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Why coins that "remain unmoved" during a major market crash aren't necessarily strong?
When I first learned to read relative strength, I especially liked to find coins that resist falling.
If BTC drops 10%, other altcoins drop 30%, and it only drops 3%, I would think there must be big money supporting it behind the scenes.
Later, after some pitfalls, I realized there are two types of resistance to falling: one is that someone keeps buying, the other is that no one is trading at all.
I once bought a small coin that barely moved during a market crash; its order book looked as stable as a fixed sea-calming needle.
I thought funds were accumulating against the trend, but when the market slightly recovered and other coins started to rebound, it still had no trades. When a few big holders finally sold, the thin buy orders were instantly crushed, and one candlestick wiped out several days' worth of losses for others.
There are also some low-liquidity projects with highly concentrated holdings; the price doesn't fall simply because the main holders haven't sold yet. This kind of stability is not market recognition but risk that hasn't been realized. Once unlocked, market makers withdraw orders, or big holders transfer coins to exchanges, the past "resistance to falling" can turn into a liquidity gap.
To judge strength or weakness, you can't just look at the drop percentage; you also need to see if trading is active, whether there is active buying in the spot market, if it can lead new highs during rebounds, and whether this performance can endure multiple adjustments.
Remember: true strength means it doesn't fall even when someone sells; stability created without trades is not resistance to falling, it's just risk that hasn't found a price yet. #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓
Key points on TSMC's Q3 profitability are as follows:
Strong certainty of high growth: The market expects Q3 net profit to increase by 65% year-on-year to NT$746.3 billion, with a very high probability of setting a new historical high, continuing the trend of positive profit growth for 11 consecutive quarters.
Profit growth outpaces revenue: This quarter's revenue increased by 50% year-on-year, with profit growth exceeding revenue growth by 15 percentage points. This is mainly driven by AI orders boosting the share of high value-added customized foundry business, enhancing profit quality.
Short-term slight pressure on profit margins: Due to the dilution effect of ramp-up costs for the 2nm process, the company guides a gross margin of 65%-67% and an operating margin of 56%-58% for this quarter, slightly lower than Q2. Institutions expect actual figures to be close to the upper end of the guidance.
Long-term cost variables remain: After a cumulative capital expenditure of US$265 billion on overseas fabs, amortization will be spread over the years, potentially slowly squeezing future profit margins. This is the core long-term profitability focus of this earnings report.#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验
US stock market analysis: CPI exploded, rate hike bets doubled, AI leveraged stocks crash first as a warning
As soon as last night's CPI data came out, the market immediately turned sour. September CPI year-on-year surged to 3.7%, core CPI month-on-month 0.3%, all exceeding expectations. Traders instantly raised the probability of an October rate hike from 22% to 49%, and the chance of at least one hike before year-end soared to 95%.
The asset reaction was direct: The US dollar index jumped to 102.75, hitting an 18-month high; the 10-year US Treasury yield surged back above 5.3%; gold and Bitcoin both came under pressure and fell. On the oil side, gasoline rose 7.1%, the energy index overall climbed 5.2%, becoming the biggest driver of inflation.
The hardest hit in the stock market were the highly leveraged AI stocks. Oracle fell 7.8%, CoreWeave plummeted over 11%—this company's bond yields have already shot above 15%, with the market pricing in its inability to hold up. AI server manufacturers Dell and HP were also downgraded by Barclays, falling 11.5% and 7.8% respectively.
Chip stocks were even worse, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index hitting a six-day losing streak. Nvidia, AMD, and Micron all declined across the board; CoreWeave’s dual stock and bond sell-off exposed the fragility of the entire AI infrastructure financing chain.
In summary: Inflation is stickier than expected, energy is permeating core services, and rate hike expectations cannot be suppressed in the short term. Highly leveraged AI concept stocks built on debt are the most dangerous.$XAU - $BTC - Why did both plummet sharply after the news release?
Today, three economic news items were rated three stars, with two indicators exceeding expectations. I believe the sharp decline continuing until now may be due to a combination of the following three factors:
1. News boosting the US dollar:
Better-than-expected data intensified market concerns that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates for a long time. A stronger dollar and rising yields put pressure on gold, the Nasdaq index, and Bitcoin.
2. Investors reducing risk:
When interest rate expectations change, funds may flow out of assets sensitive to rates and risk. This is one reason why all three assets were sold off.
3. Semi-amplification:
When prices break support levels, stop-loss and close-out buy orders may trigger further sell orders, causing prices to continue falling sharply even after the news has been released.
News may trigger the decline, macroeconomic expectations may pressure the market, and order flow may exacerbate the drop.
My view is that it is still too early to conclude that institutional investors are selling simultaneously, as there is no data on their holdings yet. Which factor do you lean towards most? ONDO: Why is the RWA sector benchmark considered "not worth a single share" in the eyes of smart money?
When the flagship project ONDO in the Real World Assets (RWA) sector fell below the $0.45 mark, even the smart money best at capturing fundamental improvements was unwilling to build positions. The market is questioning in the coldest way: Has the tokenized government bond business model really been proven?
From the data perspective, ONDO is currently priced at $0.4456, with a market cap of $2.17 billion, a 24-hour drop of 4.36% hitting a recent high, and volatility exceeding 7%. A daily trading volume of $9.27 million corresponds to about a 0.43% turnover rate, indicating extremely thin liquidity—an institutional-grade asset allocation target should enjoy premium liquidity, but in practice, it is even worse than mid-sized altcoins. The price has been sliding unilaterally within the $0.4417-$0.4749 range, with bulls completely losing ground.
Smart money delivers the most direct verdict: net short, net position zero, and zero long traders. Even hedge funds most optimistic about the long-term logic of RWA cannot calculate a positive risk-adjusted return under the current interest rate environment—high U.S. Treasury yields, inverted on-chain yields, and unrelieved token unlocking pressure create triple suppression, making staying out the only rational choice.
Core judgment: ONDO is experiencing a combined decline due to fundamental realization and liquidity exhaustion. Unless the Federal Reserve begins a rate cut cycle that drives on-chain yields to surpass, it will continue to bottom out.#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓
This earnings season, TSMC is quite an interesting case. The early release of Q3 revenue truly set a new historical record, with a year-over-year increase of 50%, and the data is genuinely impressive.
But here's the interesting part: after the news came out, the stock price actually dropped a bit. Simply put, the market had already anticipated that AI orders would push revenue up, so now everyone isn’t focused on how much product was sold; their attention is fully on the profits.
High revenue doesn’t mean everything is perfect. Right now, everyone is watching whether the gross margin can hold steady in the 65–67% range, along with the business outlook for Q4.
