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DeepSeek's second round of financing is expected to reach 100 billion yuan, with CATL investing another 10 billion yuan, but the valuation has not increased
According to multiple sources cited by Caijing, DeepSeek is about to complete its second round of financing, with the fundraising scale increasing from the previously planned 50 billion yuan to about 100 billion yuan, doubling in less than half a month. However, the pre-investment valuation remains about 500 billion yuan and has not been adjusted upward with the expansion of the financing scale. Including the first round of over 50 billion yuan completed in June, if this round is successfully closed, DeepSeek's total financing in half a year will reach about 150 billion yuan.
The proposed investment amounts from new and existing shareholders each account for about half. Among them, CATL plans to invest another 10 billion yuan in this round after investing about 5 billion yuan in the first round. Existing shareholders such as Tencent and IDG Capital also plan to continue increasing their stakes. New investors include Shixi Capital, SMIC Juyuan, CPE Yuanfeng, Junlian Capital, and Geely, mainly from the semiconductor, automotive, and other industrial chains. DeepSeek has also been deepening industrial cooperation; in August, it spent 141 million yuan to participate in Yushu Technology's IPO strategic placement, committing to a 36-month lock-up. Yesterday, Bloomberg reported that DeepSeek plans to lead a tens of millions of dollars seed round investment in the robotics AI startup Winverse AI, with a post-investment valuation of about 400 million USD. The company was founded by Hu Han, former head of embodied intelligence research at Tencent, and the deal has not yet been finalized.CPI Night: No guessing on rises or falls, just preparing plans
CPI and PPI are appearing one after another. The real test is not the numbers themselves, but how the interest rate hike path will be rewritten. BTC, ETH, ZEC holders, it's best to turn off your emotions first.
If inflation exceeds expectations on both fronts, the market will reprice rate hikes: the US dollar and US Treasury yields will rise, and risk assets will come under pressure. BTC will fall first, ETH will be weaker, and highly elastic small coins like ZEC will retract more fiercely; gold will also struggle to remain unscathed. Don't rush to catch the falling knife at this time; the mid-slope is the easiest place to get buried.
If the data is below expectations, concerns about rate hikes will cool down, US Treasury yields will fall back, and risk assets will get a breather. BTC's rebound space opens, small coins recover, and gold strengthens. But this looks more like a range repair, not the starting gun of a bull market; resistance above still exists.
Last week's pullback was just an oversold correction; the trend has not reversed. ETH is weaker, funds still prefer BTC; ZEC is volatile, a single daily bullish candle does not indicate a trend reversal. Macro determines direction; candlesticks are just emotions.
My judgment: this time it feels more like "cooling down but not cold enough," so I won't chase highs or bottom-fish; I'll wait for the data to land before following. Are you leaning toward heat or cooling? $BTC $ETH $ZEC
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 The decline continues, FIL is very weak, and there should still be a lot of room to fall. The halving landed on October 15, which is a long-term positive news, but it is definitely bearish after landing.
$FIL After falling from the high of 1.2636, the overall trend has turned bearish. The 15-minute Bollinger Bands are opening downward, and the price is running close to the lower Bollinger Band. The moving averages also form a top-down suppression pattern.
Although there was a slight rebound repair at the low of 1.0703 in the short term, this rebound was very weak and did not reverse the downtrend structure; it was just a brief respite after a big drop.
The market lacks sufficient buying support, and there is obvious resistance in the 1.12-1.13 range above, making it difficult for the rebound to continue.
The fundamental selling pressure expectation persists, and in a generally weak market sentiment environment, the rebound is very likely to start another downward move.
Once the low support at 1.0703 is broken, it will trigger a new round of stop-loss selling, further opening the downside space.There are still 12 positions in hand
10 of them are profitable
$LIT previously said it wanted to reach 2u
Keeping the promise, it must get below 2u
Won't sell unless it reaches that point
Just to prove it can go down
The unlock date for $PUMP has arrived
Today also saw a downward wave following the trend
The current downtrend is already very obvious
Opening long positions now would just be feeding fuel
Just follow the trend
$OFC is one of the only two losing positions among so many
It's very frustrating, it just won't rise
New lows again and again, large token unlocks every month
Where is the bottom for OFC? Feels like there is no bottom
No matter where you enter, it's always at the peak A great victory! This round of Mi Shen's double top strategy → early resistance to rebound → pressure level to fill the short → secondary confirmation to take value, the whole system runs perfectly. If interested, you can trace back the entire October Mi Shen strategy; after reading it, you will definitely be amazed. Back to the point, when I feel things are going smoothly, I need to be more cautious. The lesson of being careless and losing Jingzhou has been learned many times. Controlling drawdown is sometimes more important than anything else. News: The Russia-Ukraine ceasefire didn't last a day; Ukraine attacked energy facilities again. Wednesday's CPI once again emphasizes its importance. There isn't much else, as the subsequent news is dense. For now, the technical side dominates, but that may change later. So, seize the recent clear technical signals and precise points to try to capture more value. BTC: As expected, today's market view is simple. 80220-81750 is the first previous low point. Regardless of whether it goes down later, a W double bottom structure can be considered in the short term. But a rebound is not a reversal; the double bottom is also an attempt. If the previous low cannot hold, there may be even lower levels, with 78500-80220 below also entirely possible. For intraday operations, be careful. First, reject FOMO emotions. Many have seen Mi Shen's strategy but haven't joined the trade. Here's a reminder: don't try to make a big move to make up for the value you should have taken earlier. This kind of action is wrong. Your position size should be determined only by the signal level of the market, not by what you missed or lost $FIL FIL is currently around $1.23–$1.25, up about 12%–14% in 24 hours, with a rapid short-term surge from around $1.09, having broken through the $1.20 resistance. On the upside, first watch $1.27–$1.30, then $1.35–$1.40; if volume supports holding above $1.30, the short-term structure can be considered truly strengthened. Support is at $1.18–$1.20, with a key defense level at $1.15; if broken, a retest of $1.10 or even $1.05 is possible. The mid-term is driven by expectations of token release ending on October 15, but beware of the "buy the rumor, sell the fact" risk. Overall, it is event-driven with a slightly strong oscillation; wait for a pullback that does not break $1.15 before judging trend continuation. ETH currently has two most concentrated trapped positions very clear: bulls are trapped between 2610—2630, bears are trapped between 1950—2140. Before the midterm elections, it is not easy to release these two areas at once; more likely, there will be repeated oscillations to wash out positions.
