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Comprehensive Analysis of Three Major Issues
1. Can Quantum Computers + AI Intelligent Mathematics Truly Cause Devastating Damage to Bitcoin?
1. Quantum Computers: A Long-Term Real Risk, but No Destructive Power at Present
Bitcoin's SHA256 hash (ledger, mining) is quantum-resistant; the risk is concentrated on ECDSA elliptic curve signatures. Shor's algorithm can derive private keys from public keys, and about 30% of Bitcoin addresses have their public keys exposed on-chain, making them high-risk assets.
- Current Status: Fault-tolerant quantum computers do not yet exist. The academic consensus estimates that devices capable of breaking secp256k1 will not appear before 2030–2035, which is a long way off and not an immediate threat.
- Important Distinction: Quantum computers can only steal coins whose public keys have been exposed; they cannot directly delete the Bitcoin ledger or destroy the entire Bitcoin network.
- Countermeasures: The Bitcoin community is already researching post-quantum upgrade proposals (BIPs); users can proactively migrate coins to new addresses with unexposed public keys to mitigate risks.
2. AI (Large Model Mathematical Capability): Currently Unable to Break ECDSA, This Is a Frontier Hypothesis, Not a Real Threat
AI excels at pattern recognition and symbolic computation, but there is currently no public mathematical proof or experimental evidence that AI can find a shortcut to solve the elliptic curve discrete logarithm problem quickly.
- Recent Academic Discussion: Ethereum researcher Justin Drake proposed a hypothesis that AI might discover mathematical shortcuts to break ECDSA before the advent of quantum computers. This is only a risk warning hypothesis, not an actual attack, and many cryptography experts remain skeptical.
- What AI Can Do: Assist in cryptanalysis, find code vulnerabilities, brute-force user wallet passwords; it cannot directly break Bitcoin's underlying elliptic curve cryptography.
✅ Conclusion:
Quantum computing is a long-term real cryptographic risk; AI mathematical breakthroughs are theoretical conjectures. Their combined effect may bring significant security pressure in the future, but within the next decade or so, they will not immediately destroy the Bitcoin network or cause it to go to zero. The risk is partial asset theft, not an instantaneous system collapse.
2. Does "Grandpa Gu"'s Claim That Bitcoin Will Go to Zero Have Scientific Basis?
Note: "Grandpa Gu" is a short video science popularizer, not an internationally recognized top cryptography authority. Some of his views have cryptographic theoretical support, but the ultimate "go to zero" conclusion is a subjective extrapolation, not a consensus in academia.
✅ Scientifically Supported Parts of His View
1. Bitcoin's ECDSA signatures can be broken by future fault-tolerant quantum computers; about 30% of BTC public keys are exposed on-chain, posing theft risk.
2. Bitcoin governance is extremely difficult; after a network-wide switch to quantum signatures, consensus among miners, nodes, exchanges, and large holders is required. Hard fork upgrades face huge resistance and may fail.
3. Bitcoin has no cash flow or physical asset backing; its value relies entirely on global market consensus. Once a security crisis erupts, panic selling could cause a massive crash.
❌ Parts Lacking Scientific Support and Are Subjective Inferences
1. The "directly go to zero" conclusion is extreme: even if some exposed addresses' bitcoins are stolen, the Bitcoin network itself can still operate normally. As long as many nodes, miners, and holders continue using it, the network's value will not be zero. The academic mainstream view is a deep crash is most likely, not an immediate zero.
2. Underestimates migration solutions: users can proactively transfer assets to addresses with unexposed public keys to avoid quantum risks without waiting for a network-wide hard fork.
3. Ignores consensus resilience: Bitcoin has endured multiple crises and regulatory pressures over more than a decade, with strong global distributed node and institutional holding consensus; confidence is unlikely to vanish instantly.
In summary: The quantum security risk he raises is a real academic issue; however, directly extrapolating this risk to BTC going to zero is a pessimistic personal forecast, not a cryptographic consensus.
3. Can STRK's Quantum-Resistant L1 Solution Succeed?
✅ Core Technical Advantages (Verified by StarkWare's Official Paper)
1. The STARK proof system relies only on hash functions at its core; hash algorithms are quantum-resistant (Grover's algorithm only provides quadratic speedup, which can be offset by increasing hash length). This is a native advantage, different from BTC and ETH's elliptic curve systems.
2. Starknet's native account abstraction: no need for a network-wide hard fork; individual accounts can independently upgrade to post-quantum signatures (NIST standard Falcon), with unchanged account addresses and no large-scale asset migration. BTC's biggest challenge in upgrading to post-quantum signatures is network-wide hard fork governance, which STRK naturally avoids.
3. Roadmap: Transition from Ethereum L2 to independent L1, aiming to detach from Ethereum's base layer; simultaneously developing QSB quantum-secure Bitcoin solutions to provide quantum-secure custody for BTC assets.
⚠️ Significant Uncertainties Exist; 100% Success Cannot Be Claimed
1. STRK is currently still an Ethereum L2: independent L1 is a mid-to-long-term plan and not yet realized. Before transition completion, its bridging and data availability layers still depend on Ethereum, inheriting Ethereum's cryptographic risks.
2. Ecosystem implementation challenges: independent L1 requires not only technical code but also attracting nodes, developers, funds, and ecosystem application migration; technical feasibility does not equal ecosystem success.
3. Project governance, funding, and market narrative risks: ongoing token unlocks and market sentiment fluctuations will affect ecosystem progress speed.Comprehensive Analysis of Three Major Issues
1. Can Quantum Computers + AI Intelligent Mathematics Truly Cause Devastating Damage to Bitcoin?
1. Quantum Computers: A Long-Term Real Risk, but No Destructive Power at Present
Bitcoin's SHA256 hash (ledger, mining) is quantum-resistant; the risk is concentrated on ECDSA elliptic curve signatures. Shor's algorithm can derive private keys from public keys, and about 30% of Bitcoin addresses have their public keys exposed on-chain, making them high-risk assets.
- Current Status: Fault-tolerant quantum computers do not yet exist. The academic consensus estimates that devices capable of breaking secp256k1 will not appear before 2030–2035, which is a long way off and not an immediate threat.
- Important Distinction: Quantum computers can only steal coins whose public keys have been exposed; they cannot directly delete the Bitcoin ledger or destroy the entire Bitcoin network.
- Countermeasures: The Bitcoin community is already researching post-quantum upgrade proposals (BIPs); users can proactively migrate coins to new addresses with unexposed public keys to mitigate risks.
2. AI (Large Model Mathematical Capability): Currently Unable to Break ECDSA, This Is a Frontier Hypothesis, Not a Real Threat
AI excels at pattern recognition and symbolic computation, but there is currently no public mathematical proof or experimental evidence that AI can find a shortcut to solve the elliptic curve discrete logarithm problem quickly.
