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At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the September CPI across the board exceeded expectations: overall year-on-year 3.7%, core year-on-year 2.6%, core month-on-month stuck at 0.3% for two consecutive months. Normally, this is a classic bearish combination: S&P futures turned down, 10-year US Treasury yield jumped to 5.29%, 2-year yield rose 13 basis points to 4.92%, and the probability of a rate hike in October was pushed to around 50%. But $BTC's reaction was: sliding from around 84,000 to about 82,400, only down about 1% in 24 hours. $ETH was the same, at $2,464, down 1.5%, not even touching key levels.
What does this mean? It means the truly “hawkish” part was already fully priced in this morning. I wrote earlier in the morning that the market had preemptively realized the hawkish expectations: continuous ETF outflows, yields taking off early, prices suppressed below 84,000. So after the data release, what the market punished was not the “inflation exceeding expectations” news itself, but rather clearing out the remaining bit of hope. When bad news is priced in without a crash, it is often one of the strongest short-term signals; at least the bears did not dare to launch a second wave at this time.
But don’t rush to call a reversal. After tonight, the game changes. Before CPI, the market traded on “what the data is,” after CPI, it trades on “what the Fed will do.” Core month-on-month at 0.3% for two consecutive months means inflation stickiness is confirmed, and the October rate hike is back on the table. This is the real situation for $BTC now$XAU Gold at 4090, what are you still hesitating about?
Doubting the bulls just because gold is pulling back? I can only say that when it rallies again, many will complain it's too expensive.
My view has always been clear: bullish on gold in the medium to long term, and short-term pullbacks are actually worth paying attention to.
Gold has been hard currency since ancient times, with global central banks continuously allocating gold, and ETF funds also reflecting the market's demand for gold allocation. But short-term trends can't be judged solely by safe-haven logic; U.S. inflation, the dollar's movement, and Fed rate expectations remain key factors influencing gold prices.
Currently, gold has fallen back to around $4090. Data-driven volatility does increase short-term uncertainty. But if support holds after the pullback and buyers return, this could actually offer a better opportunity to position.
I like this kind of trending market—no need for daily surges, as long as the big picture doesn't change, just patiently wait for opportunities. In terms of trading, consider scaling in gradually, don't blindly chase highs, and don't easily turn bearish just because of a temporary pullback.
As for $5000, I still hold expectations. But a target is a target, and trading is trading—don't treat optimism as a guaranteed rise, nor use long-term logic as a reason to hold through short-term losses. Keep your position steady to wait for the trend to truly emerge. #沙特阿美总部遇袭，原油供应受关注 Put/call skew flattens: institutions aren't chasing upside, they're buying $78K–$80K puts as insurance. Spot holds, hedges on. That's a range market with a tail — not a blow-off top.$FIL needs close attention these days! The halving cycle is coming soon. Although the expectation has already been reflected in the market and it has doubled in the past two months, there may still be intense volatility after the halving starts, and even a major crash might occur. In my view, the halving of production and the team's lock-up are definitely long-term positives, because from the start of the halving, market selling pressure will decrease by 75% year-over-year compared to now. Although buying and selling will still tug back and forth, the logic has shifted from selling pressure exceeding buying pressure to being evenly matched or buying pressure possibly overwhelming selling pressure after some positive news! What I really worry about now is that spot holders who previously bought at costs of tens or even hundreds will take advantage of this positive news to sell, which is definitely unfavorable for the current market, but this is all short-term. Personally, I plan to go long on $FIL for the long term, so short-term volatility won't affect me! Compared to the previous pre-market data, the decline in individual storage stocks has slightly narrowed. SK Hynix and SanDisk SNDK's downward momentum has slowed, Micron is basically flat, and panic selling in the early session has eased somewhat. However, AI computing power leaders collectively turned from red to green, with Nvidia and Meta weakening, and only a few stocks closing higher. The buying momentum in the tech sector has clearly weakened.
The Asia-Pacific market's storage sector saw a brief recovery, but overseas storage stocks failed to turn positive, only narrowing their losses rather than reversing the trend. This is merely a stop-loss battle after an oversell.
Transmitted to the A-shares market, the slowdown in overseas storage declines can alleviate the pressure of a sharp drop in the storage sector tomorrow. However, major companies remain generally weak, making a strong rebound difficult. Any rally is likely to face profit-taking. Meanwhile, the weakness of Nvidia and Meta suppresses sentiment in domestic computing power and media sectors, and Lumentum's decline also drags down expectations for optical modules.
Regarding $SNDK, it is currently only a brief pause in the downtrend, with insufficient bullish strength. Rebounds can be used as opportunities to position short orders, maintaining a weak outlook in the short term.
⚠️ Market views shared only, not investment advice The moment I woke up, the string of numbers on my phone screen seemed to have a corner quietly erased by someone✨ Floating profit dropped by three hundred thousand US dollars, how would you handle the direction in your hands? Last night's market was actually very representative. ETH was repeatedly tugged above 2500; many took it as a signal that "finally it's time to go long," but what I saw was a repeatedly tested distribution range. The point in this trader's record that struck me the most was not how much floating profit he lost, but that he clearly said: the short position at BTC 83491 was the one with the highest floating profit and is still held now. The amount of information behind this sentence is much greater than it appears on the surface. First, look at the facts. ETH 2500 was repeatedly mentioned as a short point, and the price did indeed hover around this level. BTC had a rebound near 83491 but overall did not break out of the resistance zone. Altcoins fell more directly, with both short positions hitting full profit margins. ZEC was singled out for observation due to its high volatility. Putting these details together, it looks more like a trend entering a divergence phase rather than a clean start or continuation. What is the market trading? I think the core is event repricing. With CPI about to be released, Hamarck again signaling further rate hikes, semiconductor sector sell-offs, and South Korea's KOSPI dropping over 6%, these external signals combined are suppressing risk appetite. The rebounds in BTC and ETH seem more like short covering and short-term sentiment repair rather than new funds willing to continuously take over at this level. In other words SNDK at $1420, do you dare to bottom-fish?
Falling from 2354 to 1400, everyone is shouting "AI storage bubble burst," but just now, Binance perpetual futures bounced back from 1401 to 1420, and the funding rate is still positive—so is this a bear trap by the manipulators using bad news to shake out weak hands, or is the AI storage bubble really about to burst?
Let's look at the surface first: it's bad, really bad.
Retracted 40% from the June ATH of 2354, with a continuous downtrend recently, hitting a low of 1401 on October 13. Broadcom's CEO's comment crashed the entire semiconductor sector, China's CXMT progress scared the market, and worries about flash memory price volatility are everywhere.
But look at the chart—1400 hasn't been broken, the underlying stock closed yesterday pulling back to the 1480s. This morning pre-market is back to 1420-1440. The candlesticks tell you: 1400 is a tested iron bottom recently, volume hasn't spiked extremely during the decline, and the oversold zone has been reached. All signals are shouting one thing: this is an emotion-driven pullback, not a fundamental collapse.
First thing: Did Broadcom's CEO's comment really scare the market that much?
Broadcom's CEO said AI financing has constraints, the entire SOX sector pulled back, and SNDK got hit along with it.
Sounds scary? But think about it—has AI capital expenditure really stopped? Cloud providers and AI labs are still frantically building data centers, NAND/SSD is the most critical supporting component after GPUs. Multiple institutions maintain expectations of tight NAND supply and demand in 2026, supporting prices.
