would reach $75 million.
More worrisome is the dilution effect. Total holdings grew by 11.2%, but the coin amount per common share increased by only 1.7%—most of the growth was diluted by the new preferred stock.
Whether the flywheel can continue depends on two conditions: Bitcoin’s long-term compound returns remain stably above 13%-15%, and the stock trading premium is maintained. Once the premium narrows and issuance becomes more expensive, the pace of buying coins slows, and the market compresses the premium again—this is the natural reflexivity of treasury companies.$BTC $ETH $ZEC Brother Maji's "BTC short + ETH long + HYPE short" combination looks like a hedge on the surface, but in essence, it's still a high-leverage tough hold. The BTC short position's profit expanding indicates the short-term bearish judgment hit the rhythm; however, the HYPE short position has an unrealized loss exceeding four million, barely surviving on funding fees. If the short squeeze continues, the risk will rapidly escalate. The ETH long position is still at a loss, and its direction conflictsSaylor said Bitcoin will return above 100,000
He said this on Bloomberg TV.
The exact words were that the bull market has just begun.
His exact words were:
He said the coin price bottomed slightly below 60,000.
In the coming years, it will rise 20% to 30% annually.
In plain language:
The premise of this statement is that someone keeps buying.
He plans to issue more credit securities to buy.
MSCI will decide something this Friday.
They might remove Strategy from the global index.
If removed, the money tracking the index will have to sell passively.
A company that relies on issuing bonds to buy coins,
if kicked out of the index, its financing costs will rise.
This is more worth watching than short-term coin price fluctuations.
#BTC spot ETF sees net outflow again, can institutional buying recover?
$BTCLet's talk about tonight's CPI and give partners a brief overview!
First, tonight's scenario is the opposite of the past two years: the Federal Reserve is not cutting rates but raising them — on September 16, it just raised by 25bp to 3.75%-4.00%.
Unanimously approved, Williams and Collins are still signaling another rate hike within the year. The logic is not "low inflation → rate cut → rally," but "high inflation → tightening → pressure on the crypto market."
Market consensus: overall CPI month-over-month 0.4% → 0.6%, year-over-year 3.4% → 3.6%-3.7%, driven by gasoline (September average price $4.33/gallon at a record high), fully priced in. The only decisive factor is core CPI month-over-month, expected at 0.2%, with institutions divided between 0.16%-0.24%.
≤0.2% would confirm a pause in October and cool down rate hike expectations for December; ≥0.3% would indicate energy costs passing through to airfare and bring October rate hikes back on the table.
BTC current price 83,200-83,600, down 34% from the all-time high, with three concerns: ETF net outflow about $450 million in October, ETH outflows for 9-10 consecutive days;
10-year US Treasury yield at 5.2%-5.3%, DXY at 102.5 hitting an 18-month high; correlation with S&P at 81%, tonight ASML and tomorrow TSMC will simultaneously test AI sentiment.
Asymmetric odds: 45% probability matches expectations but already priced in, no profit; softer outcome (20%) is the real positive, targeting 84,000-87,400 short squeeze zone;
Above expectations (25%) targets 82,218-81,300; significantly higher (10%) breaks 80,100 triggering about $600 million long liquidation at 79,269.
Timing: at 20:30, avoid trading during the first three minutes of spikes; from 20:35-21:00 watch US Treasury and DXY to set direction; 21:30 US stock market open sets the tone. Followed by PPI, Fed's Waller speech, and FOMC on October 27-28.
The biggest risk is not the data but many still using the old rate cut script to go long. Position management takes priority over directional judgment. #九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解 #九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解
Overall CPI: MoM +0.6%, YoY 3.6% (previous 3.4%, mainly due to rising oil prices)
• Core CPI (excluding energy and food, more focused on by the Fed): MoM +0.2%, YoY 2.5% (previous YoY 2.4%)
Hawkish (Collins, Barkin, Harker)
Viewpoint: Energy price increases carry transmission risks; AI-related investments, transportation, accommodation, and service prices are sticky; inflation decline is not solid enough, another 25bp hike is necessary before year-end to prevent inflation rebound.
In short: Better to hike once more to avoid inflation becoming entrenched again.
Neutral (represented by Williams)
Viewpoint: Acceptable to have one more hike this year, but it depends on core services; should not be led by one-off supply shocks like oil prices; does not support consecutive hikes, nor a sustained hiking cycle; decisions should be based on subsequent data series, not a single month’s CPI.
Implied dovish logic (market trading benchmark)
Current CME FedWatch pricing: about 77% probability of no change in October, meaning the mainstream expectation is likely to hold steady in October, keeping the possibility of a hike in December.
Underlying understanding: If price increases are purely gasoline-related, it is an external supply shock, not overheating domestic demand, so immediate hikes may not be necessary; but if core CPI, housing, and core services rise above expectations, it will be interpreted as endogenous inflation, strengthening hawkish influence. $ETH $BTC #September CPI announced tonight, Fed rate hike divergence to be resolved
About 80% of the market has priced in no rate hike in October; if CPI meets expectations, there’s no story. The real danger lies in the chain of repricing after an unexpected CPI.
BTC ETF saw over 700 million outflows in the first week, the negative sentiment has been fully absorbed.
Core CPI at 0.2% → the market realizes it has overreacted, a rebound could come anytime.
Core CPI above 0.3% → the narrative breaks down, first breaking 80,000, then watching 77.5–75k. US September CPI will be released tonight (Beijing time 20:30), expected year-on-year 3.6% (previous 3.4%), core 2.5%. Williams said there may be one more rate hike this year, with about a 77% probability of no change in October.