The short-term stock price decline is more about risk aversion after good news has been priced in, so it’s not necessarily a bearish signal. The real demand for AI chips is still in hand. However, there won’t be any more blind hype; good revenue is just a ticket to the game. Whether they can actually make money will be answered by the full earnings report tonight. Whether the stock can continue to strengthen depends on if profits can keep pace with revenue.#solana is scheduled for the Alpenglow upgrade on October 21
[Old Leek Observation] $SOL will undergo a core upgrade next week: confirmation time targeted at 150 milliseconds
Solana official has scheduled the Alpenglow mainnet switch for October 21. This is not an ordinary parameter adjustment but a replacement of the long-running TowerBFT with the new Votor consensus mechanism.
Currently, Solana's transaction finality takes about 12.8 seconds; the new mechanism aims to reduce this to around 150 milliseconds. Simply put, the goal is to make transactions reach an irreversible state faster, which has potential value for high-frequency trading, on-chain transaction applications, and scenarios requiring rapid settlement.
First, 150 milliseconds is the target, not a guarantee that the mainnet will stably achieve this under all network conditions immediately after launch.
Second, the new mechanism will move validator voting out of regular transaction blocks, so the number of transactions displayed on-chain may change after the upgrade. One should not judge Solana's user activity solely by the rise or fall in transaction count.
Third, SOL's price will also depend on whether the market has already priced in the expectations. If there was a price increase before the upgrade, profit-taking might occur at the official switch; if the upgrade is successfully implemented, actual performance improves, and capital continues to flow in, the technical advantage has a better chance to translate into sustained demand.
My judgment: this is a clear technical catalyst but not an unconditional bullish signal #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 TSMC's Q3 revenue reached approximately NT$1.49 trillion, up about 50% year-on-year, setting a new record high. Strong revenue does not guarantee a winning financial report; tonight's focus is on gross margin, net profit, and Q4 guidance. AI computing power orders are the main reason, with companies like Nvidia relying on it for foundry services; however, high costs of building factories in the US and slow yield ramp-up pose hidden risks. Revenue is set, but the real reveal tonight is the profit performance.#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验
US Stock Market Close Summary: Apple Holds Firm at $5 Trillion, CoreWeave's Stock and Bonds Crash, Spooking Musk
The three major indexes all closed lower: Dow down 0.35%, Nasdaq down 0.15%, S&P 500 down 0.02%. On the surface, it seems calm, but there are undercurrents beneath.
In terms of trading volume, Nvidia fell 3.16%, with $25.9 billion traded, ranking first. Jensen Huang made a strong statement: if customers develop unsafe AI software, he will stop supplying. Micron Technology fell 4.08%, ranking second, as storage chips continue to be pressured by technological advances from China's Changxin Memory.
CoreWeave was the biggest shock tonight. Its stock price plummeted 15.46%, bond yields soared above 15%, and the market prices its default probability over the next five years at more than 50%. Musk responded directly with "Scary." This AI cloud service provider is called "the subprime loan segment of the AI field" by analysts; if the AI financing wave recedes, it could go to zero.
Apple, on the other hand, remains very stable. It closed up 0.5%, with its market value surpassing $5 trillion for the first time, becoming the second company after Nvidia to achieve this. SpaceX also stayed busy, releasing the so-called "world's smartest" voice model Grok Voice 3.0, capable of autonomously handling 70% of Starlink's customer service calls.
In summary: The AI sector is undergoing intense differentiation. Companies with real substance like Apple and Meta are rising, while CoreWeave, built on high leverage, is being abandoned by the market. #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓
Core CPI higher than expected, oil prices break 105 again, combined with the upcoming midterm elections. ASML's better-than-expected earnings report still couldn't stop the downward trend. It is estimated that everything will settle after the midterm elections; historically, the US stock market performs well in November and December.Currently, BTC is indeed still very strong, but from a mechanism perspective, if the US and Korean stock markets continue to decline, it will inevitably lead to liquidation and margin replenishment demands. Once this action starts and triggers a stampede, a chain reaction of declines will follow.
The mechanism is here; I really don't know if it will be triggered, but if it were me, I would probably take advantage of BTC still being at 80k to sell and buy the tech stocks that are about to fall into a golden pit. From 80k to 100k is just a 25% increase, but if tech stocks fall into a deep pit, you might get a double return. This math problem should be clear to many. It's just uncertain whether the thin veil will be pierced.
Of course, if you say the strong get stronger and BTC is ready to double to 160k, that's also possible, but after all, it's a low-probability event. $BTC #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 Record top-line growth is a fantastic headline, but in high-capital tech manufacturing, volume alone doesn't guarantee bottom-line efficiency.
With TSMC’s Q3 revenue reaching a record ~NT$1.49T (up ~50% YoY), the top line is clearly being driven by booming demand in AI and advanced semiconductor nodes. However, the core focus now shifts to profitability execution:
- Margin Compression Risks
- Execution over Volume
#TSMCOct15Earnings The busier the project, the token isn't necessarily more valuable
In the past, when evaluating projects, ecosystem growth was often seen as a positive for the token.
Recently, this judgment has started to show problems.
Past consensus:
$ARB, $LDO, and $ONDO all involve governance.
On-chain transactions, staking scale, and growth of financial products were easily regarded as positives.
Current changes:
ARB's fees are collected in ETH, and LDO holders do not receive automatic dividends.
Profits from ONDO's products do not necessarily mean profits for token holders.
Business growth and token returns are inherently different matters.
The most direct impact is that no matter how impressive the project data looks, it cannot directly infer an increase in token value. What truly deserves scrutiny next is whose account the new revenue ultimately goes into.
#渣打开放BTC与ETH交易，银行加密业务扩展 $ARB $LDO Although the South Korean stock market triggered a circuit breaker, there are actually two pieces of good news today: one is that the probability of an interest rate hike in October has dropped again, and the other is that both short-term and long-term U.S. Treasury yields have fallen.
For a long time, the issues troubling the U.S. stock market, besides the aging themes and elevated valuations leading the market to focus on earnings expectations, have been the competition for liquidity among U.S. stocks, U.S. Treasuries, and corporate bonds.
Now, the decline in U.S. stocks will drive liquidity into U.S. Treasuries to ease the Treasury crisis, while gold, which is directly linked to interest rates, remains generally stable. Without a larger liquidity crisis, gold should maintain stability. Even if there is a short-term liquidity crunch causing a drop, the support from central bank gold purchases keeps it very safe, making it a suitable low-risk bottom-fishing asset.
