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#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Still doubting Hynix $UNI Arthur Hayes' associated address just dumped 320,000 $UNI to market makers, then immediately cashed out over 2.4 million USDC.
Constantly shouting about a big bull market on Twitter, but cashing out the chips in hand first. Market makers can't hold this batch themselves; they have to hedge by selling it on the secondary market.
The order book is already thin on buy orders, and with big players openly leaving, don't expect any decent rebound in the short term.
#UNI
$UNI
👇The 80000 level, once broken, breaks quickly.
It's not a flash crash, but a slow grind down. On OKX, $BTC just fell below 80000, reporting 79990, down 0.80% intraday; on Bitget, it's even lower at 79955, down 1.15%. The breach of a round number level is honestly never calculated, it's created by liquidity stacking.
But what's more worth watching is the activity on the futures side. In one hour, the price dropped 0.47%, while open interest (OI) actually rose 0.69%, price down but positions increased — this isn't bulls cutting losses and exiting, it's new shorts coming in. OKX account long-short ratio is 1.35, retail traders are still slightly long, but the futures side has quietly added shorts. The funding rate is only 0.0066%, crowding is low, so don't expect a big short squeeze crash.
The Fear and Greed Index is 50, neither panicked nor euphoric, just neutral. USDT is down 0.02%, almost unchanged, indicating money isn't flowing into stablecoins.
My feeling is: this drop isn't fierce, but there aren't many buyers below. Once the round number breaks, the psychological line loosens first. 📉 After the midterm elections, will BTC go through another "pullback scenario"?
Reviewing public history:
🔹 After the 2018 midterm elections, BTC experienced a deep correction, with a maximum drawdown of about -50%;
🔹 In the post-2022 election phase, BTC also weakened, with a maximum drawdown of about -25%.
There aren't many samples from these two rounds, but there is a common point: after the election results, the market did not immediately strengthen; instead, a significant pullback occurred. The next midterm election is on November 3, and the time window is now in sight.
History won't copy answers exactly, but capital sentiment, macro expectations, and volatility rhythms often rhyme similarly. Both post-election periods saw deep corrections—will this repeat, or will new variables rewrite the script? 🤔
What do you think: is the post-election market "fall first then stabilize," or "this time it's different"? Feel free to share your observations. 👇
This is only a summary of public historical data and does not constitute any trading advice.
$BTC
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ On Saturday, when reporters asked Trump about the possibility of striking Iran, he said, "Considering it, maybe tomorrow." But no strike happened on Sunday, and oil prices actually opened lower that evening.
According to CNBC data, Brent fell about 1.1% to around $115 on Sunday night, and WTI dropped about 1.2% to around $102. On Friday, Brent had just closed at 116.72, the highest since April, and WTI closed at 103.27. S&P futures rose 0.4%, and Nasdaq futures rose 0.6%.
Why didn’t the "strike tomorrow" statement push oil prices up? I think the market has already read the timing. The Hill cited insiders saying the Central Command’s strike plans are ready, with several options on the Defense Secretary’s desk, just waiting for the White House’s approval, with a general expectation for after the November 3 midterm elections. Eurasia Group’s Iran expert bluntly said the likelihood of striking after the election is quite high. The tough talk over the weekend seems more like negotiation chips.
But don’t think the alert is over. On Sunday, the Iranian military claimed to have shot down a US drone over Abbas Port, and Foreign Minister Araghchi said the management of the Strait of Hormuz "won’t be the same as before." Iranian officials earlier told Reuters that if attacked, they would target undersea cables and military bases in the Gulf. Saudi Arabia intercepted Houthi drones and missiles again on Sunday. The US has over 50,000 troops in the Middle East and two carrier strike groups.
The Fed meeting is on Wednesday, with Bank of America betting on a 25 basis point rate hike. Oil prices not falling gives the Fed more reason to stay hawkish.
The next week or so will be the toughest. Hold energy stocks with stop losses set, and for those betting on cooling, hold low-leverage, low-multiple long-term positions $BZ Revenue up 26% but still dropped nearly 7%, I’m holding off on buying $META for now
Here’s what I see: Q3 revenue was $64.6 billion, up 26% year-over-year, beating expectations.
Free cash flow turned negative at -$2.12 billion, the first time burning cash in over a decade.
Full-year capital expenditure lower bound raised to $135–145 billion, CDS hit a new high.
Closed around 642.6 last Friday; Nasdaq futures rebounded about 0.6% in Monday’s Asian session.
My take: The ad business isn’t collapsing; the sell-off is about the "burning cash for AI" narrative.
This week, earnings from $MSFT, $GOOGL, and $AMZN cloud businesses are even more critical than buying $META.
What I’m doing: Watching, not chasing, not catching a falling knife.
Need to hold above 670 to confirm; if it breaks below 610, this rebound narrative fails.
Do you think AI spending is being repriced, or is this just overreaction ahead of earnings season?
$META $QQQ $NVDA
#USStocks #EarningsSeason#HOODQ3TradingGrowth After the peak inflow of funds into Bitcoin at a scale similar to the previous time, BTC price reached a peak within a few weeks. Large inflows into exchanges may signal increased potential selling pressure, but transferring funds does not necessarily mean actual selling has occurred, and historical trends do not guarantee this time will be the same.Woke up this morning and saw the oil prices, felt stunned. The conflict between the US and Iran is escalating, Brent crude surged to $115, up nearly 90% this year, while gold actually fell below 4000. Risk assets are collectively being pressured by geopolitical frictions, and $BTC is wobbling along.
But looking at some interesting data: institutions are still quietly moving on-chain. JPMorgan Chase moved JPM Coin onto the Ethereum mainnet, the global tokenized asset scale has reached $38.8 billion, and HSBC directly pushed stablecoins to 3.3 million Hong Kong users. This time $ETH is being used with real money, not just talk.
$HYPE's buyback machine hasn't stopped either; in the past 30 days, on-chain USDC supply rose to 7.18 billion, estimated to have sent about $15.1 million to the aid fund in early November, with an annualized total buyback and burn of 180 million. War is war, but the on-chain money printer keeps running.
$BTC looks at geopolitical moods in the short term, but the RWA narrative is getting stronger despite the dips. Don't just focus on the candlestick charts; watching where the money flows is the real deal.