- Recent Academic Discussion: Ethereum researcher Justin Drake proposed a hypothesis that AI might discover mathematical shortcuts to break ECDSA before the advent of quantum computers. This is only a risk warning hypothesis, not an actual attack, and many cryptography experts remain skeptical.
- What AI Can Do: Assist in cryptanalysis, find code vulnerabilities, brute-force user wallet passwords; it cannot directly break Bitcoin's underlying elliptic curve cryptography.
✅ Conclusion:
Quantum computing is a long-term real cryptographic risk; AI mathematical breakthroughs are theoretical conjectures. Their combined effect may bring significant security pressure in the future, but within the next decade or so, they will not immediately destroy the Bitcoin network or cause it to go to zero. The risk is partial asset theft, not an instantaneous system collapse.
2. Does "Grandpa Gu"'s Claim That Bitcoin Will Go to Zero Have Scientific Basis?
Note: "Grandpa Gu" is a short video science popularizer, not an internationally recognized top cryptography authority. Some of his views have cryptographic theoretical support, but the ultimate "go to zero" conclusion is a subjective extrapolation, not a consensus in academia.
✅ Scientifically Supported Parts of His View
1. Bitcoin's ECDSA signatures can be broken by future fault-tolerant quantum computers; about 30% of BTC public keys are exposed on-chain, posing theft risk.
2. Bitcoin governance is extremely difficult; after a network-wide switch to quantum signatures, consensus among miners, nodes, exchanges, and large holders is required. Hard fork upgrades face huge resistance and may fail.
3. Bitcoin has no cash flow or physical asset backing; its value relies entirely on global market consensus. Once a security crisis erupts, panic selling could cause a massive crash.
❌ Parts Lacking Scientific Support and Are Subjective Inferences
1. The "directly go to zero" conclusion is extreme: even if some exposed addresses' bitcoins are stolen, the Bitcoin network itself can still operate normally. As long as many nodes, miners, and holders continue using it, the network's value will not be zero. The academic mainstream view is a deep crash is most likely, not an immediate zero.
2. Underestimates migration solutions: users can proactively transfer assets to addresses with unexposed public keys to avoid quantum risks without waiting for a network-wide hard fork.
3. Ignores consensus resilience: Bitcoin has endured multiple crises and regulatory pressures over more than a decade, with strong global distributed node and institutional holding consensus; confidence is unlikely to vanish instantly.
In summary: The quantum security risk he raises is a real academic issue; however, directly extrapolating this risk to BTC going to zero is a pessimistic personal forecast, not a cryptographic consensus.
3. Can STRK's Quantum-Resistant L1 Solution Succeed?
✅ Core Technical Advantages (Verified by StarkWare's Official Paper)
1. The STARK proof system relies only on hash functions at its core; hash algorithms are quantum-resistant (Grover's algorithm only provides quadratic speedup, which can be offset by increasing hash length). This is a native advantage, different from BTC and ETH's elliptic curve systems.
2. Starknet's native account abstraction: no need for a network-wide hard fork; individual accounts can independently upgrade to post-quantum signatures (NIST standard Falcon), with unchanged account addresses and no large-scale asset migration. BTC's biggest challenge in upgrading to post-quantum signatures is network-wide hard fork governance, which STRK naturally avoids.
3. Roadmap: Transition from Ethereum L2 to independent L1, aiming to detach from Ethereum's base layer; simultaneously developing QSB quantum-secure Bitcoin solutions to provide quantum-secure custody for BTC assets.
⚠️ Significant Uncertainties Exist; 100% Success Cannot Be Claimed
1. STRK is currently still an Ethereum L2: independent L1 is a mid-to-long-term plan and not yet realized. Before transition completion, its bridging and data availability layers still depend on Ethereum, inheriting Ethereum's cryptographic risks.
2. Ecosystem implementation challenges: independent L1 requires not only technical code but also attracting nodes, developers, funds, and ecosystem application migration; technical feasibility does not equal ecosystem success.
3. Project governance, funding, and market narrative risks: ongoing token unlocks and market sentiment fluctuations will affect ecosystem progress speed.BTC $81,164 (24h -3.01%), ETH -5.74%, OP -16% leading the decline. This morning continued breaking below 82k, a deep issue not of a single day:
① Rate hike rekindled: October rate hike probability 20%→50%+, 10Y holding at 5.2%
② USD strengthened to the highest since May 2025, liquidity tightening
③ Tech/semiconductor crash (Nasdaq -2%, Coreweave -15%) spillover risk kills
④ Leveraged long liquidation: 24h liquidations $935 million, longs account for $860 million
⑤ ETF buying momentum fades, rebound weak
Counterintuitive: 84% bullish analysts yet price falls = macro real money retreat, not emotional oversell. Support $81.3k → main structure $80k; trigger at yearly moving average $78,423 / recovery at $85,000. Tonight 20:30 (+8) four data releases coincide, no move before data.
$BTC #Bitcoin #Macro
Market has risks, content is for information sharing only, not investment advice. #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验
Brothers, I'm going in first, the bulls will definitely win
Many people ask, why did the financial market drop when the CPI data on October 14 exceeded expectations?
A simple breakdown of the underlying logic:
The September CPI year-on-year was 3.7%, higher than the market expectation of 3.6%, and even the core CPI exceeded expectations.
The market's first reaction: inflation is very resilient, the Fed can't ease quickly, the probability of a rate hike in October rises directly, and US Treasury yields increase.
With higher US Treasury yields, the attractiveness of risk-free assets increases, so funds will withdraw from risk assets like BTC and US stocks, causing sell-offs.
The crypto market also experienced a cascade of leveraged long liquidations, further amplifying the decline.
Many mistakenly think high inflation is good for crypto, but this is a misconception. The moment the data is released, the market prioritizes trading on the Fed's tightening expectations.
Even if the FOMC ultimately decides not to raise rates at the end of the month, the strength of inflation will keep the Fed hawkish, pushing pressure to December and next year.
Next, keep an eye on PPI and the FOMC meeting; the macro uncertainty is not yet resolved.After ZEC's volume surged and then fell back to 1081, it stabilized. Has the "ETF honeymoon period" ended?
This round of decline has three independent pressure lines; it can't be blamed solely on the overall market:
1. Macro shifts hit high-beta coins. The US September CPI year-over-year was 3.7% (expected 3.6%), causing the market to sharply price in Fed rate hikes. Funds prioritized withdrawing from high-volatility altcoins, with ZEC underperforming the market by about 7 percentage points over 24 hours.
2. Grayscale ZCSH continues to bleed. This first US Zcash spot ETF has had net redemptions for seven consecutive trading days, with over $124 million outflow in two weeks. Its assets under management dropped from a peak of about $979 million to $751 million. More critically, it holds about 3.27% of ZEC's circulating supply—ETF redemptions require selling coins to pay out, directly putting selling pressure on the spot market. Additionally, the fund's management fee is as high as 2.5%, while Winklevoss has submitted a competing product, WINK, with only a 0.25% fee, motivating capital to shift.