Tonight's PPI data will most likely continue the trend of yesterday's CPI. Even if it unexpectedly comes in lower than expected, the positive impact will probably only trigger a small rebound and cannot reverse the downward trend. After this decline, it will likely take the FOMC decision combined with easing U.S.-Iran tensions and other positive factors to gradually calm the market, so patience is required. #韩股盘中跌近8%，全球科技股集体承压 Even the original $BTC can't escape, 100x short, entered at 83265, marked at 81171.9, floating profit +186.52%. Hundred times leverage shorting BTC, this round can be called "Godslaying," but profits are just on paper until realized.
The market is completely like an electric fan: BTC failed to hold 84100 twice, volume is still shrinking, now hovering around 81100; ETH broke 2580 early from 2626, the rebound is all paper tigers. Altcoin liquidity is all fleeing, even BTC's center of gravity is pushed down, this is either a bottom or just a tired drop taking a breather.
Macroscopically, oil prices falling and ETF inflows can't support 84000, tomorrow night CPI expectations are fully priced in, good news is easily exhausted, bad news will directly crash, high probability of a rise and fall. Geopolitics is eerily quiet, don't take it lightly.
I have locked in some profits in batches on this trade, leaving a base position to watch CPI. Do you dare to short now? Quote your price in the comments. #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 $BTC $ETH $SOL
#PlanetPost｜$954 million liquidated in 24 hours! Epic long liquidation
Latest heatmap data: $954 million liquidated across the entire network in 24 hours, with 178,000 liquidations. 92% of these were long liquidations, shorts only 8%. This is a large-scale long squeeze driven by rising macro interest rate expectations.
By coin structure, ETH is the hardest hit this round, with $287 million liquidated, 92.4% of which were longs; BTC follows with $197 million liquidated, 90.6% longs. Other altcoins and second-tier coins combined liquidated $149 million, also 92.3% longs. ETH leveraged long positions are more concentrated and sensitive to interest rates; once macro negative news hits, stop-loss cascades are much stronger than BTC.
The largest single liquidation was a Binance BTC perpetual long position, amounting to $12.0347 million, indicating that large leveraged longs buying at the top were directly wiped out.
Market sentiment interpretation:
Leveraged longs who previously bet on inflation easing and positioned for a rebound have been almost entirely cleared out; high-leverage bottom-fishing funds have been thoroughly discouraged, and the market is reluctant to easily leverage long positions in the short term;
Very few short liquidations, shorts have not collectively taken profits and exited, indicating the short-side pressure is not yet fully released;
BTC is relatively more resilient than ETH, highlighting its capital flight-to-safety attribute, but overall market confidence is severely damaged, and bottom-fishing willingness has cooled significantly.
Tonight's PPI data is a key variable; if PPI continues to exceed expectations, a new round of long liquidations will follow; if data falls back, it will usher in a window for sentiment recovery. Tesla deliveries exceeded expectations, but don’t rush to count profit recovery in just yet.
On October 2, the company announced Q3 deliveries exceeded 486,000 vehicles, while also revealing energy storage deployments of 13.7 GWh. I think this latter figure shouldn’t be treated as just incidental news. When judging profitability, besides how well the cars sell, we also need to see how much gross margin the energy storage business retains per unit deployed.
Q2 already gave us a ready reminder: energy storage deployments increased, energy business revenue grew year-over-year, but gross margin declined. Shipment volume tells us how many products reached customers, but it doesn’t explain how pricing, costs, and related expenses changed. Directly converting GWh into profit, just like estimating profit solely from car sales, risks making the same mistake.
When the earnings report comes out on October 21, I will look at the automotive and energy businesses separately. If gross margins improve on both sides, the basis for profit recovery will be more solid; if only the delivery numbers look good but profits are eaten up by expenses, then we need to patiently find the reasons. The long-term story of robots can’t answer these questions about current quarter operations.
New businesses can certainly be anticipated. But every time actual profits are under pressure, pushing discussions automatically to the distant future makes me a bit anxious.
How much profit have the already delivered cars and energy storage products actually made? After the report is released, let’s first answer this question.
#特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 $SOON SOON This time, I reviewed it again using the four-cycle matrix.
From 0.17 to 0.56, more than doubled in a month, now back to 0.29.
Many people ask if it has bottomed out — my conclusion is: not yet.
The reason is not the candlestick, but the chips.
▸ 15-minute wick rebound, volume, OI, and price all failed to pass the "rebound closed loop" verification
▸ Retail investors' long-short ratio is 1.42, slightly bullish, but large holders' net long-short ratio is -15.6% — retail is bullish, smart money is shorting
▸ Most importantly: 20.24 million tokens unlock in 8 days (10/23), accounting for 3.4% of circulating market value
In the last 6 unlocks, the average 14-day change was -16.9%
So at this position, the probability of the rebound being a "bull trap" is greater than a "reversal."
My habit of reviewing the market is: first fix the direction of the large cycle, then let the signals of the smaller cycles obey it.
Not to be led by a single 15-minute bullish candle.
The only signal truly worth waiting for is:
A volume surge stabilizing above 0.3105, while OI begins to expand positively.
Missing any of these three conditions does not count as a reversal.
— A market review without emotion#Coinbase整合Deribit，Q3收入能否改善？ ASML's Q3 revenue hits a new high, and whether future demand will materialize is testing risk appetite. UNI, as a high-beta altcoin, cannot remain unaffected; I tend to believe the short-term weakness is not over yet.
From the capital perspective, the current price is 7.028, down 6.1%, with a volume of 17.454 million and open interest of 5.699 million. The positive fee rate of 0.01% indicates bulls are still holding positions, but the 4-hour retracement from the high is 23.59%. Although buyers dominate the 1-hour chart by 1.38 times, the rebound looks more like short covering rather than new long entries.
If it rebounds to 7.135, consider light short positions with a stop loss at 7.318 and a target of 6.695; if it falls to around 6.648 and buying pressure increases, try going long with a stop loss at 6.512 and a target of 7.012. Do not exceed 5% position size per trade.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$UNI #TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, profitability performance to be revealed
#ASML Q3 revenue hits a new high, can future demand be realized?
$UNI TSMC has exploded again. AI is definitely not a bubble! Profit has hit a new high for the sixth consecutive quarter.
Q3 revenue reached NT$1.49 trillion, a year-on-year surge of 51%, with net profit expected at NT$746.3 billion, soaring 65% year-on-year. What does this mean? The money earned in one quarter exceeds the total market cap of some leading crypto projects for the entire last year.
But the real kicker is: TSMC is now essentially the "money printing license" of the AI world.
NVIDIA, AMD, Apple—no matter whose AI chips they are, they all have to queue up for TSMC's production lines. More importantly, CoWoS advanced packaging—over 80% of the world's AI accelerator chips rely on this integration route, and TSMC almost monopolizes the capacity. This is what you call a chokehold, but this time the ones being choked are Silicon Valley giants.
