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Conclusion first: Whether it can hold depends on $2,400, but today it fell harder than BTC, making it one of the weakest major coins. ETH dropped from $2,508 yesterday to a low of $2,401, closing at $2,423, down 3.41% for the day, with a trading volume of $297 million. CPI was higher than expected, and high Beta assets fell more sharply; ETH is a typical example—it dropped 3.4%, while BTC only fell 2.1%. Look at the structure. Spot price is $2,423, perpetual contracts are aligned with no de-peg. Open interest is about $1.53 billion; funding rate is +0.0087%, slightly positive. Note this detail—price is falling but funding rate is still positive, indicating bulls haven't given up yet. If it continues to fall, there is room for this leverage to be cleared, so watch out for subsequent deleveraging. Look at the position. Currently at $2,423, it has broken below the 7-day moving average ($2,491), 14-day ($2,566), 30-day ($2,608), and 60-day ($2,512)—all four moving averages broken. The 14-day low is $2,401 (yesterday's low), and the 30-day low is $2,358. In other words, it is standing on the previous low of $2,401, which is a short-term lifeline. Market cap is $295.7 billion, ranked 2nd. ETH's fundamentals in DeFi, stablecoins, and RWA remain, providing medium-term support. But the short-term structure has clearly weakened. What about the short-term trend? In the next 1-2 weeks: pessimistic (35%) break below After the CPI release, gold dropped 1.6%, silver fell 3.4%, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.72%. Bitcoin only fell 1.5%, roughly the same as gold.
Gold's market cap is 28.7 trillion, silver's is 3.2 trillion, and Bitcoin's is only 1.7 trillion. Its market cap is just one-seventeenth of gold's and half of silver's, yet it didn't fall as sharply as they did.
Small-cap assets resist declines at a level comparable to gold. This resilience is indeed something.$BTC is watching one key level today: $81,500
$BTC is currently at $81,345, $ETH at $2,370. The aftershocks of yesterday's CPI 3.7% exceeding expectations haven't faded yet, and the probability of a rate hike in October jumped from 22% to 49%, so the macro headwinds remain. But $BTC is sitting right on the average cost line of US spot ETF holders at $81,500, a level that has already supported two rebounds.
The funding side tells the same story: last week, ETF net outflows were $679 million, the largest since the end of June; but on Tuesday, there were reports that IBIT and FBTC returned about $176 million (source unnamed, to be verified). Some ran when prices fell, others stepped in when they came back.
If $81,500 holds, there is still room to fight today, with the rebound first targeting around $84,000; if the hourly close falls below $81,500, the next target is $77,500. Until the headwinds clear, don't chase the rebound high. Take profit at 2335 was pierced in a second, this short on ETH got smoked
Brothers, that spike just now, all shorts must have been smoked, right?
$BTC directly crashed to just above 80000, ETH was even more brutal, dropping straight down to 2310.
Here's my trade: I opened an ETH short at 2511, set take profit at 2335, and that one spike just pierced it, locking in 176 points without hesitation.
Honestly, I was sure it would drop this round, but I didn’t expect it to fall so fast and decisively.
The logic is simple: last night core CPI was 0.3%, overall 3.7%, both exceeding expectations, turning the rate cut scenario into a rate hike on the spot. CME shows at least two hikes before the end of January 2027 with a 73.7% probability, October hike probability jumped from 21.6% to 43.7%, and the chance of no change dropped to just 1.2%. Before the data, people were shouting "bad news is priced in, full position bottom fishing," but overnight all that became fuel. BTC at 84000 was the bulls’ last trap to lure buyers.
You can check my post from yesterday, I kept saying don’t chase longs before the data, the rebound is just giving shorts some room, once the macro trend reverses, the stampede is faster than anyone.
Brothers who caught this wave, drop a comment to share your wins, let me see how many got smoked.
If you missed it, don’t worry, there will be rebounds during the rate hike cycle, opportunities won’t be just this once. But remember, don’t catch the first spike like a flying knife.
The above is just market observation, not trading advice.
#US CPI exceeds expectations to 3.7%, PPI faces another test tonight #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 TSMC's Q3 revenue has been finalized, greatly exceeding expectations, with the main focus now shifting to gross margin.
Revenue hit a new high driven by AI+HPC+2nm volume ramp, but the 2nm ramp-up and depreciation from the new overseas fab are suppressing gross margin.
If the gross margin stays above 66%, profits are expected to strengthen accordingly; if it approaches the 65% lower limit, it indicates that new process cost pressures are higher than expected.
Q4 guidance, 2nm yield, and capital expenditures will have a greater impact on subsequent valuations than Q3's single-quarter net profit.How do whales operate? Starting from this precise ETH long position to closing after CPI
A whale opened a long position of 20,000 ETH at about $1936 on August 19, holding for over 56 days, with a peak unrealized profit of about $17 million, finally closing the position after a pullback triggered by a hotter-than-expected CPI, locking in about $8.93 million in profit.
This typical whale operation is actually a true trading bible:
· Position early at low levels instead of chasing highs;
· Hold mid-term positions, able to withstand large drawdowns in unrealized profits;
· Use clear macro events (CPI) as exit signals, rather than stubbornly holding to target prices;
· Prioritize locking in certain profits, not chasing the perfect selling point.
Yesterday's CPI was indeed a bit of a surprise,
Year-over-year 3.7% higher than expected, pushing up US Treasury yields and rate hike expectations,
BTC fell from near 84,000 to around 81,500, ETH dropped to the 2410–2430 range, increasing long liquidations.
My judgment:
$BTC support at 81,000–80,500, if broken may test 80,000;
Resistance at 82,500–83,000, strong resistance at 84,000.
$ETH support at 2380–2400, if broken may test 2350;
Resistance at 2480–2500, strong resistance at 2550.
Short-term macro still dominates, whales choose to take profits rather than continue to bet on a rebound, reflecting risk control priority.