3. Divergence in bullish and bearish signals. Whale long positions increased by about 24%, with a long-short ratio of about 3.88 times, but top traders showed net selling ($907K sell orders vs. $329K buy orders). Retail investors are bottom-fishing while large funds are distributing—this combination often means continued volatility in the short term.
#ZEC跻身前十，机构化进程提速 $ZEC #谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？ Google Cloud's quarterly revenue surged 82% year-over-year, driven primarily by enterprise AI computing power, the Gemini enterprise edition, and self-developed TPU chip orders. The backlog of orders has reached $514 billion, indicating ongoing revenue recognition potential. The cloud business operating margin also rose to 35.6%, proving that AI investments have begun to yield profits.
However, it is important to distinguish: revenue and gross profit recovery do not equal overall breakeven. To meet AI demand, Google continues to increase capital expenditures, with substantial funds continuously invested in data centers, TPU chips, and large model training, which squeezes free cash flow in the short term. This is also the market's focal point: AI is a heavy-asset arms race, and while orders are booming, capital investment is also ramping up, resulting in a longer return cycle.
This news is somewhat positive for the Nasdaq AI sector, validating real demand for enterprise computing power, which will boost risk appetite for tech growth stocks and indirectly provide sentiment support for BTC, ETH. However, similar to Microsoft's self-developed chip logic, after the positive effects are realized, a pullback is likely; if capital expenditures continue to rise and cash flow declines, the market will reprice investment costs and suppress tech valuations.
Key follow-up points: the extent of capital expenditure increases, whether cloud business profit margins can be maintained, and the growth rate of Gemini API calls. If profit margins continue to rise, it indicates a successful commercial cycle for AI investments; if expenditure growth consistently outpaces revenue growth, skepticism about AI returns will intensify again $BTC $ETH $SNDK #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓
Q3 revenue is clear, the real battle is this afternoon
Q3 revenue reached 1.49 trillion New Taiwan Dollars, a year-on-year increase of 50.9%, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of record highs, and even exceeding the company's own guidance (actual about $46.7 billion vs. guidance upper limit of $45.8 billion).
But revenue is just the first half. The real suspense lies in the gross margin: Q3 guidance is 65%-67%, lower than Q2's actual 67.7%—the 2nm ramp-up is expected to dilute by 3-4 points. Whether net profit can outpace revenue growth depends on this.
There is a conference call at 2 PM today, focusing on three points: gross margin level, Q4 guidance, and capex (whether the $60-64 billion will be raised again).
A bit of a cold shower: the stock price just hit a record high, and the revenue beat is likely already priced in. The decisive factor this afternoon is not revenue, but whether the profit margin can withstand the 2nm ramp-up.
Withstand = truly beat expectations; fail to withstand = all good news priced in.
This is not investment advice, results will be revealed this afternoon. When watching $BTC this morning, don't just focus on that green bar; look up at the Asian stock markets: the Nikkei once dropped nearly 5%, the Korean won led the decline, and the entire Asian session was risk-off. Crypto has never been an island. When the world's smartest money collectively shrinks risk exposure in the same period, the liquidity in the crypto space is often the first to be pulled out. The hot CPI is just the trigger; the real issue is that everyone is starting to doubt whether this round of AI and risk asset valuations can really hold up. On days like this, cash and patience themselves are a position, and often the highest returning one.I have become cautious about Bitcoin's upcoming market trend.
Last night, the US CPI was released, showing inflation at 3.7%, higher than market expectations.
Bitcoin briefly fell below $82,000.
But I believe the real danger is not this drop.
The real issue is that the market has been trading on the narrative of "Fed rate cuts and liquidity easing," and now this narrative may need to be repriced.
What's more interesting is that on October 13, Bitcoin ETFs still had a net inflow of $176 million.
Institutions are buying, but the price may not necessarily rise.
This indicates one thing:
Having buying pressure does not mean selling pressure has ended.
I am not in a hurry to guess the bottom now.
If further macroeconomic negatives continue to appear but Bitcoin starts to hold steady, I will study long opportunities more seriously.
If US Treasury yields fall and the dollar weakens, yet Bitcoin still can't rise, then caution is warranted.
The most valuable thing to study in the market has never been the news Don't underestimate the core CPI 2.6% (expected 2.5%) difference of 0.1%; the market is already repricing rate hike expectations.
After the data release:
10-year US Treasury yield 5.19%→5.27%
BTC dropped 1.2% from around 83700
ETH remains near 2500, showing weakness
Nasdaq futures -0.8%, gold -1%
It's no longer just the crypto market under pressure; equities and gold are weakening simultaneously. The market is starting to price in the possibility of another rate hike, and risk appetite is collectively contracting.
Short-term support for BTC is seen at 81500, with a key lower level at 80000. With no easing in rates, BTC will struggle to strengthen independently, and ETH and altcoins will continue to face pressure.
✅ Bullish premise: US Treasury yields fall back, 81500 support holds, and this CPI is only a single-month disturbance, allowing for a short-covering rally.
⚠️ Risk: Yields continue to rise, and if 80000 breaks, the market will enter an accelerated decline phase.
Currently, remain cautious and focus on two signals: whether US Treasury yields can stabilize and whether BTC's 81500 support can hold. Q3 is a strong, better-than-expected quality earnings report: AI computing power drives full capacity in advanced processes, 3nm ramps up smoothly, and gross margin continues to rise; however, Q4 guidance is flat quarter-over-quarter, indicating a short-term slowdown in high-speed growth. The core contradiction: short-term AI prosperity is very strong, but medium to long term depends on AI capital expenditure, geopolitics, and overseas factory costs. Oura's overall financial health is manageable but not flawless. Cash flow is self-sustaining, liquidity is sufficient, and debt levels are low. However, net profit has just turned positive and remains fragile; high warranty liabilities represent a real cash outflow. The hardware-driven revenue structure means its financial performance will fluctuate sharply with product cycles. For a company seeking a $16 billion valuation, there is a clear tension between the current financial fundamentals' "depth" and the expectations implied by that valuation.Gold hasn't hit a new high, and Bitcoin is still 34% below last October's peak—
But this precisely shows that this round is not a return of risk appetite, but rather capital discounting the purchasing power of sovereign currencies.
The ledger doesn't lie: U.S. debt just broke $41 trillion, net interest expense for fiscal year 2026 is $1.143 trillion, up 11% year-over-year, already exceeding defense spending. The cost for the U.S. government to borrow and pay interest is higher than maintaining the military. The CBO baseline projects interest hitting $2.1 trillion by 2036, accounting for 26% of federal revenue. When debt can only be repaid by issuing new debt, dilution is the default option, not a conspiracy theory.
