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ETH Today's Data Overview
The most noteworthy aspect of ETH right now is not how much it has dropped, but that contract positions remain high even as the price falls. The latest data shows ETH around $2670, down about 0.5% in 24 hours, yet the total open interest in contracts across the network still reaches $33.57 billion, far exceeding the spot 24-hour trading volume of about $3.7 billion.
What does this mean?
Simply put, the market has not clearly cooled down; leveraged funds are still active. The price has pulled back, but positions have not significantly contracted in sync, indicating that current volatility is occurring in a high-leverage environment. Meanwhile, ETH has been under continuous pressure over the past few trading days, and the market still lacks confirmation of a breakout above.
So what deserves more attention now is not a simple bullish or bearish judgment, but observing which changes first—positions or price.
Technically, the $2645–$2630 area is an important short-term support zone; above, the resistance band to watch is $2700–$2730. If positions change significantly when the price approaches these levels, the signal will carry more weight.
The real key may not be where ETH moves next, but which of these high-leverage funds moves first.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3%
Gold has dropped more than 3%, mainly because US Treasury yields have pulled the entire market's pricing back.
The 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.27% at one point, reaching the highest level since 2007; the 30-year yield even climbed above 5.5%, the highest since 2004.
Why such a big reaction from gold?
Because gold itself does not yield interest, when the 10-year Treasury can offer over 5%, the opportunity cost of holding gold naturally rises. Coupled with high oil prices and renewed inflation concerns, the market has started betting on further Fed rate hikes, strengthening the dollar. These pressures combined caused spot gold to fall nearly 4% intraday, hitting a low of $4110.
So the real focus now is still on US Treasuries:
If the 10-year yield stays above 5.2% or even breaks 5.3%, gold will continue to struggle in the short term;
But if yields spike and then retreat, this sharp drop in gold could attract funds back.
The biggest variable in the market is now clear:
Previously, everyone was guessing when rate cuts would happen,
Now the discussion has shifted to how many more hikes are coming.The morning session was quite boring. BTC at 83,158, down 0.33% in 24 hours, peaked at 84,374 then pulled back, lowest at 82,557. ETH at 2,669, up 0.55%, the strongest among the three brothers; SOL at 117.8, down 1.64%, the weakest. The biggest change today is in the funding rates: BTC funding rate flipped from negative yesterday to +0.0039% today. In plain terms: bulls weren't even willing to pay interest yesterday, but now they're willing to pay a little. Sentiment has shifted from giving up to cautious observation, that's all, no drama. Open Interest (OI) is 28,673 BTC (2.38 billion USD), basically flat from yesterday. Funding rate turning positive + OI steady = old players regained some confidence, no new money coming in. Simply put, 83,000–84,500 will continue to consolidate. Only breaking above 84,400 will bring new action; dropping below 82,500 requires caution. ETH funding rate at +0.007% is the highest among the three, someone is really buying — why it’s independently strong, I haven’t figured out yet. Which one are you watching today? Can ETH keep this momentum? Let's discuss in the comments. #BTCThe real big market for BTC and ETH in October may not have started yet
Many people have been stunned by the recent drop, but what I’m more focused on is: Is this decline the end of the trend, or a macro washout before the main rise?
Currently, BTC is still fluctuating around $83,000, and ETH is near $2,660. The short-term is indeed weak, but what has really pressured the market recently is not internal crypto crashes, but a sudden deterioration in external macro conditions—oil prices have surged back above $106, the US 10-year Treasury yield has risen to about 5.27%, and the market is re-pricing "longer inflation, higher rates." This is why gold, BTC, and risk assets have all been under pressure lately.
But the real key is the next month.
On September 30, watch the PCE; October 2, the non-farm payrolls; October 14, the CPI; October 27–28, the Federal Reserve FOMC; and October 29, the US Q3 GDP and a new round of PCE. These data will directly determine whether the market continues to price in high interest rates or starts to price in improved liquidity.
My focus:
BTC: First, see if $82k–$83k can continue to hold as support; below that, around $80k is a more important level.
ETH: Currently more elastic than BTC but also more vulnerable to macro shocks; around $2,600 is a short-term critical area to watch.
If employment and inflation data start to cool in October and US Treasury yields turn down, BTC and ETH are very likely to re-enter an accelerated trend $BTC $ETH #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
$HYPE finally started to drop
It seems like nearly 10 million tokens were unlocked again yesterday
With these large unlocks happening several times
Tens of billions of dollars worth of HYPE are flooding the market
If the project team sells off, can the market handle it?
$ZEC Yesterday, the green guy said he got it below 1000
I also want to get it below 1000
But when I woke up this morning, I saw he had already sold more than half
Wasn't it agreed to hold long-term?After multiple rounds of testing, the 825 level now belongs to $BTC's bottom support. If it breaks below this, it will be difficult to reach new highs in this cycle. Even if there is a rebound later, it can only be considered a secondary selling opportunity. If this level is lost, the structure will change.A batch sold again today from a position bought for over 50,000 eight years ago — ETH OG resells about 1,000 tokens.
According to Lookonchain/ChainCatcher on 9/29: This address bought 3,000 ETH about 8 years ago at an average price of approximately $18.8 each (around $56,500 at the time); today it resold 1,000 ETH for about $2.68 million. In total, it has sold 2,000 ETH at an average price of about $3,096 each, totaling approximately $6.19 million, and still holds 1,000 ETH valued at about $2.67 million; the total profit calculated is about $8.8 million, a return of approximately 156 times.
Sold does not equal remaining will definitely be sold; monitoring labels do not confirm real identity; cumulative profit calculations include holding valuations and fluctuate with market prices. At the time of writing, OKX ETH is about 2669. Not investment advice.
$ETH #ThisWeekWelcomesNonFarmAndPCEKeyData #StorageStocksPlungeAfterEarnings, Is the AI Memory Bull Market Still Stable?
CPI and retail data are approaching this week, Nvidia supply chain news stirs up the tech sector sentiment again, yet the crypto market has already entered a sticky wait-and-see mode.