What is a false sell-off? This is it. Sector sentiment dragged good companies down together. Retail investors panic that the "AI bubble burst," while smart money quietly buys near 1400.
Second thing: China's CXMT competition? Long-term shadow, short-term noise.
CXMT's progress indeed triggered short-term panic about high-end storage competition. But look at SNDK's fundamentals:
Pure NAND flash player, vertically integrated with Kioxia
TTM revenue about $20 billion, EPS about 74, volume and price both rising
Current TTM PE about 20, forward PE only around 7
Market cap 210 billion, analyst consensus "buy," average target price 2173
Current price 1420, target price 2173, a 50% gap in between. You tell me this is a bubble?
Compare: Nvidia's forward PE? 30x. SNDK only 7x. This is not a bubble, this is a discount.
Third thing: A technical signal that must be taken seriously has appeared.
Retracted 40% from ATH, YTD still up over 500%, 1-year up over 1000%. This is a typical normal pullback after a surge, not a trend reversal.
Support: 1400 (iron bottom, multiple tests) → 1350 (extreme case)
Resistance: 1480-1500 (previous close + round number) → 1600 → 1700
Catalyst: Earnings report after market close on October 29, market expects EPS about 46
Daily/4H charts are weak, short-term moving averages are resistance, but after a large pullback, it has entered oversold territory, a technical rebound is imminent. Funding rate is positive (8-hour 0.02-0.04%), indicating bulls still want to hold positions.
But remember—perpetual futures have leverage, volatility will be amplified. If 1400 breaks down with volume, the next target is 1350 or even lower.
Bull vs. bear, you decide:
On one side:
AI data center NAND demand continues to explode
Analyst average target price 2173, 50% upside
Forward PE only 7x, valuation is cheap
1400 iron bottom tested multiple times, oversold rebound imminent
October 29 earnings catalyst approaching
On the other side:
Broadcom's comments triggered concerns about AI spending sustainability
China's CXMT long-term competition shadow
Semiconductor sector overall technical correction
Short-term moving averages bearish, sentiment fragile
If 1400 breaks, it may trigger bull stop-losses
Key level 1420, only $20 above the death line 1400.
Resistance above: 1480-1500 → 1600 → 1700 → analyst target 2173
Support below: 1400 (iron bottom) → 1350 → 1000 (extreme)
Trading strategy
Short-term traders:
Light long positions near 1400 if it stabilizes (watch for volume rebound or lower shadow), stop loss 1350-1380. First target 1480-1520, then reduce or switch to defense. If it breaks 1400 and can't recover, wait or lightly short. Funding rate positive, suitable for short swings, don't hold stubbornly.
Mid-term players:
Build long positions in batches between 1400-1450, target 1600-1800 (expectation heating before earnings). Control position before earnings or hedge with options/small leverage. Buying on pullbacks is better than chasing highs, much better value than June highs.
Risk control rules:
High Beta + perpetual futures, single trade risk no more than 1-2% of account
Total position not too heavy, keep enough cash
Watch underlying stock intraday moves, NAND price data, MU and other storage stock correlations
If earnings miss expectations or NAND guidance weakens, another sell-off possible
SNDK now is like Nvidia in 2023—
After a surge, a 40% pullback, everyone shouts "bubble burst," but earnings come out and it doubles.
You fear the pullback, others fear missing the ride.
If you don't dare to buy at 1400, will you chase at 2000 after earnings?
$BTC $NVDA $SNDK $BTC 数据出来先砸了近一千刀，现在 82,700 附近晃。北京时间今晚 20:30，美国 9 月 CPI 落地：整体同比 3.7%、环比 0.6%，基本在预期里——9 月汽油大涨，头条难看是个人都知道。真正的伤在核心：环比 0.3%，跟 8 月一模一样，市场预期的是降到 0.2%；同比也升到 2.6%。
整体看的是油价，核心看的是粘性。核心连续两个月不下来，说明 9 月那次加息只是个开头——10 月 27-28 日美联储开会前这是最后一块拼图，今晚之前市场押的是"10 月不动、12 月再加"，现在 10 月这张牌又回到了桌上。10 年期美债收益率瞬间被拉到 5.31%，这才是压死风险资产的真东西：跌的不是 CPI 本身，是加息预期的重新定价。
说人话：$BTC 这两天在 81,000–82,500 反复被测，今晚就是试金石。守住，说明数据夜的空头力道也就到这儿，多头还能看 84,000 一线的反弹窗口；破了往 80,000 去，弱的先被带走——$ETH 24h 跌 0.95%、跑输大饼的 0.59%，山寨只会比大饼难受得多。明天 PPI 落地前，这行情不属于抄底侠，右侧有的是位Today, my watchlist is mostly green, but the whales are playing three completely different games:
$BTC is real spot trading with genuine exchanges. Coinbase premium has turned negative, institutions are selling at a discount; however, on-chain over 30,000 coins have been withdrawn this month, and whales are quietly accumulating again. This kind of tug-of-war often signals a market shift; once the chips are exchanged, a new direction emerges.
HYPE is purely a contract battlefield, with almost no spot trading. On Hyperliquid, short positions net $225 million, with an account shorting since last September still holding on despite a $23 million unrealized loss. No matter how much it rallies, it’s just hot air; without spot support, it can crash anytime.
OKB has fundamentals and a story, but sentiment hasn’t picked up, RSI is only 41, so it’s just following the market’s slow decline. However, there is capital absorbing around 125, indicating big players are betting on its transformation from a platform token to a stock settlement infrastructure. Whales are most likely either holding long-term or gambling on the next wave of sentiment-driven speculation.
Three scripts, three rhythms—don’t use the same position strategy for all.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 CPI exceeds expectations, core inflation does not cool down: Will the October rate hike be brought forward?
The data is out and leans hawkish. US September CPI: overall year-on-year 3.7% (expected 3.6%), month-on-month 0.6% as expected; but the Fed's key focus, core month-on-month 0.3% (expected 0.2%), core year-on-year 2.6% (expected 2.5%) — both core figures exceed expectations, cooling off failed.
Market reacted quickly: 10-year US Treasury yield broke through 5.3%, consensus on no rate hike in October begins to loosen, bets on another hike in December continue to heat up. BTC dropped about $1,000 in response, now around $82,400. Oil prices are the main culprit pushing the overall up (gasoline +9.1% monthly), but the core not cooling down is the real trouble for the Fed.
Next to watch is the FOMC on October 27-28. Core month-on-month has been 0.3% for two consecutive months, leaving less room to "wait and see." For the crypto space, a stronger dollar and US Treasury yields are direct headwinds — don’t rush to bottom-fish tonight, let the dust settle a bit.
Risk warning: Macro data fluctuates sharply before and after release, participate cautiously. For reference only, not investment advice.
#BTCBerkshire adds $330 million, Bending Spoons surges 32% pre-market, what's the story behind this "App Harvester" favored by Buffett?
Market overview: OKX xBSP pre-market quote at 47.72, 24h up 25%, surged past 49.51 then pulled back; trading volume 14.23 million USDT, turnover rate only 0.13%, low-liquidity pre-market token, a few million U can easily push out a big bullish candle.