So don't ask whether rates will rise. Rate hikes are cyclical; dilution is structural. Cycles go back and forth, structure only moves in one direction.
Institutions act more honestly than their words: after the Fed's 25bp rate hike in September, U.S. stock spot Bitcoin ETFs actually shifted from outflows to inflows (different institutions report between $2.65 billion and $3.49 billion, numbers are disputed but direction is clear); Citi raised BTC's 12-month target price to $113,000. What they are buying is not the October rally, but a "fiat currency put option" for their own balance sheets.
My approach is boring: no top calls, hold the base position, add in batches on pullbacks. Short-term volatility is noise; the slope of monetary credit is the real dividend.
#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验
$BTC $ETH Altcoin rotation has already started, but it's not yet a broad rally
Recently, market funds have begun to spread across different cryptocurrencies.
Those holding long-term are most likely to overlook the impact of fund switching.
Direct impact: fund flow has changed
The altcoin season index has reached 62, and the greed index is at 63.
This data indicates that market risk appetite is recovering.
Funds are starting to seek opportunities stronger than $BTC.
Impact point: the gap between strong and weak will widen
$ETH may absorb overflow funds, and $ZEC is also leading the strength.
But the index measures the proportion of the top 50 altcoins outperforming $BTC.
62 has not yet surpassed 75, so it cannot be considered a full altcoin season.
Fund rotation does not mean all coins will rise; coins lacking fund attention may still remain stagnant.
#渣打开放BTC与ETH交易，银行加密业务扩展 $BTC $ETH #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓
TSMC's Q3 estimated revenue is NT$1.49 trillion, a year-on-year increase of about 50%, setting a historical record. Fundamentally, this is driven by AI computing power orders boosting advanced process volume. However, the high revenue growth is only a scale phenomenon; the real test of profitability quality is whether the gross margin can hold within the 65%-67% range. Currently, TSMC is caught in a production expansion paradox: the stronger the AI demand, the higher the capital expenditure, depreciation, and overseas factory costs, compounded by yield losses from ramping up the 2nm new process, continuously eroding profit elasticity. The high concentration of AI orders also hides risks of customer bargaining power and demand cycle fluctuations. If the gross margin approaches the upper limit of the range, it proves that the advanced process pricing power is sufficient to cover the additional costs; if the gross margin is under pressure, even with impressive revenue, net profit growth will significantly lag behind revenue, and the market will reassess the sustainability of this AI dividend.This morning, the Korean stock storage chain was hit hard, with Samsung down 6% and SK Hynix down 7%. Here's another data point: foreign investors have already sold a total of 176 trillion Korean won worth of Samsung and Hynix this year, making the market look like it's collapsing. But looking deeper, JPMorgan just said that the average price of HBM will still rise 54% by 2027, Hynix itself forecasts a 20-fold increase in AI infrastructure performance scale by 2030, and high storage costs in Q3 are suppressing demand, with no easing on the supply side. The pit caused by panic selling and the pit caused by deteriorating fundamentals are two different things. As a low-frequency player, I wait for the moment when sentiment mistakenly kills good assets down to the floor. What I catch is the oversold rebound, not the flying knife; the difference lies in whether you have thought through the failure point in advance.Bitcoin kneels first, Asia-Pacific follows with a crash: US inflation triggers a global asset chain reaction
Last night BTC dropped from 83,000 to break through 81,500, with over 100 million liquidations across the network; it bore the brunt of the US stock market panic for you.
US September CPI at 3.7% beats expectations → rate hike probability soars above 40% → US Treasury yields surge to 5.3% → Nasdaq down 2%, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down 4.3% for six consecutive declines. TSMC ADR and SK Hynix collectively plummet, today Asia-Pacific continues the relay: South Korean stocks fall 7% triggering circuit breakers, Taiwan stocks follow suit, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks did not escape.
Transmission chain: inflation explodes → US Treasury yields skyrocket → Philadelphia Semiconductor Index crashes → Bitcoin kneels first → Asia-Pacific follows with a plunge.
Watch three critical lifelines: PPI must not explode again, US Treasury yields hold at 5.2%, BTC stands back above 83,000. But just control your hands, don’t bottom fish! $BTC $ETH #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 $ZEC's short position floating profit has already reached 317%, but I’m not planning to hold on stubbornly; securing the profit is the key!
Opened a short near 1235, 50x full position. At that time, the 4-hour rebound was weak, 1300 could never be held above, moving averages kept suppressing, and selling pressure on the order book once reached 85%, with buying only 15%, clearly the bears were in control.
ZEC has fallen all the way from the high to 1156, not far from the previous low at 1111. Once the hype around altcoins fades, prices may be revalued, and coins lacking sustained narrative support are more prone to chip battles.
But the closer to the previous low, the more you can’t blindly chase shorts. There may be support at the low, and bears taking profits and bottom-fishing funds could trigger a sharp rebound.
My approach: gradually take profits off the table, keep a small base position to observe if 1111 can be effectively broken.
Shorting profits from trends and sentiment fading, not from needing to catch the entire drop. Especially with 50x full position, even a slight rebound can quickly amplify risk.
This time I’m not aiming to sell at the lowest point, just to truly lock in the profit!
#ZEC #BTC #ETH #ContractTrading #CryptoMarket#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 Regarding #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓, here are my four points:
1. Made a killing: 46.7 billion in 9 months, exceeding all global estimates, even more than last year's full-year earnings.
2. All thanks to AI boost: The whole world is into artificial intelligence, with $NVDA and others; if you want to make AI chips, you have to beg for foundry services, and $TSM's message is clear: get in line.
3. Standing out among peers: $SAMSUNG, Intel—only TSMC's products are truly high-end.
4. Don't get carried away: AI chips are 🔥, but mobile and automotive chips are just so-so, with long-term risks. #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 **评级：买入 | 目标价 ADR $555 / 台股 3,300 新台币** > ⚠️ **重要时点提示**：今天（10/15）正是台积电 Q3 法人说明会。报告已纳入已公布的 Q3 营收，但**实际毛利率、营业利润率、Q4 指引尚未揭晓**，这是当前最大的信息缺口。 ### 核心论点 台积电不是在 AI 竞赛中"受益"的公司之一，而是**所有主要 AI 技术路线都必须经过的物理瓶颈**——英伟达 GPU、谷歌 TPU、AMD、AWS Trainium、微软 Maia、Meta MTIA 无一例外。竞争者的差距不在单点技术，而在制造规模 + 良率 + 客户信任构成的系统性护城河。 ### 三个买入理由 | # | 论点 | 关键证据 | |---|---|---| | 1 | **先进制程近乎垄断，差距在拉大** | A16（1.6nm）已完成开发，2026 Q4 量产；三星 1.4nm 从 2027 **推迟至 2029**；英特尔 14A 需 2028 才风险试产 | | 2 | **CoWoS 封装是比制程更硬的瓶颈** | 月产能 3$SNDK
Many friends are watching SNDK closely, thinking the drop has been significant and wondering if it has bottomed out. Don't be too optimistic yet; the external market environment is not favorable. The South Korean semiconductor sector is collectively weakening, with Samsung and Hynix plunging sharply, dragging down the entire memory segment. Coupled with continuous breakthroughs in domestic memory technology, the market is starting to reassess the previously hot AI storage demand and question the authenticity of its actual implementation. Once expectations loosen, bullish sentiment cools rapidly. Even if SNDK itself has thematic support, it is difficult to defy the overall sector trend.