Yesterday, the top near 2549 was given; although it didn’t fully reach 2578, the position was fairly accurate. Today, the focus is on whether the top at 2447 can be tested by a rebound; if it can’t hold here, it indicates a weak rebound, and below we need to guard against a pullback near 2394.38 or even 2349.
Now is not the time to blindly chase longs. High leverage is easily stopped out by spikes; first wait to confirm the rebound strength near 2447, then decide whether it’s a short-term bounce or a continued dip. Do you think ETH can reach back to 2447 today, or will it break down directly to 2394? Let’s discuss in the comments. The above is only personal observation and does not constitute investment advice.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认
#台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？ In the PUMP whale sample, the short position scale is about $71.6 million, while the long position is only $29.8 million, with shorts approximately 2.4 times the longs. In the position snapshot at 09:44 Beijing time on October 13, HYPE and ZEC also show heavier short positions, but to different extents.
ByKaranteli scanned the top 1000 accounts ranked by account value on the Hyperliquid public leaderboard, with all 1000 responding. HYPE longs are about $388.8 million, shorts $454.8 million; ZEC longs $114.9 million, shorts $202.5 million. PUMP comes from a meme issuance platform; the three here compare the contract positions of the same batch of large accounts.
This is the scale of open contracts, not the money flowing in today. The sample may include market makers and hedging positions; a single platform’s large accounts having more shorts cannot be directly interpreted as bearish for the entire market. What is worth monitoring next is whether the number of positions continues to change, not just the USD valuation.
Source: ByKaranteli original position table and methodology explanation; snapshot at 01:44 UTC, captured at 09:52 Beijing time, image from the original page. The actual breakdown for the three coins is in the corresponding table below, with related spot market navigation provided below. $PUMP $HYPE $ZEC #波动雷达：币种异动观察 Order Book Strength Ranking
5-minute median slippage, estimated by order book
$DOS large buy cost rising. Simulated slippage for a 100,000 scale buy increased from 1.95% to 2.16%.
$BLUR sell cost for two levels rising simultaneously. Simulated sell slippage: 10,000 from 0.13% to 0.17%, 100,000 from 0.96% to 1.13%.
$BOME large sell cost decreasing, small sell cost almost unchanged. Simulated slippage for a 100,000 scale sell decreased from 0.89% to 0.80%. 10,000 sell still about 0.10%. What’s going on with $BTC?
It swept up and down twice in four hours, never-ending?
Bear trap? Bull trap?
Shakeout? Accumulation?
Candlestick shadows intertwine, volume fluctuates wildly, both bulls and bears are being toyed with. The floating profit in my account shrinks bit by bit, mentally exhausted. Luckily, my stop loss is set, not watching the market constantly, or I’d have been slapped in the face repeatedly, countless times in operation. Is this just teasing the bulls and bears?
Is a trend change coming? Southbound or northbound, give a clear word.
Personal view: --
Personal operation: No adding positions, no trading, maintain long.
Damn capital!
First knock you down, then become you!
When I have money, I’ll also be a market maker for once.Real trading record day 183!
The storage trio took another hit before the market opened. $MU Micron fell 5.01%, $SNDK SanDisk dropped 5.55%, and $SKHYNIX SK Hynix declined 6.30%. SanDisk has closed down on six of the last seven trading days!
The trigger is still ChangXin Memory. Its 4F² DRAM architecture has made a key breakthrough, planning to launch server memory products by the end of the year, raising market concerns about changes in the competitive landscape, with Micron taking the brunt.
On the other hand, Samsung and Hynix’s combined roughly $40 billion buyback plan was terminated early, removing support; foreign investors have net sold Korean tech stocks for five consecutive days, with a single-day net sell scale reaching $1.3 billion.
The fundamentals haven’t collapsed, but the double whammy of valuation and sentiment continues. Don’t rush to catch the falling knife.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#三星Q3初步利润首破100万亿韩元
#俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 No vision, can't hold on, this wave of profit is as thin as paper, but I love it to death. While everyone else is still watching, $BAT funds quietly enter the market. As long as the bottom doesn't break, I go long directly, opening at 0.13436, no bold claims, just clearly stating the plan.
I panicked a bit during the intraday plunge, but the structure didn't break, so I kept holding. 0.15463 gave the answer, a return of +302.02%. The big profit was worth the wait, this gain feels good. The earlier hesitation was real, but coming out of it feels really sweet.
If the trend isn't broken, hold on; if it breaks, run. Don't fall in love with stocks. Better to miss a limit-up than to catch a falling knife and end up bleeding.
Take profits first, secure 70%, and keep 30% at cost price as protection. Don't be greedy for the last bit; if it keeps rising, let the profits run; if it falls back, don't let the gains become painful. Brothers, pay attention to profits.
For friends who haven't gotten on board yet, listen to me: chasing highs easily leaves you stuck at the peak. Wait for a more comfortable position in the next round; there will be more opportunities later. I'll notify you immediately. Panic comes from no plan; losses come from overthinking.
$XRP $DOGE $BTC 10.13 Big Cake
Entry: rebound near 826-830 Kong Bamboo band above 835 Target 814-804-798
The main downtrend wave starting from the high point of 84361 has dropped more than 3300 points in a short time, characterized by a volume-breakdown style decline; the subsequent rebound neither broke through the midpoint of the downtrend wave nor created a new stage high, maintaining an overall "lower highs, lower lows" descending structure, with no fundamental change in the trend bearish direction.