XRP is tugging back and forth between 0.52 and 0.56, like a door being slammed by the wind. Chips chased in at 0.54 haven't warmed up before being shaken out, and those placing orders waiting for a 0.58 breakout are yawning at the order book. On-chain data tells a different story: the top ten addresses have net inflows exceeding 80 million coins in two weeks, while small addresses continue to flow out. Chips are clustering upward, but the price is nailed down — this divergence reflects the different intentions of big money and small retail; no one wants to flip the table first.
ADA is hovering around 0.38, softening at 0.395 and firming at 0.365. Holding long positions at 0.375, topping up a bit when it falls, trimming a bit when it bounces, letting the base position slowly wear down. Until the range breaks, spikes and sharp rallies are just noise; bulls lack the strength to counterattack.
DOGE has detached from the overall market rhythm, climbing from 0.12 all the way to 0.135. Coins with independent trends never care about others' moods, but the sharper the surge, the harsher the pullback. After being cleaned out by one-sided swings a few times, now it only watches from afar. In a choppy market, switching sides repeatedly is the worst; just went long and it dives, just went short and it spikes, ending up paying all the fees and spreads.
Before the data week arrives, staying put might be the safest move $BTC $ETH $ZEC 9.29 Daytime Gold Sharing:
1. On Monday, gold opened lower and then continued to weaken. The whole market can be summed up in two words: weak. After the low open, there was no decent rebound; European session was weak, US session was weak, and intraday almost gave the bulls no breathing room. This kind of trend has already written the answer on the chart: bears dominate, rebounds are just corrections, and a bullish candle means short.
2. Today's question is whether it can continue to break the bottom and keep falling, forming extreme weakness. This is key to whether the later trend will break the bottom. But no matter what, rebounds must be shorted; the difference is whether it is extremely weak shorts or rebound oscillation shorts.
3. Today's short positions will not be given too high; we rely on the early morning rebound high point to layout, watching the Asian session's inertia pullback. The early morning rebound high is the first intraday resistance; a further pullback must break 4100.
4. Pay attention to whether the European session can break yesterday's low. The earlier the bottom break, the weaker the trend, and the higher the probability of further decline. As long as the European session breaks the level, rebounds must be shorted. No short-term long positions will be taken; even if a rebound occurs, it is just a correction of yesterday's bearish decline. After the gold's downside space opens, the holiday decline will continue!
Trading ideas:
1. Short at early morning high $XAU 4140-50
2. If the European session directly breaks 4100, short on the rebound immediately
3. No long positions arranged for now $BTC #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% Some money is quietly moving from other people's pockets into yours.
Do you feel it?
Whale Lee Goon Wang placed a limit sell order on Hyperliquid yesterday for 15,000 ZEC, about 23 million USD. The order price was 30 dollars lower than the market price—a 2% discount.
Someone holding tens of millions in spot assets isn't selling slowly; they're slashing prices to sell off quickly.
Today he cleared out, with 1,740 trades totaling 22.96 million USD, losing 540,000 USD on single trades.
Even losing money, he has to run. What do you think he saw?
I entered a short at 1549 with 30x leverage, now floating a 275% profit.
On the daily chart, ZEC dropped from 1599 to 1412, all moving averages diverging downward, MACD dead cross followed by increasingly long green bars.
But what really convinced me wasn’t the candlesticks.
The EU's AMLR anti-money laundering regulation will officially take effect in July 2027, banning all regulated exchanges and custodians from providing privacy coin services.
ZEC’s privacy transfer function was directly named, and European compliant liquidity will be completely cut off.
Dubai’s financial regulator has already taken the lead, banning all licensed institutions from using Zcash.
Big money is retreating early, and regulations are tightening step by step.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#ZEC再创本轮新高，逼近1700美元 This $ETH short position just happened to coincide with the week of PCE and Nonfarm Payroll data.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
babala opened a new ETH short at 2695. Before this post, OKX ETH perpetual was around 2663.
In the short term, it has indeed fallen back below the cost line, but the direction going forward may be decided not only by the candlesticks but also by whether US inflation and employment data will change the market's judgment on rate cuts.
Let's first look at the upcoming PCE.
US July overall PCE rose 3.7% year-on-year, core PCE rose 3.3% year-on-year, inflation is still not low. August PCE will be released at 20:30 Beijing time on September 30, which will be the most direct macro variable for ETH at the moment.
If PCE continues to exceed expectations, it indicates inflation stickiness remains strong, the market may lower expectations for easing policies, the US dollar and US Treasury yields are likely to strengthen, and risk assets like BTC and ETH will come under pressure.
In terms of price, if ETH breaks below 2650 and then fails to hold 2633, the bearish structure will be further confirmed, and the next focus can be around 2600.
But if PCE cools significantly, and the market re-trades rate cut expectations, ETH may rebound quickly. On the upside, first watch 2680; after regaining 2695, the advantage of this short position will be significantly weakened; further reclaiming 2705, the price may test 2720 again.
After PCE, there is the September Nonfarm Payroll data to be released at 20:30 Beijing time on October 2.
The previous Nonfarm showed US added 162,000 jobs in August, unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, and average hourly earnings increased 0.3% month-on-month. The job market has not significantly slowed, so this Nonfarm will also affect the market's judgment on the future interest rate path.
If PCE is hot and Nonfarm is strong, it means inflation and employment are both resilient, and easing expectations may continue to retreat, which is bearish for ETH.
If PCE cools and Nonfarm slows moderately, it is more favorable for risk asset rebounds.
But if Nonfarm is too weak, it is not necessarily purely positive. The market may first trade rate cuts, then worry about rapid economic slowdown, causing ETH to experience two-way volatility with initial rallies followed by drops.
Therefore, we cannot just guess the data but must see where the price lands after the data release.
Below 2633 is the confirmation level for bearish continuation; if broken, look to 2600; above 2695–2705 is the zone where shorts weaken, and after stabilizing there, look to 2720.
babala will hold the new short at 2695 for now.