Currently, long position holders are in a tough spot: afraid to exit and sell at the lowest point, yet worried about further declines if they add positions—caught in a dilemma.
#Tesla delivery exceeds expectations, profit recovery becomes the focus
⚠️This is only a personal market view and does not constitute trading advice $MSTR 6% off to buy BTC?#TSMCOct15Earnings #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓
Focus on gross margin; overseas factory construction and capital expenditures will increase cost pressure, and gross margin is expected to slightly decline.
The risk lies in that if AI customers' capital expenditures slow down temporarily, or overseas factory construction continues to erode profit margins, valuation will be under pressure. Overall performance is highly likely to meet or slightly exceed expectations, but the stock price game focus will shift from revenue to medium- and long-term capital returns.#TSMCOct15Earnings
TSMC reports Q3 today and the revenue part is basically already out: monthly sales add up to NT$1.494T (~US$46.7B), +51% YoY and above the top of the US$44.6–45.8B guidance. So the real test today isn't the top line. It's three things: (1) gross margin vs the 65–67% guide while 2nm ramps, (2) Q4 guidance, (3) any change to the US$60–64B capex. A clean beat on margin plus a strong Q4 guide = AI demand still running hot.12小时清算热力图里，$BTC、$ETH、$SOL 上方同时堆着三块空头“痛点区”，像三块磁铁，但磁铁从来不负责指路。 先看数据：$BTC 上方 84375.7 附近聚集约 3218 万美元空头清算，距现价仅 +0.74%；$ETH 在 2545.16 附近约 1398 万美元，距离 +1.3%；$SOL 在 108.85 附近约 200 万美元，距离 +1.03%。三个币种的痛点区都落在1%出头的范围内，这种密度很容易让人产生“一捅就爆”的错觉。 但密集不等于必然触及。真正值得注意的信号是：三块痛点区同时贴近现价，说明杠杆多头和空头都在同一价格带附近加码，市场处于一种“谁先动谁吃亏”的僵持结构。而历史经验反复证明，重大数据公布前，痛点区往往不是突破的跳板，而是猎杀止损的诱饵——插一下、扫一轮、再收回来，是更常见的剧本。 换句话说，清算图告诉你哪里痛，但不告诉你什么时候痛。把痛点当突破信号，等于把地图当路标。 更值得警惕的是第二层效应：一旦上方空头被强行清算，推升的那一波往往来得又快又猛，但随后的反扑同样凶狠。因为清算驱动的上涨不依赖真实买盘，燃料烧完就没了，追高的人反而成为下一轮的痛#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 TSMC's Q3 earnings report is about to be released. After record-high revenue, where is the market's real "winning move"?
TSMC's Q3 revenue is about 1.49 trillion New Taiwan Dollars, a year-on-year increase of about 50%, setting a new historical high. However, on the market, TSM and xTSM saw about a 2% pullback, indicating that the market has already priced in the positive revenue news. The focus now is on the following three points:
* Gross margin and profit realization: The company previously forecasted a Q3 gross margin of 65% to 67%. Whether net profit can also achieve significant growth is the direct driver determining if the short-term stock price can continue to hit new highs.
* Q4 guidance and capital expenditure: Compared to the already announced Q3 data, investors pay more attention to Q4 revenue guidance and whether capital expenditure will be raised. This directly reflects the sustainability of strong downstream AI chip demand.
* Sentiment and trading strategy: If guidance only meets expectations, beware of a "buy the rumor, sell the news" style pullback; if capital expenditure and guidance are raised beyond expectations, AI concepts and related tokenized US stocks may usher in a new round of rallies.
After tonight's earnings call, will everyone prefer to position early or wait for the guidance to be released before trading with the trend? #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓
Do you think TSMC can break records again with this earnings report?
According to the latest data, TSMC's Q3 revenue soared to 1.49 trillion New Taiwan Dollars, approximately 46.7 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 51% $TSM
Market forecasts net profit to reach 746.3 billion New Taiwan Dollars, which if realized, would mark six consecutive quarters of record-high profits. In this AI-driven market, it remains the steady water seller on the fishing platform.
Compared to Q3 results, two variables attract more attention:
▶️ Gross margin and guidance
Last quarter's gross margin was 67.7%, with official estimates for Q3 between 65% and 67%. Against the backdrop of 3nm being snapped up by Nvidia and Apple, it remains to be seen if management will raise full-year revenue growth forecasts and increase capital expenditures.
▶️ The Texas factory drama
Elon Musk proposed the Terafab chip park plan, with TSMC possibly only leasing. The Arizona plant is not yet finalized, so moving to Texas is not urgent; it seems more like a long-term layout post-2030 or a geopolitical bargaining chip.
Compared to chip manufacturing, the real bottleneck is advanced packaging CoWoS; testing and packaging capacity can't keep up, so AI chips still can't be delivered on time.
Looking ahead:
▶️ Short-term caution against all good news being priced in
Even if data is strong, if gross margin guidance slows, the stock price may experience short-term volatility and pullback.
▶️ Long-term moat is very deep
Tech giants' self-developed chips still rely on its technology and yield in the short term; in the coming years, it remains the biggest beneficiary of AI dividends.
Do you think it will take Elon Musk's offer in Texas, or steadily focus on Arizona?
DYOR MSFT/USDT Perpetual $MSFT
I mentioned yesterday afternoon that I shorted MSFT.
Friends who followed can give a like, showing that my sharing can still help some people.
The logic is simple: this is a new high major top, and it has tested twice before without breaking through, indicating resistance still exists.
So just boldly short it!
For the position here, braver friends can even go bigger because the stop loss is very clear—it's a new high.
The upper and lower limits of the box range are the simplest and most certain structure.
I'm not saying it will definitely rise at the lower limit or fall at the upper limit.
Rather: the entry point is known, the stop loss is also known, and it's clearly known.
This is the most satisfying position for beginners to trade.
If you say MSFT's market cap is too big and the profit isn't much.
Well, it has risen from 350 on 6/26 to 550 now, a 50% increase in four months. BTC in a bull market is roughly at this level too, right?