The rebound after bottoming is a volume-shrinking repair, without a volume breakout of the key resistance level, indicating weak active buying strength from bulls, more of a passive rebound caused by short-term profit-taking from bears rather than a trend reversal driven by incremental buying; once the rebound sentiment fades, bears can easily regain momentum to push prices down again.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ #台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？ TSMC's Q3 revenue hit a record high at 1.49 trillion New Taiwan Dollars, up nearly 51% year-over-year, directly surpassing the high end of its financial forecast, with cumulative revenue for the first nine months already exceeding last year's total. I believe AI demand is genuinely strong; Blackwell is still carrying the load, Rubin and ASIC are also starting to ramp up, and advanced process utilization rates are ridiculously high.
What really needs to be watched in the October 15 earnings call is whether the gross margin can hold steady above 65%, and whether the N2 ramp-up and overseas factory costs will significantly dilute profits. The Q4 guidance and whether the full-year USD revenue growth rate will be revised upward from "slightly above 40%" are also key points. Whether the capital expenditure range of $60-64 billion changes is equally worth monitoring.
I suggest not just focusing on revenue numbers; profit margins and next year's demand visibility are the keys to whether the stock price can continue to rise. The data already shows AI is far from over, but cost pressures are rising. $BTC $SOL SOL FELL 12.80% IN SEVEN DAYS, YET SIT +36.19% OVER 90 DAYS. The daily chart shows a 124.96 high, then a slide to 105.25. Volume stays modest on the red candles. I'm treating this as a pullback inside a larger gain until the 90-day picture changes.
Does the 7D drop matter more than 90D?
#SolanaCutsSlotsTo350ms # Lansce | October 13 SOL Daily Market Analysis $SOL
【Today's Silk Road】
Short position: rebound in the 105.3—106.3 range to short
Take profit: first target 103.8—103.3, second target 102.4—102.0
【Core Conclusion】
SOL shows greater volatility, with the morning session continuously sold off from the high of 108.79, bottoming at 101.56, then quickly rebounding to 104.51. MACD green bars below zero axis narrow, fast and slow lines turn up at low levels, indicating short-term need for corrective rebound. However, previous downtrend was on high volume, resistance above remains obvious, so do not treat the rebound as the start of a new uptrend.
【Trading Details】
The 105.3-106.3 range above is a short-term resistance zone, likely to face resistance when rebounding to this level. Wait to confirm price weakness before lightly entering short positions, focusing on support below. If volume increases and price stabilizes above 106.3, this short position plan will be abandoned. #SOL延续涨势，资金与链上需求共振 Brothers, this wave can be kept as a family heirloom; this should be the highest point, and I’m holding on until it hits zero.
The overall structure of $STRK STRK has completely formed a sustained bearish trend. After the previous high of 0.12680 peaked, it has been declining stepwise. Each small rebound is followed by a new lower low, making the downtrend rhythm very clear.
From the 15-minute chart perspective, the short-term moving averages MA5, MA10, and MA20 have intertwined and are again forming bearish pressure. The current slight sideways movement is just a brief pause in the downtrend, not a stable reversal.
During this sideways consolidation, buying support remains weak, with no major funds stepping in to support the bottom. It’s only short-term bottom-fishing funds temporarily playing, while existing selling pressure continues to accumulate.
The Layer sector’s overall sentiment is weak. Once the broader market weakens again, this brief sideways range is very likely to break down directly.
The previous low support at 0.08203 has very little reliability. Once broken, it will trigger a large number of stop-loss orders causing a chain reaction of selling. The bearish space will fully open, and the risk of a sustained deep decline is very high. Don’t blindly bottom-fish just because the price is low. # Lansce | October 13th BTC Market Analysis $ETH
【Today's Silk Road】
Short order: rebound in the 2465–2480 range to short
Take profit: first target 2425–2415, second target 2408–2405
【Core Conclusion】
BTC moves in tandem with ETH; the early session high was 2526.28, then it dropped all the way down to 2407.50, followed by a bottoming and rebound along with the broader market. Current price is 2451.19. MACD shows shrinking green bars at low levels, with the fast and slow lines turning upward crossing in a golden cross, indicating short-term rebound momentum. However, moving averages still press above the price, so this rebound is a pullback during a downtrend, with heavy resistance above.
【Game Details】
The 2465–2480 range is a short-term strong resistance; rebounds reaching here tend to face pressure and fall back. Wait for the market to confirm the inability to break higher before lightly shorting again. If volume expands and price stabilizes above 2480, this short order Silk Road will be abandoned directly. #ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 LIT dropped to $3.2214 in the early session, with the 8 o'clock hourly candle trading about $1.88 million, nearly 6 times the median hourly volume of the past 24 full hours.
On OKX spot, the price moved from $3.3826 to $3.2525 this hour. At 9:52, it rebounded to $3.318, still below the 8 o'clock opening price. The 24-hour volume is about $11.33 million, with roughly $80,000 in orders placed 1% above and below the current price.
My judgment is that the rebound has not yet overturned the early session's volume-driven decline. A low point recovery can easily make people hastily conclude the downtrend has stopped, but the volume and closing position at 8 o'clock remain. If a full hourly candle later shows volume and closes back at $3.3826, I will reconsider this bearish assessment.
$LIT The moment I smashed this clove of garlic with a knife, everyone in the kitchen should understand—the problem isn't the garlic, it's the supplier.
This batch from Ledger is exactly like a restaurant that flaunts a Michelin star but actually sources from a small workshop in Southeast Asia. The official statement says the system wasn't hacked, the direct sales channels are clean, and the only confirmed device had unauthorized implants inserted—this isn't spoiled ingredients, it's someone throwing an unknown powder into your pot in the kitchen. Eighty-six million-dollar-level suspected losses are on the books, the numbers haven't been fully verified, the supply chain isn't fully locked down, but that burnt smell is already wafting over the pot's edge.
What do cooks fear most? Not the cost, but unclear sourcing. You pay a high price for a cold wallet to lock your private keys in a temperature-controlled safe, but the middleman adds an ingredient without your knowledge. The retail investor's "main dish" is no longer safe because the plate holding the main dish was handed over by someone else. This is the real spice—not the glaringly hot chili of leverage that you immediately feel on your tongue; this is chili powder mixed into flour, burning your stomach only after you swallow.