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ Over the weekend, BTC hit a low of 79,146, a new low in over a month. Liquidations exceeded $800 million in 24 hours, with long positions accounting for about $689 million (Coinglass data). What does this look like? Like in a relationship where the other party hasn't spoken yet, but you imagine a breakup drama yourself. Treating leverage as a sense of security, only to have that security wiped out overnight. Now the price is back just above 80,000, around 80,500 at the time of writing (data for the day, real-time prevailing). The real focus this week is the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting from October 27 to 28. The market is no longer guessing whether there will be a rate cut, but whether the Fed will be more hawkish. The trouble lies in oil prices—Brent crude once stood above $117. High oil prices make it hard for inflation to come down, so the Fed won't be gentle with the market. The 10-year US Treasury yield is also near 4.98%. When money has other places to go, it’s not in a hurry to fall in love with the crypto market. Another detail worth noting: Strategy recently spent $193 million to buy back preferred shares, while only purchasing 267 BTC in the same period. Treasury companies are starting to be more frugal. This buying is not an endless refill. My view is simple: don't get carried away before the meeting; watch the attitude afterward. Technically, everyone is watching the supports at 78,400 and 77,876. The 50-day moving average is around 81,700. Only after standing back above that can we talk about sentiment recovery. In relationships, the worst is not breaking up, but putting all your assets on the belief the other party won’t leave. The market is the same—leave room in your position, so your mindset has room. This is not investment advice. Watch the market rationally and have a good breakfast first. #BTC #FederalReserve #FOMC #CryptoMarket #Macro Cheap is not a reason to buy; the future potential to rise is.
$STRK, $NEAR, $BCH — the three underrated brothers, with completely opposite money printing logics: one just unlocked and dumped, one cut inflation to the floor, and one simply has zero inflation.
STRK just finished dumping after unlocking, and now there's a minting proposal. After the batch of over 100 million unlocked in mid-October pushed the price down, the official team proposed a minting plan, capping inflation at 4% annually, calculated by the square root of the staking rate.
Short-term supply is capped, but long-term supply is still increasing; 0.8 is probably not sustainable, expect to see 0.6 first, waiting for chips to settle.
NEAR’s inflation halved, most like a value stock. Inflation cut from 5% to 2.5%, Intents is running, making it the most stable among the three. If it doesn’t break 4.5, there’s still hope; Agent economics has been explained for a year and finally has clarity.
BCH’s zero inflation, most suitable for payments. Like BTC, it has a fixed cap of 21 million and will never increase supply, accepted by over 3,000 merchants, with CME futures plus Grayscale ETF dual channels. I estimate it will hover around 275; if the pullback doesn’t break support, just hold it. #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ $BTC $ETH PONS's buyback ammunition is running out fast.
On Robinhood chain, PONS originally had two million USD lying in the buyback channel, continuously using this money to buy on the market. Now only a bit over two hundred thousand USD remains, and at the recent spending pace, it won't last long.
The real point of interest is not that the money is less, but what will happen after the money runs out.
The buyback speed will switch from relying on inventory to relying on income. Yesterday, the protocol income on this chain was 55,000 USD, of which 80% was used for buyback and burn, roughly 44,000 USD per day. At the current price around 0.24 USD, about 150,000 tokens can be bought daily.
The comparison is straightforward: previously, there was a two million USD stockpile supporting the price; afterward, daily cash flow of 44,000 USD supports it, a difference of more than one order of magnitude.
This structural switch is worth monitoring. When inventory supports the price, the price is insensitive to income; after switching to cash flow-driven, the income curve directly determines the strength of the buy orders—if income drops a bit, the buy orders reduce significantly.
My view is, in the short term, don't expect it to be supported like in the past few weeks. In the medium term, it depends on whether the protocol's real income can hold at the 40,000 USD level: if income itself is rising, the burn slows but is more genuine; if income is also declining, that's a double hit.
Only two numbers need to be watched: daily buyback burn volume and daily protocol income, both can be checked on-chain.PONS's buyback funds are running out quickly.
There was originally two million USD in the channel, now only a bit over two hundred thousand remains.
Once the funds hit bottom, the buyback speed has to return to real income: yesterday's protocol revenue was 55,000 USD, 80% of which goes to buybacks, about 44,000 USD daily, able to buy around 150,000 tokens.
Previously it was supported by existing reserves, now it’s supported by cash flow, with a tenfold difference in scale.
From now on, only two numbers matter: daily buyback volume and daily protocol revenue. If revenue can’t hold above 40,000, there’s little hope for the price.Retail investor stronghold Robinhood is about to report! Its trading volume is the crypto market's sentiment thermometer
This Q3 earnings season, the most worth watching for us in crypto isn't Apple or Google, but the retail investor stronghold Robinhood. Why? Because it has over 27 million retail accounts on its books, and the enthusiasm for buying and selling crypto is directly reflected in its trading volume, $ETH
First, the expectations: institutions estimate this quarter's revenue to rise 19% year-over-year, with a bullish stance. Breaking it down, August's nominal crypto trading volume surged 61% month-over-month to $17.5 billion, indicating that retail investors, dormant for two months, are itching to get back in and start trading. But don't get too excited yet; year-over-year it still fell 38%, no comparison to last year's bull market wave, more like a "last gasp" rebound. $BTC
More interestingly, it's branching out into public chains: Robinhood Chain has been live for only three months, with on-chain transactions exceeding 750 million, weekly revenue of $15.85 million, surprisingly surpassing Coinbase and Hyperliquid. They've even issued stock tokens and planned perpetual contracts, clearly aiming to transform from a broker to an exchange to grab a share of the market.
Honestly, whether the earnings are good or not hinges on whether crypto trading volume can sustain this month-over-month rebound. If retail investors truly return, the crypto market will have fresh vitality; if the volume drops again after a brief surge, it means everyone is still lying low and watching. Today HOOD fell 1.24% first, the market is also waiting for its report.
Those of us trading contracts can also use it as a mirror: is retail sentiment really warming up, or is this just another false move.#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
SK Hynix is preparing to announce a $12 billion special dividend! Is this a positive signal before the earnings report?
This $12 billion is not diverted from daily operating cash flow but is the equity exit gain from SK Hynix's early participation in Bain Capital's consortium acquisition of Kioxia. Compared to the fiercely competitive and profit-margin-volatile traditional NAND flash business, cashing in on the financial investment in Kioxia reflects management's asset allocation logic of "focusing on high-margin HBM and advanced DRAM while shrinking the non-core NAND front."