CPI higher than expected:
US stocks under pressure, growth stocks weaker
BTC likely to fall back to test 81,000 support (risk appetite + liquidity sensitive)
Gold falls first then fluctuates (real yields rise)
CPI lower than expected:
US stocks rebound
BTC more likely to challenge resistance above 84,000
Gold benefits from yield decline and weaker dollar
Current reference levels:
$BTC: support at 81,000, resistance at 84,000-84,500, effective breakout targets 86,500+
Gold $XAU: support at 4100-4120, resistance at 4217-4250, breaking 4100 may retest near 4000
The data itself is important, but more critical is the reaction of US Treasury yields and the dollar after the release. The market currently prices in no change in October and possibly one more hike in December; any surprise will quickly revise expectations.
#九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解 $BTC smart capital won't exit at this time; data shows only one-tenth of the capital exited due to costs around 67,000, and this capital just reached the repayment period. The rest of the capital is around 70,000, and at this time, Bitcoin won't consider exiting unless it reaches 100,000. It is predicted that at the 100,000 mark, there will likely be short-term profit-taking to flatten positions. As for the later trend, it will depend on market expectations and policy factors. Because the higher it goes, the more new highs it will reach.$ASTER
Perpetual trading has become one of crypto’s most competitive sectors. Aster is trying to compete in that environment, where execution, liquidity and user experience matter more than flashy promises. OKX lists ASTER among its active spot markets. The real test is whether traders continue using the platform when market excitement cools and competition becomes even stronger.$ETH price surged to around 2530 this afternoon, which startled me. That candlestick pierced the previous high but closed back down. The liquidity above was swept out, and then it fell back. The surge up was quick, and the drop back was just as fast; the 1-hour candlestick formed a Pin Bar.
The recent drop downward was the same situation. The 15-minute candlestick pierced the previous low but closed back up. This candlestick left a lower shadow, indicating a false breakout sweeping liquidity below. Breaking the previous low did not bring more selling pressure, and the price quickly recovered above 2496.
Looking at the 1-hour candlestick, the price has been consolidating. The highs are getting lower, the lows are rising, and the Bollinger Bands are narrowing. On smaller timeframes, liquidity is being swept on both sides; the market has not formed a one-sided trend, and volatility has slowed down accordingly.
Switching to the 4-hour timeframe, the current price is holding at the key 2500 level. During the dip, volume has been decreasing, and the bears have not opened up space. The daily EMA50 is also supporting below. So, I subjectively lean bullish; the larger timeframe support is taking effect here, and the market is expected to stabilize first and then move higher.
$BTC $SOL #九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解 #Lumentum光通信业务扩张，订单表现待揭晓
Many people might not have heard of Lumentum, but in AI optical communications, it is a company that truly delivers.
Its CEO said in Tokyo a few days ago that optical components are completely sold out, with production capacity booked through early 2029. What are these used for? They are the optical modules in data centers that make data fly quickly between servers. Without them, AI data centers are just piles of scrap metal.
But guess what? Even though production capacity is sold out, the stock price only rose 0.39% that day. Why? Because in the same week, OpenAI's revenue guidance was cut by 20 billion, Firmus withdrew its IPO, and the financial side of AI has been repeatedly dampened. The supply side says they can't keep up, but the demand side is hesitating. This divergence is very clear.
What impact does this have?
First, money is still being poured into AI infrastructure, and hardware orders are real. Lumentum's production capacity booked through 2029 indicates that data center construction hasn't stopped. The hardware costs for miners and AI computing projects won't drop in the short term. But this is the fundamental support for the computing power track, not a short-term speculation.
Second, the market's attitude toward AI is changing. It used to be that anything related to AI would rise, but now even companies with sold-out capacity see little stock price movement. This shows that investors are starting to focus on actual returns, not just presentations. AI concept coins in the crypto space will see even more differentiation. Those with real computing power and product implementation will survive, while pure storytellers will be eliminated.
What do you think? $BTC $2500 worth of ETH, which side are you betting on tonight?
ETF has had outflows for 10 consecutive days, BitMine's buying has stopped, ETH/BTC fell below 0.03, 2400 was pierced twice—tonight's CPI could be the needle that decides whether you profit or get liquidated.
First, look at the surface: after the double dip at 2400, it’s grinding near 2500, funding rates have normalized, but momentum is still bearish, institutional buying has stopped. 2500 is only suitable for reducing positions or watching, not for opening new ones.
Spot and perpetual contracts are squeezed between 2490–2530. Your 2500 is almost today's midpoint. A week ago it was still at 2720, two weeks ago two spikes hit just above 2400. There was no support above 2700, there was bottom-fishing at 2400 but no trend capital took over. This is a weak shakeout after deleveraging, not a main uptrend.
First thing: ETFs are running, BitMine has finished buying—the clearest buying force is exiting.
The US spot ETH ETF has had about 10 consecutive trading days of outflows as of 10/12, roughly $700–800 million outflow since late September. On 10/13, a slight net inflow of about $24.8 million was driven by Grayscale staking mini trusts, just a stopgap, not a reversal. ETH ETFs still have net outflows over the past 30 days, while BTC ETFs have net inflows of about $2 billion in the same period.
BitMine (Tom Lee) holds about 6.03 million ETH, about 4.9% of circulating supply, with about 5.07 million staked. He said he stopped buying at 5%, and the company also said they basically finished buying. This round’s clearest treasury buying is exiting.
In plain language:
Institutions have stopped buying, ETFs are bleeding, who are you still waiting to catch the bag?
Second thing: ETH/BTC fell below 0.03, going long ETH is essentially going long a beta weaker than the market.