The European buyer also reported a suspicious component, but it hasn't been verified yet. Unverified ingredients don't go on the table—that's the rule. But common sense in the kitchen is: when someone at the table has already found a foreign object in their food, you shouldn't argue "only one dish has a problem" first; you should check where the cold chain record of the entire supply chain broke.
Is the risk confined to just one channel? From the chef's perspective, it depends on two things—whether the implant happened after factory shipment, during logistics, or in storage; and what proportion of devices that channel handled. The official line is "a few devices, system intact," which is a nice presentation, but presentation isn't ingredient traceability.
My judgment is like a layered dish: the base layer is a hardware trust crisis, the middle layer is a quality control black hole in the middleman channel, and the top layer is that eighty-six million-dollar figure. Most people only focus on the cream on top and forget that if the base collapses, the whole dish is ruined.
And tokens like $xAVGO, which are linked to US stocks, now play the role of dessert—when the main course has problems, no one has an appetite for dessert; liquidity shrinks first, volatility rises first. The token itself isn't bad, but the guests at the table have already put down their knives and forks.
A truly five-star kitchen never outsources quality control to distributors' conscience. Where the chip is soldered, who signed the firmware, which port the goods entered through—these records are more like a recipe than any "our system is secure" statement.
The pot is still hot, but the scallions are already burnt at the edges. Whether to take the whole pot away depends on how many people in the kitchen are willing to admit—the seasoning was brought in by themselves. #ledgerresellersecurityBTC short-term strategy suggestions:
Open short positions: Firmly hold short positions entered below 84,262, move stop loss down to 83,100 (profit-taking buffer). Targets: 80,960 (reduce 1/4) → 80,316 (reduce 1/4) → 79,450-80,300 (reduce another 1/4) → 78,500-78,900 (close all positions)
Add to shorts: Add shorts on rebound to 82,200-82,600, stop loss at 83,150, targets as above; chase shorts if price breaks below 81,500, stop loss at 82,100, targets 80,300/79,450
C wave end reversal (next 1-3 days): At 78,500-79,500, if a "lowest volume (<5 billion) + long lower shadow/engulfing + Delta divergence (>-500 million) + 15-minute bottom fractal" triple signal appears, close shorts and reverse to long, aiming for X wave rebound to 82,000-84,000, stop loss at 78,000
Risk control red lines (shorts): Volume recovery above 83,650 (lower edge of iron curtain) → halve short positions; recovery above 84,400 → stop all losses (double top failure, entering a larger scale consolidation)
Long position handling: For longs trapped between 83,000-84,000, reduce positions on any rebound above 82,200 during C-5; strictly wait for the triple signal at 78,500-79,500 to bottom fish, avoid catching a falling knife
Current status: 81,596, located mid C-5
$BTC #星球日报 The waveform on the monitor suddenly changed from a regular sinus rhythm to ventricular fibrillation — that was my first reaction when I saw the XPL linked with the US stock Token target this morning. It's not that the price drop made you uncomfortable; it's that the myocardium itself is ischemic.
Don't rush to perform defibrillation yet. What we need to do is angiography to find the plaque causing the blockage. The linkage between XPL and the US stock Token target is essentially not a coincidence of two independent hearts stopping, but an embolus falling from the same aortic arch — liquidity. When macro funds start to contract, the first to necrose is always the myocardium with the poorest collateral circulation, meaning targets with small market cap, shallow depth, and oxygen supplied by narrative. XPL's perfusion pressure originally depends on the continuous positive inotropic support of risk appetite; once the market "main pump" ejection fraction declines, it can't even compensate with tachycardia.
I've seen too many peers make the mistake on stage: when there's bleeding, they just focus on plugging it with gauze without finding the bleeding point. Here it means — when it falls, just add positions until the position dies. This is emotional treatment, not precise diagnosis. The real lesion lies in the structural shift of funding rates and the distribution of open contracts; that is the electrophysiological substrate of the myocardium, determining whether the next arrhythmia will become sustained.
Now, let's talk about the surgical plan. The first thing you need to do is intraoperative transesophageal echocardiography — that is, to look at the cost distribution map of holdings. If costs are highly concentrated in a narrow range, it means this myocardium still has contraction reserve but is temporarily suppressed; if costs are scattered like shotgun pellets, it indicates diffuse fibrosis, and any small stress may trigger irreversible heart failure. The "ventricular remodeling" speed of targets like XPL is much faster than blue chips, so don't use the recovery cycle of large caps to trap it.
Next, position management is the flow control of extracorporeal circulation. You can't give a patient with heart function class III full flow; that would be overperfusion and cause pulmonary edema. Similarly, exposure to high-volatility targets must be back-calculated based on stroke volume, not your courage. Stop loss is not failure; it's a safety check before aortic occlusion. Surgeons all know the most dangerous thing is not the bleeding itself, but that you think you can endure it after bleeding.
From a long-term prognosis perspective, the true value of these linked targets is not in short-term ECG but whether they can be the first to restore autonomous circulation in the next perfusion recovery. Having a heartbeat doesn't necessarily mean survival; those who survive must have well-reconstructed collateral circulation. So what you need to watch now is not the price, but the volume distribution, the return of funding rates, and whether the market's ejection fraction has stabilized.
My last words before stepping down: the heart won't beat just because you want it to. #okxtradervoicesToday a brother told me that staying up late every day to watch the market is too exhausting, and he wants to do a regular investment plan. He asked me if I had any good recommendations.
This really stumped me. It's not that there are no good coins, but this kind of thing is best decided by yourself.
Of course, I still gave some advice:
First, regular investment has always been what I consider the most stable way to make money in the crypto world, but very few people are willing to do it.
The reason I say it’s stable for making money is that if you look at the gains of mainstream coins over the years, holding long-term itself can make money.
So why are people unwilling to do this?
Because people who come to the crypto world can roughly be divided into two types: one type has their own trading system and looks down on regular investment as a "no skill" approach; the other type wants to make quick money, and regular investment is too slow and requires persistence, which they simply can’t endure, and the latter accounts for the vast majority.