Strong catalyst: Berkshire added $330 million investment, private placement of 10 million shares at $33 each; combined with $600 million invested at IPO, Buffett has bet nearly $1 billion in two rounds. Bending Spoons is an Italian app group, having acquired Evernote and Meetup, also acquiring Miro and Airtable, Q2 earnings per share $0.46 beating expectations, revenue $704 million beating expectations.
But to pour cold water: P/E ratio 266, RSI 99, pre-market surge to 49.51 has already overextended; placement price $33 is Buffett's cost line, current price 47.72 is 40% higher than big money's cost — big names backing it is a real signal, but chasing high premiums requires caution. Pre-market low liquidity means volatility will only increase after official open.
Watch the psychological anchor at the $33 placement price, if it breaks the support at 46.16; at US market open, see if BSP can hold steady, only then can we talk about a second wave. DYOR, not investment advice.
#BSP #Berkshire #USStockTokenUS September CPI broadly exceeded expectations, posing a macro downside risk to Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Macro logic: Inflation has risen for three consecutive months, core inflation remains stubborn, the Fed's rate cut expectations are forced to be delayed, and the high interest rate environment continues to suppress crypto asset valuations. Before the data release, BTC was fluctuating around $83,000, ETH was weaker, having dropped nearly 10% over the past week.
BTC key levels: There is strong support from the 400-day moving average around $81,000 below, and $77,000 to $79,000 is the next major absorption zone. $83,300 above is an important watershed; holding above it could lead to a challenge of $85,000 to $86,500. If core CPI exceeds expectations, BTC may first test below $80,000 or even $81,000.
ETH key levels: $2,500 is the lifeline—both a round number and the resistance level before the September breakout; a daily close below it would damage the upward structure. Strong support below is near $2,400, which has successfully reversed price multiple times.
Strategy advice: Slippage is very high at the moment of data release; avoid one-sided bets. It is advisable to wait for the data to settle, observe the high point of the first 15-minute candle as a trend confirmation signal, then look for entry opportunities. $ETH $BTC Circulating supply is only 23.3%: Behind HYPE's 78.1 billion valuation, how many people haven't entered yet?
Looking at $HYPE's valuation, just looking at market cap can be misleading. Current data: circulating supply is about 222.46 million tokens, total supply about 955.31 million tokens, with a circulation ratio of only 23.3%. Current market cap is about $18.21 billion, fully diluted valuation about $78.19 billion — the latter is 4.29 times the former. To put it simply: only a small fraction is trading on the market now, more than three-quarters of the tokens haven't been released yet. Low circulation ratio has two sides. On the positive side, the float is light, so when demand comes, price elasticity is high; on the negative side, future supply release is a looming variable, and when tokens are released, the market needs enough support to absorb them.
So I don't simply take low circulation as a bullish sign. What really matters are two things: whether demand growth can outpace supply release, and whether buybacks and burns can absorb some of the pressure. Platform revenue is there, which is the confidence on the demand side. Valuation is a race between demand and supply, and I’m betting on demand. Diamond hands.The $BTC wick timing is very interesting: 20:30 Beijing time, which converts to 08:30 Eastern Time, exactly one hour before the US stock market opens.
Characteristics of this time period: Asian session is ending, European session is quiet, US stock market hasn't opened yet, order books are thinnest, and big money loves to sweep losses during this window.
The wick was immediately pulled back, what does this indicate? It means there is real buying interest waiting below at 82,700; it's not that no one is taking the orders, but someone is waiting to catch them.
Technical aspect: BTC surged to 84,147 yesterday but failed to hold; bullish momentum is weakening and a pullback to confirm support is needed. This wick is that pullback, just a bit more violent in form.
Conclusion: 82,700 is a valid support level, expect continued range-bound oscillation. ETH leading the decline is a warning, keep an eye on ETH stabilizing.$KORU
I am currently clearly bearish. Looking ahead to the close of the US stock market on Friday, the priority target is 13.58; if it breaks below that, then 13.12, and in extreme scenarios, 12.70.
Today, US CPI exceeded expectations, and KORU quickly dropped from around 14.40 to 13.64. I believe this decline is not just a simple shakeout but the market beginning to reprice.
Actually, the Korean market had already signaled this. The KOSPI rose over 2% in early trading but ended up closing lower, with foreign investors selling about 1.18 trillion KRW in a single day. ASML’s long-term outlook remains good, but Samsung and Hynix still lack sustained buying.
I think the issue is not with AI fundamentals now, but that the market had previously priced in too much growth for the next few years. Positive news has been realized with no buyers, inflation exceeded expectations, so capital naturally starts to withdraw.
Next, I mainly watch two paths:
Main path: 13.73 → 13.58 → 13.12 → 12.70.
Alternate path: 13.73 → 14.00–14.25 → 13.58 → 13.12.
TSMC’s earnings report on Thursday is a key variable, but I don’t currently believe a good earnings report alone can reverse the capital outflow trend.
Above 14.90 is where I would reassess the bearish logic.
I won’t chase shorts around 13.73 now; I prefer to wait for a rebound to provide an opportunity. What I’m watching is the second wave of decline after the withdrawal of capital from Korean semiconductors, not just betting on a single bearish candle.A few days ago, I bought $AGPU. I just saw that AGPU officially announced a partnership with the Nasdaq-listed company Penguin. Before this, it was listed on Binance's bstocks. Actually, I had been paying attention earlier, but it was inconvenient to buy before it was listed on Binance. After it was listed, I still hesitated for a while, actually waiting for a better entry point. Since I didn't get that, I just bought it directly, so now I'm stuck.
I want to recharge my faith with two reasons why it's worth holding.
First, the company changed its business in 2025 to AI infrastructure/GPU computing power services, which aligns with current trends.
Second, the market cap is very low. Although a low market cap alone isn't a reason to buy a stock, this is not just about a low market cap; after the transformation, it already has 3.4 billion in contract orders. However, these contracts represent revenue to be delivered and recognized over many years. Today's official announcement of cooperation with $PENG can increase the certainty of turning these orders into revenue, because AGPU is responsible for where the orders come from, while $PENG is responsible for subsequent delivery and operations. Being able to convert orders into revenue together in the future is very strong.After some thought, the current market's continuous decline is not due to a single event, but rather the combined effect of forces on three levels.
On the macro level, the Federal Reserve has sent hawkish signals. The September meeting minutes showed that most officials support continuing rate hikes, dashing the market's original expectation of an "end to rate hikes." U.S. Treasury yields surged accordingly, causing funds to withdraw from high-risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum that do not generate interest.
On the capital level, ETFs and institutions are continuously retreating. The Ethereum spot ETF has seen net outflows for nine consecutive trading days, with cumulative outflows exceeding $630 million since October. More critically, BitMine has explicitly capped its ETH holdings at 5% of the total supply, currently holding 4.9%, just about 77,000 coins short of the limit. At the current pace, it will stop buying within about a month.
On the structural level, there is a long squeeze. Bitcoin repeatedly faced resistance in the 8.3-8.7 range, with a large accumulation of leveraged long positions below. After the price broke key support, these longs were forcibly liquidated, creating a chain reaction of "decline → liquidation → further decline." On October 12 alone, liquidations exceeded $770 million, with longs accounting for nearly 90%.