ETH/BTC fell below 0.03 on 10/12, the first time since August 19. With your current 2500 ETH and BTC around 83,000, the ratio is exactly at 0.03. ETH outperformed BTC in Q3, but in October funds are moving back to the more liquid BTC.
Going long ETH is not going long Ethereum itself, it’s going long a beta weaker than the market.
With treasury buying stopped and ETFs still bleeding, ETH lacks conditions for an independent rally.
Before ETH/BTC reclaims and holds above 0.03, prioritize risk budget on BTC, keep ETH as a satellite position.
Third thing: tonight’s CPI is the real trade.
Federal funds rate is 3.75%–4.00%. On September 16, a unanimous 25bp hike was the first since 2023. The October 7 minutes: most officials think another hike this year is appropriate, inflation risks are upward. The market prices zero chance of a rate cut.
Consensus for 20:30 tonight:
Overall CPI YoY 3.6% (previous 3.4%), MoM about 0.6%
Core CPI YoY 2.4%–2.5%, MoM about 0.2%
The overall jump is priced in, the trade focuses on the core. If core YoY rises to 2.5% or MoM ≥ 0.3%, the probability of an October hike will be repriced upward from 20%, yields and USD will move first, ETH will be dumped. If core MoM ≤ 0.2% and YoY stays at 2.4%, shorts will cover.
Bull vs bear, you decide:
On one side:
Double dip at 2400, shadows on 10/8 and 10/13 were bought back
Funding rate near zero, no crowded trades
Staking ratio about 34%, circulating supply thins
Interactive Brokers opens ETH staking, channels expanding
Still up 30–50% over 90 days, a pullback in a rebound
On the other side:
ETF outflows for 10 consecutive days, about $700–800 million
BitMine buying stopped, clearest treasury buying exited
ETH/BTC below 0.03, weaker than market
Net issuance of 778,000 ETH in 2026, burns cover only 2%, net inflation
Staking yield 3%–5%, US 10-year Treasury 5.1%–5.2%, no competition
Tonight’s CPI, if core beats expectations, ETH will be dumped
Trading strategy
If long, reduce half between 2540–2580 to lock in profits from the 10/13 spike. Before CPI, set stop loss at cost or below 2470, don’t let one data point turn unrealized gains into losses.
After data release, only trade on close confirmation, don’t chase the first spike.
To go long, conditions must be met:
4-hour close above 2550, then add if pullback to 2520 holds.
Stop loss below 2470.
First target 2620, second target 2700–2740. If daily close doesn’t reclaim 2580, treat as a retracement, exit at 2620, no big picture.
To go short, conditions must be met:
4-hour close below 2480, then enter again if rebound to 2500 fails.
Stop loss above 2530.
First target 2410, second target 2350. Only if daily close is below 2400, set targets to 2300/2250. Shorts above 2400 reduce at 2410.
Bottom fishing only for one pattern:
Pierce 2410–2430 again and close above 2450 within 15 minutes. Stop loss 2380. This is the third test, use half normal position size. If it doesn’t reclaim, accept it, don’t average down on the spike.
ETH now is like itself in 2025—
Weekly bull not dead, daily bear not over.
2500 is observation zone, 2400 is bull-bear boundary, 2580 is rebound true-false boundary.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC 【OP suddenly surges 20%, is Uniswap sending a red envelope to its old partner?】
$OP surged nearly 20% today, reaching a high of $0.162. The trigger was Uniswap's Unichain shifting to OP Enterprise; the testnet migration is already underway, and the mainnet is planned to switch on October 29. Uniswap is building its own L2, but now it’s handing production operations over to Optimism’s enterprise services, which is an interesting new development.
OP’s daily trading volume jumped from about $59 million the previous day to $158 million, showing clear increased activity. However, higher volume doesn’t mean all spot buying; after the price spike, it has already pulled back.
OP has risen about 60% in the past month. Besides Unichain, the market is also trading on expectations of protocol upgrades and a buyback starting in 2027. The issue is that adopting the OP Stack in the ecosystem doesn’t mean all on-chain revenue will flow into OP tokens.
I tend to first watch if the bulls can hold this rally rather than chasing after seeing a big green candle. Later, with the mainnet launch and buyback mechanism implementation, if real demand and token value capture keep pace, this rally might shift from speculation to fundamentals; otherwise, the positive news could just lead to a sell-off.There is a rather strange phenomenon; I wonder if everyone has noticed it.
$ETH ETH has been consolidating around 2500 for nearly two days.
Voices are everywhere in the community: a double bottom has formed, the market is stable, and it's a good time to buy the dip.
But looking at the larger cycle, the sentiment is more cautious. $BTC
This gentle consolidation phase can easily create a false impression of stabilization.
Many retail investors see that it has already dropped by 400 dollars and think "this is the bottom," choosing to enter and buy the dip.
The boiling frog effect often happens during such stages.
Remember this: a true major bottom rarely offers everyone a comfortable consolidation opportunity to buy the dip.
At this stage, don't rush to heavily bet on a direction; first observe the breakout choice after the consolidation. #高盛Q3业绩超预期，美银行财报现分化 #Korean stocks narrow rebound after sharp drop, can semiconductor buying continue? London Stock Exchange listing event, smart money sees the business boundaries clearly
Before the London session, many funds are re-evaluating the news of the London Stock Exchange listing. Smart money distinguishes clearly: The Core token itself is not listed on the London Stock Exchange; the listed product is 1VBS issued by Valour under DeFi Technologies, a BTC-collateralized ETP. The widely circulated "Core listing on the London Stock Exchange" is just promotional rhetoric and does not mean the token is directly traded.