Essentially, regular investment is actually very suitable for beginners or people with average risk tolerance—it doesn’t require watching the market or timing, just discipline to keep it going.
The real skill in regular investment lies in choosing the target.
With the same regular investment, some people have high returns, some have average returns, and the difference lies here.
It doesn’t have to be BTC or ETH, as long as it can withstand bull and bear markets, has no risk of going to zero; has good liquidity, can be traded on mainstream platforms, and has a relatively high market cap; and has fundamental support. If you endure until the next bull market, you will most likely make money.
Regular investment is not a get-rich-quick strategy; it’s a strategy to exchange time for certainty.
Choose the right target and stick to it, that’s enough. #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 @OKX成长学院 Do not easily assume the downtrend has ended; the end of the decline is not that quick!
1. From the perspective of ETF fund flows, recent ETF funds have been in a net outflow state. Although the outflow has decreased recently, as long as there is no large net inflow, it indicates that external buying is cautious. Therefore, there won't be large funds supporting the bottom, nor will there be a significant rally. Without a strong rally, there won't be good profits for us to take.
2. This morning, both the stock market and the storage sector experienced sharp declines. I also took some losses on Micron. However, from a technical pattern perspective, there is no sign of recovery yet. It feels like this decline is just the beginning. If large-cap stocks cannot stop falling, then don't expect a strong follow-up market.
3. Gold is also very weak, showing a downtrend on both daily and hourly charts. As mentioned before, gold and Bitcoin have a linkage effect, and gold tends to move first. So if gold does not stop falling, do not easily turn bullish on Bitcoin.
Personal operation:
Bitcoin has just made a small rebound, and I have entered a short position again. Because I have not seen any signs of gold or the overall stock market (A-shares, Korean stocks, Nasdaq) stopping their decline.The recent bottom rebound in the market is clearly a bull trap; I don't plan to be shaken out for now.
$ETH short position opened at an average price of 2701.99, with an unrealized profit rate of 900.33%; $AAVE short position opened at an average price of 163.71, with an unrealized profit rate of 233.33%. High leverage positions fluctuate greatly, and this kind of rebound is most likely to disrupt the mindset. There could be sudden spikes sweeping back and forth at any time. Continuing to observe to see if this bull trap ends quickly.
Are there any friends also holding shorts? Let's discuss whether to hold on and wait for further decline or to partially take profits to hedge risk.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认
#台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？ Latest: The weekly MACD momentum of #BTC has just turned positive, after being negative for 44 consecutive weeks.👀
Historically, this marks the beginning of a bull market.🚀$ZEC Where is the real drop? Such strong market control. When it falls, they buy their own coins to push it back up. What happened to the mainstream coins dropping? ZEC didn't drop at all. When the mainstream slightly recovers, this thing takes off immediately BTC $ETH Daily Report 📡
Price: 2470-2510 USD range, weekly drop about 7%, short-term still sluggish.
Technical Analysis 🎯
2505 is the critical line between bulls and bears; if it can't hold, expect a pullback to 2454→2400; strong support at 2351, resistance at 2676.
News Battle 🥊
🐂 A giant whale sold 410 BTC for 14,000 ETH, Binance reserves dropped to a six-month low, someone is quietly accumulating.
🐻 But the foundation transferred 4393 ETH to Kraken, combined with tomorrow night’s US CPI, selling pressure above is heavy.
Trading Advice 💡
Don’t get ahead of yourself before choosing a direction! If you want to add positions, do it in batches and watch your stop loss carefully.
Just chatting, investing carries risks. Not investment advice, profits and losses are your own 😂I just unfolded the stress diagram of a load-bearing beam and saw Bitcoin settle from a height of 87,000 down to 83,000 — this isn’t a renovation issue, it’s the foundation creaking. A net outflow of 731 million USD is equivalent to removing an entire floor slab over two consecutive construction days. On October 9th, only 21 million was backfilled; even the scaffolding wasn’t properly set up, let alone restoring the design load.
I never treat the ETF pipeline as a belief, only as a pile foundation inspection report. Institutional funds are like the municipal pipelines of a community; connecting them can speed up building construction, but once the main pipeline pressure reverses, the lowest floors always leak first. The positions held by Morgan Stanley on behalf of fund holders are the contractors, not the owners. When the wind changes, contractors withdraw faster than anyone else. Strive wants to finance expansion with preferred shares, which essentially forces an additional layer on the existing foundation without installing new cast-in-place piles — preferred shares are prestressed tendons with priority repayment rights. They can temporarily raise the apparent load-bearing value, but once cash flow breaks, the backlash is harsher than with common stock.
What’s really pressing on the structure now are two lateral forces: government bond yields and energy prices. These aren’t just decorative surfaces; they are wind loads. Rising yields directly draw liquidity mortar from risk assets, and higher energy prices push up the costs of miners, the old load-bearing wall. The CPI on October 14th was a structural inspection; if the data exceeds design expectations, the displacement of the entire building will have to go further down.
What concerns me more are those still pushing construction forward. Institutional interest hasn’t waned, indicating planning permission is still valid, but permission doesn’t equal completion. Actions by MSBT and Strive are symbolic topping-offs, not structural topping-offs. What truly determines whether this round can stand is the long-term demand foundation slab — it must be thick and uniform enough to absorb local settlement caused by selling pressure. Currently, bulls are trying to make a temporary support at 83,000, but support is not a design value, just a temporary prop.
As for the synthetic instruments mapped from the S&P side, don’t be fooled by the linked appearance. They are two different structural systems; sharing a wall doesn’t mean shared stress. Until this macro risk geological fault stabilizes, any rebound is just elastic deformation, not plastic recovery.
The only correct way to watch the market now is to focus on settlement observation points and not rush to hang renovations. #btcetfoutflowpressureSilence before CPI: Who is waiting for the wind? ⏳
With CPI yet to be released, the market is like a drawn bow.🎯 The FOMC minutes were hawkish but just an appetizer; the real main course is the inflation data. If CPI turns out hot again, risk assets may take another hit; if it cools down, the tense sentiment might finally get a breather.