The 2nm process contribution jumped from 3% in Q2 directly to 11% in Q3, with Apple and AMD scrambling to adopt it. Revenue share from advanced processes below 5nm surged to 71%, heading towards 75% in Q4. The product mix is aggressively shifting towards higher gross margins, with pricing power ridiculously strong.
TSMC's performance is the most solid barometer of AI computing power demand. The chip foundry side is frantically expanding production, and the imagination space for downstream AI applications and computing power networks will only grow. On-chain AI, DePIN computing power, decentralized inference—these narratives are being repeatedly solidified by concrete semiconductor data.
TSMC's financial report proves one thing: AI is not a bubble, it's a money printing machine. The question is, do you have any chips related to it in your hand? #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 $TSM CPI公布了，对照昨天的推演验算一下 昨晚 20:30，9 月 CPI 落地。先把真实数据摆出来，再对照昨天那篇推演逐项验算。 实际值（BLS 官方；预期值采用 CNN 报道口径，另列）： - 总体 CPI：同比 +3.7%（预期 3.6%，前值 3.4%），环比 +0.6% - 核心 CPI：同比 +2.6%（预期 2.5%），环比 +0.3%（预期 0.2%） - 汽油：环比 +9.1%、同比 +34.2%，贡献了超一半的环比涨幅 结论：超预期，而且是核心也超——这就落进了昨天推演的"超预期"情景。 对照验算： 1. BTC 是否如推演承压？是。公布前 BTC 在 $83,860 附近，公布后 5 分钟内跌到 $82,731。Bitwise 的 Matt Hougan 在数据公布后的早期评论中说，他原本以为会跌 3-5%，实际只跌了约 1%——跌幅比一些人预想的温和。 2. 82000 一带支撑有效吗？82000 一带曾被跌破，因此这次不能简单记作"支撑有效"。下次推演需要事先写清：以盘中触及、收盘位置，还是持续时间判断支撑失效。 3. 美债和美元的反应？公布后，美债收益率上行、美Revenue: Most likely flat, with difficulty exceeding expectations.
• The company guides revenue at about $12.86 billion, while the market consensus expectation is about $13.02 billion, approximately 1.2% higher than the guidance.
• Historically, Netflix's actual revenue usually fluctuates within 0.5% of expectations (Q2 was $12.56 billion vs. expected $12.57 billion). If this expectation does not converge toward the guidance, revenue is more likely to slightly underperform.
Concerns:
• Viewing time in the first half of the year grew only about 2%, with growth mainly driven by price increases rather than user engagement.
• Last year's Q3 had a one-time tax expense, causing EPS to be significantly below expectations; such surprises have occurred before Q3.
• Profit margins are affected by the quarterly rhythm of content and marketing expenses.
My view: EPS beats expectations by about 65–70%, revenue beats expectations by about 35–45%.
#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 PONS just said yesterday that the data rebounded, but I see the data has shrunk back a bit today.
Compared to October 12 and October 13, the latest daily platform fees and protocol income decreased by 30.83% and 35.98%, respectively.
With data performing so poorly, why did the coin price rise yesterday? I think it was more driven by news.
Yesterday, there was a rumor that Robinhood is preparing $100 million to support the Robinhood chain, which caused many ecosystem coins to take off. Whether it's true or not, I don't know, but quite a few. Crypto media picked it up again, which indeed stimulated the market a bit.
But to be honest, improving the core data is the key. You can't rely on news every time to drive buying; if it happens too often, the effect diminishes. It's like the story of the boy who cried wolf—it will eventually be exposed.
The effect was so good yesterday that I guess the data on the 14th might improve a bit. The market is too bad now, the overall market is like this, let alone any meme coins. #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ Maji went from a whale to a small fish in ten days, and the cost was too high!
Once a big player in the crypto circle, he was forced to the edge of a cliff by high leverage. Data shows a total loss exceeding $36.57 million, with another $4.43 million lost in the past 7 days, leaving only $279,800 in the account. Currently, he is holding a full position of 2,100 $ETH long, with a position value of 5.07 million, opened at 2,515, actual leverage over 36x, unrealized loss of 200,000, and funding fees accumulated to 1.36 million. The most fatal is the liquidation price at 2,397, with available margin already zero, purely relying on the market to survive.
Combined with the macro pressure of the US September CPI rising to 3.7%, ETH fluctuates with the market. This kind of extreme naked long is like licking blood on the tip of a knife. From whale to small fish in ten days, high leverage amplified greed and accelerated destruction. If a whale ignores position management when bottom fishing, it will also instantly go to zero. Don't blindly trust big players' games; the survival rule is always light positions and risk control. $BTC $ETH $ZEC $57 million outflow in one week, are Dogecoin whales withdrawing or rotating?
Scene of the case: two conflicting clues.
Clue one: In the past week, $DOGE spot capital flow was a net outflow of $57 million, with the price dropping 8.9%, hovering around 0.085. Clue two: Around October 6, reports tracking whale addresses showed cumulative purchases of about $112 million.
One is flowing out, the other flowing in. Who is telling the truth?
With over a decade of auditing experience, my take is: both are true, but they describe different things. The $57 million outflow was scattered and rushed, mostly small to mid-sized positions scared off by the market; the $112 million inflow was slow and steady, usually institutions or whales accumulating in batches at low prices.
This is called "rotation."
"Big cleanup" of chips
In financial markets, the healthiest rallies are rarely one-off; they come with intense volatility and cleansing. When the price hits the key support level of 0.085, panic causes weak holders to surrender their chips. This $57 million outflow is like removing sand from the foundation.
Meanwhile, the $112 million inflow is the cement quietly entering at this low level. Whales are not rushing to push prices up; they need enough space and time to gather sufficient chips. This "low-level absorption" behavior is often more noteworthy than a simple price rise.
0.085: The dividing line between bulls and bears $BTC Big Cake
After CPI data exceeded expectations, rate hike expectations have heated up, which is not very friendly to the market in the short term.
ETF funds also come and go in waves, with no sign of a firm and sustained buying.
Yesterday I said 84400 and 80200 are two liquidity-dense positions within the oscillation range. Since the market chose to go down, the performance at the 80,000 level will be very important.
Once 80,000 is effectively broken, there is basically no decent support below, and it can smoothly reach the 78,000‑75,000 range.
On the upside, there is a huge amount of liquidity stacked at 85,000 and 87,000.
If 80,000 holds and buying returns, market makers will most likely sweep these two positions upward.
In short: the next direction will be decided by 80,000.