This ETP is regulated by the UK FCA, backed by physical BTC, with Valour providing institutional cold storage, and delegated to the Core network to complete non-custodial staking, with an annualized yield of about 1.4%. Investors buying the product indirectly gain from BTC price fluctuations and staking rewards. The product will first open to professional investors in September 2025, and after obtaining permission in January 2026, it will be available to ordinary retail investors in the UK. Core only provides the underlying Satoshi-P technical support in the entire business.
Institutional funds are willing to access this staking infrastructure but avoid the narrative of directly buying tokens. Where would you place your order, and how would you set your stop loss?
$CORE $BTC $ETH $SOL Detailed analysis of ETH's decline in the past 24 hours
1. Macroeconomic factors
US inflation-related data was stronger than expected, leading the market to lower rate cut expectations. US Treasury yields rose, the dollar strengthened, and risk assets collectively came under pressure. BTC led the decline, while ETH showed higher volatility and a larger drop than Bitcoin.
2. Spot funds
ETH spot ETFs shifted from net inflows to continuous net outflows, with institutions reducing positions in phases; a large amount of profit-taking accumulated from previous rises, with whales moving ETH from cold wallets to exchanges to take profits. Market funds shifted to other hot sectors, with no new major positive catalysts in the Ethereum ecosystem, resulting in weak buying support.
3. Contract market (decline amplifier)
After the price broke below short-term key support levels, many short-term long positions stopped out and triggered forced liquidations. Forced liquidation sell orders continued to push prices lower, creating a negative cascade; funding rates turned negative, the contract market was dominated by shorts, and short-term long position confidence collapsed.
4. Technical pattern
Candlesticks broke below short-term moving averages, which turned from support into resistance. Multiple small rebounds failed to hold, with heavy selling pressure above; the RSI indicator declined, remaining in a weak zone, indicating insufficient momentum for a short-term long rebound.
5. Fundamentals
Layer2 and RWA narratives currently lack new catalysts, with no news stimulating new capital inflows. Previous positives have been priced in, and there is a lack of new stories to support price increases.
Key points to watch going forward: whether BTC can stop falling, whether ETF funds will return, and whether there is a short-term rebound opportunity caused by crowded short positions in contracts. #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 Brothers, a cycle every four years is not mysticism, it's a clock written in code!!
$BTC is teasing at over 80,000, and the group is starting to doubt the cycle again. Don't rush, first look at the underlying rules.
Satoshi fixed one rule: total supply 21 million, a block every 10 minutes, halving the reward every 210,000 blocks. Calculate: 210,000 × 10 minutes ≈ 3.99 years. So the "four-year cycle" is not made up by analysts, it's derived from the code.
Looking back, the rhythm matches perfectly:
2012 halving → surge to 1,000 → Mt. Gox crash
2016 halving → surge to 20,000 → deep bear market in 2018
2020 halving → surge to 69,000 → FTX collapse
2024 halving → 2025 peak at 126,000 → now a pullback grinding the bottom
October 2026, nearly a year since the peak retracement. Historically, this is called the "post-halving digestion period"—the most boring, the most cleansing, and also the most bottom-like.
Data also confirms: in the past 10 days, whales holding 10 to 10,000 coins quietly added over 40,000 coins; at the end of September, US spot ETF weekly inflows surged to 2.4 billion. Retail panicked and sold at a loss, big money is picking up bloodied chips.
The essence of the cycle is not technical, it's human nature: despair builds the bottom, hesitation drives the rise, mania marks the top, collapse ends it. IQ is no match for patience, prediction is no match for position size. Don't expect a V-shaped rebound; grinding the bottom is meant to wash out fast money.
The gears haven't stopped, the next cycle will follow the same rhythm
$BTC #BTC现货ETF再度净流出，机构买盘能否回暖？ #韩股急跌后反弹收窄，半导体买盘能否持续？ #Meta发布MuseWonder，股价涨超3%
🔥My first reaction when I saw this news: Oh.
It's not disrespect, I just really don't feel much.
An AI giant launches a new product, stock price rises, that's only natural. But if you think that means AI concept coins in the crypto world will also take off, I advise you to calm down first.
What's the current state of the market?
Bitcoin is stuck at 84,000, options volatility is at a five-year low, US Treasury yields at 5.6% are suppressing off-exchange funds. ETFs are still seeing outflows, and the tax season selling pressure isn't over.
Money is just lying in US Treasuries earning interest; who has the leisure to come to crypto to speculate on AI concept coins?
Meta's stock can rise, but on our side, if the market is down, it stays down. One product launch can't change the capital flow.
So don't get carried away.
Hold your spot positions steady, avoid contracts, keep your USDT.
Chasing AI concept coins at times like this is no different than throwing money away with your eyes closed.
Wait. Wait for this tax season to pass, wait for macro conditions to ease, then talk about opportunities.
Would you chase AI coins because of Meta's product? Be honest in the comments.Good news about the project, first check who benefits
For $ARB, I will first look at what exactly needs to be bought in a transaction. The transaction fees on Arbitrum One are paid in Ether, and ARB mainly serves a governance function. This means that an increase in on-chain transactions does not force users to buy ARB per transaction. The more prosperous the ecosystem, the more governance rights may be valued, but how this value is recognized by the market still requires concrete evidence. So when I see new highs in trading volume later, I will continue to ask: has the growth formed a sustained token demand? If this step is not clarified, there is still a gap between business activity and token price increase.
For $LDO, I will first check whose account the earnings are recorded in. Participating in staking through Lido grants stETH, which represents the staked assets and earnings; LDO serves governance functions. Therefore, an expansion in staking scale cannot be directly interpreted as each LDO holder receiving more interest. What I want to see more is how much protocol revenue the scale growth brings and how governance ultimately arranges this revenue. Simply looking at the increasing assets deposited is not enough to calculate the returns for token holders.