$BTC eyes 82000.🟠 This is the defensive line bulls cannot retreat from. ETFs are still being redeemed, US Treasury yields remain high, and institutions are not rushing back in. Holding 82000 means the story can continue; breaking below 80000 could trigger panic like dominoes.
$ETH looks even weaker.🔷 ETF funds keep flowing out, buying support is insufficient, and it can only follow BTC’s lead. If BTC falls first, Ethereum often crashes harder.
XAUT quietly enters the spotlight.🟡 When the market is uneasy, capital always seeks a safe haven, and gold-related assets naturally come back to the table.
In short: BTC hopes for fresh liquidity, ETH waits for funds to return, and XAUT relies on safe-haven warmth.🌊🛡️
Before the CPI release, don’t rush to bet. Whether you guess right or wrong doesn’t count; wait for signal confirmation, and it’s not too late to act.⏳#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 Radar echoes have just been calibrated, and a warm, moist airflow labeled "Novice Low-Pressure Trough" is advancing from the crypto sea area toward the coastline, with central pressure dropping sharply, accompanied by strong convective weather. This is not a disaster warning; it is a routine weather process that occurs every flood season. I have been forecasting for seventeen years and have seen the same cloud cluster evolution many times: fishing boats entering this sea area for the first time are often not capsized by hurricanes but by their own panicked helmsmen.
A low-level jet is transporting a large amount of "questioning moisture." Some ask why the barometer suddenly fluctuates, some ask when the cumulonimbus clouds will dissipate, and others ask why the adjacent route has cleared while their side is still experiencing heavy rain. These are not foolish questions; they are observational records not yet archived in meteorological files. The value of national-level stations has never been in announcing whether it is sunny or rainy today but in laying out the paths, intensities, and turning points of similar weather processes over the past thirty years for you to see. The experience of veteran forecasters essentially comes from countless times passing through thunderstorm zones.
Now look at the linked front of the $xNVDA US stock token. It resembles a strong cold air mass cutting in from the westerlies, confronting the local warm, moist airflow head-on, forming a typical "frontal cyclone." This system is characterized by fast movement, high variability, and strong shear. On radar, it looks like a clean echo band, but the lower layers are full of wind shear and turbulence. Many observers focus only on the temperature difference between it and the underlying index but overlook the "terrain uplift" dark line of the capital account—the transmission of pressure differences is never real-time and has obvious lag and attenuation.
#NewHereStartHere This area is essentially a newly established meteorological observation post. It collects "weather diaries of firsthand experiencers": who lost anchors in which typhoon, who pulled nets early before which upper trough, who misjudged visibility. Official starter guides are equivalent to regularly updated historical weather atlases, professional answers to top questions are like inviting senior forecasters for a weather consultation, and the best weekly posts select the most representative sounding curves.
Visibility report: The current crypto sea area is overall in a convective weather phase, locally strong, short-lived, and difficult to forecast. Convective cloud clusters often form and dissipate within just tens of minutes, and most novices only realize they forgot lightning protection after seeing lightning. Remember the most basic meteorological rule: radar can tell you twenty minutes in advance that a storm is approaching, but it cannot decide for you whether to go to sea. Your own boat, your ballast, and your return plan are the variables that determine survival rate.
The warm, moist airflow is still being transported, the front has not yet passed, and radar echo intensity remains moderately strong.First, record the position of $PEPE, then discuss the view: current price is 0.00000391, about 3.84% away from the 1-hour support at 0.00000376, and about 10.74% away from the resistance at 0.00000433.
The low level of $PEPE is starting to attract attention, but cheapness can never replace evidence of a bottom. The 1-hour and 4-hour are both weak, with RSI at 28 and 41 respectively.
I only keep one confirmation for an upward move — breaking through 0.00000433; and only one condition to negate it — falling below 0.00000376. Other fluctuations are considered noise for now.
If you must choose one validation point first, would you watch for resistance confirmation or support breakdown?
The above is market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is from Crypto Bulls Talk.This short position from 108.9 to 105.77, although I set the take profit point at 105.1, with the take profit idea based on the 0.382 level of the 4-hour cycle, unfortunately after reaching 105.3 it lingered a bit for 5 minutes and then closed at 105.77. I was watching the chart downstairs on my phone, not using the computer Fibonacci chart, and I just couldn't resist closing the short position directly.
After closing the position, the price went for a meal. When I came back after eating, I realized I missed the opportunity, the chicken leg rice was gone, and I didn't set up properly.
The price bottomed at the 1.236 extension level on the 30-minute chart at 101.88, which is also the 0.236 level on the 4-hour chart at 101.66. There was a sharp rebound here, with a retracement of about 3% from the lowest point.
$SOL "ETH's movement overnight tells a story of 'holding firm.'"
On the 15-minute chart, the price started from around 2496, with one bullish candle after another pushing up to 2554. It then did not reverse downward but instead consolidated sideways near 2530. Trading volume expanded to 128,000 tokens during the rise and shrank during the pullback—selling pressure did not follow, which is why the consolidation held.
There are several details on the chart worth noting. The MA5, MA10, and MA20 moving averages converge near 2535, with the price running just above the moving average band, indicating a brief balance between bulls and bears here. The super trend line is pressing down at 2558; in the morning, the price touched 2554, just one step away from a bullish signal. On the order book, the best bid holds 12,000 tokens, while the best ask has only 800 tokens, showing strong support below.
Looking at a longer timeframe, the pattern is clearer. There was a 4.2% pullback in the past 7 days, but a 3.1% gain over 30 days and a 12.5% increase over 90 days. This means the recent weekly pullback occurred within a quarterly uptrend structure, with the low at 2496 higher than previous bottoms.