Watch subsequent inflation data and Fed statements. #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 早上好，币圈今天不是“暴涨暴跌剧场”，更像是机构在搬桌子、赌徒在换筹码、监管在补门禁。 一、大盘：BTC没躺平，ETH有点累 BTC 在 7.7–7.8 万区间磨人，恐惧贪婪指数掉回“中性偏冷”，期权市场短期不算兴奋。 ETH 跟涨不力、环比还跌过一阵，市场现在不太信“ETH 马上冲前高”这套老剧本，更多在看质押收入和 L2 手续费能不能接住估值。 总市值约 2.6 万亿美金，成交量环比下滑，说明不是疯牛，是边洗边挑标的。 二、监管：国外发牌照，国内堵源头 中国侧继续把虚拟货币、RWA 代币化按非法金融风险压：换币、撮合、定价、代币融资、境内 RWA 中介全都踩红线，人民币稳定币也别想乱发。 海外反而更“收编”：泰国 10/16 起允许 BTC、ETH 现货 ETF 在交易所交易；英国改支付规则接代币化存款；新加坡华侨行在 ETH/Solana 上发代币化黄金；俄罗斯一读通过加密合法化框架。 一句话：西方把加密往“证券/基金/支付管道”里塞，东方把加密当“洗钱与间谍经费风险”堵。 三、行业大事件：钱往“能解释给监管听”的地方跑 代币化黄金/基金/国债变香：Legal & General#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓
TSMC's Q3 revenue hit a record high with a 50% year-over-year increase, but the market did not rally. The core focus is not on the realized revenue but on profitability and future guidance.
The company provided a Q3 gross margin guidance of 65%-67%, down from 67.7% in Q2, with capital expenditures from capacity expansion being the main pressure. The strong revenue growth is driven by AI foundry orders, but expansion costs will erode profits.
The current 2% stock price drop reflects a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" scenario, as the revenue upside has already been priced in. The real highlights of the earnings report are: first, whether the actual gross margin is near the upper or lower end of the range; second, the Q4 revenue guidance to verify if AI demand can continue; third, whether capital expenditures will be further increased.
If the gross margin approaches 67%, Q4 guidance is strong, and spending is controlled, the stock price is likely to recover; conversely, if it nears the 65% lower bound, guidance is weak, and spending surges, pressure will continue. The earnings report can also indirectly confirm the health of the AI industry chain.$UNI #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new focus Uniswap V4 major upgrade explained
Uniswap officially launches a new ETH/USDC trading pool equipped with VolatilePair Hook, achieving differentiated buy and sell fees, breaking the traditional DEX uniform fee model.
Traditional AMM mechanisms have fixed fees; in extreme market conditions, arbitrage bots quickly capture volatility profits, while liquidity providers continuously bear impermanent loss, severely diluting returns.
Relying on V4 programmable Hook smart contracts, the new pool can identify market trends in real time: low fees for trend-following trades, dynamic fees added for large counter-trend impact trades, effectively raising the cost of reverse arbitrage bots and suppressing high-frequency malicious arbitrage.
The core of this upgrade is to reshape the on-chain trading profit structure, protect LP returns, reduce impermanent loss, and retain the value of market volatility within the ecosystem.
This is also a key implementation of the Uniswap V4 programmable ecosystem, marking the DEX's transition from basic token swaps to a new stage of on-chain finance that is intelligent, risk-controllable, and strategy-customizable.#TSMCOct15Earnings TSMC's Q3 revenue explodes, but October 15 is the real test
1.49 trillion TWD, a 50% year-over-year growth, a historic record high — TSMC's Q3 revenue was finalized early and exceeded the maximum forecast. But this number no longer matters; market expectations have been pushed very high, and what management says in the legal meeting will determine whether the stock price rises or falls.
Four questions that decide the direction
$TSM #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓
#台积电Q3营收创新高，What other highlights are there in the October 15 earnings report?
Do you think TSMC can break records again with this earnings report?
According to the latest data, TSMC's Q3 revenue soared to 1.49 trillion New Taiwan Dollars, approximately 46.7 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 51% $TSM
The market predicts net profit to reach 746.3 billion New Taiwan Dollars, which if realized, would mark six consecutive quarters of record-high profits. In this AI-driven market, it remains the steady water seller on the fishing platform.
Compared to Q3 results, two variables attract more attention:
▶️ Gross margin and guidance
Last quarter's gross margin was 67.7%, with official estimates for Q3 between 65% and 67%. Against the backdrop of 3nm being snapped up by Nvidia and Apple, it remains to be seen if management will raise the full-year revenue growth forecast and increase capital expenditures.
▶️ The Texas factory drama
Elon Musk proposed the Terafab chip park plan, with TSMC possibly only leasing. The Arizona plant is still unresolved, so moving to Texas is not urgent; it seems more like a long-term layout post-2030 or a geopolitical bargaining chip.
Compared to chip manufacturing, the real bottleneck is advanced packaging CoWoS; packaging and testing capacity can't keep up, so AI chips still can't be delivered on time.
Looking ahead:
▶️ Short-term caution against the good news being fully priced in
Even if data is strong, if gross margin guidance slows, the stock price may experience short-term volatility and pullback.
▶️ Long-term moat is very deep
Major players' self-developed chips still rely on its technology and yield in the short term; in the coming years, it remains the biggest beneficiary of AI dividends. #MetaQ3AISpendingOutlook #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓
Actually, now the earnings report shows impressive revenue, but the market is not buying it, and the number of such declines is increasing. The main reasons are, first, the good news has been fully priced in, because before this earnings report was released, everyone had already predicted that TSMC's performance would definitely be good, after all, it still dominates the market, responsible for manufacturing many chips and the like. Currently, there is no second player who can challenge it. The second reason is the overall semiconductor sector's heavy decline, especially Samsung and SK Hynix; their massive drops also affect TSMC's trend. So this time, TSMC is still worth considering buying on dips. The economic crisis is expected to come earliest in the second half of 2027, so there is still about half a year to a year to operate.#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓
TSMC's Q3 revenue hits a new high, but I'm more concerned about the upcoming profit announcement!
Many people see $TSM's record revenue and immediately think AI chip demand has exploded again. But what really determines the next move in the stock price might not be revenue, but gross margin and the Q4 guidance.
TSMC's biggest advantage is benefiting from AI demand through both advanced process technology and advanced packaging. $NVDA needs high-end GPU capacity, $AMD requires advanced process technology, and $AAPL also relies on TSMC's manufacturing capabilities.
However, revenue growth does not equal profit growth.
The ramp-up of 2nm capacity, expansion of overseas fabs, and investment in advanced packaging all bring depreciation and cost pressures. If gross margin doesn't keep pace with revenue growth, the market may reassess the valuation.
Right now, I’m focusing on three numbers.
First, whether gross margin can stay high, to judge the pricing power of advanced process technology.