$ETH #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？ 溜达鹅今天翻财报，被闪迪的数据惊到了。 2026财年第四季度（截至7月3日），闪迪营收$89.65亿，环比增长51%。GAAP净利润$69亿，稀释每股收益$43.97。Non-GAAP每股收益$39.25。 一个季度赚$69亿净利润，什么概念？相当于每天赚$7,600万。 更夸张的是增长速度。 环比增长51%，其中约1/3来自销量增长，2/3来自价格上涨。也就是说，闪迪不光卖得多了，还卖得贵了——而且客户还在抢着买。 为什么卖得贵还有人抢？因为AI。 AI数据中心建设正在创造对企业级NAND闪存存储的结构性需求。训练一个大模型需要海量数据存储，推理阶段需要更快的存储读取速度。AI模型越大，需要的存储越多。而NAND闪存，就是AI时代的"粮仓"。 闪迪的数据中心业务就是最好的证明。上一季度（Q3），数据中心收入$14.67亿，同比暴增645%。这不是增长，是爆炸。 而且这已经是闪迪连续第三个季度大幅超预期。内存短缺和供应紧张持续，价格一直在涨。客户不是在选哪家便宜，是在抢哪家有货。 闪迪自己对未来的预期更激进。 公司预计NAND市场规模在2027年将达到The kitchen stove fire hasn't been turned off yet, but the ledger is already on the table—168 billion in single-quarter revenue, a sharp 46% quarter-on-quarter increase. This pot of broth is boiling fiercer than any I've seen in my 20 years. But as a five-star veteran chef, I only ask one question: The broth is rich, but have the firewood costs been accounted for?
For the second consecutive quarter, the books have turned from red to green, with a gross margin just over 10% and quarterly cash flow positive. What does this mean in the kitchen? It means a dish has finally been made without losses, and there's still some sauce left at the bottom of the plate. But any cook knows, a 10% gross margin is like balancing on a tightrope: rent, labor, gas—if any of these rise even a dime, this dish instantly turns into a loss.
More glaring is the table turnover rate—its growth rate has slowed compared to the previous quarter. The storefronts are getting bigger, but customers are eating slower, indicating expansion in the front of house but congestion in the kitchen. Signature dishes can hold the scene, but what really eats into profits are the ever-burning high-heat computing power stove, and the two super spicy peppers continuously added: chips and data centers.
The ratio is the killer. Revenue is the main dish, computing power is the firewood in the stove, and chips are the chili peppers. The spicier the chili, the more the main dish’s original flavor is masked. What chefs fear most isn’t customers not coming, but the stove getting bigger and bigger, dishes getting more expensive, and in the end, the whole table’s sales still not enough to pay the gas bill. Several Michelin-starred peers are all fighting for the same batch of truffles, only to find the purchase price is already higher than the menu price—that’s the current state of this pot.
There’s another trick: flavored profits are plated with trimmed edges. The real ingredient loss going into the pot—R&D, depreciation, prepaid long-term contracts—won’t be written into the tasting menu. Making the plating look good is a skill, but customers judge by the spoonful they taste.
That entire set menu, claiming 2 trillion in pricing, invited tasters into private rooms in October, serving a flavored version, not the original. The pinch of salt that presses hardest on the tongue in the original is the ever-increasing computing power cost. Whether this price can hold depends not on how pretty the menu looks, but on this dish being served for three consecutive quarters, with steady table turnover and broth that doesn’t turn bitter.
The walk-in customers at the next table, following the orders, add more as they smell the aroma, and the linked assets’ heat looks strong, but the cooking time is always controlled by someone else’s stove. Before you pick up your chopsticks, first see clearly what’s in your bowl: is it the main dish, the seasoning, or that spoonful of super spicy chili? Eating chili as a meal will burn your stomach through.
This pot knows best: being able to steadily serve a 10% gross margin and sustain table turnover is true skill; relying on piling on firewood to create heat is smoke, not fragrance. #anthropicq3revenue16.8bAortic dissection is silent; the only sign is that the curve on the monitor plummets nearly eight points during trading.
On October 15, the heart of the South Korean market was bleeding on stage. The composite index plunged nearly 8% intraday, with the wound area almost covering the entire anterior wall; Hynix and Samsung, the two main blood supply trunks, simultaneously went into spasm, the defibrillator pads (sidecar mechanism) were applied to the chest for the second time, the current was delivered, but the rhythm could not be restored.
The Nikkei 225 fell 4%, indicating ischemia had crossed the pericardium and spread to adjacent organs, with collateral circulation fully decompensated. The Nasdaq dropped 1.88%, signaling that a distal embolus had finally reached the left ventricle. Meanwhile, U.S. chip stocks declined for the sixth consecutive trading day—note, this is no longer an acute event. Acute ischemia causes pain and alarms; six consecutive days of low perfusion cause no pain, allowing the myocardium to slowly fibrose in silence. By the time you hear it, it’s gallop rhythm.
Hotter inflation data means systemic vascular resistance is up, afterload surges, and every ejection must fight higher pressure. Rising AI financing costs mean extracorporeal circulation perfusion flow is quietly reduced, but the surgery continues and oxygen debt accumulates. Valuation is ventricular wall tension—the higher it is, the more oxygen is consumed; storage price wars are aortic valve regurgitation, blood pushed out flows back in, wasting part of each contraction’s work.
ASML’s equipment orders remain strong, which on imaging equals a coronary angiography report stating “main trunk patent.” But angiography looks at the vessels, ultrasound looks at the pump. Vessels are patent but the pump doesn’t move; the lesion is not in the vessels but in the myocardium itself. What the market is doing now is moving the probe from the vessel wall to the ventricular wall.
TSMC’s earnings are the intraoperative frozen section cut by this scalpel. Only two things need to be distinguished: is it tachycardia—a rate-driven valuation reset, functional and reversible, treatable with medication; or is the myocardium already necrotic—a systemic weakening of chip profit expectations, organic, requiring open-heart bypass surgery. Before the biopsy results come out, any high-dose intervention is a blind puncture, and blind punctures most easily damage the conduction bundle.
The mapping target linked to Nasdaq and the chip chain now acts as the transplanted heart. Once the donor is ischemic, the recipient immediately rejects it; no one waits for pathology reports before starting anti-rejection drugs.