The next key point is straightforward: $ETH needs to break above 2558 with volume to turn the super trend green and connect the upward channel; conversely, breaking below the moving average convergence zone at 2535 would mean retreating to around 2500 to rebuild support. The sideways consolidation won't last long; the directional choice will be made within the next one or two candles. A brief analysis of BTC short-term trends based on Dow Theory, Chan Theory, Elliott Wave Theory, volume-price relationship, order flow, and price action (strategy recommendations)
$BTC #星球日报
Comprehensive assessment
Dow Theory confirms 84,262 as the new LH, with the downtrend sequence intact
Chan Theory's central area shifts down from ① to ②, establishing a triple sell signal
Elliott Wave Theory C-5 target at 79,500-80,300, ultimate target 78,500-78,900
Volume-price relationship shows 22.3 billion tombstone doji distribution confirmation
Order flow breaks below VA lower edge by 950 points + consecutive -3.5 billion/-1.1 billion
Price action shows huge volume tombstone doji + continued decline.
After yesterday's "false breakout," six dimensions have reformed a consistent bearish resonance, and this signal is stronger than on October 7 (triple-verified top structure: double top + iron curtain + tombstone doji). $SOL is currently the most frustrating, not because it’s falling, but because it has been hovering along the 100-day moving average for a week — every time it looks like it’s going to drop, it gets pulled back, yet no one is willing to pay to push it higher.
At the end of September, it surged from the 70s to over 120, nearly doubling in a month, but on October 1st, a big bearish candle slammed it down by nearly 20%. The current position is awkward: upwards, 113 to 115 is where this rebound has repeatedly been pressed back, with the October 2nd 14-day high still weighing overhead; downwards, the 107 100-day moving average is being tested for the third time in a week — breaking it would be a significant barrier, and below that, 97 to 100 is the real rescue zone for this round.
More telling than the price is the futures side: although the SOL price has rebounded, the funding rate has never turned positive, even on the most aggressive futures platforms it remains negative. To translate — even speculators find this price unattractive, no one is willing to pay a premium for the rebound. The rebound has been on shrinking volume, which confirms this point: it’s not that no one is selling, it’s that no one is chasing.
The trend hasn’t broken yet; the mid- to long-term moving averages are all supporting from below. This round looks more like paying back debt after a rapid rise, rather than a structural collapse. But until the debt is fully paid, every bullish candle is just a breather after overselling.
Watch whether the 107 100-day moving average holds, and whether volume and funding rates cooperate when the rebound moves above 113. Many people see the price rising a bit from 80960 and rush in anxiously to buy the dip and go long. This round is just a technical rebound after an oversell, not a reversal signal.
From the market perspective, the price has rebounded to around 82200, with the first major resistance above at 82500.
The MA20 moving average is firmly pressing at this level; the rebound is a position to short, not an opportunity for everyone to chase longs!
Short-term strategy:
$BTC rebound range 82400-82800 is a good area to set up short positions.
Stop loss above 83120.
First target: 81500; ultimate target is the 80000 level, with $ETH moving in sync. 📊 Last week’s BTC dip held 8% above what recent buyers paid on average, keeping them in profit.
That line is $74.4k and has held since August. ETFs are the weak spot, with $729M of outflows on 7 and 8 October.📈 Bitcoin’s True Market Mean sits at $77.5K, with price only 7.1% above it.
TMM has now turned higher, up 1.15% over 30 days.Trading is 90% waiting and 10% buying and selling. When the market is not good, do less or not at all; in a year, there are only two or three real one-sided opportunities. The hardest days, I once lost one million in a month, trying hard to find a viewpoint in the choppy market. Later I realized: forcing a viewpoint without a market is just losing money. Controlling your hands is more valuable than any technique.
$BTC $ETH $SOL $UNI $OKXA simple #BTC strategy.
Buy when half of the supply is at a loss.
Sell or take profit when ninety percent of the supply is in profit.
I used this indicator to accurately catch the bottom of the Bitcoin bear market.
It is one of the few truly effective indicators.$BTC double bottom test, some are shouting 80,000, 75,000, really don't know if they are looking at the trend or just panicking when it falls.
My view remains the same: the 3-day upward trend line hasn't broken, so prioritize buying on pullbacks rather than expecting a crash at every drop. BTC is now oscillating around 82,000, with key resistance above at 83,400-84,300; only after stabilizing there can we say there's a real breakout. Liquidity above is concentrated between 85,000-88,000. Wednesday's CPI is a key variable, so keep your bullets ready.
On the ETH side, support is stronger than BTC. 2,414 is the 24-hour low, 2,400 is a psychological level; if the pullback doesn't break below, it's worth watching. Resistance above is at 2,490-2,542 for the short term. ETF outflows reached 542 million in one week, so short-term selling pressure remains, but the 4-hour moving average is bullish, and an oversold rebound could come at any time.
Brother Maji's Ethereum position $ETH rose from 1,900 to 2,500; he rolled his position from 150,000 to 12.3 million; recently it dropped from 2,800 to 2,400, wiping out all profits, leaving only 290,000, still holding 3,500 ETH long positions, which will be liquidated if it falls near 2,393. Rolling positions when rising is an amplifier; if the direction reverses, it's a crusher. 📊 BTC Liquidation Heatmap | 48H Update
Bitcoin is approaching the $81K area, where significant liquidity is concentrated. Above the current price, the $84K - $85K zone remains another major liquidity cluster.
These levels can act as magnets for price, so keep an eye on price reactions and volatility around these key areas.About Asset Selection
I have seen many friends on the platform involved in all kinds of assets, and I think this makes it harder to make money.
Contract trading players are divided into two types: high leverage and low leverage.
1. High Leverage (above 5x)
For friends who like high leverage trading (above 10x leverage).
I still recommend finding about three assets and continuously tracking them; that is completely sufficient.
Here, I mainly recommend $BTC and $ETH, and at most adding one $ZEC.
High leverage trading requires greater technical analysis skills; fundamentals should not heavily affect the technicals, so we need to find assets without strong fundamentals.
BTC fully fits this, ETH also fits, though ETH’s income capability is weak, and ZEC barely qualifies.
I do not recommend playing with SOL, as I believe SOL’s fundamentals are still quite strong.
Personally, my high leverage trades are specifically focused on BTC and ETH.