Wouldn't you want to earn money with certainty?$BTC expected 3.6, actually released 3.7 (US September CPI exceeded expectations), logic is clear and easy to understand.
Expected 3.6, actual 3.7: Latest interpretation of US inflation data
On the evening of October 14, the US released September CPI inflation data, with the market unanimously expecting 3.6%, but the actual figure came in at 3.7%, slightly exceeding expectations, completely changing the short-term market rhythm.
Although it's only a 0.1% difference, this is a very critical recent inflation reversal signal and the core reason for global market volatility that day.
1. Core data comparison (easy to understand at a glance)
Market expected CPI year-on-year: 3.6%
Actual released CPI year-on-year: 3.7%
Previous value (last month): 3.4%
Core CPI: 2.6%, also higher than expected
In simple terms: inflation did not continue to cool down, but instead rose again, hotter than everyone expected.
This time, CPI rose 0.6% month-on-month, the largest monthly increase in nearly half a year, indicating that the current price increase speed is accelerating, not a temporary fluctuation.
2. Why did it exceed expectations?
The main driver of this inflation rebound is the sharp rise in energy prices.
Recently, oil prices have continued to rise, directly driving up transportation, fuel, and commodity costs, combined with still strong consumer resilience, making overall price decline difficult.
The market originally expected inflation to continue to decline steadily and the Federal Reserve to maintain a loose policy pace, but the data directly "slapped" the loose expectations.
3. What does the 0.1 difference actually affect?
Many people think a 0.1% difference is negligible, but the financial market looks at trend turning points.#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 TSMC's revenue record was already known to the market before October 15. Treating the same fact as a sudden positive surprise on the earnings day might be a step behind the rhythm.
The company announced on October 8 that September revenue grew 54.6% year-over-year but declined 0.6% month-over-month. This contrast is interesting: strong long-term growth does not mean every month is higher than the previous one. Small monthly fluctuations are also insufficient to conclude the overall AI demand.
After the monthly revenue was disclosed in advance, the focus of the earnings report should shift forward. How the next quarter's orders are arranged, which demands can be sustained, and whether customers are pulling orders ahead are more informative than repeating the already public total figures.
In the conference call, I especially want to hear about the timing distribution of orders. If customers place orders early to lock in supply, and the subsequent demand expands in sync with actual usage, the implications for the next few quarters differ. It is not yet clear which situation applies. This question is worth keeping.
Being optimistic about TSMC does not require every aspect to have only good news. Strong companies also face changes in order rhythms. What truly makes me cautious is that people increasingly need bigger growth numbers to be satisfied, yet no one asks what can exceed expectations next quarter. For this earnings report, I want to hear more about follow-up arrangements and less about celebrating the existing records.
#台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？ After the CPI release on the evening of October 14, both the stock market and crypto fell together. $SOL dropped from 113 to just over 100 dollars this week, a 10% decline from the high to the low.
When prices fall, first distinguish who is selling. Whether the money is flowing out of futures or spot markets, the subsequent market situation differs.
The futures columns don’t seem to be running. The funding rate has remained positive, rising to 0.0097% at midnight on October 15, meaning longs continue to pay shorts. Open interest increased from 8.44 million to 8.96 million contracts, prices fell, but positions increased. The long-short ratio of large accounts rose from 2.58 to 2.89.
On the spot side, it’s the opposite: the proportion of active sell orders reached 58% on October 15, compared to around 48% in previous days. Active sells directly consume buy orders; a high proportion means sellers are eager to exit.
Spot chips are being sold, while large holders on futures are taking them in. This combination has appeared 7 times in the past 500 trading days; in the following 7 days, 4 times the price rose and 3 times it fell, with a median increase of 3.3%, the best up 24.3%, and the worst down 6.4%. The median for all trading days in the same period was a 0.5% decline.
The sample size is only 7, so it can’t be considered a rule, but at least spot selling doesn’t necessarily mean continued decline. What to watch is whether the batch of longs taking the chips is still there; if the funding rate drops to negative and open interest falls accordingly, it means the holders have changed this round.
ETF outflows are only a bit over one million dollars per day, negligible compared to daily volume of 3 billion; it’s not the main force in this move.#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓
$TSM Q3 revenue reached a new high of 1.49 trillion New Taiwan Dollars, up 50% year-over-year, exceeding the company's USD guidance upper limit by 2%. This figure was disclosed on October 8 along with the monthly revenue, and the market has had seven days to digest it.
Last night after the US stock market closed, ASML raised its full-year 2026 guidance for the third consecutive quarter, with net profit doubling year-over-year. ADR fell 4%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 4.3%. On the same day, US September CPI was 3.7% year-over-year and core CPI 2.6%, both exceeding expectations. The probability of a rate hike in October jumped from 22% to 37%, but the market is not yet paying for the surprise.
ASML's earnings report showed a gross margin of 57.5%, surpassing the guidance upper limit, driven by service and upgrades based on installed equipment. The doubling of net profit included a pre-tax valuation gain of about 510 million from Mistral AI. Management said customers are already inquiring about equipment for 2029 and 2030.
TSMC will hold its earnings call today at 2 PM. Revenue is clear, the only suspense is the gross margin. Last quarter it was 67.7%, guidance is 65% to 67%, consensus at 66.5%.
2nm actually accounted for 3% in Q2; Bank of America estimates 11% in Q3 and 18% in Q4, above 67%, supporting 70% next year. Below 66%, the sell-side curve would need to be adjusted downward. $xTSM
$ASML said supply will be insufficient from 2027 to 2028, and TSMC will update its 2027 capital expenditure plan today.#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 In the model, the cautious/benchmark/optimistic scenarios adopt tax rates of approximately 18%/17%/16%, and diluted shares of 4.22/4.20/4.18 billion respectively; net non-operating expenses are about $130 million/$110 million/$90 million respectively. Therefore, the optimistic scenario includes joint improvements in profit margin, tax rate, and share count.TSMC's record revenue is old news. Today's real test: margins.
Q3 revenue: ~NT$1.49T, up ~50% YoY, record high (already confirmed) Q3 gross margin guide: 65-67%
Last quarter it printed 67.7%, above the top of its own guide
Earnings call: Oct 15, 14:00 Taiwan time.
Revenue is the headline. Profit growth is the question.
Where does Q3 gross margin land?
- Above 67%
- 65-67%
- Below 65%
#TSMCOct15Earnings #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 Four questions determine the direction
Can the full-year guidance be raised again? Morgan Stanley expects it to be adjusted from "above 40%" to "mid to low 40%", while Goldman Sachs forecasts a 42% full-year growth in 2026. The Q4 revenue is expected to decrease by 0.05 quarter-over-quarter. The record revenue of TSMC was already known by the market before October 15. Treating the same fact as a sudden positive surprise on the earnings day might already be a step behind the pace. #特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点
Tesla will showcase the long-delayed Roadster at an event in Texas on October 15, planning to demonstrate levitation using SpaceX rocket technology, employing compressed gas thrusters to lift the car body, with no one inside. Elon Musk is reportedly warning employees that this performance "is difficult to accomplish and may go wrong." According to BeInCrypto, the market focus is whether this unveiling will boost the stock price or repeat the sell-off seen after previous product launches.