Thanks to the monopoly-level premium of HBM3e and the next-generation HBM4, SK Hynix's own operating cash flow is already sufficient to cover nearly 30 trillion KRW in annual expansion capital expenditures and has achieved a transition from net debt to a "net cash" position. Management's confidence to distribute the entire unexpected windfall of 16 trillion KRW fully reflects extreme confidence in the main business's cash flow over the next 1-2 years.
Whether SK Hynix, Samsung, or Micron, after experiencing the last cycle bottom, all have restrained from blindly expanding general capacity, locking capacity according to orders.
Every penny earned in the past must be invested in building next-generation fabs to maintain market share. Now, after meeting the highly certain AI computing power demand, leading manufacturers are beginning to return excess free cash flow and investment income to shareholders through special dividends or buybacks, like mature tech giants. This marks that the storage chip leaders are trying to break away from the pure cyclical stock valuation framework and move toward becoming high-quality cash cows.ERA current price 0.09147, the price on the one-hour level has indeed stood above the moving average resistance, MACD histogram is strengthening, the proportion of active buying has increased, short-term bulls still have momentum.
But the liquidation map is more critical, there is a large amount of long liquidation chips lying between 0.068 and 0.088 below, while long liquidation above is almost blank. Under this structure, continuing to push higher lacks short squeeze fuel, and is more likely to create a bull trap near resistance zones, then reverse downward with a wick to consume liquidity below.
Just finished delivering an order to the old residential area on the seventh floor, out of breath, eyes never left the market.
In terms of operation, do not chase the rise. If the price surges to the 0.0930 to 0.0950 area with volume contraction and stagnation, you can lightly try shorting, with a stop loss set above 0.0980. The first take profit target is 0.0850, the second take profit target is 0.0780. If you already hold long positions, actively reduce most near the current price, move the stop loss of the remaining position below 0.0870, don’t wait for a wick to come down before running.
This market is about eating liquidity; chasing in easily becomes fuel.
$ERA
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？
@OKX星球 "A 2.06% drop corresponds to 103%, a 2.11% rise brings it back to zero — these two numbers differ just a little, I’m not miscalculating."
When it drops, the entry price is used for calculation; to break even, the current price is used, so the denominator changes, making it always a bit harder to break even than the drop percentage. This is exactly how ZEC is now: a 2.06% drop requires a 2.11% rise to break even, with 25.38 points in between.
What are 25 points on $ZEC? Just a small normal daily swing. So this trade doesn’t need positive news or a trend reversal; a technical rebound alone is enough to erase it. 50x leverage magnifies this range to 103%, and similarly magnifies the 2.11% rebound to zero — bigger range doesn’t mean safety.
The market holds: lower lows, rebound with shrinking volume, 1229.97 hasn’t been reclaimed. So I didn’t fully exit, but I don’t dare to add more.
Push to break even, minimize exposure. Follow down to 1150 if 1160 breaks, admit mistake and exit if it returns above 1229.97. Only realized profits count as gains; what’s on the screen will fluctuate — I said this three times tonight. $ETH $BTC
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ BTC rose 1.42% in a single day, but the weekly chart still fell 0.30%. Is this rebound the start of a trend reversal or just a continuation of the downtrend? First, the news. Today's data: BTC at $80,933.5, 24h +1.42%, past week -0.30%; 20-day range from 79,220.1 to 86,693.7. On the capital side: ETF net inflow of 29.2 million in a single day (eighth consecutive day), 5-day net inflow of 202.3 million, 10-day net inflow of 299.4 million. On the sentiment side: Fear & Greed Index rose from 51 to 54. On the macro side: Dollar Index 101.81 (+0.20%), Gold 4,007.9 (-1.29%), S&P 500 7,623.68 (-0.52%). Next, looking at capital impact. The quality of the rebound depends on whether capital and macro factors align. Today's situation: capital is flowing in (ETF for eight consecutive days), sentiment is recovering, gold is falling (risk-off retreat), but the dollar is strengthening and U.S. stocks are falling. Among these four factors, three are positive and one is negative—so a rebound has occurred, but its strength is limited. Implications for BTC: the weekly chart is still negative, indicating this is not yet a trend reversal. Two conditions are needed for a trend reversal: first, the weekly chart turns positive; second, the price breaks above the previous high of 86,694. Neither condition is met now. So this looks more like a "correction within a downtrend" rather than "the start of a new upward rally." I will be watching four indicators next: first, whether the weekly chart can turn positive; second, whether BTC can break 86,694; third, ETAPR this trade hit the target 😎
Last night before 9 PM I said: After APR doubled in one day, the high points are moving lower, the peak at 0.0548 in the afternoon, the rebound in the evening only reached 0.0468, no shorting yet, wait for a pullback to 0.0445-0.0455 to short, stop loss at 0.0490, target 1 at 0.0375.
Actual movement:
· 21:45 pulled back into the entry zone, highest touched 0.0454
· 01:15 at night surged to 0.0482, still some distance from stop loss, no stop hit
· 08:50 this morning dropped to 0.03735, target 1 at 0.0375 achieved
Calculating from the middle of the entry zone at 0.0450 to target 1, that's a -16.7% price drop, this short position profited nicely.
The logic is actually simple: a small cap coin that doubled, each high is lower than the last, funding rate is still positive, bulls haven't been fully flushed out, so the pullback is the opportunity.
Now around 0.038, still some way to target 2 at 0.0335, if still holding, my approach is to move stop loss to cost, let it run if it can, take profits if it can't.
Did any of you short together last night?
Past performance does not indicate future results, DYOR
#APR #ContractReview #AltcoinBitcoin hovered around the 80,000 mark all weekend, and people are still stuck inside without breaking out.
On Saturday, the lowest point hit 79,146, a new low in over a month. Now it's back near 80,000, but it’s still down about 1% in the last 24 hours. Ethereum is at 2,324, down about 1.5%, SOL is around 101, and altcoins overall are weaker than Bitcoin. This isn’t rotation; it’s risk aversion.
This round of decline has little to do with the crypto market itself; the sell-off is driven by macro factors. After the rate hike in September, the FOMC decision is at 2 AM this Thursday. Over 90% of the market expects no change, but the pricing for another hike in December is already over 70%. More troubling is oil prices: Brent crude has risen above $117, a multi-month high. There’s ongoing tension in the Middle East, inflation expectations can’t be suppressed, and the Fed is stuck—unable to tighten or ease. Risk assets are falling first as a precaution.
