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The accounts of AI companies involve not only how to record revenue but also how to pay employees.
The controversy over OpenAI's revenue recognition is still being discussed. Another detail mentioned by Axios is worth noting: Anthropic's quarterly profit calculation excludes equity compensation. This is not OpenAI's profit data and cannot be used to directly compare the profits of the two companies, but it reminds me that when looking at AI investment returns, one must ask clearly which costs are deducted from the so-called profits.
Using stock to recruit employees may reduce cash outflow in the current period, but the labor provided by employees still has a cost. For shareholders, this payment method may also change their shareholding ratio. If a company adds back equity compensation to profits and later needs to spend cash on buybacks to offset dilution, that cost is merely shifted in time and accounting position, not disappeared out of thin air. Of course, whether to buy back and how much dilution occurs depends on the specific company's disclosures and cannot be generalized.
Attractive adjusted numbers can easily lead to premature celebration. After revenue growth, can computing power costs and personnel compensation be covered? Can the returns ultimately distributed to shareholders grow accordingly? These questions are more relevant to investment returns than which company has a bigger revenue headline.
I am willing to believe AI can produce profitable products. I also hope that when formal financial statements are disclosed, the differences before and after adjustments will be listed item by item. When looking at a company that may go public, readers should not have to guess costs like solving a puzzle.
#OpenAI营收口径引争议，AI投资回报受关注 81,000! Bitcoin's midnight scare, $600 million evaporated instantly, why did Wall Street suddenly 'turn hostile'?”
During the midnight period, BTC quickly dropped to around $81,000, with $600 million in long contracts liquidated in a short time. Many interpreted this as Wall Street collectively dumping and turning hostile, but it was actually a resonance of multiple factors.
On the macro level, the market was preemptively playing the US inflation data, crude oil prices rose due to geopolitical conflicts, the market worried about persistent inflation, lowered expectations for Fed rate cuts, US Treasury yields rose, and risk asset valuations came under pressure. Dollar liquidity expectations tightened, and institutional funds began reducing risk exposure. Structurally, the prior rebound had accumulated a large amount of long leverage. Midnight is the weakest liquidity window in the crypto market; the price broke the key support at $81,000, triggering a chain of forced liquidations. Liquidation selling combined with algorithmic trading continued to hammer the market; the liquidated funds were counted by the market as "market cap evaporation," which amplified the decline rather than being a one-time large sell-off by Wall Street.
On the funding side, net inflows into spot ETFs significantly shrank, institutions chose to wait and see, lacking enough buying power to absorb selling pressure. After the technical breakdown, short-term speculative funds followed the trend to flee, and panic sentiment self-reinforced.
Key clarification: It was not a unified "turn hostile" by Wall Street. Institutional funds were divided; some reduced positions to hedge, others waited for dips. The $600 million was the amount liquidated in derivatives long positions, not large-scale spot selling. The short-term sharp drop was due to expectation disturbances combined with leveraged stampede. Do not define a single correction as the end of the bull market, nor blindly treat it as a golden buying opportunity. Key focus remains on US Treasury yields, ETF fund flows, and on-chain chip movements.#利雅得机场遇袭，沙特加快陆路输油布局 The attack on Riyadh airport highlights that Saudi Arabia's domestic infrastructure remains exposed to drone and missile strikes, prompting the market to reassess the supply vulnerabilities of the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping routes. Saudi Arabia is accelerating the upgrade of its east-west land oil pipelines, with the core goal of creating alternative routes to reduce sole reliance on maritime channels, effectively building an energy "safety valve" in advance.
In the short term, the expected expansion of land pipelines will moderately suppress the geopolitical risk premium on crude oil, weakening the momentum for a unilateral surge in oil prices. However, it should be noted that the pipelines themselves are located within Saudi territory and are also susceptible to attacks, so they can only buffer but not completely eliminate Middle East supply concerns.
This news is relatively neutral for risk assets: on one hand, the supply hedge expectation eases inflation fears caused by a sharp rise in oil prices, indirectly reducing pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates further; on the other hand, the attack itself indicates that the Middle East situation remains unstable and could flare up again at any time, increasing volatility, which will cause repeated disturbances to BTC, ETH.
Key follow-up points to monitor: first, the progress of the land pipeline expansion; second, whether there will be further attacks on energy facilities. If attacks continue, the geopolitical premium will return, pushing up oil prices and inflation expectations, which is negative for high-beta assets. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Where to put your $SOL in hand can make a difference of more than five points in annual returns.
Leaving it idle in the wallet yields 0. Native staking to validators currently yields 5.22%, with an inflation issuance of 3.6049% per year. These new coins are only distributed to the staked portion, which accounts for less than 70% of the total supply; dividing these two numbers gives that rate.