Second, the speed of CoWoS capacity expansion, to determine if AI orders can continue converting into revenue.
Third, the 2026 capital expenditure and future quarterly guidance, to gauge management’s confidence in AI demand.
This also relates to the industry chain expectations for $NVDA, $AMD, $AVGO, and $SKHYNIX.
My view is that TSMC’s biggest focus now is no longer whether there are AI orders, but how much profit these huge investments can actually generate.
Record revenue is just the first hurdle; profit margin and future guidance are the real tests.TSMC's just released Q3 report, if you only look at the record-high revenue and net profit, actually offers no surprise to seasoned market watchers; it's simply that AI computing demand is still tearing through capacity on the main board.
In fact, despite facing uncontrollable overseas factory construction costs and the "money-eating" pressure of early 2nm capacity ramp-up, its gross margin still manages to head straight toward the upper limit of guidance. This shows that advanced process technology gives downstream chip giants more bargaining power than most imagine.
To put it plainly, whether it's Nvidia or Apple, there is simply no alternative. If your computing chip wants to crush competitors on energy efficiency, you have to obediently pay TSMC the toll.
Many worry that management's heavy capital expenditure will drag down short-term cash flow and profit margins, but I actually see this as the most hardcore moat strategy. In the wafer foundry sector, which is extremely capital and technology barrier intensive, the essence of counter-cyclical and cyclical aggressive capacity expansion is to use massive funds to forge absolute monopoly on the next generation node.
Wall Street's buy rating logic is actually simple: they are not focused on one or two quarters' depreciation cost fluctuations, but on who will be the true winner taking the most certain profits in the AI infrastructure buildout wave.
As long as the downstream computing narrative doesn't completely fade, TSMC's logic of locking downstream pricing power through process leadership won't change. Cost pressure is real, but so is the ability to transfer costs through pricing power.
#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 CPI data has been released, overall inflation exceeded expectations, and core inflation rose simultaneously. The Fed's excuse of "only relying on energy price increases" has been completely torn apart. The market responded with a sharp drop; what should we expect next?
After the data came out, BTC immediately fell below 82,000. ETF funds were already flowing out, and now with tighter macro expectations, buyers dare not enter. If 80,000 doesn't hold today, the next support is 78,000.
ETH is the worst off; it was already the weakest among the three. ETFs continue to bleed, staking yields can't keep up with U.S. Treasuries, and institutions are not stepping in at the bottom. When BTC weakens, ETH falls the hardest. It continues to decline today, and it’s estimated to be difficult to stabilize in the short term.
XAUT also plunged, with spot gold dropping nearly 2%. Core inflation exceeding expectations pushed up real interest rates, and both the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields are rising together. Non-yielding gold can only take a hit in the short term. But gold quickly rebounded today because ETF allocation funds are still flowing in, and central banks have not stopped. The biggest difference between gold and BTC is that BTC’s buyers are on-chain whales, while gold’s buyers are central banks and sovereign funds. The capital attributes and patience of the latter are on a completely different level.
Hold your BTC and ETH spot positions firmly, and unload all short-term leverage. Gold is under short-term pressure but fundamentally stronger than BTC. #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 @OKX星球 TSMC's Q3 revenue hits a record high, but the real focus might be on Q4
TSMC is about to release its full Q3 financial report.
Based on previously released monthly data, Q3 revenue is approximately 1.49 trillion New Taiwan Dollars, a year-on-year increase of about 50%, setting a new historical high.
However, for investors, a record revenue is only the first step; what truly matters is whether this performance can continue to support the market's optimistic expectations for the AI industry chain.
I believe there are three key points to watch going forward:
1️⃣ Whether the gross margin can be maintained at a high level
The market is focusing on a gross margin guidance of about 65%–67%. If revenue continues to grow but gross margin declines significantly, further observation is needed on how advanced process expansion, capital expenditure, and cost changes impact profitability.
2️⃣ Whether the Q4 performance guidance can exceed expectations
Stock prices trade not only on past performance but also on future growth expectations. When the market has already fully priced in AI demand growth, simply delivering a strong financial report may not be enough to push the stock price higher. What truly matters is whether the company's outlook is more optimistic than market expectations.
3️⃣ Whether AI demand can translate into sustained profit growth
The long-term logic of the AI industry remains worth attention, but investors also need to distinguish two issues: whether AI demand is genuinely real, and whether the current stock price has already fully reflected this growth.
A good company is not necessarily always a good price.
#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 TSMC's Q3 2026 revenue hit a record high, reaching NT$1.49 trillion (approximately $46.7 billion), up 51% year-over-year, exceeding market expectations.
The core driver comes from AI high-performance computing orders, with 5nm/3nm advanced processes fully loaded, and a recovery in Apple's iPhone business providing support. Gross margin remains high.
⚠️ Risks: Performance is highly tied to the AI capital expenditure cycle; U.S. factory construction increases costs, and geopolitical and industry competition uncertainties exist.
Focus on the guidance for the upcoming Q4 performance; impressive financial results do not necessarily mean the stock price will rise, as positive news is easily priced in and may pull back.#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 TSMC released its earnings report today, but the stock fell 2% pre-market.
It has now dropped 12% from the high of 484. The MA5, MA10, and MA20 are all pressing down from above, exactly like BTC.
The 50% revenue growth in Q3 was already clear last week. The market is now betting on one thing: whether the gross margin can hold above 67%.
CPI just exploded last night, and tonight there are PPI and retail data. At times like this, even if the earnings numbers look good, if the overall market keeps falling, TSMC won’t be able to hold up.
Previously, the options market bet on a ±5% volatility after earnings, but the average of the last four times was only 2.87%. Expectations are maxed out; at this level, the biggest fear is "good news already priced in"? Even if guidance is a bit softer, the stock price will still be hammered. #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 Still quite interesting #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓
The 10-year US Treasury yield is approaching 5%, but the market still seems skeptical.
The Treasury is buying back long-term bonds, theoretically providing support to the market, yet yields continue to rise.
I feel the market's focus is no longer just on whether interest rates are high, but on how much debt the US will issue in the coming years.
Inflation hasn't been fully suppressed, fiscal spending hasn't stopped, and the debt scale keeps growing. Looking at these factors together, it's hard for long-term capital to feel completely at ease.
This is actually a rather interesting phase for the crypto market.
On one hand, US Treasury yields nearing 5% will indeed divert some risk capital; on the other hand, if the high yields reflect increasing debt pressure, some funds will seek alternatives outside of US Treasuries.