The funding situation is even clearer. Over the weekend, liquidations across the network exceeded $810 million, with longs accounting for about $690 million. Liquidity is thin on weekends, and after breaking below 80,000, leveraged longs were crushed in a chain reaction. ETFs saw a net inflow of $300 million last week, ending two consecutive weeks of outflows, but on Thursday and Friday combined, there was an outflow of $770 million. Institutions are clearly reducing positions ahead of the decision. In terms of levels, 79,700 is near the weekend low; if the close breaks below that, the next support is at 77,600. Timing-wise, the real trigger points this week are the FOMC at 2 AM Thursday and the US Q3 GDP and September PCE at 8:30 PM Thursday. Before that, it’s likely to keep grinding around 80,000. Don’t chase pumps or dumps in the middle; wait for the decision to provide direction. #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ 1. Current status of HBM4: Q3 is only a small-scale trial supply, not a main product
Timeline: HBM4 will start mass production and shipment in 2026 Q2, with Q3 in the capacity ramp-up phase; shipment volume accounts for a small proportion of total HBM; large-scale volume increase is scheduled for the second half of the year (Q4), coinciding with the mass deployment of Nvidia Rubin GPUs. HBM4 will become the main HBM model only in 2027.
Pricing and cost: HBM4 outperforms HBM3E in performance, bandwidth, and energy efficiency, with an ASP (average selling price) higher than HBM3E; however, stacking and packaging costs are higher. The unit cost of HBM4 is 30%~40% higher than HBM3E. Although the selling price is increased, the unit net profit improvement is limited, and yield is still being optimized during the ramp-up phase, which will initially suppress profit margins.
Order model: Most HBM4 orders are under multi-year long-term agreements (LTA), with prices locked in advance, so they cannot benefit from short-term spot price surges like general-purpose DRAM. This is a market concern: spot prices for general DRAM have surged, but HBM long-term contract pricing is conservative, dragging down overall ASP flexibility.
2. Core profit driver of Q3 earnings (not HBM4)
HBM3E remains the main profit driver for HBM: HBM3E yield is mature, production capacity is large, and the HBM business overall contributes more than half of operating profit; HBM accounts for only 20% of DRAM shipments but contributes over half of the profit. Q3 HBM segment profitability mainly relies on HBM3E deliveries, with HBM4 incremental volume very small. $FIL According to WallStreetXHQ on-chain statistics: FIL custody by OKX accounts for 10.5% of the total circulating supply across the network, with holdings reaching 35 times the size of the Grayscale FIL Trust.
But here is a key point that is easily confused: these tokens are spot assets held by miners and users on the platform, not proprietary chips owned by the exchange.
The Grayscale FIL Trust itself is small in scale, so the multiple difference is huge; OKX is more like a massive reservoir of existing chips.
Its dual nature:
If withdrawals continue and tokens leave the platform to enter on-chain staking, the circulating supply shrinks, which can catalyze the market;
If deposits keep increasing, it indicates strong willingness to cash out, which will suppress rebound potential in the long term.
This is also a pain point that FIL cannot avoid: a large amount of produced tokens ultimately settle on exchanges, ready to be cashed out at any time, creating a thick base of selling pressure.10.26 Monday BTC and ETH Strategy
BTC is currently around 80,000, ETH around 2,324. Weekend lows were 79,178 for BTC and 2,281 for ETH, with over $800 million liquidated, mostly long positions.
Don't consider 80,000 as a bottom. Bulls repeatedly defend but the rebound lacks strength, with highs continuously decreasing. ETH is weaker, down nearly 13% this month, BTC only 4.7%, and ETH/BTC continues to decline. Ethereum ETF saw an outflow of about 1.08 billion in October, the largest monthly outflow this year.
Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of 301 million last week, but on Thursday and Friday combined, there was an outflow of 770 million. Money is moving quickly in and out of single products, not a stable return flow. Brent crude remains above 110, and hawkish remarks before the FOMC are easily amplified.
Trading reference:
BTC: Short on rebound between 81,000-81,800, target 80,000; if broken, look for 79,000 and 78,000.
ETH: Short on rebound between 2,350-2,370, target 2,330-2,300; if broken, look for 2,250-2,200.
$BTC $ETH #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ BTC spot ETF funds have recently shown a pattern of "fast in and fast out": on October 21, there was a net inflow of about $525 million, followed by a net outflow of $636 million on the 22nd, and another outflow of $138 million on the 23rd, totaling approximately $774 million withdrawn over two days, turning the cumulative October figure negative again. The narrowing outflow does not mean institutions are re-entering; it looks more like a temporary easing of selling pressure, with buying sentiment still hesitant.
Technically, after the price broke below the 50-day moving average, it has been trading below the short-term moving averages. The 7-day, 20-day, and 50-day moving averages are clustered around 81,800–82,400, MACD histogram is flattening, RSI is about 43, and the stochastic indicator is oversold but without reversal confirmation, indicating a stalemate of "unable to fall further, but also unable to rally."
Currently, the key levels to watch are: above, 81,000–82,000 is the previous box retracement zone; regaining and holding this level is necessary for recovery space; further up is the strong resistance zone at 84,000–85,000, where trapped positions are dense. Below, 80,000 is the short-term bullish defense line, and 79,200–79,500 is the core bottom line of this rebound; a daily close below this would signal a weakening trend. $BTC The five spot XRP ETFs have a cumulative net inflow of about 1.81 billion, with an average price still around 1.72, current price about 1.30, floating loss about 25%. The "$XRP" institutional cost line here seems too far from the current price.
According to cryptoetf metrics: cumulative net inflow about +1.81 billion USD, net asset value about 1.48 billion.
YTD inflow is about 643 million.
On Friday, the five combined had a net flow of 0; the most recent trade was on Thursday with XRPZ about +3.5 million.
In the last 10 trading days, the total is only about +13.3 million, the pace has clearly slowed.
More strikingly, the estimated average price is about 1.72, compared to the closing price of about 1.30, roughly -24.7%.
None of the five have costs below the current price; about 334/346 days' prices are all below the average cost.
I acknowledge the product side still holds on the books, but I don't believe the "institutional bottom" has been made near 1.30.
I'll keep an eye on this price first.