For $ONDO, I will first confirm what rights are obtained by buying it. The official definition of ONDO is a governance token. When studying it, I will not directly treat the earnings of the project's financial products as earnings for token holders. Good product sales are worth noting, but it is necessary to clarify: who receives the new income and through what mechanism do token holders benefit. This time, I prefer to follow the flow of money in my research and give less credit to vague statements like "the sector has good prospects."The CPI will be announced tonight. For detailed views, refer to the two previous quotes which have already explained everything clearly. To summarize simply, the outlook is rather pessimistic and bearish, expecting a somewhat hawkish deviation in the data. At this moment, the probability of a rate hike in October is 21.6%. Given the high oil prices in September, a CPI rebound is inevitable. The only point of contention is how strong the rebound will be—whether it meets expectations or exceeds them. Among the four figures, if two annual rates and one overall monthly rate final data are higher than the previous values but lower than expected, then the recent decline might be due to the market being overly pessimistic and oversold, and the data release could trigger a rebound. If the data exceeds expectations, then the US stock market might face a mass sell-off. As for data below expectations, I dare not even consider it, as it neither aligns with reality nor justifies adjustments to the Fed's rate expectations. Unless Trump really wants to prop up the US stock market again at this moment, but with the US-Iran situation and high oil prices looming, it’s somewhat difficult for the US stock market to rally further in the short term. He has no reason to pay more sunk costs when he is destined to lose in both houses; better to focus on work after the election. Among the four CPI figures, the most critical and currently the only expected value lower than the previous is the core monthly rate. If this data can truly be controlled, risk markets might not perform too badly tonight. In summary, from a broader perspective, the best outcome for tonight’s CPI and tomorrow night’s PPI is to allow the already peaking US Treasury yields to continue declining, so that risk markets can fundamentally improve. An overall monthly rate around 0.5% and a core monthly rate of 0.2% or lower is the most favorable combination for the bond market; core 0.1 Macro Perspective: Williams Rules Out Rate Hikes in 2027, Boosts Short-Term Sentiment
New York Fed President Williams stated that there is no need for further rate hikes in 2027, although he still maintains the stance that another rate hike may occur this year.
Interpretation: Williams' statement itself does not change the rate hike expectations for this year (October/December), but by explicitly ruling out a tightening path in 2027, it suggests that the current rate hike cycle is nearing its end. The market interprets this as a "forward liquidity inflection point" signal, weakening the dollar and boosting Asian stock markets. Bitcoin rose 1.5% to nearly $83,900 accordingly.
📊 Special Importance of CPI Data: The September FOMC minutes showed that 19 officials unanimously supported a rate hike in September, with most considering another hike before year-end as appropriate. The probability of a December hike has risen to about 70%. Tonight's CPI is the last key inflation data before the October meeting; if the data is below expectations, it may cool December rate hike expectations; if it exceeds expectations, it will reinforce pricing for "at least one more hike before year-end."
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #闪迪美光下跌，长鑫技术进展受关注 CPI will be released at 8:30 PM tonight, and the main focus for Bitcoin is just one data point: core CPI. $BTC
Core CPI for August is 2.4%, and the current expectation remains 2.4%. Everyone is watching whether the overall CPI will hit 3.7%, but that increase mainly comes from expensive oil, with Brent crude now at $106. What really determines Bitcoin's direction is the core CPI. $ZEC
If the core CPI rises above 2.5%, it means oil prices have started to seep into other areas. Shipping costs, wages, and various goods will gradually increase, making the Fed more confident to raise rates. U.S. Treasury yields hitting 5.3% and Bitcoin at 84,000 makes a downward move more likely. $ETH
If the core remains steady at 2.4%, then this round is just about oil. The Fed will most likely not raise rates at the end of the month, U.S. Treasuries can catch a breather, and Bitcoin has a chance to ease up.
The reason the Fed is so focused on the core CPI is because they were scared by the 1970s. In 1973, inflation quadrupled again. When inflation eased, the Fed slowly cut rates, thinking the problem was over. But oil prices seeped into everything, and when Iran was in turmoil in 1979, the second wave was even worse than the first. Rates were raised to 20% to finally contain it.
This time, Iran is leading again.
So tonight, don’t just look at the headline big number; go straight to the core CPI line. Whether it’s 2.4% or 2.5%, that 0.1 difference is the difference between Bitcoin going up or down. #九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解 Wednesday, 2026.10.14
The US stock market started to fluctuate yesterday, and Bitcoin followed suit. Tonight, the CPI data will be released, and tomorrow the PPI data. Let's see what expectations these two data points will create for the Federal Reserve and the market.
On October 13, Bitcoin ETF net inflow was 175 million, Ethereum ETF net inflow was 24.8 million.
Market Analysis
Currently, Bitcoin's market seems to still be waiting for tonight's CPI. US stock futures have already started to fall, and Bitcoin has been dragged down as well. However, a drop before the data release is usually a good sign, as there is often a possibility of a reversal after the announcement. The 84,000 level is now full of resistance, having failed to break through multiple times, which can be seen as a short-term right shoulder peak. Going forward, it may continue to fluctuate around the 81,000-84,000 range.
Crypto Fear and Greed Index: 55 (Neutral) The current price at 83297 is fluctuating close to the upper edge of the 400-day moving average. Bulls have defense around 81000, but the long positions with 10x leverage at 83639 form a clear resistance due to liquidation pressure. On the macro side, US Treasury yields are rising, the probability of higher interest rates is increasing, and there is no further easing of dollar liquidity, so risk assets lack direct drivers. Long liquidations in the past 24 hours amount to 592 million, indicating that some short-term chasing funds have been cleaned out but not fully released.