Price crashes are always just symptoms. What truly chills the spine is—the monitor alarm always signals the myocardium that still has electrical activity. #kospidropsnearly8% Money votes with its feet
Three signals from the funding side, none showing any favor. First, the funding rate: on 10/13 it was still +0.0062% long position fee, turned negative on 10/14, and today has slid to -0.0041% — shorts have started to consistently collect rent, the sentiment steering wheel has turned. Second, the position side: today saw a net outflow of 86.91 million USD, total market contract positions shrank back to 7.6 billion; over 7 days, the cumulative net inflow is only about 3 million, all the added positions during the rise were paid back during the fall, meaning a whole week of effort was in vain. Third, the US stock $BTC ETF net outflow in October has exceeded 450 million USD, just last week 679 million USD, about eight thousand units, were withdrawn; the 65.4 million outflow on 10/12 was entirely from IBIT under BlackRock — even BlackRock is pulling out, so bulls still trying to bottom-fish here should first ask who is carrying their sedan chair. Oh, Seller is still shouting on TV that the bear market is over and $BTC will return to 100,000. Shouting calls is free, withdrawing funds is real money, the market has already answered with the K-line. 刚刷到一条动态，看得我有点想笑又有点心酸。 你有没有过那种感觉：手里主流币都绿着，山寨却像被遗忘在角落？ 那位朋友晒了仓位，BTC、ETH都有浮盈，DOGE和PEPE却一路红到底。他自嘲说，垃圾币就当买彩票了，还好仓位不重。这句话其实比亏钱本身更值得琢磨。 市场对垃圾币有一套很顺的逻辑闭环。BTC涨，说资金先喂主流，山寨被抽血，跌是应该的。BTC横，说资金在观望，没人敢动，山寨没承接，跌也正常。BTC跌，说恐慌盘先砸垃圾，山寨跌得更猛，还是正常。听起来每一句都对，但合在一起就变成：无论涨跌横，山寨都找不到属于自己的上涨理由。 这背后其实不是简单的板块轮动，而是情绪定价权的问题。当市场只愿意给BTC和ETH溢价，风险偏好就没有真正扩散出去。资金不是没看到山寨，是看到了也不愿意承担那份不确定性。DOGE和PEPE这类标的，吃的是注意力、情绪和边际买盘，一旦这三样同时收缩，反弹就会变得很轻、很短。 偏多的路径也有：如果BTC稳住并慢慢抬高低点，ETH开始跟上，市场才会重新给山寨一点试错空间。那时候先动的往往不是最垃圾的，而是有社区、有流动性、有叙事的那几个。垃圾币的反弹通常滞后，而且高度依赖The market collectively took a hit, but ZK quietly surged 15 points. How much gold content does V God’s "milk" have?
Today, the entire crypto market is still paying off CPI debts, with total market cap dropping about 3.4%. Bitcoin is gasping around 80,000, yet the top gainer is ZK (ZKsync): it surged from 0.0148 to 0.0185 in 24 hours, a counter-trend +15%, quite a divergence.
The trigger is the new catalyst. V God publicly congratulated the zkSync Airbender team on X today, saying zkEVM’s "speed war has been completely won," and the next focus should be entirely on security. This Airbender Prime achieved 99% proof within 10 seconds on 7,200 mainnet blocks using a single Blackwell GPU, a solid narrative.
My take: this is a typical "technical milestone + leader shout-out" sentiment pulse. A few days ago, the founder proposed a buyback, setting the stage for funds to ride the momentum, which is reasonable. But be clear, its 24-hour trading volume is only a bit over $2 million, market cap under $200 million, RSI at 75, price breaking above the Bollinger upper band, a small cap that’s easy to pump and dump. Such volume chasing high prices has very low tolerance for error.
Watch two signals: whether it can hold above the 0.018 upper band with volume instead of pulling back after a spike; and whether the ZK ecosystem has follow-up verification progress after "shifting to security," since hype from a single tweet rarely lasts long. DYOR, not investment advice.
#ZK #ZKsync #Layer2$ETH CPI data released, overall inflation exceeded expectations, core inflation rose simultaneously, and the Fed's excuse of "only relying on energy price increases" was completely torn apart. The market responded with a sharp drop; what should we expect next?
After the data came out, Bitcoin $BTC directly fell below 82,000. ETF funds were already flowing out, and now with tightening macro expectations, buyers dare not enter. If 80,000 doesn't hold today, the next support is 78,000.
Ethereum $ETH is the worst hit; it was already the weakest among the three. ETF continues to bleed, staking yields can't keep up with U.S. Treasuries, and institutions are not stepping in at the bottom. When Bitcoin weakens, it falls the hardest, and today it continued to decline, likely hard to stabilize in the short term.
Gold $XAUT also plunged, spot gold dropped nearly 2%. Core inflation exceeding expectations pushed up real interest rates, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields rose together, and non-yielding gold can only take a hit in the short term. But gold quickly rebounded today because ETF allocation inflows continue, and central banks have not stopped.
The biggest difference between it and Bitcoin is that Bitcoin's buyers are on-chain whales, while gold's buyers are central banks and sovereign funds. The latter's capital attributes and patience are on a completely different level. Hold your Bitcoin and Ethereum spot positions firmly, unload all short-term leverage. Gold is under short-term pressure but fundamentally stronger than Bitcoin. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #USCPI exceeds expectations, rising to 3.7%, PPI test coming tonight #TSMC Q3 revenue hits record high, profit performance to be revealed 💸Capital Confession: Who's Really Buying, Who's Just Pretending to Be Excited?
$BTC: Contract net inflow in 24h is 194 million, spot +44.7 million, short-term both green. But don't rush to pop the champagne—weekly -2.8 billion, monthly -5.3 billion, 12h still -102 million. This 194 million is just a recent rebound in the last few hours, more like an oversold bounce test, not a reversal signal. 🩹
$ETH: Scene of schizophrenia. Contract +57.55 million, spot -110 million. Leveraged traders are betting on a rebound, holders keep running. Both sides fighting, big money has no consensus. If spot keeps selling, contracts will eventually be dragged down. ⚔️
$SOL: Contract -16.2k, basically flat; spot +33.39 million. Someone is quietly accumulating, no one dares to leverage. Weekly spot +20.06 million, the only mainstream to turn positive. Dollar-cost averaging logic > contract speculation. 🌱
Summary: BTC tests inflow, ETH longs and shorts clash, SOL spot quietly buys. Three ailments, one common point—weekly and monthly are still bleeding, big money remains cautious. Although BTC is strong, the funds are just testing the waters, not going all in. 🚨
Conclusion: You can watch the rebound, but don't rush to call a reversal. Money is testing the temperature, not jumping into the pool. 🧊#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 TSMC's Q3 revenue hit a record high of 1.49 trillion New Taiwan Dollars, a year-on-year surge of 50%, setting a historic peak. The full earnings report and briefing at 14:00 today will focus mainly on profit and gross margin.
But don't just focus on TSMC; this AI chip frenzy is actually tightly linked with our crypto circle.