PCE decides the first round of direction, Nonfarm decides whether the market continues to believe in this direction. The truly important thing is not the data headline but whether ETH can break below 2633 or reclaim 2705 based on the data.$ETH eth faces resistance after a surge, key support levels explained at once
• Previous high resistance: 2807.67, after surging it faced pressure and fell back, moving in sync with BTC and SOL, encountering resistance on the rise
• Today's range: high 2720.81, low 2652.36, narrow oscillation and pullback
• SKDJ indicator: K:51.08, D:59.70, both lines downward, bullish momentum weakening
• Short-term key support: around 2635
✅ Market logic:
After ETH's previous rally reached the high of 2807, the upward momentum weakened, starting a high-level oscillation and pullback. Now it forms a pattern with BTC and SOL where major coins collectively surge and then retreat. Holding the 2635 support still offers a chance to retest the previous high of 2807; once effectively broken, the correction space will open.
⚠️Cryptocurrency is not legally protected domestically, market information is for sharing only and does not constitute investment adviceShort-term likely to have one more dip📊
Large long positions are piling up, the chips are too heavy, and it's hard to rally directly without a round of cleaning.
$ETH: 2630 is the key watershed. Between 2614–2632, there is an accumulation of $32.12 million in whale long positions, with 2613 as a liquidation concentration zone. If it breaks below 2622 and 2614, look down to 2550. Futures positions have decreased by 500,000 ETH in the past four days, leverage has fallen back to March lows, indicating active deleveraging rather than a trend reversal. Wait for liquidation to complete and to stabilize above 2630 before considering adding longs for a safer approach.
$ZEC: Market cap about 26.4 billion. Support at 1550, break below targets 1500; resistance at 1600 and 1685. The trend hasn't completely deteriorated, but volatility is very strong, chasing the rise is easy to get trapped.
$SNDK: Support at 1740, strong support at 1680; resistance at 1815 and 1900. The long-term logic for AI server NAND remains unchanged; after continuous rises, valuation is high, so buying the dip is better than chasing highs.
Summary: The market prioritizes cleaning leverage first, then a rally can follow. Small position trials are possible, heavy positions are strictly prohibited. Comfortable buying points require waiting for whale chips to complete liquidation.
$BTC $ETH $ZECIt was dropping nicely, so why the V-shaped rebound?
$ETH dropped down to 2633.
It looked like it was about to crash further.
But then a single candle shot it back up to 2684.
That one rebound pinned me down hard.
I opened a short at 2660.56.
Now the mark price is 2684.9.
Floating loss is -91%, only 26 dollars of principal left holding on.
Liquidation price is set at 2787, just 100 dollars away from the current price.
Is it just this 20U?
If I don’t short, you won’t go up, right?
Checked the news, got even more pissed.
Spot ETF had a net inflow of 2.4 billion last week.
Strategy added another 95 BTC.
Oil price at 105, US bonds broke 5%, rate hike probability soared to 75%.
Macro conditions are clearly crushing everything.
Yet institutions are holding real money and forcibly propping up the market.
When it dropped to 2633, I was still thinking I could make some lunch money.
Turned around, and the candlestick showed a dry-land spring onion shoot.
$BTC joined the party too, pulling from 82561 to 83424.
Everything on screen is rising, only I’m taking the hit.
Looking at -91% in my account, I lost all temper.
Cut it, afraid it would crash immediately.
Don’t cut, it’s about to explode.
It was dropping nicely, why go back up?
Do you have to drain all my margin to be satisfied?$BTC falls in sync with gold!
📊 【Data Breakdown: Market-wide Decline】
▶ BTC: reported at 83400.
▶ XAU (Gold): even safe-haven assets can't hold up, reported at 4125, a single-day plunge of 3.71%.
Why is everything falling?
① Super data week pressure: The PCE on September 30 and the Nonfarm Payrolls on October 2 will directly set the tone for the Fed's interest rate path. Big money chooses to exit early and seek safety before the data is released.
② Rising tightening expectations: High US Treasury yields exert pressure, with both risk and safe-haven assets falling together, indicating the market is frantically trading "liquidity withdrawal," not independent safe-haven moves.
💡 【Industry Deep Dive: Three Cold Showers and Harsh Truths】
🚨 4140 is not the bottom for gold, and 83000 is not the bottom for BTC.
🚨 Don't use gold's drop to prove BTC is a safe haven; both falling together shows they are liquidity trades driven by "too much money fearing inflation."
🚨 Technicals often crumble in the face of macro data, so don't try to guess the bottom.
(Source: OKX Planet 09/29)
$ETH #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 SanDisk, I really predicted it accurately, if you look carefully at the details you will understand
6 days ago, I boldly shorted at 1880 with a target of 1700, then I bet that no one would catch the SNDK downtrend at 1800, boldly aiming for 1700. Yesterday the price reached 1704 and started to rise, confirming the short position idea directly
Yesterday, I tried again to predict the long position, thinking many missed the short, so don’t miss this chance to go long. I realized that every time SanDisk breaks above 1800, there is heavy selling, then the support is around 1700-1640, so I chose to go long at 1650,
Unfortunately, last night the US stock market opened up then fell, the lowest dip was only to 1660, so we couldn’t catch the long, the order failed, but the idea was correct, there is strong support at 1700-1640, today it rebounded to 1700 and consolidated
The opportunity to trade again is still long
A rebound to 1800 is just a matter of time, but the support at 1700 is unstable and prone to selling, so going long at 1700 now is not wise, better to wait for another 1650 to go long
Many people have taken cheap chips of SNDK, buying cheap chips to go long is very safe# Latest Updates
- US-Iran negotiation deadlock, 2-year and 10-year US Treasury yields surged by 7.89 and 7.98 basis points to 4.93% and 5.23%, hitting new phase highs; VIX rose 8.07% to 16.07.
- Crypto collective pullback, BTC dropped to 83,500, ETH to 2,689; BTC ETF net inflow of $134 million last Friday; Guotai Junan and other Chinese brokers clearing mainland business, restricting IP deposits and purchases.
- Anthropic's prospectus reveals $518 billion computing power expenditure over the next year; OpenAI delays GPT-6.1 due to security; Nvidia adds $150 billion buyback authorization, AMD plans $8.2 billion acquisition of World Labs.
# Trading Analysis
- Maintain conclusion unchanged: sentiment volatility rather than fundamental collapse, focus on US-Iran talks and new AI narratives.