Just finished a trade climbing six floors, still sweating, so it’s not the time to chase at this position on the chart. With sentiment tense before the non-farm payrolls, if the volume does not break above 83600 to 83750, the price is more likely to pull back to fill the 81000 area. The current main strategy is to short in the 83600 to 83750 range, take profit at 81600, and set a stop loss above 84200.
If the price first retests 81000 to 81300 and stabilizes, then switching to long is not too late, with take profit at 83100 and stop loss at 80400.
$BTC
#闪迪美光下跌，长鑫技术进展受关注
@OKX星球 Fund managers’ stated 5.9% switching point for the 10Y Treasury is useful precisely because the yield is still around 5.2% and no broad rotation has followed. It frames 6% as a decision threshold, not a forecast. With 19% already reallocating, positioning may change before consensus does, while the timing remains uncertain.
#BofAStockBondDivide $ZEC This order book is really interesting. This morning, the main force used a 3 million spot trade to cross, directly pulling the price from 1220 to 1280. The order book was pitifully thin, but then the main force threw in nearly 10 million spot, and the price surprisingly did not go down. Interesting CPI will be released at 8:30 PM tonight, and the main focus for Bitcoin is just one data point: core CPI. $BTC
Core CPI for August is 2.4%, and the current expectation remains 2.4%. Everyone is watching whether the overall CPI will hit 3.7%, but that increase mainly comes from expensive oil, with Brent crude now at $106. What really determines Bitcoin's direction is the core CPI. $ZEC
If the core CPI rises above 2.5%, it means oil prices have started to seep into other areas. Shipping costs, wages, and various goods will gradually increase, making the Fed more confident to raise rates. U.S. Treasury yields hitting 5.3% and Bitcoin at 84,000 makes a downward move more likely. $ETH
If the core remains steady at 2.4%, then this round is just about oil. The Fed will most likely not raise rates at the end of the month, U.S. Treasuries can catch a breather, and Bitcoin has a chance to ease up.
The reason the Fed is so focused on the core CPI is because they were scared by the 1970s. In 1973, inflation quadrupled again. When inflation eased, the Fed slowly cut rates, thinking the problem was over. But oil prices seeped into everything, and when Iran was in turmoil in 1979, the second wave was even worse than the first. Rates were raised to 20% to finally contain it.
This time, Iran is leading again.
So tonight, don’t just look at the headline big number; go straight to the core CPI line. Whether it’s 2.4% or 2.5%, that 0.1 difference is the difference between Bitcoin going up or down. #九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解 Saylor said Bitcoin will return above 100,000
He said this on Bloomberg TV.
The exact words were that the bull market has just begun.
His exact words were:
He said the coin price bottomed slightly below 60,000.
In the coming years, it will rise 20% to 30% annually.
In plain language:
The premise of this statement is that someone keeps buying.
He plans to issue more credit securities to buy.
MSCI will decide something this Friday.
They might remove Strategy from the global index.
If removed, the money tracking the index will have to sell passively.
A company that relies on issuing bonds to buy coins,
if kicked out of the index, its financing costs will rise.
This is more worth watching than short-term coin price fluctuations.
#BTC现货ETF再度净流出，机构买盘能否回暖？
#$BTC When the name Williams came up, my first reaction wasn’t about a rate hike, but his phrase "Don’t rely on a single data point."
To translate, it means no matter what the CPI shows tonight, don’t get too excited.
The key is actually the core CPI, expected to drop from 0.3% to 0.2%.
Don’t underestimate this 0.1; it’s the number the Fed cares about most.
And he said price pressures are concentrated in AI and energy, not spreading elsewhere.
This puts pressure on the dollar but eases the tone a bit for risk assets.
But note, he just doesn’t want to accept the 2027 pricing, not that he wants to ease monetary policy.
So this move is more of a sentiment boost, not a trend boost.
As long as core CPI tonight doesn’t exceed 0.2, $BTC will likely get some breathing room.
If it exceeds, all previous talk is for nothing.
Focus on this number first; everything else is secondary.
#九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解
#$BTC CPI opens tonight, three coins with three different moods.⏳
$BTC 83600, +1%
Semiconductors have crashed everywhere, yet it quietly turned green. ETF net outflows last week hit a three-and-a-half-month high, institutions are redeeming, but the price bounced back from 82900—there’s buying at the low level, and it doesn’t look like retail volume. Harmak was hawkish during the day, but tonight’s CPI is the judge. 83600 is holding the 40x short liquidation line, volume has shrunk and moved sideways for three days, once the data is out, it will be either a big bullish or bearish candle, one has to happen.📈
$HYPE 81.062, -3.9%
Slid from 85 down to 81 with no decent rebound in between. 97% revenue buyback sounds strong, but revenue has declined for four consecutive quarters, buybacks rely on profits, not cash flow. After breaking 85, short-term funds withdrew first. Whether 81 can hold depends on CPI: if data is good, it will bounce faster than BTC; if data is bad, it will fall harder.🎢
$ZEC 1192, -5.7%
Just bounced 9% a few days ago, today it gave it all back and even dropped further. The privacy coin script: up one day, down three days, no fundamentals, only sentiment. Once the 1200 whole number breaks, no one knows who will catch it below. In a rate hike cycle, it’s more of a volatility tool, not a portfolio asset, don’t fall in love with it.💔
This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice. #九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #韩股急跌后反弹收窄，半导体买盘能否持续？ Where is Tesla's next phase of growth?
I believe $TSLA's next phase of growth comes from service revenue. Take $AAPL as an example: after Apple sells the phone, there are ongoing software services like the App Store, iCloud, Apple Music, etc., that provide continuous income.