The SNDK and ZHIPU positions I hold happen to be caught in this crowded long structure. I have merely become cannon fodder of the times.
#特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 #韩股急跌后反弹收窄，半导体买盘能否持续？ #闪迪美光下跌，长鑫技术进展受关注 $BTC $ETH $ZEC Calm down Evening Review | 4 Sector Rotation · On-Chain Whales | 10/14 | 🟡 Watching CPI landing hotter than expected, whales' holdings remain stable but prices are under pressure.
Real On-Chain (Bullish): Whales hit a new high of 3.03 million BTC, added 15,000 BTC ($1.2B) in 72h, Bull Score 80, ETF turned positive with about 2,300 BTC.
CPI Actual: Annual rate 3.7% (est. 3.6) / Core monthly rate 0.3% (est. 0.2) / Core annual rate 2.6% (est. 2.5) — all three core metrics exceeded expectations, gasoline pushed higher but core inflation has spread.
Market Reaction:
BTC failed to hold 84k, dropped from 83.8k to 82.8k (-1000), currently $82,774;
10Y yield rose 9bp to 5.31%;
Nasdaq futures down 0.65%.
Logic: Bulls betting "bad news priced in" got proven wrong, buying the expectation but selling the fact + core overheating = double whammy.
Discipline: Still holding above 82k, no position reduction triggered;
Trigger points: yearly moving average $78,599 / recovery above $85,000.
CPI hotter than expected raises rate hike expectations, short-term bearish but whales have not exited.
$BTC #OnChainWhales #4SectorRotation #CPI
For information sharing only, not investment advice. 9月CPI详细数据解读，实际数据情况要比目前表面数据可能会更加鹰派！ 当我拆解了BLS 9月CPI数据后，发现数据要比刚才表面数据可能会更加鹰派，核心不是名义CPI 3.7% 而是通过能源、核心商品与核心服务三个层面来判断： 1，能源是9月名义通胀数据保障的核心因素 2，核心商品重新出现价格压力，能源带来的通胀传导问题已经初步显现 3，核心服务业并未降温，反而从0.3%加速到0.4%，这是对Fed最不友好的部分 #美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 所以，这份数据意味着9月CPI并非只是能源一次性冲击导致的上涨这么简单，提出能源一次冲击导致名义通胀上涨后，核心商品与核心服务出现上涨，属于能源二次传导 名义通胀月率0.6%其实并不可怕，因为数据中证明了是来自能源价格上涨带来的冲击，属于阶段性或者一次性冲击，市场或者Fed最但系的是通胀二次传统与扩散，而核心商品与核心服务就证明了这个担心，同时核心服务中住房通胀依旧是核心“顽疾” 9月CPI数据公布后，CME 10月与12月加息概率并未有太大变化，但是时隔半小时后的当下，这份详细数据已经充分发酵， 目前10月加息概率从21%I am almost completely not worried that my long position on $BTC will lose money! First, the market indeed dropped about 1500 points as I predicted, and I also added to my position accordingly!
Secondly, I said that when $BTC data is released, the data itself is generally not important; it is used to coordinate liquidity sweeps. So when it first drops, I firmly go long!
Thirdly, Jin10 plus CPI and all sorts of chaotic consultations are aggressively pushing bearish news, like rising government bond yields and bets on rate hikes! In my view, none of that matters; only the market action matters!
The fact is, despite so much bearish news, $BTC did not fall below 82,000, which shows the market does not want it to go down! It's simple, just see if my judgment is right!
#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 #特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 #BTC现货ETF再度净流出，机构买盘能否回暖？ Draft (CPI reaction, data as of tonight 20:30)
September CPI came in hot across the board: headline 3.7% YoY (vs 3.6% expected), core 2.6% (vs 2.5%), and core MoM stuck at 0.3% instead of cooling to 0.2%. The pass-through question got answered — energy (+20.4% YoY, gasoline +9.1% MoM) is spilling into core, and the December hike trade just got its best argument. BTC is holding $82–83k for now, but the setup changed: the market no longer has to imagine the hike case, it just got the receipt.$BNB looks weak in the short term, 737.22 is already close to today's low. The leverage basically hasn't moved today. Both long and short liquidations are only a few tens of thousands of dollars, almost invisible against the 410 million positions. The bulls haven't been squeezed out, and the shorts haven't been forced to cover. The price is slowly grinding down, with no forced liquidations driving it, nor any new leverage coming in to chase a rebound; the market is just burning through old positions. The fee rate is close to zero, just background noise. The chart shows the high point being raised; only if the previous low is broken will it be considered a breakdown. The price is now just a bit away from the previous low, with the short-position moving averages pressing down from above. This upward structure won't hold for long. I judge the previous low will be broken, followed by a new low. Conditions to turn bullish: retake and hold above 747.5, which means today's high is reclaimed and the bearish outlook is invalidated. Exceeding expectations by 3.7% directly increases the uncertainty of a rate hike in October, gold plummets, government bonds hit new highs, with a chance to see BTC starting with 7$ETH What a real shock! The whale must have had insider information, otherwise how could they have pulled a one-hour breakeven liquidation of long positions!!
September CPI released, year-on-year 3.7% exceeding expectations (expected 3.6%), core even harsher at 2.6% year-on-year (expected 2.5%), month-on-month 0.3% (expected 0.2%).
The main cause is the surge in gasoline prices, but the core is also accelerating, indicating pressure beyond just energy.
After the CPI release, the 10-year US Treasury yield surged to around 5.3%, the 2-year yield jumped significantly, and the probability of a rate hike in October doubled from 22% to nearly 40%, hitting risk assets hard.
$BTC is clearly under short-term pressure, having fallen back to around 82.6K.
Rising US Treasury yields plus increasing rate hike expectations are headwinds for crypto and growth stocks; first, watch if the 82k level can hold.
If it breaks, it may further test 80k or even lower.
Gold $XAU and the Nasdaq also face valuation pressure.
In the medium term, if energy prices remain high and the core inflation does not cool down, the Fed’s rate hike path by year-end will be tougher, and risk assets will likely remain weak and volatile.
But if subsequent PCE or employment data soften, the market may reprice to "only one hike."
The key is to watch next week’s data and oil price trends; don’t rush to bottom-fish, wait and see. #美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 $TRUTH The second highest gainer TRUTH, don't rush to short it, this coin has no spot market. Without spot market, it's easy to have pump-and-dump coins, like the former river, lab, rave, beat, whose highs were 50 to 100 times their lows. If you keep shorting using free fuel, it can keep rocketing up. In extreme cases, I suspect it could surge from the lowest point around 0.008 to 5 to 7 times higher at 0.047～0.055. If you really want to short: please use light positions, low leverage, keep plenty of margin reserved, start at a price point of at least 0.0312 or above, light positions, light positions, light positions, test the waters carefully. This is just my personal opinion and does not constitute any advice. It's purely my own analysis and hypothesis, to be verified by facts.The US Ethereum spot ETF saw a net inflow of $24.8 million on October 13, ending a streak of ten consecutive trading days of net outflows. The full daily report from Farside shows a net outflow of $85.4 million the previous day, so this time the capital flow finally turned positive.
The inflow was uneven: the Grayscale fund with the code ETH saw an inflow of $16.7 million, Fidelity's FETH had an inflow of $8.1 million, and the other listed funds all recorded zero. Here, ETH is the fund code, not an additional on-chain transfer.