Tesla's stock closed at $375.23 on Tuesday, about 25% below its 52-week high. Historically, after the 2019 Cybertruck launch, the stock dropped 6%; after the October 2024 Cybercab launch, it fell 8.3%; and following another Cybercab event on September 4, it declined another 5.92%. Analysts say that if clear pricing, mass production, and delivery schedules are provided, TSLA could gain support; otherwise, the first trading day on October 16 may face disappointment. $TSLA #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins
Netflix reports Q3 after the close on Oct 20. Guidance calls for ~$12.86B in revenue, up ~12% YoY, so the bar is already set. The real swing factors are ad-tier adoption, inventory fill rate, and CPM trends. If ads scale while margins hold, the growth narrative stays intact. Watching operating margin and Q4 guidance closely$FIL perpetual 50x short position, opened at 1.1481, currently at 1.0667, floating profit +354.49%.
The idea is very simple: the top consolidates with volume shrinking to the extreme, volatility compressed to the floor, indicating that chips are ready to be distributed. A single high-volume bearish candle smashed the price down from 1.1481, a typical breakdown signal, shorting is favored over longing. 50x leverage, stop loss at 1.20. The trend goes straight down, giving no comfortable exit point, profits take off directly.
At this position, I plan to first reduce half the position to take profits, and move the stop loss of the remaining half up to 1.08 to let profits run. If 1.00 breaks down with volume, continue holding; if it doesn't break, close all positions. $BTC $ETH #特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ Still bearish On Thursday 10.15, are you prepared for a market trend that kills both longs and shorts? Was the consolidation around 818 last night just to cut again this morning?
How would you choose in this market? Does this spike look intimidating? But the 80k level still held, that's the harshest father to the bears. Simply put, if inflation isn't suppressed and liquidity tightening expectations return, that's the biggest short-term bearish factor. On the other hand, on-chain ETF funds haven't seen large-scale outflows, which supports the market a bit, preventing a crash or sharp drop. For BTC to break through the 843 resistance level, it needs to pull back to activate buying below, then test resistance on the way up with volume to break through.
Technically, in the 4-hour downtrend wave, a short-term rebound can't surpass 828, and there may be a pullback to test the 80k level. MACD shows a death cross; bears shortening the move doesn't mean bulls control the market, but it does activate buying below. The hourly chart shows a wick recovery, now rebuilding positions between 810-818; without volume to hold above 820, it’s not considered a strength reversal.
In summary, bulls still dominate intraday; buy on pullbacks in the 803-808 range, chase longs on volume holding above 820 on the right side, targeting 828, 843, 852 $BTC #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 Two points to consider:
1. If 60k is the bottom, then why not be optimistic about BTC's future upside? You can refer to the previous cycle's ETH performance. ETH bottomed out in June 2022, only dropping for half a year. As a large-cap coin smaller in scale than BTC, its decline was surprisingly not greater than Bitcoin's. There was no major crash, the shakeout was incomplete, the position was heavy, so there was no big rally. ETH's underperformance in the last cycle is obvious. Strictly speaking, Bitcoin also only dropped for half a year this round.
2. Why is there no big rally without a big crash? Think carefully about the best market conditions in the crypto space over the past decade. One was after September 4, 2017, and the other after March 12, 2020. Both were mass extinction events. The law of nature is that nothing is built without breaking the old. If the old doesn't go, the new can't come. The old financial groups keep controlling resources, so new groups can't enter, chips can't accumulate, and the market can't restart.
Only another big exodus can possibly replay a desperate counterattack. If the chips held by institutions can't be washed out, then we have to accept a half-dead crypto market.HYPE current price is about $80, down approximately 18% from the late September peak near $98, testing the $80 support. The team completed an OTC distribution of 3.75 million tokens (about $330 million) in October to avoid public selling pressure, with some already re-staked. The protocol's cumulative revenue exceeds $1.4 billion, the Assistance Fund has repurchased over 48 million tokens, spending $1.36 billion, with holdings valued at about $3.95 billion; the value return mechanism remains strong. In the short term, it is dragged down by market pullbacks, ETF capital outflows, and long liquidations, but the dominance of perpetual trading and buyback burn still support the fundamentals, with around $80 possibly becoming a key battleground.Google Cloud's 82% growth rate is not simply a celebration of good news; it is a major test of returns under heavy investment. The rapid growth is already confirmed, but the core dilemma in the market now is whether the massive spending can be converted into stable cash flow.
The enterprise demand for AI computing power is genuinely exploding, directly driving Google Cloud's revenue surge. The large backlog of orders has already secured the basic foundation for the foreseeable future, and this main growth trajectory remains unshaken.
However, to secure the AI track, Google has raised its full-year capital expenditure for 2026 to $195-205 billion. The cost of aggressively investing in computing infrastructure is short-term pressure on cash flow. The market no longer simply chases revenue growth but begins to price in the payback period of massive capital investments. The biggest question on investors' minds is: with so much money invested, will profits keep pace with expansion?
Currently, bulls are betting on sustained hot AI demand, expecting scale effects to dilute costs later and future profit margins to improve; bears worry about an endless arms race in computing power that continuously erodes profits and prolongs the investment return cycle. The Q3 earnings report on October 28 will focus on three macro indicators: the profit margin level of the cloud business, the rhythm guidance of capital expenditure, and management's long-term judgment on AI commercialization.
The track is definitely upward in the long term, but the short term is full of uncertainty. Do not prematurely bet on the market just because of impressive growth. Revenue is only paper heat; the efficiency of investment returns is the key to pricing. $GOOGL $xGOOGL #谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？ Conclusion first: $WAL defies the trend with a 24-hour +46% gain — while 262 major coins fell, it alone stayed in the green. The 4H volume and price clearly show this is not sector rotation; someone is controlling the market.
Data (OKX public market):
- From 10-14 04:00 to 10-15 04:00, 4H continuous volume increase: 240K → 5.2M → 23.14M → 40.41M → 42.68M → 46.18M;
- Price surged from 0.038 to a high of 0.067, currently at 0.0602;
- During the same period BTC -2.89%, ETH -5.73%, SOL -4.88%.
Structure: Five consecutive large-volume bullish candles, a typical small-cap counter-trend rally — the volume scale compared to the major market dropping this much yet still rallying straight up strongly suggests a single force behind it. Key support is at 0.055; if it holds the sideways consolidation, there is a right-side opportunity; if it breaks, this wave is a short-term hunt.