Gold has been performing well recently, and $BTC is also doing fine. I think this is somewhat related to this macro backdrop.
In the past, people liked to compare BTC with the Nasdaq, but now more and more are starting to discuss BTC, gold, and US Treasuries within the same framework.
This shift itself might be more worth paying attention to than short-term price fluctuations.$ETH $BTC
460 million liquidated in 1 hour, bulls suffer a bloodbath
Just now, 460 million liquidated across the entire network in one hour,
almost all long positions were taken out,
ETH and BTC both plunged simultaneously,
open interest plummeted sharply,
indicating a bull stampede,
not a normal correction.
Current prices remain pressured below the moving averages,
MACD death cross unchanged;
if the lost ground cannot be quickly recovered and support held,
the bearish trend will continue.
The market is extremely weak,
short-term outlook remains bearish,
but beware of a retaliatory rebound after overselling.
It is recommended to wait for a rebound to be resisted at key resistance levels before trading with the trend,
strictly control leverage,
and guard against wick risks. #TSMCOct15Earnings TSMC's revenue has already exceeded expectations, so what is the Thursday earnings call really about?
TSMC's Q3 revenue was actually announced early, about $46.7 billion, higher than the company's own forecast of $44.6 to $45.8 billion. The Thursday earnings call isn't about revenue, but about the costs behind that revenue.
The first hurdle is gross margin. The Q3 guidance is 65% to 67%, with a midpoint of 66%, which is 1.7 percentage points lower than Q2's 67.7%, Capital inflow ≠ reversal! Don't be fooled by the first bullish candle (｡•́︿•̀｡)
$BTC 83,314, ETH 2,496, SOL 106.61.
The single-day ETF data looks pretty good: BTC net inflow of 176 million, ETH 24.8 million, SOL is still quietly slipping away. But looking at the 7-day span — overall still bleeding. One day's inflow is at best a drowning person surfacing for air, not meaning they've reached shore (￣▽￣)*
The market language is more honest: BTC resists decline, ETH and $SOL are weak. Without capital forming a united front, where is the full-scale attack?
Tonight's September CPI release is the real touchstone. Before the data is out, I don't care who jumps first — those rushing to run often get trapped in false breakouts (╯﹏╰)
My verification logic is simple:
🔸 Only BTC rises → partial recovery, don't get excited
🔸 ETH and SOL rise together → rebound credibility is established
Real opportunities never lie in the first sharp rising candle, but after the market has revealed its hand (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧
Is this inflow a prelude to reversal or a continuation of the downtrend? We'll know tonight. Don't rush to bottom-fish; wait for the market to show its cards first. #美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 TSMC released its earnings report today, but the stock dropped 2% pre-market.
It's now at 425, down 12% from the high of 484. The MA5, MA10, and MA20 are all pressing down from above, just like BTC.
The 50% revenue increase in Q3 was expected, known since last week. The market is now betting on one thing: whether the gross margin can hold above 67%.
The problem is the unfavorable macro environment. CPI just exploded last night, and tonight there are PPI and retail data coming out. Reporting earnings in such a context, even if the numbers look good, if the overall market keeps falling, TSMC won't be able to hold up.
Previously, the options market bet on a post-earnings volatility of ±5%, but the average of the last four times was only 2.87%. Expectations are maxed out, and at this level, the biggest fear is "good news already priced in" — so what if revenue hits a record high? If guidance is a bit soft, the stock price will still be hammered.
Also, look at the recent trend: the stock dropped 12% before the earnings report, as if someone ran early.Revenue of 1.49 trillion is just the obvious card; watch these three things in Thursday's earnings report
TSMC's Q3 revenue hit 1.49 trillion New Taiwan dollars, up 50% year-on-year, a historic high — but this was already known, announced last week. The real highlights of the October 15 earnings report are the following three points.
First, gross margin. Guidance is 65%-67%, while Q2 was 67.7%. Morgan Stanley directly estimates 67.5%, and the market is fully betting on the high end. WhetherWhen people come, does that mean someone will definitely buy the coin?
For $DOGE, I think the easiest thing to overlook is that payment and holding are actually two different things.
If more people use it to buy things, of course that helps with usage, but if merchants immediately convert it back to cash after receiving it, the buying demand can quickly turn into selling.
It still has about 5 billion new coins added each year, but the proportion of new supply relative to the total is gradually decreasing.
So what I want to see more is, after the hype dies down, how many people are willing to keep a balance. Being able to spend it is one use case, but being willing to hold it is another layer of demand.
For $WLD, it also needs to be analyzed separately. Identity verification is useful, but that doesn’t mean all users need to buy the coin.
World ID, the applications, and WLD belong to the same network, but they solve different problems, so you can’t directly equate the number of verified users with the number of token buyers.
My judgment criterion is simple: after a person verifies their identity, what else requires continuous use of WLD?
If this question is clearly answered, then the significance of user growth for the coin price can be better assessed.
The relationship with $RENDER is more direct. Payment for computing tasks corresponds to token burning, but the network also issues rewards simultaneously.
So just looking at the burn numbers isn’t enough; you also have to see if customers pay repeatedly and if orders can be sustained. A single large order can make the data look good, but returning customers better indicate whether this business is stable.#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓
Regarding my expectations, I see them in three layers:
Basically settled: Revenue
TSMC announces revenue monthly, and the total for three months is already out: Q3 totals about 1.494 trillion New Taiwan Dollars (approximately 46.7 billion USD), a year-on-year increase of +51%, already exceeding the company's own guidance range of 44.6–45.8 billion USD, and also higher than analysts' average expectation of 1.46 trillion. So revenue is no surprise; it's a "known good."
Most likely outcome: Profit and gross margin
Market consensus: Net profit around 740 billion New Taiwan Dollars (year-on-year about +65%), ADR earnings about 4.4 USD each. The company guidance for gross margin is 65%–67% (Q2 was 67.7%, and the guidance itself already hinted at sequential dilution, coming from 2nm ramp-up and overseas fabs). My expectation is it will be at the upper-middle of the guidance—demand and capacity utilization are clear, the real test is that the dilution extent does not exceed expectations. #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验
$476 million liquidated in one hour! Bullish stampede review + market analysis
✅ Core reasons for liquidation
1. Root cause: Macro bearish due to CPI exceeding expectations
US September CPI and core CPI both exceeded expectations, causing the market to reprice the Fed's rate hike probability, pushing US Treasury yields up and the dollar stronger. Crypto is a non-interest-bearing risk asset, so large funds first reduce positions to hedge risk. BTC and ETH spot ETFs have been continuously seeing net outflows, with insufficient buying pressure to absorb the sell-off.