- US-Iran deadlock persists, Brent crude remains above $98, Fed hawkishness pushes 2-year and 10-year US Treasury yields to 4.93% and 5.23%, rising risk-free rates suppress high-valuation tech and crypto; Lagarde's dovish turn fails to ease US Treasury selling pressure.
- Bears worry about OpenAI Developer Day competition impact; Anthropic's $518 billion computing expenditure raises ROI concerns; bulls contest Nvidia's $150 billion buyback.Brothers, let me say this upfront, I'm not here to show off. In the crypto world, money comes fast and leaves like the wind. It's really not about luck; the rules are forged from lives lost in liquidations.
Contracts can indeed turn your life around overnight or wipe you out completely. My strategy is pretty wild: I split 300U into ten parts, taking only 30U each time, and go straight for 100x leverage. If the direction is right, one point doubles your money; if wrong, consider that 30U as a lottery ticket—if it’s lost, it’s lost.
In this kind of play, rules mean life.
Rule 1: Cut losses immediately, don’t fantasize. When I first entered the market, I kept thinking "hold on a bit longer," and ended up liquidated twice in a row. The market doesn’t care about anyone. Your stop-loss line is your lifeline; once it hits, close your eyes and cut. Accept losses and exit; it’s always smarter than stubbornly holding on.
Rule 2: After five consecutive losses, shut it down immediately. When the market is chaotic and the rhythm is off, forcing trades is just giving money to the market. I set a circuit breaker for myself: after five consecutive stop-losses, stop trading immediately and don’t touch it again that day. Usually, after a good night’s sleep, the market looks much clearer the next day.
Rule 3: Once you’ve earned 3000U, withdraw half first. The money in your account is just a number; it can vanish in an instant. I set a strict rule for myself: for every 3000U profit accumulated, withdraw at least half to a safe account. Only what’s in your hands is truly earned.
Rule 4: Only trade one-sided trends, avoid sideways markets. In strong trending markets, high leverage is a rocket. In sideways choppy markets, it’s a money shredder. When the direction is unclear.
That’s all from Da Ge, think it over $BTC Nonfarm payrolls hit on Friday
Everyone get your margin ready
There’s going to be a spike
Currently, all data looks pretty bleak
The yellow-haired guy won’t back down on Iran
There’s also an interest rate hike expected in October
US stocks are crashing hard
Yesterday, long positions liquidated reached 420 million
There probably won’t be a major upward channel this week
Most likely it will remain mostly sideways
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 $BTC's move today was indeed a bit unexpected.
After breaking below 82600 in the afternoon, it has been oscillating below 83000. I had originally prepared for a continued decline, but unexpectedly it pulled back later.
Taking a look at the external markets, it's mainly the US stock market setting the pace. When US stocks rebound, Bitcoin follows suit; the movements on both sides are quite synchronized.
However, I’m not too worried because I already reduced half of my position around 82800.
Not envious when it rises, not panicked when it falls.
In trading, you can’t always buy at the lowest or sell at the highest. Locking in profits is more important than anything.
Never let unrealized gains turn back into unrealized losses.
Actually, trading tests not only your skills but also your mindset.
The best way to deal with fear is to face it head-on, even prepare for failure. Being willing to accept the worst outcome actually reduces anxiety.
No one can get every step right, so there’s no need to keep looking back and criticizing your past self.
No regrets after making a move.
Once you’ve made a choice, accept the result and keep moving forward.
Many times, the decision itself is a step forward.
As for $ETH, it was also quite a rollercoaster today, dropping to around 2720 at one point.
I wonder how the brothers who shorted earlier are doing now?
The market is like this: the more certain you feel, the easier it is for a sudden reversal.
Leave room in your position, leave space in your mindset.
As usual: world peace 🌏
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 $CORE is riddled with vulnerabilities and irreversible
The current problems facing CORE are no longer just isolated technical flaws but a systemic collapse of trust. The project team responds with repeated "hard fork fixes," but these only repair the code and cannot undo the overissuance that has already occurred or heal the community's psychological trauma.
More critically, the project team consistently avoids three core issues, which are the fundamental hidden risks suppressing CORE's value:
1. Ghost tokens: CORE transferred out during the vulnerability period and unrecoverable has no plan for recall or destruction, becoming a looming selling pressure over all holders.
2. Lack of a complete incident report: The market does not know how long the vulnerability was latent or whether similar risks still exist in other code modules.
3. Core product delays: The SatPay product, which is the narrative cornerstone of "buybacks funded by ecosystem revenue," has been announced delayed, turning the buyback plan into an unfulfillable distant vision.
Code can be patched, but hearts and trust are hard to reset. What you are seeing now, the repeated back-and-forth, is precisely the project's last "performance" instinct after losing all intrinsic value.$RAVE/USDT is not only falling, it has dropped 8.2% within 24 hours.
$RAVE/USDT - Short · Confidence 82% 🟢
Trading plan:
Entry price: 0.1814 – 0.1822
Stop loss: 0.1849
Target price 1: 0.1795
Target price 2: 0.1779
Target price 3: 0.1756
Why choose this strategy?
- RSI is 48.96, indicating there is room to fall before oversold.
- The daily trend is bearish, so there is no resistance for this short.
Discussion:
At which point do you think this strategy fails?
$RAVE
#RAVE $BTC
⚠️ For personal market analysis only. Not financial advice - please manage risk and do your own research. This upgrade doesn't improve performance; it addresses the most critical issue for privacy coins—the ledger.
At the end of May, researchers found a vulnerability in Orchard's zero-knowledge circuit that allowed untraceable inflation of fake ZEC.
The problem is that this has existed since 2022, and the privacy chain cannot self-verify whether it has been exploited. At that time, ZEC's price once dropped nearly 50%.
Ironwood disables deposits to the old pool, migrates out with a rotating gate rate-limiting checkpoint, and all funds exiting the old pool must pass ledger verification.
This means the circulating supply can be independently audited and verified for the first time.
My judgment is that it provides supply-side certainty, not funds.
After this narrative, the real test is whether people are still willing to pay a premium for auditable privacy.