Tesla is in a similar situation; FSD and Robotaxi are the key focuses.
Regarding FSD
There are already nearly 1.5 million paying FSD users among Tesla owners. This is built on a large amount of road data and a user base, which is not as easy to replicate as car manufacturing.
Regarding Robotaxi
In fact, many driverless taxis are already in use domestically. Tesla's Robotaxi technology definitely has no issues; the main challenges are regulatory and safety concerns that require some time.
Once implemented, owners can drive their cars during the day and add their cars to the Robotaxi network at night to run rideshare services autonomously, or even operate 24/7 automatically.
Current issues
Expectations for FSD and Robotaxi are already partially reflected in the stock price.
At the same time, facing price wars from domestic car manufacturers, Tesla definitely cannot compete on sales volume with domestic cars, and sales volume will indirectly affect the number of users for service revenue.
Therefore, there is a significant divergence of extreme views between bullish and bearish perspectives.The earnings reports of two major investment banks show a stark contrast, with BTC stuck at 83500 waiting for CPI🔥
Goldman Sachs' Q3 earnings far exceeded expectations, with revenue and profits soaring, and stock trading revenue surging 72%. The more volatile the market, the more it profits.
In contrast, JPMorgan's performance fell short of expectations, with fixed income trading revenue shrinking and significant losses in securities investments.
The banking sector as a whole has dropped over 8% in the past three months. The market is grappling with three issues: the future direction of interest rates, the impact of AI on the banking industry, and geopolitical risks. Funds are generally cautious and reluctant to take heavy positions.
This divergence has also spread to the crypto market. Goldman Sachs' increased trading volume indicates frequent fund turnover, but funds have not stayed in the banking sector.
BTC is currently stuck at 83500, which is the key support level this week. Holding here will prevent a drop back into the volatile 60,000-80,000 range. The market is waiting for CPI to break the deadlock. #九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解 #高盛Q3业绩超预期，美银行财报现分化
⚠️This is only a personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice #ASML Earnings Preview: EUV Orders Become Key Focus Inflation data released, watching if funds simultaneously choose multiple currencies
Bulls await inflation benefits to materialize, but institutional funds continued to withdraw on October 12. SoSoValue data shows a net outflow of $65.4 million from the US spot BTC ETF and a net outflow of $85.4 million from the ETH spot ETF. Fund outflows do not necessarily mean the market will decline, but indicate the current rebound lacks incremental buying support. Tonight, PPI and CPI will be released consecutively, with market expectations of overall inflation rising and a possible slowdown in core inflation month-over-month.
No prediction on price direction, only tracking three groups of fund behaviors: whether core CPI is below market expectations; during BTC rally phases, whether ETH and SOL can simultaneously receive fund support; and whether prices can hold the range after the initial pulse. If only BTC surges alone while other assets continue to be avoided by funds, it should not be judged as a full recovery. Short-term sentiment is data-driven, and market continuation depends on the strength of subsequent incremental fund inflows.
At what price levels would you set your limit orders and stop losses to respond to tonight's data?
$BTC $ETH $SOL "Why is ETH lagging, and what does it take to overtake?"
Recently, $ETH has consistently underperformed $BTC, with the core issue still being capital. BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of about $679 million in the week, while ETH ETFs have experienced nine consecutive weeks of outflows, totaling $635 million in October. ETH ETFs have a higher share of volume, so redemptions bring more direct selling pressure, and fundamental improvements have yet to outpace capital withdrawal.
ETH briefly outperformed in September, but entering October, U.S. Treasury yields rose and rate cut bets cooled, leading to a contraction in market risk appetite. Capital prioritized withdrawing from high-beta assets; BTC, with its safe-haven label, proved more resilient, while ETH, being more growth-oriented, saw its relative valuation decline.
For ETH to regain leadership, at least one of the following is needed:
1. Macro liquidity easing, risk appetite warming, and capital returning to DeFi, L2, and NFT sectors;
2. Strong catalysts within ETH itself, such as upgrade implementation, staking and on-chain revenue exceeding expectations, or regulatory tailwinds;
3. A shift in trading focus from macro risk aversion back to crypto ecosystem rotation.
In summary: ETH is not without opportunity, but capital and narrative have yet to resonate. Holding support and awaiting catalysts is more critical than chasing a rebound.
This is only a market observation and does not constitute investment advice.
$BTC $ETH
#BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ #九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 The big test at 8:30 tonight, releasing the CPI year-over-year and month-over-month rates, how should we react in the short term (5-30 minutes)?
The year-over-year rate itself won't trigger an instant price jump at the open; it's used for qualitative assessment:
Short term 0–30 minutes
After traders get the month-over-month rate, they immediately look at the year-over-year rate for qualitative judgment:
1. Month-over-month rate is high, but year-over-year continues to decline → Market interpretation: short-term volatility, the long-term trend of inflation is still falling, the bearish impact on gold will be discounted;
2. Month-over-month rate is high + year-over-year rate rises simultaneously → Double hawkish, the trend is more likely to continue.
Additional important reminder
There is a special case: data extremely deviates from expectations (for example, core month-over-month rate 0.4% or 0.0%)
Such extreme data will directly rewrite Fed expectations, and the impact will extend to 2–5 trading days, at which point the weight of the year-over-year rate will significantly increase, leading to a sustained one-sided market for several days.
Brothers, are you also closely watching the big test at 8:30 tonight???
$ETH #九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解 A strategy for quickly growing small capital｜Deconstruction of index options trading strategy
Many people ask: What exactly should small capital rely on to grow quickly?