2. Chain reaction: Bullish concentrated stop-loss triggers a stampede
Many funds previously speculated on CPI optimism and placed long orders in advance, accumulating a large number of long positions near support levels. After the price broke key levels, stop-loss orders were triggered en masse, and these stop-loss orders themselves became sell orders, further pushing prices down, creating a negative feedback loop (the more it falls, the more liquidations; the more liquidations, the more it falls).
3. Structure: ETH is the hardest hit
ETH is much more elastic than BTC, and leveraged funds prefer to add longs on ETH, so this time ETH liquidation amount ($199 million) exceeded Bitcoin's, with a deeper drop (24h -5.54%).
📌 How to interpret the market next & trading ideas
Market signal interpretation
1. Large short-term long liquidations will release some selling pressure in the short term but do not mean an immediate bottom or rebound
Liquidations are forced liquidations; after forced selling ends, there will be a temporary lack of concentrated selling pressure, making a small rebound likely; however, the macro bearish logic remains (rising rate hike expectations), so the rebound is likely weak and unlikely to reverse into a strong rally.
2. Focus on the two previously mentioned defensive support levels
• BTC: first defense at 81500, strong support at 80000
• ETH: first defense at 2400, strong support at 2300
ETH has already broken the first defense line at 2400 and is now testing the 2300 level; if 2300 is effectively broken, a new round of leveraged stampede will begin.
3. Small-cap privacy coins like ZEC: In a market environment where large caps are killing longs, altcoin risks are greater, downside is more likely to spiral out of control, and support levels become less reliable.
Trading ideas based on position status
🔹 If you currently hold long positions:
• No stop-loss set, heavy position: Do not blindly hold; macro bearishness has not disappeared. Once strong support is broken, a new liquidation wave will come; reduce positions first on small rebounds to control risk.
• Light long positions: Do not rush to add on rebounds; move stop-loss down below new lows and strictly control losses.
🔹 If you are short:
• Currently in the bearish realization phase; a wave of concentrated liquidations has already occurred in the short term, so it is not suitable to chase shorts!
Chasing shorts risks hitting short-term reversals like “bearish landing and oversold rebound” spikes, easily triggering stop-losses; wait for rebounds to resistance levels before looking for opportunities.
🔹 If you are out of the market:
Priority is to observe; the macro bearish CPI needs time to digest. Wait for two signals before considering entry: either price holds strong support and stops falling with sideways movement; or Fed officials signal easing and rate hike expectations cool down. Do not guess or bottom-fish.
#韩股盘中跌近8%，全球科技股集体承压
$BTC $ETH $SNDK The formula for making big money in the crypto world is something I've been thinking about more and more. By doing these 5 things well, you can basically achieve compound interest on your funds, step by step, with increasing profits. First, you have to choose the right targets. In crypto, it's easy to choose: only Bitcoin and Ethereum. Then, patiently wait for their sharp drops.
By sharp drops, I mean a decline of at least 50% from the peak, then place buy orders in batches, aiming to build a heavy position. Then hold long-term, no matter what kind of pullbacks or negative news come, just don't get off the train, firmly stay on board. Finally, when emotions are high and the market is shouting about an eternal bull market, sell in batches to lock in profits.
This cycle repeats, so there's no worry about not getting big results. In fact, the two bull markets I've experienced in the space followed this path. In 2020, the average price was 8,000, held long-term until selling at 54,000 in May 2021; in 2022, the average price was 18,000, held long-term, then sold in batches at 110,000 to 120,000 in 2025.
This time in 2026, I'm actually following a similar path: Bitcoin dropped from 126,000 to 63,000, and I started building positions in batches. But this bear market's drop was a bit too small, so I only bought two layers of positions before the big V-shaped rally. Now I can only patiently wait for opportunities to appear. It's impossible for me to chase and FOMO buy Bitcoin above 80,000. At worst, I just miss out, but missing out doesn't mean losing money. Besides, I still have 20% of my position on the train and 80% in wealth management, so my mindset is actually quite good.#TSMCOct15Earnings TSMC's Q3 revenue was actually announced a long time ago, about 46.7 billion USD, higher than the company's forecast of 44.6 to 45.8 billion USD. The financial report meeting on Thursday was not to review revenue, but the costs behind the revenue.
The first challenge is the gross margin. The Q3 forecast is from 65% to 67%, averaging 66%, down 1.7 percentage points from 67.7% in Q2, due to the 2nm capacity ramp diluting about 3 to 4 percentage points.After the US CPI data was released yesterday, US Treasury bonds initially plunged, with yields rising to near historical highs. However, as the stock market fluctuated and declined, US Treasuries instead oscillated upward, eventually closing near the day's high, forming a V-shaped reversal.
This market movement is quite interesting. The initial drop in US Treasuries was due to the CPI month-on-month exceeding expectations, which reignited market concerns about the Fed raising interest rates again soon. But the subsequent rise was more likely due to a flight-to-safety effect (i.e., the safe-haven attribute of US Treasuries returning). This also reflects the market's overall acceptance of the current yield levels (combined with recent US Treasury auction results, it is evident that primary market demand for US Treasuries is significantly improving).
The midterm election period is approaching, during which the US stock market is unlikely to perform well. Instead, AI hardware stocks are facing adjustment pressure after continuous declines, so funds are flowing into US Treasuries. Whether the Fed continues to raise rates in the short term or not will not change this capital flight to safety.