$ZEC $BTC #Zcash #PrivacyCoin This cracked me up, I didn’t expect $ZEC to break even so quickly 😂
I was already prepared to hold the position until next year
But today when I opened the exchange, I saw the funds had increased so much
Turns out ZEC recovered over 1000 points of unrealized loss
Now for me, every point of unrealized loss recovered from ZEC’s drop is a profit
After holding for so long, it suddenly started to drop
I actually feel calm inside
Unwinding at the $778 price doesn’t seem impossible?
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% $ZEC bears finally see some light.
Plunged straight down from 1695, a single-day drop of 9%.
Tens of millions in large holders and whales on-chain were all slaughtered by the dog traders, those who should explode did, those who should be cut did.
I, a small retail investor with only a few hundred U, actually survived until the end.
Could it be that the dog traders think my margin of just a few dozen dollars is too small to bother with?
Dubai dealt another blow, banning licensed exchanges from listing ZEC.
Russia and India also tightened their scrutiny.
No matter how hot the privacy narrative is, the institutional doors are all welded shut.
I don't even know which way the institutional door opens, just foolishly holding a short here.
$ETH is at 2658.
Stuck oscillating between 2633-2720, dragging me back and forth.
The short position was stopped out by a V-shaped rebound, just recovered a bit.
Last week ETF net inflow was 2.4 billion, MicroStrategy added another 95 coins.
Institutions are buying, retail investors are rushing in.
Everyone on the street is going long, only I am naked short.
$XAU is at 4134.
Rolled down directly from 4698.
Even safe-haven assets can't hold up, US bonds broke 5%, 75% chance of rate hike.
Macro pressure is suffocating everyone.
But the crypto market is stubbornly supported by ETFs.
ZEC is recovering, ETH is struggling, gold is watching the show.
Bears haven't made it through today yet, still holding on.The probability of a rate hike in October has risen to 70.9%.
If this week's non-farm payroll data strengthens again,
then the current expectation of a pre-rate hike pullback will continue,
somewhat similar to the adjustment before the rate hike in September SOL: INSTITUTIONAL ADOPTION GROWS AS PRICE LAGS
Solana has made serious progress. CME futures, Grayscale's Solana ETF and expanding institutional access are bringing SOL closer to traditional finance
Yet price still hasn't caught up
SOL recently traded near $118, well below its 2025 high of $294
$110 is the level that matters. Losing it signals weakness. Reclaiming $125 with strong volume would be the first sign sentiment is turning.
My take Watch not a long
#StablecoinPaymentRace
$SOL A large-volume decline does not necessarily mean a market crash, but it clearly shows that the divergence in capital has widened. On September 29, DOGE's trading volume reached 1.387 billion, a 46% increase compared to 951 million on the 27th. The price dropped from 0.097 to 0.093, a single-day pullback of 4%. With volume expanding and price weakening, chips are rapidly exchanging hands, and sellers temporarily hold the initiative.
This extra 46% volume increase essentially reflects a battle between two groups of funds: some profit-taking and stop-loss orders are exiting due to liquidity; another portion is placing orders at low levels, continuously absorbing selling pressure. If there were only sell orders without buy orders, the decline would be much greater, and volume would not expand. A 4% drop paired with a 46% volume increase indicates a capital defense line near 0.093, though the current absorption strength is still insufficient.
The main fleeing funds are short-term leveraged and those who entered at high prices. $DOGE previously accumulated a large amount of floating profit chips thanks to Musk-related hype and community enthusiasm. These funds are very sensitive to price fluctuations, and once absorption weakens, it can easily trigger a chain of forced liquidations. The absorbing funds fall into two categories: high-frequency traders speculating on short-term rebounds, and long-term holders viewing this pullback as a buying opportunity.
Going forward, focus on two key signals: whether the 0.093 level can hold. If it holds, this large-volume decline will gradually turn into a large-volume bottoming process; also watch the trading volume—only a volume contraction and stabilization indicate that selling pressure has basically been released. Volume leads price; observing chip turnover is far more reliable than blindly guessing the bottom. $DOGE #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 比特币7-9月，已经月线三连涨，2026年还剩下3个月，是否会延续涨势？ 从历史上的10月看，2013—2025年，13年时间里比特币10涨3跌，上涨概率：76.9%，平均单月收益率约 +17.2%，中位数月收益率约 +14.9%。 所以，如果单纯看历史统计，BTC的10月确实是一个明显偏强的月份。 然而今年的10月却面临着一个严重分裂的局面：比特币本身偏多VS大环境偏空。 从技术面看，比特币45周以来首次重新站上50周移动平均线，历史上这一信号通常标志着熊市低点的结束。 从市场数据看，长期持有者自2020年以来累计加仓逾300万BTC，供应量中约81%至少6个月未移动，筹码结构明显向长期持有者集中。比特币ETF上周录得净流入24亿美元，2026年单周最高，但逐日降低，多军动能减弱。 外部大环境看：美联储接下来大概率要继续加息，10年期美债收益率已触及5.12%-5.18%高位，美国-伊朗冲突不确定性持续，布伦特原油突破106美元，美元指数从100.95升至101.15。 10月三大央行：美联储、英国央行、日本央行先后进行议息会议，非农数据和PCE、CPI等经济数据穿插其中。 BTC到Although I may have only earned a small portion of it, reaching my kill zone already met my expectations. Profit and loss come from the same source; if I keep going, I might earn more or lose it back. Facing ideal profits, I don't want to give back any gains.
To put it simply, my entry logic is basically multiple points of resonance. I sensed the market's stagnation atmosphere, and this closely follows the US stock market. The US market feels like it's at the end of its strength, especially with SanDisk being directly broken through and Apple also surging then falling back. This position has already been taken profit on, which further solidified my idea.
I realized this was an opportunity with a very high risk-reward ratio, so I used all my remaining positions to go all in. I wanted to leverage up to 30x, but since this is spot trading, I could only leverage 10x, which is a pity.