For the Ethereum market, the change is that net subscriptions of these funds have again exceeded net redemptions, temporarily halting the continuous withdrawal of funds through the fund channel for one day. Subscriptions and redemptions affect the asset size held by the funds, but these flows do not represent the total daily buy and sell volume of ETH on exchanges, nor can they be directly converted into spot buy orders at the same moment.
In the previous ten trading days, the total outflow was about $783 million, and this one-day inflow only recovers about 3.2%. Next, it remains to be seen whether net inflows can continue and expand to more funds to better judge whether the withdrawal pressure is continuously easing.
Source and chart: Farside US Ethereum ETF daily report, amounts in USD; verified after 21:00 Beijing time on 10/14. The row for 10/14 is still incomplete and should not be interpreted as zero flow. $ETH Totally lost! The harshest part of this CPI is not that the overall number exceeded expectations, but that core inflation rose simultaneously. The market had always used energy price hikes as an excuse, thinking core inflation was fine. Now that this data is out, that excuse is completely torn apart. Inflation is not just driven by oil prices; the comprehensive pressure remains, and expectations for rate cuts have been slapped down.
First, look at $BTC. Once the data came out, rate cut expectations were slapped in the face, so $BTC is definitely under short-term pressure. But don’t panic, institutional base holdings are still there, and long-term holders on-chain are still accumulating. If panic selling comes out, it might actually give whales a chance to buy cheap. Hold the base firmly, don’t rush to bottom-fish in the short term.
Next, look at $ETH. ETF funds have been flowing out all along, and when $BTC weakens, $ETH falls faster than anyone. Don’t expect it to strengthen independently in the short term; it will bear the selling pressure along with the market.
Finally, look at $XAUT gold. Core inflation exceeding expectations is actually a double-edged sword for gold. In the short term, it’s suppressed by rate hike expectations and a stronger dollar, which hurts it. But the fact that inflation can’t be contained itself proves that gold’s long-term logic is intact. Allocation demand is still coming in, central banks are still buying, and if it falls, someone will step in.
Brothers, this data is here to kill expectations. Hold your spot base firmly, unload all short-term leverage, and wait for this wave of panic to subside before making moves. #美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 @OKX星球 Brothers, the September CPI is finally out! The big coin $BTC is bearish again. In the afternoon warm-up, I judged that the overall CPI might be pushed up by energy, but the core month-on-month might drop to 0.2%. The result was an overall year-on-year of 3.7%, higher than some market expectations of 3.6%; core year-on-year 2.6%, month-on-month 0.3%, both exceeding expectations. The energy line was predicted correctly, but the core is indeed more stubborn than I expected; this time my core judgment was too optimistic. Gasoline prices in September rose 9.1% month-on-month, and energy costs pushed overall inflation up. This is not just a problem of rising oil prices. Excluding food and energy, the core month-on-month still maintained 0.3%, and housing costs also rose 0.4%. Employment has cooled down, but prices have not dropped as the market expected, making it harder for the Fed to confidently stop raising rates. The core CPI exceeding expectations may cause the market to readjust the probability of further rate hikes, with the dollar and US Treasury yields continuing to strengthen, which is obviously not good news for the big coin. So currently, my judgment is short-term bearish, leaning towards weak consolidation first, but we still need to see how the market digests it. After the data release, the big coin once returned to around 82700; next, let's see if it can stand back above 83000. If pressure continues, I will watch the previous low near 80400.What’s really worth watching today among mainstream coins is BTC, which once dropped to 81,000 intraday, then reclaimed around 83,600, while ETH remains only at 2,500, and SOL fell further to around 106. BTC is starting to find support below, but high Beta coins continue to underperform, indicating that funds are currently flowing defensively rather than showing a full return to risk appetite.
#BTC fighting to reclaim 84,000
#High Beta continues to underperform
$BTC is currently around 83,600, with a low today of 81,000 and a high of 84,200. The 81,000–82,000 range has become the most critical support zone; above that, 84,000–84,200 is the first resistance, and only after firmly holding above that should we look toward 85,000. It’s good that BTC could pull back from the lows today, but it still needs to confirm a breakout above the highs.
$ETH is currently about 2,504, down roughly 1.5% in 24 hours. The 2,480–2,500 range remains the first line of defense; on the upside, watch 2,530 first, and only after firmly holding above 2,550 can it be considered to have shaken off weakness.
$SOL is currently about 106.6, down nearly 4% in 24 hours. The 105–106 range is the first support, with 109–110 turning back into resistance. Only after holding above 110 should we look toward 112–115.
This lineup: BTC waits for confirmation at 84,000, ETH waits for 2,550, SOL waits for 110. BTC’s pullback is just the first step; whether high Beta coins can stop lagging behind will determine the quality of the rebound. $BTC
The US September CPI data has just been released, with the overall year-on-year increase rising to 3.7% (previous value 3.4%), slightly above the market expectation of 3.6%; core CPI rose to 2.6% (previous value 2.4%), also higher than the expected 2.5%. The month-on-month increase was 0.6%, one of the larger rises in recent months.
The main driver came from energy: gasoline prices surged 9.1% in a single month, contributing more than half of the overall monthly increase, with the energy component's year-on-year increase reaching 20.4%. However, core inflation also rose simultaneously, indicating that price pressures are not solely driven by oil prices; other items such as housing also contributed.
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% in September, and now with inflation data accelerating again, the market is adjusting its pricing of the subsequent policy path. The 2-year Treasury yield rose to around 4.86%, reflecting that investors are beginning to reassess the possibility that "inflation stickiness may force the Fed to raise rates again."
In simple terms: energy pushed up the overall data, core inflation is also rising, still some distance from the Fed's 2% target, and discussions about further policy tightening are back on the table. The data has been confirmed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 September CPI year-on-year rose to 3.7%, core inflation exceeded expectations. September CPI year-on-year was 3.7%, higher than previous market expectations, and the core CPI excluding energy and food was also higher than estimated, indicating inflation stickiness stronger than the market's earlier optimistic judgment. Rising energy prices pushed up overall CPI, while the strength in core components shows that service-side inflation is not falling as expected, not just a short-term disturbance from oil prices.
After the data release, the market raised the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates again this year, with US Treasury yields and the dollar strengthening in the short term. Previously, the market was betting on inflation cooling continuously and the tightening cycle ending; this data directly revised expectations, heating up hawkish pricing.
Simply put: inflation is not out of control again, but the downward pace has slowed, leaving the Fed the option to continue raising rates. Future policies will rely more on data and will not easily close the door on further rate hikes.
Transmission to the crypto market is a short-term negative. Rising US Treasury yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets; high-beta assets like BTC and ETH are prone to pressure, with short-term volatility increasing. But this is a re-pricing of expectations, not a direct trend reversal; subsequent developments depend on officials' speeches, PCE, and other inflation indicators for verification.
Key follow-ups: latest statements from Fed officials, the probability of a rate hike at the December meeting, and whether core service inflation remains persistently stubborn. If multiple inflation indicators continue to strengthen, tightening expectations will keep suppressing risk assets; if it is just a single-month pulse, after digestion, the market is likely to return to its original rhythm. $BTC $ETH $ZEC All three chains are generating revenue, but prices are not rising. Because the market is starting to distinguish one thing: who is making money, and whose pockets the money is going into.