Theoretically, to quickly scale up principal, you can't do without "heavy positions + leverage."
But this approach has a fatal flaw: if the chosen asset is wrong or the directional judgment is off, it goes straight to zero.
So the core of this strategy is to first limit the asset:The most frustrating part of this round isn't the ups and downs, but the rhythm.😵
Just when you think the weakness is confirmed, the shorts get pulled up sharply; the more it falls, the braver you are to add shorts, and the rebound immediately comes to squeeze them.
Looking at the data:
1-hour liquidations total 5.6 million, shorts 4.28 million, about 76%;
4-hour liquidations 20.19 million, shorts 14.39 million, 71%;
24-hour $BTC liquidations 32.85 million, shorts account for 78.7%; $ETH liquidations 28.98 million, shorts account for 63.5%.🔥
BTC shorts are being liquidated more harshly; this wave looks more like a targeted hunt on shorts.
The path is clear: price pulls up → shorts close positions → buybacks push price → trigger next batch of forced liquidations. Self-reinforcing, the higher it goes, the more it squeezes shorts.🚀
But a rebound does not equal a reversal. Spot ETFs saw weekly outflows of 679 million, ETH outflows of 542 million; Coinbase premium dropped to July lows, spreads even turned negative at one point. Buying pressure mainly comes from passive derivative buybacks, not active spot buying. The Korean stock market fell 5.5%, AI confidence is shaken, and if tonight's CPI is hawkish, volatility will only increase.⚠️
Next, just watch: can the pullback hold?
BTC: 81,300–82,000, near the 400-day moving average, holding this is effective.
ETH: 2,480–2,495, previous low at 2,494 must not be lost.
#九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #韩股急跌后反弹收窄，半导体买盘能否持续？ #谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？
Google Cloud grew 82% this quarter, the numbers are truly explosive. But look at another figure: it raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance directly to $195 billion to $205 billion. This isn’t about making money; it’s about pouring money aggressively into AI infrastructure. The market is now focused on two things: whether cloud business can keep growing strongly, and whether profit margins and cash flow will be dragged down by capital expenditures.
Last quarter’s earnings caused sharp drops for Google, Intel, Tesla, and SpaceX, but those who bought the dip after the reports have mostly seen prices recover to pre-earnings levels. This shows the market is somewhat desensitized to earnings shocks; as long as your story is strong, there will be buyers. Google also conveniently released Gemini 4 Argon to developers and enterprises worldwide, clearly competing with OpenAI for territory.
My view is simple. Google Cloud’s growth is solid, but the return cycle on AI investments is long, so stock price volatility will be significant. In the crypto space, don’t blindly rush into concept coins just because AI giants are spending big; pay more attention to who actually holds real assets.
What do you think? $BTC $ETH What I fear most now is seeing people use "ZEC has a total supply of only 21 million" to persuade others to go all in.
This statement itself is not wrong, but the problem is, does a limited supply necessarily mean the price will rise?
If it were that simple, projects in the crypto space with a total supply even less than Bitcoin would have already taken off one by one.
ZEC's scarcity does have a basis, with a clear issuance cap and a halving mechanism. But ultimately, the price depends on whether people are willing to pay for it. If new demand doesn't keep up, even if the daily newly mined coins decrease, the price can still fall.
Moreover, miners have to pay for electricity and equipment, so they can't hold onto all the ZEC they mine. The actual amount of real sell orders in the market can't be calculated just by looking at the total supply.
I'm not bearish on Zcash; I just think many people like to use a single number to boost their confidence.
The real reasons that make me willing to keep holding $ZEC should be that privacy transactions are being used, wallet experience is improving, development is ongoing, and the market is willing to pay for these things.
If none of these exist and all that's left is "limited supply," then I really wouldn't dare to heavily invest.
For now, I tend to wait and see. If there is a breakout with volume or a stable pullback, then I'll consider participating in batches. Before the market moves, having fewer illusions is quite good.Ahead of tonight’s CPI $BTC and $ETH are seeing short-term spot inflows of $13.73M and $13.27M, respectively. However, 4H and 24H flows remain weak, while $SOL continues to record outflows across all three periods.
US September CPI is forecast at 3.6% YoY and 0.6% MoM. Hotter data could pressure risk assets, while cooler inflation may support a rebound.
Watch BTC buying strength, ETH support, and whether SOL flows turn positive. Inflows are encouraging, but trend reversal needs confirmation. What is the most profitable business in the crypto circle?
Money Printer Daily · Day 2
1. $PUMP 24h cost 5.83 million, revenue 2.17 million, retention rate 37%
2. Papertrade 24h cost 3.76 million, revenue 3.76 million, retention rate 100%
3. Polymarket 24h cost 3.53 million, revenue 540,000, retention rate 15%
$PUMP is still number one, with a retention rate of 37%, basically unchanged from yesterday's 36%—it's not aggressive, but stable.
Yesterday's number 3, $UNI, dropped out of the top five.
Yesterday's focus, Papertrade, saw costs drop from 5.9 million to 3.76 million, a 36% decrease in one day.
The list excludes Tether and Circle—they collect a total of $24.45 million per day, but that's using users' money to buy U.S. Treasury bonds for interest, not protocol business.
If you don't know what to buy, look at those protocols that are the real money printers. BTC chip concentration is slightly bearish, ETH is relatively weak, and whales clearly took profits on long positions before the CPI release. The liquidation map shows large liquidity on both sides of the current price, with BTC mainly concentrated around 81k and 84k, and ETH near 2410 and 2580.
Top traders' long position exposure has reached this year's highest (93%), while retail traders on-chain are heavily shorting. Winners and losers consistently stand on opposite sides, which is very worth our attention.