Recently, when semiconductors sneeze, Bitcoin catches a cold. Micron and SK Hynix fell, BTC slid directly from 83,000 to 81,600, and ETH dropped nearly 4%. Simply put, the money behind AI hype and crypto trading is the same group—when risk appetite tightens, tech stocks and crypto assets get hammered together.
TSMC's guidance tonight is essentially a "thermometer" for AI market sentiment. If the gross margin hits the 67% ceiling, it means computing demand is still burning hot, signaling a warm sentiment for crypto; conversely, if the guidance is conservative, funds may continue to withdraw from high-risk assets.
Keep an eye on 14:00; TSMC's earnings briefing could be the prelude to tonight's BTC direction choice. $BTC $xTSEM #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 TSMC delivers an impressive "half-sheet answer": Q3 revenue approximately NT$1.494 trillion, a year-on-year surge of 50.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.6%, setting a new single-quarter record; September monthly revenue reached NT$511.857 billion, soaring 54.6% year-on-year. The numbers are explosive, but this is on the revenue side; profit figures will be revealed at the October 15 earnings call.
The record revenue is understandable, fundamentally driven by three combined forces: Nvidia, AMD, and other AI chips fully occupying advanced process capacity, with CoWoS packaging still a bottleneck; Apple's new A/M series supporting the high-end consumer segment; and 2nm moving from trial production to mass production, starting to contribute to revenue. In short, customers are not bargaining over price but competing for capacity.
However, profitability is the real test. The company’s own Q3 gross margin guidance is only 65%–67%, lower than Q2’s 67.7%. The reason is straightforward: early depreciation and yield costs during 2nm ramp-up dilute margins by about 3–4 percentage points; overseas plants in the US and Japan have higher costs, diluting margins by 2–4 percentage points long-term. So the market is really watching three numbers: whether the gross margin can hold at 65%, whether Q4 guidance will increase quarter-on-quarter, and the capital expenditure outlook for 2027.Today's breadth data is painful: Among 283 coins in USDT perpetual contracts, only 19 are rising, with a median of -7.32%. $BTC fell 2.74%, seemingly "resistant to falling," but actually just falling slower, not not falling.
My three actions today:
1. No adding positions. In a market with a median of -7%, "falling means cheap" is the most expensive phrase.
2. Cut leveraged positions first. Leverage amplifies the median decline; -7% multiplied by leverage is not a correction, it's an accident.
3. Watch ETH, not BTC. ETH fell 5.43%, SOL fell 3.98%—if the decline continues, altcoins and the main market have a sequence; the main market is just lagging.
The lesson is not that the market must fall, but that "holding" and "being held" are two different things in a down market. I don't hate losing money; I hate not having control over my positions.
On days like today with a median of -7%, whose position will you cut first? Hold BTC, or watch the ETH in your hand first? $BTC $SLX
Not optimistic, not optimistic at all!
The institution incubating this project is about to enter liquidation, so what's the point of playing this game.
Solstice (the project issuing the SLX token) was incubated by **Deus X Capital**.
Deus X Capital founded Solstice Labs in 2024 and provided it with funding and resource support; it is one of the projects incubated under its umbrella.
Currently, this institution has announced it will shut down and enter liquidation (planned to complete by January 2027), but the SLX project itself was still incubated by it.
---
What this institution does:
Deus X Capital is a crypto and fintech investment company supported by a family office, classified as an institutional investor. It was established in 2023, manages about $1 billion in assets, and its main businesses include investment, project incubation, and related operations. It is considered a relatively legitimate professional institution in the crypto field.There are some reasons to hold, so let's ask again.
If the reason to buy $PEPE is to wait for sentiment to return, I think we should admit that our judgment is about market attention.
You can't say it's popular when it doesn't rise, then suddenly change your tune when it falls, claiming to hold it as a long-term project.
I'm more concerned about whether trading can remain active after the hype dies down.
If more and more people discuss it but the price still can't push up, don't rush to explain it as having more room ahead. After all, there is real money between attention and buying.
For $SUI, I watch out for an illusion: just because the project is progressing well, people think they don't need to watch the supply during the holding period.
It has a total cap of 10 billion tokens, but tokens are still released gradually as planned, so the circulating supply will change.
This doesn't mean release will definitely cause a drop, but with the same demand, the tradable quantity might differ.
Believing in the ecosystem is one thing; deciding at what valuation to buy is another matter to consider separately.
For $AVAX, you have to be careful not to mistake staking rewards as price protection.
Its staking rewards come from new issuance, while network fees have a separate burn mechanism.
The number of coins increases, but the account value can still decline.
So I won't ignore whether the original buying reasons have changed just because it can generate yield. Rewards can be counted as income but can't answer why you still want to hold.CPI data has been released, overall inflation exceeded expectations, and core inflation rose simultaneously. The Fed's excuse of "only relying on energy price increases" has been completely torn apart. The market responded with a sharp drop; what should we expect next?
After the data came out, Bitcoin $BTC directly fell below 82,000. ETF funds were already flowing out, and now with tighter macro expectations, buyers dare not enter. If 80,000 doesn't hold today, the next support is 78,000.
Ethereum $ETH is the worst hit; it was already the weakest among the three. ETF continues to bleed, staking yields can't compete with U.S. Treasuries, and institutions are not stepping in at the bottom. When Bitcoin weakens, it falls the hardest. It continues to decline today, and it is estimated to be difficult to stabilize in the short term.
Gold $XAUt also fell sharply, with spot gold dropping nearly 2%. Core inflation exceeding expectations pushed up real interest rates, and both the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields rose together. Non-yielding gold can only take a hit in the short term. But gold quickly rebounded today because ETF allocation funds are still flowing in, and central banks have not stopped.
The biggest difference between it and Bitcoin is that Bitcoin's buyers are on-chain whales, while gold's buyers are central banks and sovereign funds. The capital attributes and patience of the latter are on a completely different level. Hold your Bitcoin and Ethereum spot positions firmly, and unload all short-term leverage. Gold is under short-term pressure but fundamentally stronger than Bitcoin. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 The US dollar surged. Bitcoin was dumped. The bet on rate hikes doubled.
September CPI is 3.7%, August was only 3.4%. Core is 2.6%, August was only 2.4%.
Both numbers are higher than expected.
The biggest increase was in gasoline, 9.1%. One person bears half the increase.
The first thing to break is not the coin.
It's the idea that "Bitcoin is only for risk speculation."
When I saw the gasoline number, my first reaction was to rush to fill up.
Then I found it was even more expensive than last week.
People are like that.
Alright, back to the main topic.
The Federal Reserve already raised rates by 25 basis points on September 16, now at 3.75%–4.00%.
Will there be another one? The next meeting is October 27–28.