$BTC: On-chain fees and block rewards go to miners, not holders. Miners sell coins to pay electricity bills, which is continuous selling pressure. BTC holders do not share network income, only scarcity. So no matter how active the on-chain activity is, it has no direct relation to the coin price. BTC's value comes from consensus, not cash flow.
$ETH: Mainnet gas fees are largely diverted to L2s, weakening value capture. EIP-1559 burns part of the fees, but the burn amount decreases as L2s prosper. Stakers earn issuance and priority fees, but issuance is inflationary, diluting non-stakers. ETH's cash flow story is becoming increasingly strained.
$SOL: Fees and MEV income go to validators and stakers. Inflation subsidizes validators, diluting holders. The more active the ecosystem, the more validators earn, but ordinary holders get nothing except price. SOL's economic model essentially uses inflation to buy security.
On-chain revenue does not equal token value. Only tokens that can capture revenue have a foundation for long-term appreciation. BTC relies on consensus, ETH is struggling, SOL relies on inflation. Understand whether what you hold is an asset or fuel working for others. - Four data points exceeded expectations, but the real signal is not in the overall year-on-year 3.7%, but in the core month-on-month staying at 0.3% for the second consecutive month — this is the second refutation of the consensus on "stable inflation decline." - The stickiness of the core, through the upward revision of the real interest rate path, directly raises the discount rate of risk assets. Assets with no cash flow and duration approaching infinity bear the heaviest valuation compression; this is the mechanistic reason why crypto is more resilient under similar shocks. - The price structure has not been broken: after the data release, BTC instantly dropped about a thousand dollars, then was bought back. The negative news failed to break through, which is the most noteworthy fact in the current market. --- **1. What is overlooked is the sub-items** The overall year-on-year 3.7% is higher than the expected 3.6%, and the month-on-month 0.6% meets expectations. It looks like a report pushed up by energy with a decent structure — gasoline was the main contributor to last month's increase, which is a volatile item. The problem lies in the core sub-items. Core month-on-month is 0.3%, while the market originally expected a decline to 0.2%; core year-on-year is 2.6%, higher than the expected 2.5%. Excluding food and energy, price pressure shows no signs of relief and has been rising at the same pace for two consecutive months. Single-month fluctuations can be ignored, but two consecutive months in the same direction constitute evidence. This report does not provide new arguments for "inflation sustainably returning to target." **2. Transmission relies on discount rates, not sentiment** The damage from core stickiness is not in the current rate hike probability, but in the entire interest rate path being revised upward. Expectations for nominal rate declines have been postponed 【2026/10/14 East 8 Zone 20:58】Bitcoin crashed? Let me tell you the truth!
1. First, let's interpret the released CPI data: overall inflation exceeded expectations, so there was a drop after the data release. This was the first reaction of retail investors and automated trading programs, but this drop was driven by sentiment, with no substantial new negative factors, so it won't last long; once the market calms down, it will realize that the real factor deciding whether the Fed raises rates is core inflation, which is completely within expectations and not out of control. The market already thinks the probability of a rate hike in October is very low. As long as core inflation doesn't exceed expectations, the probability of a rate hike won't rise. Those who shorted before will quickly close their positions and buy back when they see no new negative factors. Closing short positions is itself buying, which will pull the price back up, even turning positive and closing higher. There's a saying in trading: the market uses headlines to crash prices, but uses the substance to set prices!
2. In terms of operations, the bullish strategy updated yesterday and during the day is still valid. Don't be fooled by the surface data you see. Remember, core inflation is what needs attention. Although the current technical aspect is under some pressure, the resistance will be broken soon. This week, I firmly believe it will reach the top of the daily cycle box around 86500 again.【2026/10/14 East 8 Zone 20:52】Bitcoin crashed? Let me tell you the truth!
1. First, let's interpret the released CPI data: overall inflation exceeded expectations, so there was a drop after the data release. This was the first reaction of retail investors and automated trading programs, but this drop was driven by sentiment, with no substantial new negative factors, so it won't last long; once the market calms down, it will realize that the real factor deciding whether the Fed raises interest rates is core inflation, which is completely within expectations and not out of control. The market already thinks the probability of a rate hike in October is very low. As long as core inflation doesn't exceed expectations, the probability of a rate hike won't rise. Those who shorted before will quickly close their positions and buy back when they see no new negative factors. Closing short positions is itself buying, which will pull the price back, even turning it positive and closing higher. There's a saying in the trading market: the market crashes on headlines but prices are set by the substance!
2. In terms of operations, the bullish strategy updated yesterday and during the day remains valid. Don't be fooled by the surface data you see. Remember, core inflation is what matters. Although the current technical aspect is under some pressure, the resistance will be broken soon. This week, I firmly believe it will reach the top of the daily cycle box around 86500 again.In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $461 million, with short positions liquidated at $282 million and long positions at $178 million. The upper short positions have been mostly cleared, but there is still a liquidation gap around the 84500 area. ADA dropped 4% in a single day, with whales dumping over 110 million tokens, suppressing some altcoin sentiment. The arrest of an OpenAI engineer for hiding recording devices has limited impact on mainstream coins, so no need to overreact in the short term. BTC current price is 82894, with hourly moving averages in a bearish alignment, MACD momentum weakening, and the market showing weakness.
The phone vibrates in my pocket again, the order reminders are relentless, after delivering this order I still have to grab two more. Long position liquidations around 82500 are heavily stacked; the main force will likely first dip to clear leverage, then reverse to test short position liquidity at 84500. Operationally, do not chase shorts; buy long positions in batches on pullbacks between 82500 and 82100, with stop loss below 81700 and take profit between 84500 and 84800. If 81700 is broken with volume, the probability of a double spike increases, and you must exit unconditionally without holding positions.
$BTC
#Meta发布MuseWonder，股价涨超3%
@OKX星球 CPI exploded, all lines exceeded expectations. The rate cut matter can be put on hold for now.
September data, not a single number is reassuring:
Overall CPI annual rate 3.7%, expected 3.6%, highest since May, gasoline contributed more than half of the increase.
Core CPI annual rate 2.6%, expected 2.5%.
Core CPI monthly rate 0.3%, expected 0.2%. Entertainment, used cars, air tickets, medical care, clothing, almost all are rising. This is not a one-time disturbance, but a widespread warming.
Market reaction is very direct: bets on rate hikes increase, expectations of three more hikes before the end of 2027 are heating up. Rate cuts? Don't expect them in the short term.
Not very friendly to the crypto circle. Originally, the bet was "oil prices push up overall, core remains moderate," now the core has also exploded, the story can't continue. US Treasury yields will most likely continue to rise, non-yielding assets continue to be pressured.
81500-80500 will most likely be tested tonight. The 84400-85200 resistance, now it's an iron lid.
ETH, SOL, ZEC, these high Beta ones, when they fall, they fall even harder. ETFs are already flowing out, macro adds another blow, making rebounds very difficult.
Don't rush to bottom-fish, nor chase shorts. Wait 15 to 30 minutes, see where the funds stand after the US stock market opens. The real direction will only be clear after 21:30.
Tonight, patience is more valuable than courage.
#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 $BTC $ETH $ZEC 【2026/10/14 East 8 Zone 20:54】Bitcoin crashed? Let me tell you the truth!