Honestly, I am also playing it very safe, and I am willing to bet. This time, I really gambled. For positions with such a good risk-reward ratio, you have to dare to bet. $ZEC Hehe, yesterday I accurately predicted the short-term top because its trend diverged from $BTC and $ETH! Today it immediately dropped 10%. Considering the previous short positions that got stuck, I barely broke even. Now it seems like everyone's sentiment is that it will go to 1000, but if the community thinks that way, I have to hold a different view. I also said yesterday that it's a short-term top, not a long-term one. Under Grayscale's operations, it might stop falling around 1200-1300 and then continue to oscillate upward. Don't be fooled by the sharp drop now; it might rise back later. After all, Grayscale has the strength and means. For us retail investors, ZEC has never been an easy asset to trade. Chasing the rise or panic selling can easily get you trapped. My advice is if you want to short, control your position size and don't leverage more than 10x to leave yourself enough safety margin! $BTC $ETH Big coin long at 83000, stop loss at 81700, take profit at 85200. The structure before and during the move is very important. Are all three bearish engulfing candles? Yes. But look at the structure before and after each occurrence. The third time appeared after breaking through a range that lasted more than 2 months and liquidated 6B short positions. This is completely different from the previous two times, when the price was targeting shorts and almost none of the lower wick lows were taken out, making participants feel safe going long. The background is important. This clearly indicates the bottom has been established and higher prices are coming soon.Floating profits are harder to hold onto than floating losses!!!
Looking back at my historical positions, I just want to curse myself.
Shorted $ETH at 2782, ran away at 2706.
Made 223U, now it’s dropped to 2666.
The moment I closed the position, I knew it would fall.
But I was too scared, afraid the profit would retreat, so I handed the chips back to the market makers.
Then look at $UNI
Long at 5.744, never exited at the peak of 10.95.
Now it’s dropped back to 8.59.
Watching the profit drop every day is even more painful than being stuck in a loss.
$KMNO is even more disgusting.
It peaked at 0.05, floating loss scared me half to death.
Now it’s dropped back to 0.04, still a long way from breaking even.
The direction was right, but the position is stuck tight, neither up nor down.
Everything on the screen is falling.
ETH exited too early, UNI didn’t exit. KMNO is holding on stubbornly.
I got the direction right, but did everything wrong.
Others lose money by picking the wrong direction.
I picked the right direction but tortured myself to death with my own cowardice.
It’s not that my skills are bad.
It’s that these hands of mine were born unable to hold positions.
That’s just my temperament.
I deserve to miss out on the gains.
I deserve to only earn those few hundred bucks.Damn, BTC dropped from 85200 to 82556, then bounced back to 83066, and ETH and SOL also took a breather. Yesterday, a bunch of people were shouting to rush in, but today everyone is silent. After such a sharp drop, I'm actually hesitant to bottom-fish.
Looking at the 15-minute MACD, all three coins seem to be struggling to fall further, but prices are still below the moving averages. This is the easiest time to get faked out; a couple of bullish candles and some will call a reversal, but I don't want to pay tuition fees again.
For BTC, 83200 is the first hurdle; if it can't hold above that, it's all for nothing. If 82550 breaks again, 82000 will be tested. For ETH, until 2672 is taken down, I just watch; if it breaks through, then look at 2698, and if it falls below 2635, then wait for 2600. SOL is the weakest; it can't even hold above the 117.78 moving average. First, see if it can reclaim 118; only if it stands above 119.5 will I consider going long. If it breaks 116.37 again, I'll keep waiting.
On the futures side, open interest is decreasing, and funding rates are still negative, indicating that leveraged traders are shrinking. I still want to find opportunities to go long, but I won't rush in just because of one rebound candle. Today, I'll first see if BTC can hold above 83200 and check if this rebound has any momentum.#交易之声：Your experience deserves to be heard. Today's Q&A: When choosing long-term targets, do you value income, business model, or valuation the most?
To be honest, in the first few years after entering the circle, I kept staring at valuations, thinking a low P/E ratio meant a bargain. As a result, I bought quite a few "cheap" assets, only to find that cheap has its reasons—either the project itself was no good, or the management was unreliable.
Later, I gradually understood. Income growth is certainly important, but without a good business model to support it, growth might just be a false prosperity bought with burning cash. Valuation is more like a result—good companies are seldom cheap, and waiting for a "reasonable valuation" often means waiting in vain.
So now, the first thing I look at is the business model. It determines how the company makes money, whether it can sustain profits, and whether others can take it away. For example, selling the same goods, some rely on brand premium, some on channel monopoly, and some purely compete on price—the quality of the business behind these is worlds apart.
A good model speaks for itself. For businesses where customers can't leave, pricing power is in their hands, and cash flow is stable, even if the valuation is a bit high, as long as it's not outrageous, I'm willing to hold on. After all, time is a friend to good companies and an enemy to bad ones.
Income looks at rhythm, valuation looks at timing, but the business model determines whether investors dare to turn their backs on it. $BTC $ETH $ZEC BTC rebounded to 83,000, and ETH and SOL also started to stop falling. Yesterday, BTC was still fluctuating around 85,200, but quickly dropped to 82,556. ETH fell from 2,720 all the way down to 2,635, and SOL was even worse, surging near 125 before directly retreating to 116.37.
The drop was severe, but today I noticed signs of recovery in the 15-minute MACD for all three coins. The problem is, the price hasn't truly broken through short-term resistance yet. I don't want to pay tuition fees again just because of a couple of bullish candles and a shout of reversal.
BTC's MA20 is at 83,189, and the current price is still below it. My plan is to wait for it to firmly stand above 83,200, then watch 83,690. If 82,550 is lost again, the 82,000 level below will likely face a test.
ETH's MA20 is at 2,671, and MA10 at 2,662. Although a rebound has appeared, until 2,672 is taken down, I will temporarily treat it as a technical correction. After a breakthrough, watch 2,698; if it falls below 2,635, continue to observe 2,600.
SOL is currently the weakest, with MA20 at 117.78, and the price hasn't even stood above this moving average yet. Next, watch if 118 can be reclaimed; only after breaking 119.5 will I consider adding long positions. If 116.37 is lost again, I will continue to wait.
Earlier, the open interest in the futures market declined, and the funding rate turned negative, indicating that leveraged traders remain cautious.