Before the CPI, the market was betting about 20% chance of a hike. When the data came out, it became 47%.
In one trading session, it doubled.
The two-year US Treasury yield is 4.872%, up 7 basis points that day. The dollar also rose.
Look clearly:
Bitcoin pays no interest.
The two-year US Treasury pays you 4.87%.
That's all there is to it.
Now comes the hardest part.
I have a bit of a bias, this round of decline is not the coin's fault at all, it's that everyone suddenly remembered interest rates.
So I wrote two consecutive articles about interest rates yesterday, because this is the key focus now.
A few days ago, those shouting "next stop 100,000" have all gone silent these past two days.
And people who usually don't follow financial news opened accounts for the first time this week, first checked deposit rates, and then never came back. #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 TSMC's Q3 revenue hit a record high, mainly benefiting from the AI chip foundry boom. However, the market is more focused on profit quality: the ramp-up of new processes and overseas factory construction have increased costs, raising doubts about whether the gross margin can hold at 65%-67% and if profits can keep pace with revenue. Earlier AI expectations have been fully priced in, so funds chose to cash out before the earnings report was released, leading to a stock price pullback. #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 #TSMCOct15Earnings
TSMC's revenue record before October 15 had already been absorbed by the market. If we wait until the financial report day to see it as a positive surprise, the investment rhythm may have been delayed.
On October 8, the company had already announced September revenue data: a 54.6% year-on-year increase and a slight 0.6% month-on-month decrease. This variance carries deep significance — the strong long-term growth trend does not necessarily mean that every month must set a new record compared to the previous month. Minor monthly fluctuations are not enough to shake the big narrative of AI demand The market opened broadly in the red this morning 😵. The higher-than-expected CPI data caused a general pullback in the Crypto market. It's clear that it's being lumped into the same risk valuation framework as AI stocks. Sectors like RWA have dropped more than 6%. Ajian believes that what the market cares about now isn't $BTC or $ETH or any particular token, but rather interest rates, financing costs, and whether overvalued assets can hold up.
I've also emphasized before that in the current high-interest-rate economic environment, crypto asset valuations are walking a tightrope and are especially sensitive to market sentiment. Short-term funds love to target these kinds of assets first. If the token you hold long-term doesn't have enough income support, it's risky in this environment. #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 The Dow Jones fell 0.09%, almost unchanged; the Nasdaq dropped 1.88%. Two worlds in the same trading day.
Putting these two numbers together makes it clear: money hasn't left the US stock market; it has shifted from tech stocks to healthcare and consumer staples. The information technology sector fell 3% in a single day, while healthcare actually rose 2.4%. Eli Lilly and Merck rose by three to four points, a typical defensive rotation.
The root cause is still oil. In the past ten days or so, attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz have clearly increased. On October 11, daily crude oil passing through the strait was only about 2.9 million barrels, compared to over 20 million barrels a few days ago. Brent crude once stood above $106, gasoline prices rose more than 30% year-over-year, and the September CPI was 3.7% year-over-year, higher than expected. The 10-year US Treasury yield surged above 5.2%, the 2-year yield approached 4.9%, and New York Fed's Williams also said it makes sense to raise rates once more this year.
The most expensive assets fear this combination the most. Nvidia fell 3.2%, Meta dropped 3.3%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell more than 10% in five days, and CoreWeave dropped 15% in one day.
I tend to believe that as long as oil prices remain above $100, any rebound in tech stocks can only be seen as a rebound. Today, we first look at TSMC's earnings report. If the AI demand story is strong enough, semiconductors may get a breather; if not, this round of adjustment may not be over yet. After that, the FOMC meeting on October 27-28 awaits.
The xdm tech position can be held for now, adding on dips. In this kind of market, less fuss is better. The midterm elections are approaching, and major turning points may come for the US-Iran and Russia-Ukraine conflicts#沙特阿美总部遇袭，原油供应受关注 This CPI move has dashed the previous optimistic expectations of "peak rate hikes." #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验
In the short term, the macro trend is pulling downward. Rising rate hike expectations, increasing US Treasury yields, and a stronger dollar mean risk assets are generally struggling. BTC will not strengthen independently.
But in the medium term, there is long-term capital buying around 80,000. The ETF's single-day counter-trend inflow of 167 million is no lie. It shows that someone is willing to support at this level.
At this stage, the biggest taboo is trying to guess the bottom. Whether 80,000 can hold depends on upcoming PPI data and the FOMC meeting. Before the direction is clear, position sizing is more important than judgment. #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点
Three key variables truly determine the ceiling of the advertising business
1. Whether advertising ARPU can catch up with subscription ARPU
Currently, the per-user revenue of the ad-supported plan is still lower than that of the ad-free plan. The gap may only narrow if advertiser budgets, programmatic buying, and live CPM increase.
2. Whether live and highly engaging content can be continuously supplied
Live content like NFL, WWE, MLB has higher ad monetization efficiency and can boost user activity, but it is costly and concentrated in scheduling, requiring proof of sustainability.
3. Whether AI advertising systems can improve delivery efficiency
Netflix is advancing AI-driven ad planning, creative adaptation, audience insights, and data clean rooms, which relates to whether advertisers are willing to increase budgets long-term.
Investment judgment
Netflix's advertising business is worth monitoring, but one should not focus solely on the slogan of “ad revenue doubling.” More importantly, watch the ad plan ARPU, advertiser retention, live ad fill rate, programmatic share, and whether profit margins are diluted by content costs.
If these indicators improve, the ad business will shift from a “story” to “cash flow”; if improvements fall short of expectations, it will only continue to support valuation rather than become a performance inflection point. With the release of this CPI data, many people have actually realized that the previously repeated market narrative of "inflation easing, rate cuts by year-end" is not so certain.
Everyone had assumed that the Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle was already over, so assets without interest like $BTC and $ETH could maintain their valuations in a high interest rate environment.
However, this time both CPI and core inflation exceeded expectations, which directly overturned that premise—the US Treasury yields surged, and now even holding risk-free US Treasuries can yield over 5%, so institutions naturally don't want to stay in volatile, cash-flow-free crypto; the continuous net outflows from ETFs are the most concrete evidence.
The chain of liquidations only accelerated the decline speed a bit; the real problem is that most of the current buyers are still old whales in the crypto space doing short-term trades, who won't hold for more than a few months before leaving.
In contrast, gold fell but quickly rebounded, supported by long-term allocations from central banks and sovereign wealth funds; they don't gamble on whether rates will rise next month. This kind of capital resilience is something the crypto space simply can't match right now.
Investment involves risks, and decisions should be made cautiously. The above analysis is only a market viewpoint sharing and does not constitute any investment advice.
#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验