Finally, there is, of course, another possibility: when the global economy faces a recession, stock prices fall and bond prices rise, which is normal. However, there is currently insufficient evidence for this assumption (the high CPI itself is one indication of an overheating economy). #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 Nearly $200 million flowed back in a single day—Is the bull market coming back? Don't rush to celebrate yet—$BTC is reported at $83,314, $ETH at $2,496, and $SOL at $106.61; none of the three major mainstream assets have experienced a full-blown breakout rally. The ETF data for the day looks impressive: $BTC net inflow of $176 million, $ETH net inflow of $24.8 million, while $SOL saw a slight net outflow; but looking at the 7-day picture, all three remain under pressure. This is the most worth pondering contradiction right now: ETF funds are flowing in, but $BTC prices are retreating. This divergence itself is the answer. A single day of capital inflow never equals a trend reversal; it is more like a breather, not a trumpet call. What truly determines the direction is whether the funds can form sustained resonance, not just a good number on one day. Structurally, $BTC's resilience to decline is clearly stronger than $ETH and $SOL, the latter two being less elastic, indicating that funds have not yet launched a full-scale offensive. This differentiation sends a very direct signal: the current situation looks more like a consolidation during a downtrend, not the start of a new trend. Only when $ETH and $SOL follow suit can the recovery be credible; relying solely on $BTC's solo rise can only be defined as a local rebound. Tonight, the US September CPI data will be released, with core inflation exceeding expectations, and the Fed's rate hike path divergence still to be digested. Before the data release, guessing who will lead the rally is meaningless; after the data release, what really needs to be watched is whether the three major coins can increase volume in the same direction. This is the hard indicator to verify fund resonance. Opportunity Gold seems to have stabilized, but Bitcoin has gone down. Why?
Bitcoin has already broken below the lower boundary of its consolidation range first, but we can see that except for Bitcoin, most other major coins have basically broken below their recent consolidation ranges.
So Bitcoin has more followers, continuously moving down in this downtrend torrent. Although Bitcoin is still relatively strong compared to other major coins and remains high around 80,000, when all major coins roll down along with the Nasdaq, it also can't hold up.
Also, have you noticed that since the Nasdaq 100 index runs around the clock, Bitcoin and gold now tend to follow the Nasdaq 100 more closely, and have less relation to the S&P so far. The US index I watch the most is the Nasdaq 100.
Gold still has some support from national reserve funds and institutional capital, but personally, I feel that without a substantial reversal candlestick, this support will also face selling pressure, especially if the Nasdaq index continues to probe lower. $XAU $ETH I'm firmly bullish, not shorting.
2412, red close, amplitude only 0.24%, the market looks dead like a still pond. But the quieter it is, the more it feels like someone is quietly accumulating chips underneath. From 2725 smashed down, two rebounds at 2580 and 2540 both failed to hold, MA30 pressing at 2467, the structure indeed looks bad—I won't pretend otherwise. But the 2400 level has been stepped on countless times, each time pulled back, never truly broken. Today's low was 2401.37, again held close. If it were really going to collapse, it wouldn't stop exactly here every time.
Fast sharp drops and quick rebounds indicate selling pressure is being vented, not continuous dumping. The ones taking over are not retail investors; retail investors don't have the patience to repeatedly place orders at the same price.
My strategy: enter in batches between 2400-2408, add a position at a spike down to 2385, cut position size in half, lower leverage. No chasing highs, no getting impulsive over a big bullish candle. Stop loss at 2372, exit immediately if broken, no holding or averaging down—I've learned that lesson from past forced liquidations for life.
Take profits in three stages: one-third at 2440, which is the dense zone of the previous sharp drop; another third at 2467, the MA30 hurdle to watch the candle's reaction; leave the rest for 2510, if it goes up, consider it market's reward.
Is the rebound a bull trap? Possibly. But I'd rather take a small loss and stop out at support than chase shorts on a breakdown and get slapped back. Direction is bullish, pace is slow.Yesterday, Yaoyao choosing to bottom-fish at $ETH 2480 was a huge mistake, but fortunately, the stop loss at 2450 was timely, with a loss of nearly 2000u😡😡
September CPI is coming, how will crude oil and US Treasuries perform?
US Treasuries: Inflation is off the charts, US Treasuries are being sold off, and yields are soaring! A stronger dollar means pressure on the stock market, crypto market, and gold. The shadow of high interest rates weighs on the market again. As long as yields remain high, a major market rebound is unlikely.
Crude oil: Much of this inflation is driven by oil prices. On one hand, high inflation strengthens rate hikes (bearish for oil prices), on the other hand, Middle East geopolitical conflicts support oil prices, creating a contradictory market. Short term, expect high-level volatility; geopolitics remains the main variable for crude oil.
Crypto market: With rising rate hike expectations, ETH plunged straight from 2523 to 2411! BTC crashed from 8400 to 8151, and altcoins fell even harder. Do not try to bottom-fish in the near term! #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验
CPI超预期引发暴跌，下跌逻辑+防守支撑位
下跌核心原因
1. 美国9月CPI、核心CPI双双高于预期，加息预期抬升、美债收益率走高，无息加密资产估值承压；
2. BTC、ETH现货ETF持续净流出，机构资金本就在撤离，缺少买盘承接；
3. 下跌后触发连环杠杆清算，爆仓盘进一步加速砸盘；
4. ZEC属于隐私小盘币，风险偏好下行时，资金优先抛弃题材山寨，跌幅放大。
分币种防守支撑（第一防守=短线第一生命线，破位就容易加速下探；第二防守=强支撑，多重筹码密集区）
✅ BTC 比特币
• 短线第一防守：81500，短期多头第一道防线，守住这里会进入震荡磨底；
• 关键强防守：80000（整数关口+期权密集支撑）
• 破80000之后，下一目标区间：77000-78000，抛压会明显放大
✅ ETH 以太坊（弹性更大，下跌更快）
• 短线第一防守：2400
• 关键强防守：2300，这里是前期筹码集中区域
• 跌破2300，下方看2180附近，DeFi质押盘、杠杆盘集中容易踩踏
$BTC $ETH $ZEC TSMC's Q3 revenue hits a record high, what are the key points to watch in the earnings night?
TSMC will release its full Q3 earnings report and hold a briefing on October 15. According to the disclosed monthly data, Q3 revenue is about 1.49 trillion New Taiwan Dollars, a year-on-year surge of 50%, directly setting a new historical revenue record. The company previously guided a Q3 gross margin of 65%-67%.
With revenue data already confirmed, market focus shifts to whether profits can keep pace. The core driver of this high growth is AI computing demand, with Nvidia chips, ASICs, and CoWoS advanced packaging orders remaining robust, serving as the main engines driving performance.
Notably, despite the record-high revenue, TSM and xTSM stocks have already seen a pullback, as capital is preemptively trading on earnings expectations. If gross margin falls short of expectations, a sell-off triggered by "good news being priced in turning into bad news" could occur.