I still want to find opportunities to go long, but I won't rush in just because of one rebound candle. Today, I'll wait for BTC to break through 83,200 and see if this rebound has any real momentum.After the early stage of a bull market begins, there will also be a wave of deep correction. A normal weekly-level correction is seen as a wick touching ma30/20, currently the higher of the two is 71600 (m30). Of course, the weekly data keeps changing, the key is to focus on the action of "touching" and when it happens! When it is close to touching, you can start entering the market in batches!
So for the first wave in the early bull market, if you missed it, there is no need to rush at all; the market will provide a second chance to get in!The essence of $CORE's repeated turmoil: a precise "obedience test"
The project team "deliberately creates crises, then resolves them, and creates new crises"... This repeated operation is essentially a psychological conditioning and obedience test for holders.
Draining your decision-making willpower: Each downtime, panic, and then "repair" consumes your energy and judgment. After several repetitions, you become exhausted by the "boy who cried wolf" effect, numb to the next crisis, and thus give up on proactive stop-loss, choosing to "lie flat."
Filtering the "most loyal" holders: This operation precisely filters out those "die-hard believers" who choose to trust and never sell no matter what happens. The project team needs these people because they won't create selling pressure at critical moments, thereby buying time for the project team's own exit or retreat.
OKX Orbit's analysis also confirms this: "Repeatedly exposing protocol-level errors that shouldn't appear on the mainnet gradually exhausts trust... No matter how much the code is patched afterward, a safety question mark has already been planted in the public's mind."US-Iran negotiations resume, sanctions and nuclear issues become the focus, risk appetite swings directly suppress high-beta assets like UNI. I lean short-term bearish with weak rebounds. Price slid from 9.39 down to 8.545, down 8.3% in 24 hours, with volume only 25.44 million. The volume contraction in the decline indicates bulls are unwilling to take over; the top 10 order book buy/sell ratio is 0.34, showing clear seller pressure. Funding rate is 0.01% but open interest is 5.794 million, shorts are crowded but not extreme, beware of a short squeeze. The 1-hour chart runs close to the low, only 0.08% above it; the 4-hour chart is in an uptrend structure but 20.24% below the high. The rebound first faces resistance at 8.92; losing 8.42 opens the downside. Suggest light short positions on rebounds to 8.87, stop loss at 9.16, target 8.28; if it sharply falls and stabilizes near 8.21, consider going long with stop loss at 8.02, target 8.75. Single position no more than 5%, keep stop loss tight.
— For personal reference only, not investment advice. Wish you successful trading. —
$UNI#美伊继续谈判，核问题与制裁成新焦点
#美伊继续谈判，核问题与制裁成新焦点 $UNI I officially started trading in 2020, and at that time my mindset was to fear declines and like rises. I experienced the crypto market crash on May 19, 2021. I also hit the A-share index bottom at 2600 in 2024.
Now my mindset has shifted to fearing rises and liking declines.
Risk is always the primary factor considered in trading.The number 2532 is not a prediction; it is an already placed order.
$ETH currently has two numbers pressing down on it.
One is 2532, the other is 2795.
Where does this money come from:
Long positions are bought with borrowed money.
When the price drops to 2532, the system sells out this batch of positions.
The sell orders then push the price down further.
How is this number calculated:
902 million is not a loss by a single person.
It is the sum of all forced liquidation orders below 2532 across all platforms.
The total sum calculated.
So 2532 is not a wall.
It is a row of dominoes.
Going up to 2795, it’s the opposite; short positions are bought back by the system.
Both sides are set up, only waiting for which price level is hit first.
The real point of interest is which of these two lines is touched first.
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高
#Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 #OKXNOW：未来已至，重磅内容正在揭晓 $ETH #ChainlinkCCIP2.0 officially launched, cross-chain narrative heats up boosting attention on the storage sector, SKHYNIX's short-term follow-up momentum is limited, I lean towards weak consolidation. On the capital side, the divergence between bulls and bears is obvious: 24h down 1.5% at 1291.4, turnover only 87,000, funding rate reset to zero indicates leveraged longs no longer pay to chase highs, open interest at 35,000 shows mainly stock game. 1-hour decline is only 1.41% from the low, while 4-hour still in an uptrend structure 4.88% from the low, short-term pullback has not broken the position; order book top 10 buy/sell ratio is 1.53, buy 302 sell 197, low-level support is relatively strong. Strategically, light long positions can be tried at 1273.6, stop loss below 1258.4, target 1308.5; if rebound stalls near 1319.2, a short position can be taken, stop loss 1332.8, target 1276.3. Single position no more than 5%, prioritize reducing positions when holdings diverge from funding rates.
— For personal reference only, not investment advice, wish you smooth trading. —
$SKHYNIX#OKXNOW: The future is here, major content is being unveiled
#ChainlinkCCIP2.0 officially launched $SKHYNIX #Tether has frozen nearly $550 million USDT related to Iran this year, tightening compliance and temporarily withdrawing off-exchange liquidity. This is bearish for mid- and small-cap contracts like $CL, but the impact is more on sentiment than on direct positions. Currently, 94.11 is consolidating sideways; a 1-hour uptrend and 4-hour downtrend form a cyclical divergence. The wide oscillation between 96.49 and 91.16 indicates no clear advantage for bulls or bears. The funding rate of -0.0104% shows shorts are slightly paying fees, with open interest at 477,000 coins and a relatively low trading volume of 22.069 million. The top 10 bid-ask ratio is 0.92, with sellers slightly stronger, and the rebound lacks momentum. Strategy 1: Short at 94.85 on the rebound, stop loss at 96.62, target 91.35; Strategy 2: Light long position at 91.28 on pullback, stop loss at 89.95, target 94.55. Total position size for both trades should not exceed 20%; exit immediately if broken, do not hold losing positions.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$CL#Tether has frozen nearly $550 million USDT related to Iran this year
#Tether has frozen nearly $550 million USDT related to Iran this year $CL $ZEC faces a sharp short-term sell-off
It’s crashing hard, the long-awaited correction has finally arrived📉
After such a long rally, it’s time to release some risk😮💨
From the 15-minute candlestick chart, the price has plunged from the high of 1599.50 down to the current 1394, a 5.98% drop intraday. Short-term moving averages have all turned downward, showing bearish pressure. The MACD’s DIF has sharply crossed below the DEA, indicating sustained bearish momentum, with the lowest dip reaching 1384.92.