This does not constitute investment advice. Have you ever seen a coin that stays green alone while the entire market is red? $WALThe countdown begins for the allocation of 61,900 $BTC, with a Chinese court accepting the disposal application
Announcement from Tianjin No. 2 Intermediate People's Court: On September 28, the court accepted the judicial disposal application for the crypto assets involved in the Qian Zhimin case, targeting 61,896.41552945 $BTC, valued at about 5 billion USD at current prices, along with a batch of coins including $XRP and $DOGE. The initial report was by The Paper on October 14, followed by multiple English media outlets confirming the story, essentially solid evidence. Coupled with the October 12 ruling by the London High Court that "ownership disputes are subject to Chinese law," the victims' direct retrieval of the coins is basically blocked, and these coins will most likely be disposed of by Chinese judicial authorities.
To put it plainly, this is not a market-driven event today but a sword hanging over $BTC. It is common for sovereign governments to liquidate large seized coin holdings—Germany sold over 50,000 coins in 2024, and the US has done the same. The 61,900 coins represent about 0.3% of circulating supply; if liquidation proceeds, the market will definitely feel it. The short-term market has not priced this in yet, but with each step forward in the legal process, this "potential selling pressure" shifts from rumor to confirmed fact. Next, watch two things: when the disposal ruling will be issued and whether the execution plan includes liquidation clauses. These will be the key factors determining whether these coins will be dumped onto the market.#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 $xTSEM TSMC will release its full Q3 financial report and hold an earnings call on October 15. According to the preliminary monthly data disclosed, Q3 revenue reached NT$1.49 trillion, a year-on-year increase of about 50%, setting a historical high. The company estimates the gross margin for this quarter to be in the range of 65%-67%.
The impressive revenue is mainly driven by strong orders for AI chips. With the revenue data now confirmed, market focus has shifted from revenue figures to whether net profit can also grow significantly, validating the realization of high gross margins; at the same time, there is high attention on Q4 revenue guidance and capital expenditure plans.
The market generally anticipates that the high optimism for AI has already been partially priced into the stock. Ahead of the earnings report, TSM stock price has pulled back, with funds playing the risk of positive news being realized. If the Q4 performance guidance only meets market expectations, it will be difficult to drive the stock price higher; only an increase in capital expenditure and an outlook for Q4 business exceeding expectations will create new positive catalysts. Management's judgment on future AI chip demand during the earnings call will also influence short-term sentiment in the semiconductor sector.Core data: Q3 revenue reached 1.49 trillion New Taiwan Dollars (approximately 46.7 billion USD), a year-on-year increase of 51%, setting a new single-quarter record and significantly exceeding the upper limit of previous guidance; 2nm process has started contributing revenue, 3nm/5nm capacity remains fully utilized, HPC (AI computing chips) is the main growth driver, combined with Apple's 2nm orders, the proportion of advanced process technology continues to rise.
1. AI computing demand is the strongest fundamental driver
Orders for Nvidia's new generation GPUs and cloud providers' self-developed ASICs continue to pour in. HPC business unit prices are much higher than consumer chips, and with CoWoS advanced packaging, product structure optimization brings high gross margins. This is not simply about selling more wafers at higher prices; the share of high-end, high value-added orders is increasing, giving strong pricing power.
2. Smooth ramp-up of 2nm, widening the technology gap
In Q3, the revenue contribution from 2nm significantly increased, with Apple and AMD both adopting it simultaneously. TSMC is the only manufacturer globally capable of stable mass production of 2nm, and the technical barriers are difficult for Samsung and Intel to catch up with in the short term. The monopoly advantage of advanced process technology will remain solid for the next 2-3 years.
3. Dual engines: AI + HPC + Apple iPhone
HPC drives long-term high growth, while Apple's new iPhone contract manufacturing provides stable quarterly increments, smoothing out cyclical fluctuations. The recovery of consumer electronics combined with the high momentum of AI, with two high-value customers pushing simultaneously, is the key to this quarter's better-than-expected performance. At 8:30 last night, the moment I was watching the CPI data release, the market almost instantly plunged. The US September CPI year-on-year was 3.7%, expected 3.6%; core year-on-year 2.6%, expected 2.5%; core monthly rate 0.3%, expected 0.2%. All three exceeded expectations, none met expectations. The CPI annual rate hit a new high since May, and core CPI exceeded expectations for the second consecutive month. Energy prices rose 5.2%, gasoline up 9.1%—the fuel costs from the Iran war have truly been transmitted into inflation. I previously predicted core CPI at 0.2% would meet expectations, but that judgment was wrong. The market was wrong just like me, so the reaction was especially severe. BTC dropped from 84,348 straight down to 80,168, falling 4,180 points in four hours, a decline of 4.96%. The most critical point is that the 81,500 level was broken—this is the estimated comprehensive cost baseline for the US spot BTC ETF and also BTC's 400-day moving average. For the past three weeks, the daily closing price has steadily stayed above this line; the market regarded it as the "institutional cost line," believing institutions would not let the price fall below their cost. But last night it broke, and broke decisively, with no decent rebound. There was $1.716 billion liquidated across the entire network in 24 hours, 85% from longs. In the last hour alone, $525 million was liquidated, accounting for 31% of the whole day—this indicates the crash was a concentrated outbreak, with leveraged longs wiped out in one sweep. Nasdaq futures fell over 2%, S&P down 1.26%, gold down 2%, silver and gold...CoreWeave dropped from 78 to 63 in just one week, bond yields soared to 15%, is the "refinancing" of AI computing power about to collapse?
Market overview: OKX xCRWV overnight quote at 63.55, a 19% pullback from the 24h high of 78.37; trading volume 2.957 billion USDT, turnover rate 13%, sell orders account for 99%, panic is not over yet.
The event chain is solid: On October 14, the US stock market plunged 16% directly, triggering AI infrastructure financing risks; bonds maturing in 2032 with a 9.625% coupon saw yields rise to 14.8%; FT revealed CoreWeave is bringing insurance companies in as new bondholders, which made the market even more nervous; chip financing has exceeded $35 billion, and analysts warned "if the AI cycle stalls, equity could go to zero."
This is not just a company issue, but a crack in the AI capital expenditure narrative: the business model of GPU computing power leasing is to borrow at high interest to buy chips and then rent them out, the chain is most vulnerable when interest rates and demand both turn sour; concerns about a private credit bubble will transmit along this chain to the entire new cloud sector, even Nvidia's backing can't hold it down.
Watch bond yields as a panic thermometer; US stocks tonight will watch AI sector linkage, no chasing rebounds; OKX support at 63.45, if broken look to 61.85, resistance at 65.75. DYOR, not investment advice.
#CoreWeave #AI computing power #US stock tokens