First watch for support around 1.285–1.30, then a rebound back to about 1.31–1.316.
If the 4H closes below about 1.285, it may loosen towards the weekend low near 1.25.
Do you believe this is slow accumulation yet to be realized, or will the floating loss cost continue to suppress the rebound?
$XRP
#Today'sMarketTalkThe Federal Reserve is meeting again this week, and $BTC is still hovering around $80,000. Not raising rates this time might not even be considered good news.
Looking at the market first, BTC is around $80,200 today, with a 24-hour low touching $79,809. The $80,000 level is once again being fiercely contested.
Now looking at the Fed, the interest rate decision will be announced on October 28. The current rate is between 3.75% and 4.00%, and the market widely expects no change this time.
Here's the interesting part.
In the latest Reuters survey, out of 100 economists, 94 expect no rate hike in October, but all 100 expect one more hike in December.
In other words, the market's real dilemma isn't whether there will be a hike this week, but how long the hikes will continue afterward.
Especially with oil prices rising sharply recently, Brent crude once surged to $116. High oil prices make it harder to bring down inflation, so the Fed can't easily ease up.
Another point is that the US PCE inflation data will be released on the 29th. If the Fed just spoke and the data the next day exceeds expectations, the market could still turn around.
What is most feared now is not a Fed rate hike, but the market thinking the bad news is over, only to find out there is more to come. #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ $IRYS generated $76 million in trading volume in one day, but checking on-chain, the pool only holds 1.5 million.
Purely left hand washing right hand.
This market is all a forced wash trading illusion; the pool is so shallow it can't absorb a few real dumps.
Once the market maker withdraws orders, it will be a free fall with no one to catch the fall.
#IRYS
$IRYS
👇The European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision on October 29, with the market almost unanimously expecting the deposit facility rate to remain unchanged at 2.50%. This round of rate hikes was driven by the energy shock caused by the Middle East conflict, with the rate already raised to 2.50% in September. There are three reasons for holding steady in October: inflation at 3.8% is mainly driven by energy, core inflation is only 2.5%, and there has been no sign of a second-round wage effect; the widening spread between France and Germany and the tightening bond market are equivalent to a 25 to 50 basis point rate hike; the Eurozone PMI fell in October, and the French PMI dropped below the expansion-contraction line, indicating weakening growth momentum. The real variable lies in December: oil price trends, collective bargaining wage increases, and whether the French budget and spreads will spill over will determine if the ECB hikes again. Lagarde has stated that the ECB will not wait for the second-round effects to appear before acting, indicating a clearly hawkish stance. The baseline scenario is no change in October, with slightly hawkish neutral wording, and the euro fluctuating within a range; if the French risk gets out of control, a rate hike may be delayed and the euro suppressed. The Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan will also announce their decisions this week, with the global interest rate environment synchronously tightening. The above does not constitute investment advice.If $ETH falls below $2,239, the cumulative long liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $580 million
If $BTC breaks above $84,240, the cumulative short liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $787 million
My judgment
The market is guessing "breakdown short squeeze" or "breakout long chase," but the real script is often—
First eliminate one side's liquidity, then reverse to harvest the trend followers.
Below 2239 is not the bottom; it's the "slaughter line" for long leverage;
Above 84240 is not the top; it's the "fuse" for short stop losses.
Logical details:
1) Liquidation clusters = visible cards on the order book; market makers know better than anyone where the density lies;
2) If ETH 2239 is pierced and broken, forced sell orders will self-reinforce, but after clearing, it will be lighter and freer;
3) Once BTC 84240 is truly broken through, short covering itself is buying pressure, igniting short-term volatility.
Operationally, don't guess direction, just follow discipline:
• Contracts: don't preemptively set up for a break; wait for "touch + pullback confirmation" before acting, with stop losses avoiding round number thresholds;
• Leverage: in extreme markets, reduce to within 3x, leaving 30% buffer at liquidation price;
• Spot/Grid: place low orders to capture liquidation panic, avoid manually catching falling knives;
• Position size: single trade risk ≤2%, survival is 100 times more important than catching a perfect move.
Long term, I remain bullish on BTC/ETH, but short term—
"Liquidation completion" is the right side; "FOMO breakout" is just trap packaging.$BTC has fallen for 4 consecutive days (daily closing price lower each day), from 84,097 to 80,157, a -4.7% drop.
At this point, many people might think: after so many days of decline, it should rebound, right?
I reviewed nearly 200 days of OKX daily charts, and there have been 6 instances of 4 or more consecutive down days. In the following 7 days:
📈 3 times it rose: +0.6%, +5.9%, +24.3%
📉 3 times it fell: -0.2%, -1.2%, -16.9%
It's about a 50/50 chance, like flipping a coin.
What really matters is the price level: the low of the shadow wick late Saturday night at 79,220. If the daily close is below that, it indicates bears have truly taken control.
The number of consecutive down days reflects sentiment, not a signal.
Not investment advice | Data: OKX BTC-USDT spot daily (UTC) #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ Morning Review: Price hasn't moved, but money has already left the scene. Cafeteria: BTC 80500 / ETH 2350 / SOL 101 <0.25%; positions down -1.15% remaining at 139.466 billion, trading volume down -39.82% remaining at 87.708 billion. BTC -1.65%, ETH -2.63%, SOL -1.83% all retreating: not panic, just collecting chips; Monday drowsiness, more than just tiredness. ZEC goes against the trend: positions up +3.80% to 2.43 billion, price surges to 1216, liquidations 3.76 million > SOL 3.31 million — the more you chase, the more you get caught. People haven't left, but half the chairs are empty first. BTC losing 80500 watch volume; ZEC not taking the last baton. Mainstream not adding positions, ZEC not chasing highs, position compressed one notch, volume recovery before further discussion.I still have a long $BTC position with a cost of $83,030 and will not add to the position in the short term.
Resistance above: trendline at $80,823, moving down by $397 daily.
The $80,133 level has been tested 6 times, held 5 times, broken 0 times, and 1 time with no reaction.
A) If the 4H candle closes below $80,133, there will be $5.35 million liquidations around this area within 48 hours; the next level is $79,775; invalid if it rises above $81,051.
B) If the 4H rises above $80,849 and holds after a pullback, watch $81,051; invalid if it breaks below $80,133.
Open interest in 24 hours is down 0.8%, price down 0.71%, indicating longs are exiting.