Tonight's earnings focus will be on gross margin, capital expenditures, and the outlook for subsequent AI orders. The strong AI market logic remains, but the stock price has already priced in most of the positive factors in the short term. Avoid blindly chasing highs and be especially cautious of volatility risks after the positive news is realized.
#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 Today $BTC is hovering around 81,500, grinding close to the 50-day moving average (about 81,100-81,200).
The four bear-to-bull turning points you mentioned do look quite similar: after breaking above the 50-day moving average, it almost always comes back to test it around 40-50 days later, with a roughly 30% gain during that period. History loves to repeat this script.
But the key difference comes afterward: • In 2015 and 2019, after the retest, it didn’t break below and then directly surged at least 50%; • In 2023, it first broke below, scared some people, then quickly recovered, and still went on to gain 50%.
At this position now, it depends on whether it wants to do the “elegant retest” like the first two cases or the “scare first then recover” version like 2023.
Recently, it dropped from 84,000-86,000, just enough to test the 50-day moving average, then bounced back. The short-term RSI is around 46, neither hot nor cold, and the short moving averages are still pressing down, a bit grinding. But the mid-term structure remains intact, with the 50-day still above the 200-day, so the overall trend is not broken.
Currently, it looks more like the “standard retest script is playing out” rather than the trend turning bearish. Whether it rallies directly or breaks down first then recovers, history offers two possibilities, and the market hasn’t chosen a side yet.
Don’t rush to open positions betting on the script; first see if it can stabilize around here. If it stabilizes, then look up to 84,000-85,000; if it breaks, then consider if it’s the 2023 pattern. This grinding here is the most patience-testing, but historically, after the grind, there’s often a good move.
(The above is pure speculation and does not constitute any advice; don’t blame me if you lose money.)01 一份很亮眼的成绩单，也带来一道更难的题 一个季度营收168亿美元，调整后实现盈利，目标估值超过2万亿美元。Claude背后的Anthropic，正在把AI公司的上市故事推向一个新量级。 据路透10月14日援引参加投资者会议的人士报道，Anthropic第三季度收入达到168亿美元。《金融时报》同日报道，公司向投资者表示当季按调整后口径盈利。这些是媒体获取的会议信息，尚不能当成公开审计财报。 看到这些数字，很容易得出一个判断：AI终于从烧钱走到了赚钱。但另一边，路透此前查阅的保密招股材料显示，公司有至少5180亿美元、跨约十年的算力与基础设施支出承诺。 我更想弄清楚的是：客户付进来的钱，能不能跑赢公司答应付出去的钱？ 这件事不仅关系一家公司的IPO，也关系我们怎样理解整条AI产业链的热闹。 02 168亿美元很重要，但别急着把它乘成未来 168亿美元是一个季度的营收，不是某个月收入乘出来的年化运行率，也不是已经拿到手的利润。对AI商业观察来说，这是很有分量的区别。 它意味着讨论终于可以更多落到付费需求上：有人愿意为模型能力买单。但收入这张成绩单，还回答不了客户用了多久、价格Are shorts becoming fuel again? (╯°□°）╯︵ ┻━┻
The harshest thing about this market isn't the drop, but the way it punishes stubbornness. Just when you accept the downtrend, the shorts get lifted; the more it falls, the braver the shorts get, and just after adding positions, the rebound knocks on the door.
Midday liquidation: 1H 5.6 million, shorts 76%; 4H 20.19 million, shorts 71%; 24H BTC 32.85 million, shorts 78.7%, ETH 63.5%. This isn't ordinary stop-loss, it's a chain short squeeze: price bounces → shorts cover → buying pushes price up → next batch forced liquidations, cycle accelerates (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧.
But don't mistake the rebound for a reversal. ETF weekly net outflow is 679 million, ETH outflow 542 million; Coinbase premium once turned negative, indicating spot buying didn't keep up, more passive derivative covering. Korean stocks fell 5.5%, CPI is at the door, volatility will only get crazier (｡•́︿•̀｡).
Now just watch the pullback: BTC 81300–82000 (400-day moving average) must hold; ETH 2480–2495, especially 2494 cannot be lost. Only if someone steps in is it real buying; if no one steps in, it's just a false fire. $BTC $ETH $ZEC ##奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点
Sister U 10.15 Thursday $ETH Strategy
Entry conditions: Rebound rises back to the 2440-2460 range, 1-hour candlestick shows a long upper shadow after a spike, rebound momentum gradually weakens, confirm stagnation before attempting short.
Stop loss position: Price effectively holds above 2480, bulls strongly counterattack, abandon short strategy and exit.
First take profit target: 2400
Second take profit target: 2350
Market logic: Last night’s CPI data exceeded expectations, Ethereum quickly plunged from the short-term high of 2529, bottoming near 2401, with a sharper decline compared to BTC. After the concentrated release of bearish power, it is currently consolidating sideways at a low level between 2420-2440, the market turning from strong to weak, in a phase of shock digestion after a big drop. The short-term overall strategy is mainly high short positions with some low buy-ins. Prioritize shorting rebounds at resistance zones to bet on a second dip, do not pre-place short orders early, wait for confirmation of stagnation candlesticks before entering to avoid short-term false breakouts and stop-loss sweeps.US September CPI year-on-year 3.7%, month-on-month 0.6%, overall in line with expectations; the real surprise is the core CPI, month-on-month 0.3%, year-on-year 2.6%, both higher than expected and rising for three consecutive months — inflation excluding oil prices is still climbing.
There are three driving layers: energy is the strongest, gasoline rose 9.1% month-on-month, contributing more than half of the increase, due to US-Iran conflict, Brent crude surpassing $100, and diesel prices hitting record highs;
Food is stable for now, but high diesel costs are transmitting, Pepsi has already raised prices; the most troublesome is the spread of core price increases, with housing, medical care, leisure, transportation, used cars, and IT goods all accelerating month-on-month, only communications declined.
Market: The US dollar index rose to 102.53, a new 18-month high; the 10-year US Treasury yield broke 5.3% intraday and closed at 5.188%; the Nasdaq fell 1.88%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 4.3% for six consecutive days, Apple rose 0.5% against the trend to become the second $5 trillion company;
Gold fell below $4100, silver dropped more than 6%. Asia-Pacific under pressure, Hang Seng Index opened down 0.8%, Hang Seng Tech fell 2.21%.
Policy: The probability of a rate hike in October jumped from 21.6% to 43.7%, but Federal Reserve officials generally say they are not in a hurry to act — long-term rates have exceeded 5%, the dollar broke 102.