2. Low Leverage (below 5x)
I think friends who choose low leverage have the following characteristics:
1) Do not want to constantly watch the market, looking for better entry points;
2) Want to capture trends;
3) Do not want too much pressure;
No need for long-term; from a mid-term perspective, these friends will be the market winners.
The assets low leverage traders operate on are actually very simple: just observe the assets you buy as spot (excluding meme coins).
Then analyze their trends.
In the market, those who truly survive are the ones who spend more time researching and patiently wait for results.My current plan is: keep enough living expenses, invest the big money through dollar-cost averaging and hold. When I was young, I thought I had to keep pushing, but now I understand that preserving profits is more important than making more. This path comes at a high cost—health and emotions are all sacrificed. Each stage has its own task; the early stage is to earn, the later stage is to hold. Only those who can hold can turn what they earn into their own.
$BTC $ETH $SOL $UNI $OKX7u challenge to reach 100 million!
Day 53
Principal 7u, target 100 million
Currently: 3700u
Living cost: 3100u
Available funds: 600u+
Yesterday someone asked me: Why are your expenses so high, 60u a day?
I didn’t listen to Brother Sun before. Marriage, having kids, buying a house, I did it all. These expenses can’t be cut, and there’s no way to cut them. So the question becomes: how to earn 60u a day?
I recalculated and found I made a mistake before.
"13 days left" was calculated by dividing 800u by 60u — treating content income as zero.
· Seriously writing content earns 300u a week, 43u a day → 600u can last 35 days
· If not writing, it only lasts 10 days
So the overall strategy remains: create content, do contracts, play meme
The most important thing recently: participating in a meme challenge, first prize is an Aston Martin.
I have prepared 100u so far, but there are many experts, so I need to leverage AI power. The overall framework is to simulate the human brain through AI, establishing a thinking layer and an execution layer. There are 4 days left, and my main focus is on this.
【Positions】
Holding long $BTC, with significant pullback; $PUMP is losing badly.
$PONS data is too poor, can’t go long.
Also holding a full hand of meme, all trapped.
If it were you, would you hold on for these 35 days, or use 100u to gamble for an Aston Martin? $BTC lost $83,000 overnight, now priced at $82,200, just a step away from last Thursday's low of $80,427.
Interestingly, nearly $1 billion flowed out of ETFs in October, yet the coin price only slid from $84,000 to $81,500 — significant selling pressure, but no crash. Glassnode puts it bluntly: spot participation is very thin, put options are being aggressively bought, and there's a cluster of liquidation levels below. To translate: bulls are currently holding up with thin buy orders above $80,000.
$80,000 is today's watershed. Hold it, and the target is $84,000 to fill the gap; break it, and below is basically empty air, with $78,000 in sight. $ETH is weaker, down 4.2%, with nine consecutive ETF outflows; don't expect it to lead a rebound at this stage.
The Fear & Greed Index dropped 12 points in one day to 57; sentiment is retreating faster than price — often a sign of short-term overselling, but before $80,000 is lost, chasing rebounds is like catching a falling knife My system is very simple: find the main upward wave, wait for a pullback to around 61.8%, buy, and ride the second push forming an N shape. Rest during consolidation, follow when the uptrend comes. I've used this one strategy for many years. Complex systems just add unnecessary drama; the market only rewards simple and repeatable methods.
$BTC $ETH $SOL $UNI $OKXAt that moment on the market, BTC was pulled back from 80400 to above 84000, and I stared at the candlestick chart in disbelief for two seconds. Is this really just a panic sell-off? - That lower shadow on the 9th now looks more like a premeditated limit order hunt in hindsight. After the extreme selling pressure was drained, on 10.12 volume shrank and price rebounded, high-leverage positions were liquidated, and chips changed hands at a low level. The whole process was so quiet it hardly seemed like something retail investors could have done. Let's look at some key points first. - BTC current price 84016, after a wick down to 80400 quickly recovered, MA5/10/20 started to diverge from convergence, the POC area is being rebuilt, and sell orders have basically been swept away. - ETH current price 2566, dipped to 2406 to lure out short sellers, large spot purchases appeared, whales are repositioning, currently probing the previous dense trapped zone. - SOL current price 112.4, after gaining local support near 106.71, volume contracted and consolidated, moving average structure remains intact, ETF expectations still provide emotional premium. - ZEC current price 1329, after dropping to 1112.27, volume surged with a V-shaped rebound, rising over 5.6% intraday, suppressed shorts in this low-liquidity asset are starting to show resilience. Putting these signals together, I feel the market is trading something different now. Previously, everyone feared further breakdowns; now the market is testing "how much selling pressure remains." The drop on 10.9 forced out the last panic chips, and the volume contraction and stabilization on 10.12 indicate active selling is decreasing. This is not a simple rebound, but more like a directional move after a chip structure reset.It exploded, this time it really exploded.
Sat dumbfounded in front of the screen for a long time, the DOGE position has completely disappeared. Last night I was still hoping for a forced liquidation price at 0.0813, less than 1% away from the current price. This morning when I opened my eyes, the dog whale didn’t even give me a chance to breathe, sending me off with a single spike. The cost of high beta is this bloody, with the bearish Bitwise ETF liquidation and the market crash, Dogecoin didn’t even struggle; the liquidation SMS became the final death knell.
Look at this devastated aftermath:
$ETH: unrealized loss of 486U, ROI -46.92%, current price 2456, forced liquidation price 2400. Only 2% away from zero. Institutions are continuously transferring ETH to exchanges, the selling pressure is like a mountain crushing down, yet I’m still holding full position stubbornly.
$BTC: unrealized loss of 19U, current price 82217. Even the big brother can’t hold 82,000 anymore. Middle East tensions escalate, ETF funds flee, tomorrow night’s CPI data is like a guillotine hanging overhead.
Yesterday I was still calculating a floating profit of 868U, today even more than half of the principal has been swallowed. In a one-sided decline, full position, 20x leverage, holding the position, every candlestick teaches me a lesson in life.
Trading isn’t about who earns the most, it’s about who survives longer. No more adding positions today, no more fantasizing about a V-shaped rebound. If ETH drops a little more, my principal will be completely wiped out. #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 #台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？