I will reduce half of my long position when it rebounds to $82,892 and move the stop loss to the cost price.
Do you think it will first sweep the liquidity below $80,133? #OKXTraderVoices $ORDER has gained nearly 15%! There have been many coins with 100% gains these days.
Chao Ge believes this is a catch-up rally triggered by Bitcoin's movement after 8.18, a last flash of altcoins! Trash will eventually return to the trash bin!
$BTC Technical Analysis: 80,000 support and upper resistance
Support range: Around $80,000 has been repeatedly tested, $80,500–$81,000 is a short-term key defense zone; breaking below may lead to a drop to $76,000–$77,000.
Resistance range: $82,600–$84,000 above forms short-term resistance; if the upper edge of the daily triangle range cannot be broken, the pullback may continue.
Structure judgment: Chao Ge believes the decline starting from 87,395 is a weekly-level correction rather than a trend reversal; after the adjustment ends, there is still room to rise.
$ETH Sun Yuchen's reduction: ETH is positioned as an "offensive asset" rather than a base holding; he has reduced 80% to 90% in the $3,600 to $4,000 range, leaving only 20% as a base to observe.
Technical judgment: Chao Ge believes the weekly correction starting from 2,807 is not yet over; the rise from 2,318 is a rebound against the correction; after the rebound ends, adjustment will continue; the correction bottom is earliest at late October to early November.
Short bias: Chao Ge maintains a bearish view in the $2,400 to $2,530 range, believing 2,310 will be seen again!I went through the open-source code of the Rabby wallet this morning, and the Hyperliquid referral code RABBYWALLET is hardcoded as a constant.
Using Hyperliquid's own API to check, this code is already linked to 47,143 addresses. The referral rewards have paid out over 5.18 million USDC, plus an additional 2.54 million in builder fees, and it charges 0.04% on every transaction.
At first, I thought this was overcharging users, but after reviewing Hyperliquid's documentation, the accounts didn't add up. The referral rewards come from 10% of the exchange's fee share, and those referred get a 4% discount on the first $25 million in trading volume. The only extra cost to you is that 0.04%.
The uncomfortable part lies elsewhere. The wallet chooses the referrer for you, and many people don't even know under whose name they are registered. The community says an address can only be linked to one referrer, but I haven't found this exact statement in the documentation yet, so I won't take it as fact.
Before connecting your wallet to perpetuals, take a minute to check your own address on Hyperliquid's public API for the referredBy field. Rabby’s official team hasn't responded yet; I'll revisit the accounts once they do.#AMD财报前瞻：HeliosAI系统商业化进展 I think AMD's earnings report is unlikely to exceed expectations Brothers, recently this market situation is really exhausting to watch, with good and bad news all tangled together. BTC keeps rubbing back and forth around the 80,000 mark. What's going on with this bottom?
🛢 The Middle East powder keg is ignited again: US troop buildup, uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz navigation, oil prices stubbornly high. This directly adds fuel to inflation expectations.
📊 The Fed remains tough: October PMI hits a 53-month high, and corporate selling price increases are the fastest since 2022. Strong economy + rising inflation, rate cuts? Don’t even think about it.
💰 ETF funds playing “fast run”: just a few days ago they were buying wildly with 1 billion, but in the past two days they turned around and dumped over 700 million. BTC was once smashed through 80,000 and the 50-day moving average, only held up by BlackRock’s small net inflow (560 million).
See it now? The core issue is that inflation can’t be suppressed. The market expects the October FOMC will most likely pause rate hikes, but the real danger lies in the post-meeting statements and the shadow of a December rate hike. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ #中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 $SUI
The SUI unlock in early November is reported differently: DeFiLlama says 2.07 million tokens, Token Unlocks says 13.15 million, and Tokenomics.com directly gives 22.6 million. The same event, but the numbers differ by almost ten times.
This is not a matter of someone miscalculating. Counting only the Mysten Labs treasury tokens versus including early contributors are fundamentally different scopes. The standards are also inconsistent: some count based on tokens already released into circulation, some on total supply, some recognize blocks but not calendar days, each source checks differently, and the dates can differ by two or three days.
From my own experience, relying on one source’s number and acting prematurely is risky—the volume is nowhere near that large, so you get stuck halfway and then watch it recover. Now I’ve learned to only look at the range: this unlock falls between 2 million and 23 million tokens, against a circulating supply of 4.1 billion, at most 0.55%, at least 0.05%.
Pitifully small. But market sentiment is irrational; even a 0.3% drop can create a significant dip. I’ve been burned by small unlocks before—better to earn less than to be the one catching a flying knife.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ Even with the same 100x leverage, some positions can just lie back and wait, while this one must be watched closely—there's only one difference: thinness."
$SOL only dropped 2.28%, with a buffer of just 2.34%. This asset normally swings much more than that in a day, so it doesn't need a trend reversal or positive news; just a slight shake can wipe out that 228% gain.
100x leverage magnifies 2.28% into 228%, and likewise magnifies 2.34% into zero. It gives you the fastest profits but also the shortest survival time—these two statements are one and the same.
The chart itself holds up: 103.86 hasn't been reclaimed, so the overall trend is still bearish. But it didn't break 100.67 when touched, indicating that resistance is stronger than I expected.
So I never decide to close based on "how much I've earned," only on how far it is from the cost line. 2.34% is too close. I push for breakeven, minimize exposure, follow through if it breaks 100 down to 98, and admit I'm wrong if it stands back above 103.86. $BTC $ETH
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ $ETH
Hayes' liquidation wave has sold about $49.25 million worth of tokens so far, with $49.24 million USDC returned, not a cent left. Among them, there are 6,400 ETH, valued at 15.2 million at the time.
But look at ETH now, 2332, only down 1% in 24 hours, lowest touched 2310. Such a huge selling pressure slammed down, yet the price acts like nothing happened, funding rate 0.004%, almost zero.
Last time I saw him call the top, I got proven wrong; he sold over 8 million ETH at 3500, then later said he bought it all back. I no longer take his words as direction, but I remember his actions. What I note this time: after clearing out, he just watches, like cashing profits waiting for macro, not like he knows some hidden risk.
So I don’t blame Hayes for this round of decline. If you really want to watch, it’s retail moving BTC to Binance hitting a 6-month high, and whale inflows still decreasing; this divergence is more worth pondering.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ $BTC just reclaimed $80,000, but a weekend liquidation wiped out over $800 million. With the Fed rate decision countdown underway, what exactly is the market betting on?