1. First, let's interpret the released CPI data: overall inflation exceeded expectations, so there was a drop after the data release. This was the first reaction of retail investors and automated trading programs, but this drop was driven by sentiment, with no substantial new negative factors, so it won't last long; once the market calms down, it will realize that the real factor deciding whether the Fed raises interest rates is core inflation, which is completely within expectations and not out of control. The market already thinks the probability of a rate hike in October is very low. As long as core inflation doesn't exceed expectations, the probability of a rate hike won't rise. Those who shorted before will quickly close their positions and buy back when they see no new negative factors. Closing short positions is itself buying, which will pull the price back, even turning it positive and closing higher. There's a saying in the trading market: the market uses headlines to crash prices, but uses fundamentals to set prices!
2. In terms of operations, the bullish strategy updated yesterday and during the day is still valid. Don't be fooled by the surface data you see. Remember, core inflation is what needs attention. Although the current technical aspect is under some pressure, the resistance will be broken soon. This week, I firmly believe it will reach the top of the daily cycle box around 86500 again.$TRUTH bull power is weakening, bears dominate the market??
Brothers, from the truth market perspective, after the highest surge to 0.0213, it is obvious that the bulls lack momentum and start to stagnate at a high level, indicating there is still strong selling pressure above. Without new capital support, it is difficult to rise. From on-chain funds, there is also continuous outflow, so I have already positioned short orders around 0.0202, targeting 0.0182-0.0175, with a stop loss at 0.023.
【The above views are for personal reference only and do not constitute investment advice】
#美光暴跌后：是底部还是半山腰？ September CPI just released: overall year-on-year 3.7% (expected 3.6%), month-on-month 0.6%; core year-on-year 2.6% (expected 2.5%), month-on-month 0.3%. Gasoline rose 9.1% month-on-month, contributing more than half of the monthly increase.
Hotter than expected. Overall pushed up by oil prices, core inflation did not cool down and was even higher than expected. This set of data hardly supports the logic of "immediate easing".
The market originally expected a 75%-80% probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged in October. Now with core inflation exceeding expectations, rate hike expectations may reheat. Officials had disagreements before; some think another hike is needed within the year. Tonight's data has amplified the divergence.
For BTC, in the short term, it will follow this trend. Core inflation is strong, rate hike expectations are heating up, BTC is under pressure, with support between 81500 and 82000 below. Only if the data is digested and yields fall will there be a chance to rebound and test 83000 to 84000. The direction is not yet chosen, so volatility will be relatively large.
$BTC
#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期
#CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大
#8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 Tonight decides life or death! CPI inflation data is about to be released, will Bitcoin crash again? Hurry and take a look.
1. Although the situation tonight looks a bit bleak because oil prices in September were extremely high, there is a very high probability that this CPI will be higher than the last one! However, there is actually a huge turning point here, have you noticed it?
2. That is, the market may have already priced in this situation in advance! Because the previous CPI was 3.4%, and now the market expectation has reached 3.6%, and both the coin price and stock price have already fallen in advance. So this time it is not necessarily bearish, because the CPI data must be greater than this high expectation of 3.6% to be bearish, not just higher than 3.4%.
3. If the CPI is 3.5%, although it is still an increase compared to the previous value, it is below expectations, so it will still be bullish. Therefore, there is still a turning point tonight. I think if the CPI meets or is below expectations, it will be beneficial for the coin price to rise, and this probability is not small.
4. Personally, I think around 80,000 is very likely the bottom of this correction, so you can confidently buy in. Even if it breaks below, it won’t be by much. I analyzed this 80,000 support two weeks ago on the show, first a rebound at 82,500, then another rebound at 80,500, and now it looks fine.
5. As for the big picture, I am very confident that the big bull market in the crypto world has really arrived! The current month of volatility is purely just digesting the previous profits from the rise, and after consolidation, it will continue to go up.Brothers, the CPI data has just been released, and it has exceeded expectations across the board. This is not good news.
Inflation hasn't retreated, and the rate hike sword is raised again.
September CPI year-on-year is 3.7%, higher than the expected 3.6%, and the previous value of 3.4%. Month-on-month is 0.6%, the largest increase in 5 months, with gasoline alone contributing more than half of the monthly increase.
The real killer is the core CPI.
Core year-on-year is 2.6%, higher than the expected 2.5%. Core month-on-month is 0.3%, unchanged from August, completely failing to cool down as the market expected 0.2%. The energy index soared 20.4% year-on-year, and gasoline rose 9.1% month-on-month. Inflation not only hasn't retreated but is spreading from energy to core areas.
What does this mean?
Core month-on-month at 0.3% shows inflation stickiness is stubborn. The market's previous pricing of a “pause in rate hikes in October” now needs to be questioned again. CME data showed the probability of a rate hike in October was only 21%, but after this data release, rate hike bets will quickly revive. The US dollar and US Treasury yields will strengthen, and funds will flee from risk assets. The opportunity cost of zero-yield assets is rising.
Polymarket prediction markets show the probability of a Fed rate hike in December has risen to 80%. This CPI data will push that number even higher.
The market is already waiting for direction.
BTC has fallen below 83,000, currently at 82,865. The key watershed is at 83,300. If it can't hold 83,300, supports at 82,500 and 80,000 will be tested in sequence. Only a volume-backed hold above 84,600 can provide a foundation for a rebound continuation. The first 15-minute candlestick high after the data release is key to confirming the trend; don't rush to act on the first pulse after the data is published. Wait for a pullback, wait for confirmation.
ETH is currently around 2,515, with higher volatility sensitivity and usually larger retracements in down phases than BTC. 2,460 is key support; breaking it targets 2,400 and 2,300. The ETH derivatives market has higher leverage density and more extreme concentration of long positions; once it breaks key liquidation zones, the liquidation intensity will be amplified by leverage multiples.
SOL is linked to the broader market; 105 is key support, break it to reduce positions. 115 is resistance; don't chase longs before a volume breakout.
Inflation doesn't die, rate hikes don't stop. On a night when CPI exceeds expectations, cash is worth more than faith.
$BTC $ETH $SOL CPI finalized at an annual rate of 3.7, higher than expected, which is bearish. After Bitcoin plunged to 839, it quickly rebounded to 826. The data still needs time to be digested. If this round of decline stabilizes above 822-820, then the market will see a full-scale bullish counterattack. The reason is simple: today's CPI is a major bearish data point; if it can't push prices down further, they will rise. No need to rush to buy yet; watch if 820 can hold. Of course, those who can't resist can lightly go long around 826 with a small stop loss.I can't speak for other fields, but when it comes to macro data and geopolitics, just listen to the old man—he's at an internationally leading level. You won't suffer losses or be deceived by following him. Maybe some institutions will cut you, maybe some projects will scam you, but the old man will never let you down.
Currently, the CME's probability of a rate hike in October hasn't changed yet, but after the 9:30 opening, the US stock market definitely won't show a good face. Tonight's CPI indeed exceeded expectations, especially the core monthly rate is also poor.
When the nest is destroyed, no egg remains intact. Don't be fooled by the seeming strength of Bitcoin, but as I said, if the US stock market continues to fall and liquidity keeps shrinking, selling assets to cover positions is inevitable. By then, it will be too late to run when the sand and stones fall.