This pullback is a concentrated profit-taking after the previous big rally. Privacy coins inherently have much higher volatility than mainstream coins, and with this week’s upcoming Nonfarm Payroll and PCE inflation data, plus geopolitical risks disturbing the market, funds are prioritizing withdrawal from high-volatility altcoins to seek safety.
Currently, bears dominate, so don’t rush to bottom-fish for a rebound. There is heavy resistance from trapped holders at high levels. Patiently observe whether the support at lower levels holds, as the timing of entry will directly determine the profit or loss of this trade.
$BTC $ZEC #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 Crypto Morning Brief | BTC Falls Back to 83,000, Oil Prices and US Treasury Yields Repress Risk Assets
In the past 24 hours, the crypto market has clearly weakened, with the core conflict shifting from ETF fund inflows back to macro interest rates and geopolitical risks.
① BTC has fallen back to around $83,000. International oil prices have strengthened again, the 10-year US Treasury yield briefly broke above 5.2%, and the US dollar rose in tandem. BTC came under pressure and retreated, with the total crypto market cap dropping about 2% at one point, and liquidation volume in the past 24 hours reaching approximately $330 million.
② The Middle East situation has become a new variable. Negotiations between the US and Iran have yet to make a breakthrough, and the market is re-pricing supply risks in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude has returned to about $106. If oil prices continue to rise, it may further strengthen inflation and Fed rate hike expectations, putting pressure on BTC and ETH.
③ ETF funds remain an important support for bulls. Last week, the US BTC spot ETF saw a cumulative net inflow of about $2.39 billion. Even though BTC’s weekly chart fell about 2.3%, institutional funds still maintained a significant net inflow.
④ ETH continues to test key resistance zones. ETH is currently oscillating near $2,700, with $2,750–$2,800 still important resistance; previously, ETH ETFs had a cumulative net inflow of about $600 million over four consecutive trading days.
⑤ Bitget has begun to resume withdrawals. After a security incident involving about $388 million, BTC withdrawals have reopened, and assets like ETH and USDT will be restored in phases. Indirect US-Iran talks are keeping the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear questions in the same negotiation frame, but disputed reports of concessions point to the harder issue: sequencing.
Oil giving back more than 4% suggests traders see less immediate supply-risk pressure, not a settled outcome. Until terms are aligned, any relief is likely fragile.
#USIranNuclearTalks NVIDIA announced an additional $150 billion stock buyback, risk appetite spillover has not yet transmitted to MMT, I judge it is still independently digesting selling pressure. The divergence between short-term rebound and long-term position is the biggest current contradiction. The rebound structure is fragile, caution is needed when chasing the rally. 24h down 1.8%, low 0.1696, high 0.1861, turnover 2.058 million, funding rate only 0.0039%, open interest 9.492 million, low long crowding. 1-hour distance from high -5.16%, distance from low 5.06%, 4-hour distance from low 41.96%, trend upward but heavy resistance above. Top 10 bid-ask ratio 1.31, buy orders 17,000 vs sell orders 13,000, short-term advantage but hard to hide mid-term divergence. Strategy: lightly buy on pullback to 0.1713, stop loss 0.1678, target 0.1842; if rising to 0.1857 resistance, short for a quick trade, stop loss 0.1889, target 0.1731. Position control within 20%, exit immediately if broken.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading.——
$MMT#英伟达追加1500亿美元股票回购
#英伟达追加1500亿美元股票回购 $MMT #Strategy再购BTC, multiple financial institutions simultaneously increasing holdings, market risk appetite is warming but failed to support SNDK. I judge that the short-term is still dominated by sellers; the rebound is a window to reduce positions rather than a time to chase more.
Down 1.8% in 24 hours, price 1699.2, turnover 414,000, buy orders only 295 levels versus 440 sell levels, strength ratio 0.67, sellers clearly dominant. Funding rate 0.0085% is neutral, open interest 45,000 with no panic exit, but 1-hour is declining, -5.49% from the high, 4-hour is rising but -10.43% from the high, resistance at 1762.9 is effective, key support at 1661.
Discipline first: light short at rebound to 1738.6, stop loss 1764.2, target 1672.5; if it pulls back to 1663.8 and stabilizes, can go short-term long, stop loss 1648.5, target 1706.3, single position no more than 5%.
— For personal opinion only, not investment advice, wish you successful trading. —
$SNDK#Strategy再购BTC, multiple financial institutions simultaneously increasing holdings
#Strategy再购BTC, multiple financial institutions simultaneously increasing holdings $SNDK Current status of the $CORE project team: a "zombie" project oscillating repeatedly between "fake death" and "resurrection".
The truth behind the "resurrection" of the staking website
The website being accessible again does not mean the project team has a change of heart or is preparing to resume operations. It is more likely a passive, extremely low-cost "life extension" maneuver.
Maintaining the "zombie" state: as long as the frontend can be opened, it can give outsiders the illusion that the project is still operational, preserving a theoretical liquidation channel for the project team's remaining tokens. Completely shutting down the website equals admitting abandonment, which would immediately trigger legal accountability and comprehensive delisting from exchanges. Maintaining the facade of "technical maintenance" is the lowest-cost delay strategy.
A byproduct of technical operations: reviewing the validator vulnerability incident in early September, Core DAO completed an emergency hard fork on September 3. After a brief website outage, it was restored, likely a technical result of the network restart and frontend service redeployment following the hard fork, rather than the project team actively "paying fees" to improve the service.A 900 million long position is just hanging below 2532.
First question: Is that number scary?
Scary. But what's scary isn't the 900 million, it's where it's placed—not far from the current price.
Second question: Who most wants it to be swept?
Market makers. This dense liquidation zone is ready-made liquidity; they just need to poke a needle in, clear all the orders, then pull the price back, at very low cost.
So what should retail traders do?
Don't heavily long above 2532, and don't place your stop loss exactly at that level. What you think is a stop loss is a menu to them.
To put it plainly, this data isn't a prediction; it's laying the cards on the table for you—there's a juicy piece below, and everyone wants a bite.
The blunt truth: surviving this position is more important than being right about the direction.
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高
#Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 $HYPE