During the Asian session, CoinMarketCap showed Bitcoin around $80,162, down about 0.41% in 24 hours. The weekend low briefly touched approximately $79,146 before climbing back above the psychological threshold. Coinglass data indicates that over the past 24 hours, crypto market liquidations exceeded about $810 million, with long liquidations around $689 million — weekend liquidity was thin, and the leverage sell-off was amplified after breaking below $80,000.
On the other hand, CME FedWatch prices the October 28 rate decision at about 90.6% probability of "no change, maintaining 3.75%–4.00%" and only about 9.4% chance of a 25bp hike. This means short-term volatility is more driven by the tone of the statement and whether the chair’s Q&A will raise December hike expectations, rather than whether there will be an immediate hike this week.
Policy side is also unsettled: the Treasury/FinCEN previously withdrew proposed reporting rules targeting non-custodial wallets, keeping the existing AML framework intact; however, pricing power this week still mainly lies with the Fed. $ETH is also weak in sync, and risk assets overall are waiting for a clear signal.
Are you focusing more on the support near 78,000, or the rate decision statement on Wednesday? Don't be dazzled by the $21 billion👀｜The key point of Strategy's earnings report is not the income statement
Strategy turned a profit on the books in Q3, with digital asset gains of about $21 billion, ending four consecutive quarters of losses. Last quarter, it still took an $8.3 billion paper loss due to $BTC decline, but this quarter it flipped the page directly📈.
But this wasn't earned from operations. The new standard ASU 2023-08 effective in 2025 requires Bitcoin to be revalued at market price at the end of each quarter, with gains or losses going directly into net income. In other words, what the income statement looks like largely depends on where BTC's closing price lands on the last day of the quarter🎢.
The real signals are in the actions:
· Slowing down on accumulation: In the first week of October, only 334 BTC were bought, compared to 950 and 1665 BTC in the previous two weeks respectively, buying less and less🐢.
· Spent $176 million to repurchase preferred shares STRC at a discount, starting to repair the balance sheet🧱.
Big coin holders are no longer hoarding coins, which is much more important than the $21 billion paper figure.
So when looking at Strategy's earnings report, don't just focus on the net income line. Watch BTC-per-share — how much Bitcoin corresponds to each share, and whether it has been diluted by issuance or premium🔍. The income statement is a mirror of BTC price; capital moves are the real signals. #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ #中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 Three narratives, each accounting for itself
At the same point in time, three small coins follow three different logics.
$WLD is quoted at 0.4649. It resembles a long-term gamble on an "identity network + token distribution" table: iris scans for identity, activity level determines token flow. Behind the price, the market is actually weighing two things—whether a global identity network can truly be established, and whether continuous token release will outpace demand. Without a BTC-style hard cap, WLD's challenge lies not in the story but in the race between release and absorption.
$APR is quoted at 0.02598. It stands within the Monad ecosystem, providing liquid staking and MEV yields: stake MON, earn aprMON, share MEV. It rose 1.17% that day with a volume of 7.62 million, indicating the new ecosystem was briefly energized by capital. Such new protocols are elastic and retreat quickly; the key is whether Monad will have follow-up capital. Chasing highs easily catches the peak of sentiment.
$TRUMP is quoted at 1.653. Pricing for political memes doesn’t rely on profit statements but on personality news and event heat. The issuance volume is fixed in advance; it rose 0.67% that day with a turnover of 64.1 million USD, active for a meme. But once the event window closes, both buy and sell orders may thin simultaneously; a rebound does not equal a trend.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ #中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 Ten consecutive bullish candles climbed from 3995.7 to 4013.3, a rise of 17.6 points, with 8.06 million contracts traded. Just now, two bearish candles used 3.75 million contracts to give back the entire 17.6 points, bottoming at 3992.6, even dipping below the starting point by 3.1 points.
The ledger is straightforward: it takes 8.06 million contracts to push up a segment, but only 3.75 million contracts to push down the same distance.
At 06:00, the 3,501,130 contracts traded was the largest in 24 hours, pushing to 4013.3 and closing at 4010.9, with an upper shadow of 2.4 points; immediately after, at 08:00, volume of 2,496,577 contracts smashed down to 3992.6. The money pushing the price up and the money smashing it down is the same.
Current price is 4003.6, 24h +0.14%, MA20 at 4001.245 just 2.4 points below.
If the 4006.4~4008.4 rebound fails and the 1H candle closes bearish with volume ≥1.5 million, short with stop loss at 4011.5, first target 3992.6 with odds 3.2, break below target 3980 with odds 6.0.
If volume closes above 4013.3 (volume ≥2 million), cancel the short, no reference above, I won’t chase longs.
3992.6~4006.4 is the just-fought battlefield, I won’t enter.
$XAU
(Not investment advice, trade at your own risk) Over the weekend, $BTC dipped to 79,840 but then reclaimed above 80,000, yet the trading volume was only half of the 7-day average, which is a typical sign of volume contraction at the bottom.
The Middle East situation has already downgraded to background noise, so don’t treat it as the main logic. I judge that before the interest rate decision settles, it will be a low-volume oscillation around 80,000. Hold your spot positions and don’t fuss; those wanting to move should wait until after Wednesday.
BTC is pressed down by three moving averages above; the MA30 is near 82,900, and a rebound to that area will most likely be pushed back. The upper boundary of the range at 87,200 is an even bigger ceiling.
$ZEC shows volume and price not cooperating: it fell from 1,373 down to around 1,200, and volume shrinks on rebounds, with few chasing the rally. The current price of 1,196 is just above the MA20, and the RSI at 47.8 is neither overbought nor strong.
But regardless, it’s the only one with a positive 7-day gain; this privacy coin is showing some strength against the trend.
$ETH, don’t catch a falling knife near 2,300; wait until the whale liquidation line is hit before considering. That $397 million long whale on-chain added $9.21 million margin last night, pushing the liquidation price from 2,256 down to 2,181. The current price is 2,327, only $146 away from the critical point. #中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 ETF outflows of $773.5 million in two days! Institutions retreating, who is still absorbing the $BTC?
$BTC fell below $80,000, bulls faced massive liquidations, and the capital flow in spot ETFs poured cold water on the market.
On October 22, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $635.6 million; on October 23, another net outflow of $137.9 million. A total outflow of $773.5 million in two days!