As for why the decline is simple: AI, represented by storage in July, has peaked. The recent rise is just a last flicker of the fish tail. With the midterm elections in November, tensions between the US and Iran, and the holiday season bringing various negative factors, it's normal for big money to rush out early. This data basically confirms that the decline starting last week was smart money exiting early.
Once momentum forms, it can't be reversed in the short term. Whether it's a top or a bottom, you need to give enough time to wait for the pattern and signals before entering again. For now, just rest quietly. #美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 $BTC can't rise anymore, it's not institutions selling
The number 84800 keeps being mentioned.
It is a dividing line, not a target price.
How this number is calculated:
It is the upper boundary of the range; only if it stands above it can a reversal be talked about.
If it can't stand above, the price will keep moving back and forth within the original range.
The difference between past and present:
Institutions' long-term chips haven't moved; what's pressing the market is interest rate expectations.
So it doesn't fall deeply, nor rise happily.
$ETH follows a different logic.
It looks at funds, not chips.
Once 2580 breaks, the entire altcoin market cools down.
$ZEC's rise relies on short covering.
It's not a fundamental strengthening, but sentiment pushing it.
Three coins, three pricing models.
Waiting for a single number to unify the answer is futile.
Stop-loss orders placed above 84800 are going in the wrong direction.
#September CPI announced tonight, Fed rate hike disagreements to be resolved
#$BTC $ETHCPI results: Clearly hawkish, but not an out-of-control spike!
This data shows: Core month-on-month is actually 0.3%, which is higher than expected, indicating underlying inflation is more stubborn than anticipated.
This is not a "false heat" driven solely by oil prices.
Overall month-on-month at 0.6% meets expectations, suggesting the energy shock was largely priced in by the market; the real negative is the core monthly rate holding at 0.3% and the core annual rate rebounding to 2.6%. A core monthly rate of 0.3% annualized roughly equals 3.7%, clearly above the Fed's 2% target.
At the same time, real income fell by 0.5%, creating a mild stagflation mix of "rising prices and declining purchasing power," which is unfavorable for high-valuation assets.
Impact on the Federal Reserve:
Before the data release, the market mainly bet on the Fed pausing in October and resuming rate hikes in December, with about a 78% chance of no change in October and an 88% chance of a hike in December.
After the data release, October may still pause: a single month at 0.3% is insufficient to force immediate Fed action.
The probability of a December hike has further increased: the continuity of core inflation is the main basis.
Expectations for "higher rates maintained longer" have strengthened.
Discussions of rate cuts are basically postponed unless employment or consumption significantly deteriorate afterward.
Impact on U.S. stocks:
The Nasdaq and growth stocks are somewhat negative because core inflation exceeding expectations will raise real interest rates and valuation discount rates.
The market may experience:
1. Phase one: Nasdaq futures decline, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar rise. CPI Landing: Liquidity Has Only "Loosened a Bit," Don't Take It as a Bull Market Signal
CPI is the global high-risk asset's barometer, with a clear transmission path:
CPI → US Treasury yields → US dollar → risk appetite → crypto market.
This time, CPI moderately declined, but inflation remains resilient, resulting in a very neutral-to-warm outcome:
✅ No sharp rise beyond expectations → dispelled fears of "another rate hike," US Treasury yields slightly fell, temporarily loosening the tightest string pressing down on crypto;
❌ But also no sharp drop → rate cuts are not on the agenda, and no large-scale easing has arrived. It's only a marginal liquidity recovery, not a flood.
This explains the current market divergence:
- BTC: Benefits from panic relief, acting as the market's ballast, showing resilience but hard to sustain a continuous short squeeze;
- ETH: Weaker, only enough to passively follow gains, lacking strong easing expectations, unable to form an independent rally;
- ZEC and other highly elastic assets: are the biggest beneficiaries of marginal liquidity improvement. With slight risk appetite recovery, short-term speculative funds are willing to gamble on themes and elasticity, producing independent strength.
In short: CPI has removed the immediate crash curse but has not issued a bull market pass to the market.
It is still an oversold recovery rally. If inflation fluctuates again later, US Treasury rates may become volatile anytime, causing intense market swings.
You can trade with the trend but avoid heavy positions chasing highs, and continue to monitor US Treasury yields and subsequent inflation data.别急着站队，清算图不是预言机 你是不是也盯着上下两排清算数字，越看越像在等一个答案？ 过去24小时杠杆仓位重新排布，四个币种的清算区都亮了灯。BTC报83889，上方84705附近约2923万美元空单等着被清算，下方82188约4031万美元多单排着。空头那边离得更近，多头这边人更多，现在选边真的还太早。ETH在2544附近晃，2568和2509分别压着约2279万美元的清算带，离现价太近了，短线很容易被上下插针扫一遍情绪。SOL报111.54，上方113.37有522万美元空单，下方108.39有326万美元多单，上方力量更厚一点。ZEC报1281，上方1306只有76万美元空单，下方1239有92万美元多单，反而下方压力稍大。 我更在意的不是哪边先被扫，而是人群现在的心理状态。很多人嘴上说等确认，手指其实已经放在开仓键上了。FOMO和犹豫同时存在，叙事又有点疲劳，这种时候价格最容易先制造一个假方向，把急躁的人骗进去，再回头收拾真正有耐心的人。 偏多的路径是：BTC先向上刺穿84700，把空头止损点着，如果站稳，短线风险偏好会回暖，ETH和SOL容易跟着弹，山寨情绪也会松一口气。偏空$FIL has summarized several points about the upcoming FIL halving and the market's lack of reaction. Everyone is welcome to add comments:
1. Linear halving reduces incremental supply, but there is a large stock of existing tokens.
2. Heavy lock-up, with significant selling pressure at key levels.
3. Miners and the foundation continue to release tokens, causing severe inflation.
4. Demand cannot keep up; most positive news is just empty promises.
5. Long-term decline severely damages retail investor confidence.
6. Lack of fresh capital to take over positions.通胀涨到3.7%，油价还在高位，AI公司却继续疯狂建设数据中心。美联储这盘棋，光靠加息恐怕没那么容易赢。 今晚美国9月CPI公布： 实际3.7%，预期3.6%，前值3.4%。 通胀重新升温，美国2年期国债收益率随即上涨3.83个基点，报4.831%。 最值得琢磨的是，这次通胀有相当一部分来自供给端。 霍尔木兹海峡的能源供应风险、关税、半导体需求和AI数据中心扩张，都可能推高成本。 利率可以压制消费，却不能直接增加石油供应，更不能一夜之间建出更多芯片工厂。 🔮 今晚全球资金与Web3观察 🟠 BTC｜防守观察 关注83,000美元附近的承接，以及美元、美债收益率是否继续同步走强。 若价格跌破支撑且OI增加，重点评估新增空头风险。 🟠 SOL｜高弹性资产 宏观压力增强时，SOL可能比BTC出现更大波动。 短线关注4小时趋势、资金费率与多头清算分布。没有新增买盘确认，暂不把反弹当成趋势恢复。 🟠 LINK｜基础设施赛道 链上金融和AI代理叙事仍值得长期跟踪，但技术发展不等于代币立即上涨。 观察成交量、OI和相对BTC的强弱变化。 🟠 RENDER｜AI算力叙事 数据中心建设带来真实