Financial conditions have already tightened, and September nonfarm payrolls were only 29,000, with the previous value revised down by 60,000. The mainstream expectation: no change in October, another 25 basis points hike in December.
The key is to watch Wash’s speech in Bangkok on Thursday evening (the last window before the blackout period), September PCE and oil prices. Conclusion: data changes the pace, not the direction, the decisive factor remains oil prices. #CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大 #美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期
This morning's abnormal market movement of “gold rising, crude oil falling” can be summed up in one sentence: the market was scared by last night's US inflation data and the early morning crash of the Japanese and Korean stock markets. What everyone is now fearing is not "war," but "economic stagflation."
Last night, the US released the latest CPI inflation rate, which surged directly to 3.7%, exceeding everyone's expectations. The market's first reaction was "it's over, the Fed will raise rates again at the end of the month," causing the US dollar and US Treasury yields to soar, crushing gold prices. Gold fell more than 1.5% last night, failing to hold the $4100 level.
But why did gold rebound sharply from around $4080 to above $4140 early this morning?
This morning, the Korean stock market directly hit circuit breakers, and the Japanese stock market plunged over 2000 points. Asian institutional funds fled from chip stocks and tech stocks, and the money that came out had to find a safe place to stay. Naturally, gold, which had just fallen into a pit last night, became the first choice.
The panic from last night's rate hike has already been vented. After gold broke below $4100, long-term allocation funds and central bank buying considered the price appropriate and directly entered the market to support the price.
Prices are still rising, but high interest rates are hammering tech stocks and the real economy mercilessly. In this stagflation environment of "high prices, poor economy," stocks and industrial goods both get hit, and only gold serves as the best bulletproof vest.$SOXL has dropped to 105, but I believe the semiconductor downturn is far from over!!!
SOXL fell from 158.91 all the way down to around 105, a significant drop, but I still remain bearish through Friday.
What truly solidifies my bearish stance is not how much the price has fallen, but that the positive catalysts simply can't hold!
ASML has already signaled strong AI equipment demand, which should theoretically bring buying interest to semiconductors, yet the entire sector continues to be sold off. This shows the market is simply unwilling to continue paying the previous valuations for AI's high growth. After CPI exceeded expectations, this pressure has become even more evident.
Even if TSMC delivers strong earnings next, I don't think it will reverse the situation. The market already expects it to be strong; merely proving AI orders are sufficient is no longer enough.
Personally, I clearly remain bearish, expecting SOXL to close around 97–103 on Friday, focusing on whether there is genuine support near 100 after breaking 105.
Even if it rebounds to 114–118 on Thursday on TSMC news, as long as NVDA, AMD, AVGO, and equipment stocks don't have sustained buying, I still consider that a rebound, not a reversal.
Only if TSMC significantly exceeds expectations, PPI eases, major semiconductor weights regain sustained support, and SOXL holds above 120.83 and further recovers 127.57, will I change my bearish view.
Until then, I remain firmly on the short side!My judgment: The bottom of this round may have already passed.
$BTC is like this, and altcoins are the same.
For me, a pullback is no longer something to fear, but a time to seriously consider positioning.
Of course, this is just a personal opinion, not a definitive conclusion.
$BTC 84000 just touched and was pushed back down; once the CPI came out, it directly dropped below 82000.
September core CPI month-on-month was 0.3%, expected 0.2%; overall year-on-year was 3.7%, also higher than expected. Just this 0.1 difference pushed the probability of a rate hike at the end of October from around 20% to over 40%. Interest rates are still going up, and BTC, which yields no interest, is the first to get hit. Around the US stock market close, it hovered near 81800, ETH looked even worse, around 2430, down just over 3%.
To be clear, this wave isn’t caused by issues within the crypto circle itself, but by macroeconomic pressure holding it down. On October 7 and 8, spot ETFs saw outflows of over 700 million USD in two days, and only 170 million USD flowed back on the 13th; institutions haven’t caught their breath yet.
I think 80,000 is the critical point this round. The spike on October 8 reached near 80300 but was pulled back; most long positions’ stop losses are likely stacked below. If it holds, it will probably continue to oscillate between 80,000 and 87,000; if it breaks down with volume, the 75,000 area is not impossible. Resistance lies between 83,000 and 87,000, which it tried several times at the start of the month but failed to surpass.
Next, watch two things: daily ETF flows and the interest rate meeting on October 27-28. If officials come out hawkish before the meeting, don’t expect a decent rebound.
Be cautious with leverage; just a few days ago, over 1.1 billion USD was liquidated in one day. $BTC #美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 September CPI released, with core inflation exceeding expectations: core month-on-month +0.3% (expected 0.2%), year-on-year 2.6% (expected 2.5%). Overall year-on-year 3.7%, also higher than the expected 3.6%. However, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have finally started to flow back in; on 10/13, Bitcoin inflow was $176 million, Ethereum inflow was $24.8 million, and Ethereum ended a 10-day streak of net outflows. It is still feasible to buy at the bottom, which means that even if the correction continues, the depth will be limited, and the probability of returning to a bear market is relatively low. During this decline, contract positions increased, indicating that short positions are still being opened, so the correction may not be over. If you want to buy, buying between 75-80k is better, which also falls within the normal correction range of a bull market.
Next, watch two time points: tonight at 20:30 retail sales and PPI (Producer Price Index, consensus month-on-month about +0.5%) will be released; tomorrow morning at 11:30, Federal Reserve Chair Warsh will have a public dialogue at the IMF annual meeting, which is an important statement before the FOMC. If retail sales and PPI are also on the hot side, BTC pressure will continue.
Currently, the probability of a rate hike in October is about 54%, and the probability of at least one hike before December exceeds 95%. Crude oil rose 9.1% in a single month, and all costs are rising, so as long as oil does not fall, crypto and US stocks will not easily rise directly. $BTC $ETH $SOL There is an interesting pattern between the $BTC bear market bottom and the US midterm elections:
2014: 71 days after the election
2018: 39 days after the election
2022: 13 days after the election
Each cycle is about twenty to thirty days faster than the previous one.
The 2026 midterm election is in 3 weeks. If this pace continues, the $BTC bottom will occur before the election, not after.
This is just a projection, not a conclusion. But if it comes true, we won't have to wait until after the election to "reduce risk"; the trend might continue to rise directly.
$BTC