The most alarming aspect of these numbers is not how scary they are, but that they remind everyone: do not treat institutional funds as an eternal safety net.
Many people see continuous ETF inflows and think Wall Street is bottom-fishing; when prices drop, they firmly believe institutions are deliberately suppressing prices. The problem is, you trust the data when funds flow in, but refuse to accept reality when funds flow out. Is this investing, or just psychological comfort for your holdings?
$BTC fell below $80,000, with over $800 million liquidated, bulls being the main victims. Now with consecutive large net outflows from ETFs, price, leverage, and capital sentiment are all under pressure. The market is clearly not as simple as the optimists think.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ #中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 Bitcoin closed down -2.39% this week but held above the 50-week moving average for the sixth consecutive week, despite adjustments in the US market. Order Book Strength Ranking
5-minute median slippage, estimated by order book
$LIGHT large sell order cost rising. Simulated slippage for a 100,000 scale sell increased from 4.28% to 6.08%. Slippage rising, order book thinning.
$ORDER large buy order cost decreasing, sell order cost increasing. Simulated buy/sell slippage for a 100,000 scale changed from 1.12%/0.96% to 0.94%/1.09%. Compared to the previous window, one side's cost rose while the other's fell.
$APR after amplifying orders, slippage on both buy and sell sides increased significantly. Simulated buy/sell slippage for a 10,000 scale is 0.16%/0.18%, and for 100,000 scale is 0.82%/0.82%. This is a cost table, not a direction; simultaneous increase in buy and sell costs indicates overall depth is relatively thin.To see if a derivatives platform is actually used, I usually first check the real on-chain transactions instead of looking at the K-line.
I just checked the data for GRVT on DefiLlama. As of October 23, the nominal trading volume of perpetual contracts in the past 30 days was about $14.6 billion, with open interest at $437 million. These two numbers need to be read separately: nominal trading volume indicates repeated opening and closing of positions by users, while open interest shows the real positions currently held inside. $14.6 billion versus $437 million means a high turnover rate and relatively light positions, typical of an active short-term market, not propped up by a few large orders.
But nominal trading volume does not equal revenue, and this must be clear. Market making rebates, wash trading, and promotional subsidies can all inflate the nominal value, while the actual fee income is another matter.
What’s more worth watching is the TVL. In March this year, about $114 million was locked in the platform, but now only $33.65 million remains, a 70% drop in seven months. Trading is happening, but funds are unwilling to stay, which is the most awkward situation for DeFi derivatives platforms.
So their solution is planned for GRVT 2.0 in November: integrating trading and Earn, allowing yield-bearing assets to be used directly as margin. Simply put, the interest-bearing assets you deposit don’t need to be redeemed first before opening a position; one amount of money can do two things at once. This really improves capital efficiency, giving users a reason to keep funds on the platform.
Of course, plans are not the same as going live. The list of supported assets, liquidation parameters, and margin discount ratios have not been disclosed yet. I will decide whether to put money in once it actually launches. 😱 $BTC late-night "leverage avalanche": 220,000 people liquidated, while ZEC is staging a covert capital battle
📉 At 22:15, $BTC crashed through 80,000 with a massive 15-minute bearish candle, bottoming at 79,773; ETH simultaneously fell below 2,350. Over $200 million liquidated in 15 minutes, $812 million liquidated across the network in 24 hours, 225,000 traders wiped out, with longs accounting for 668 million. This is not a bear market, but a targeted explosion of high leverage 💥.
🌍 Multiple macro factors hit simultaneously: US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a single-day net outflow of $635 million, the largest in nearly four months; Brent crude surged to $116, reigniting inflation expectations; BTC daily chart closed below the 50-day moving average for the first time since August. Weekend liquidity is thin, and once a level breaks, it triggers a stampede.
🔍 But ZEC’s trump card is complicated: Grayscale ETF had a weekly outflow of $93.6 million, whales dumped 15,000 coins, making the bearish narrative obvious; on the other hand, Zcash investment products saw a weekly net inflow of $42 million, with $20.52 million on Friday alone. Capital is buying, price is suppressed, futures open interest dropped 12.45%, top traders’ short exposure exceeds 90%. This is not simple selling; it’s a structure where leveraged longs are being liquidated and spot funds are quietly absorbing 🧩.
⚖️ In short: the market is deleveraging, ZEC is changing hands. Don’t mistake liquidation for a trend, don’t mistake capital flow for noise. #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ The most vulnerable link has never been the price, but the positions that keep piling up within a narrow range. Guess which will be washed out first next week, the longs or the shorts? Watching the market these past two days gives a very subtle feeling. BTC is almost stuck around 80800, with volatility so low it’s boring, yet the open interest is counter-trend increasing, with short-term liquidations already reaching $1.75 billion. Price is stagnant, leverage is increasing; this is not a sign of strength but more like risk quietly accumulating. Chasing orders before a volume breakout basically means paying tuition in a consolidation zone. What really sets the pace is the calendar. On Thursday early morning, the Fed decision; the same day, the ECB meeting, US GDP and PCE releases; then on Friday, options expiration. Four major events packed into one week. The market will most likely first weed out the uncommitted positions repeatedly rather than giving a clear entry point. At times like this, I’m not watching the ups and downs but the cross-market transmission chain: once US Treasury yields move, risk appetite contracts first, then crypto follows. ETH is the most deceptive one. It repeatedly faces resistance around 2360, with a larger drop than BTC, continuous withdrawal of positions, and liquidations of $1.57 billion. ETF outflows this month approach $10 billion, staking yields are clearly lower than US Treasuries, so there’s no reason for funds to return. Before the weakness is reversed, bottom fishing looks more like prematurely catching the next downtrend rather than grabbing a bargain. SOL is another kind of pain, oscillating with shrinking volume around 102, buy orders constantly getting hit, but retail longs still account for over 76%. PreToday I reviewed the on-chain data of GRVT, quite interesting.
In the past 30 days, the nominal perpetual trading volume was $14.6 billion, with only $437 million open interest. High trading volume but light positions indicate frequent in-and-out activity, not just holding still.
However, TVL has dropped from $114 million in March to $33.65 million now, with funds continuously flowing out.
In November, they plan to launch version 2.0, merging trading and Earn, allowing yield assets to be used directly as margin. This direction is promising, but whether it can succeed depends on the actual parameters after launch.