If you want to be able to sell anytime, convert it into liquid staking tokens. The largest tier quotes 4.74%, several in the middle hover around 5%, and the highest reaches 5.69%. These tokens can be traded and used as collateral, but a portion of the yield is shared with issuers and validators, so the gross yield is lower.
Next is depositing into lending protocols, lending SOL to others to earn interest; the current on-chain rate is 3.99%. Slightly lower than staking, but you can withdraw anytime.
There is also a category with much higher yields, pools pairing SOL and USDC, some quoting over twenty percent, others over sixty percent. These yields are not free; when prices move unilaterally, the pool’s tokens gradually convert to the weaker side, and the paper gains are eaten back from here.
The difference among these tiers ultimately depends on what you exchange for what. Native staking offers the highest real yield, with the cost of a one- or two-day unbonding period; tokens can be sold anytime but yields are shared; lending and pools are more flexible, with extra returns coming from borrowers and price movements.
These quoted yields are listed on public yield leaderboards by pool, showing highs and lows within a day, and the numbers change when checked again a week later. Since OKX filed with the SEC to launch 63 US stocks, its layout in RWA has finally caught up a bit. Recently, it has been listing several stock contracts every day, so the decline of $OKB in the past few days hasn't been significant.
Thinking about it, it's quite bold: for compliance and long-term operation, they are willing to give up several months of golden time to capture the market.
Now the gap between OKX and $BNB in the US stock tokenization market has become apparent: the competitor ranks first in trading volume with a 60% share; OKX ranks second with a 20% share.
Moreover, on-chain, X Layer is also lagging quite a bit. I said earlier this year that RWA should primarily benefit Ethereum because many real-world assets would preferentially flow into more decentralized, safer, and more stable chains.
Unexpectedly, the competitor has risen rapidly, taking first place from the US stock perspective, while X Layer is only fifth now, with a long way to go to reach the top.
Hopefully, X Layer can catch up soon. Looking at it from another angle, maybe it's a good thing, as it means there is great growth potential, which also implies a large potential upside for $OKB ☺️Don't overthink it!
Thinking that Russia can export a large amount of diesel is simply unrealistic.
The domestic fuel supply in Russia is already tighter than in previous years, and internal demand is still rising.
Don't forget, this is even before the consecutive refinery explosion accidents occurred!Short-term (intraday to 3 days, directly affecting the BTC market)
1. Cleveland Fed President Hammack's hawkish speech: The core message is that inflation risks have not been eliminated, and the option for further rate hikes remains. BTC is very sensitive to changes in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar; hawkish expectations strengthening will directly suppress buying, making a pullback likely.
2. U.S. September CPI data to be released this Wednesday: This is the most critical short-term anchor for the current market. If CPI exceeds expectations, it will directly raise the probability of a December rate hike, bearish for BTC; a decline in inflation will release easing expectations, supporting prices.
3. Regulatory news in the Asian region (South Korea banning foreign platforms): Mainly affects risk appetite for Asian regional contract funds, which will amplify BTC contract volatility and spike probability, impacting the spot market fundamentals.
Recent volatility is high; trade cautiously, and set stop-losses properly #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 50 billion is not enough, 100 billion is needed: DeepSeek's latest round of financing is not about lacking money, but about buying into the "domestic AI industry chain" first
According to reports from Caijing and other media, DeepSeek's second round of financing plans to increase from 50 billion yuan to about 100 billion yuan, with a pre-investment valuation still pegged at 500 billion yuan; new investors include Shixi Capital, SMIC Juyuan, CPE Yuanfeng, Junlian Capital, and Geely—all "chip + vehicle + industrial capital"; existing shareholders CATL (planning to add about 10 billion yuan), Tencent, IDG, Lisi, and Shixiang are following up. DeepSeek has not officially confirmed, but this list itself is more explosive than the amount.
What Liang Wenfeng wants is not more zeros in the bank account, but to weld computing power—energy—vehicle end—storage into a network before going public:
SMIC Juyuan/Shixi = domestic chips and storage;
CATL = electricity and energy storage for training clusters;
Geely = vehicle-end large model scenarios;
Tencent = traffic, cloud, developer ecosystem. Bitcoin is repeatedly oscillating between 81,000 and 84,000, with the 80,000 mark being a significant barrier. ETFs saw a net outflow of 681.1 million USD last week, and selling pressure before the CPI data won't be light. Mainstream coins like Solana and Hedera were all dragged down by the liquidation wave, while NEAR briefly rebounded on ETF inflows but softened again. The IMF is also chiming in, saying that AI asset corrections will impact the global bond market, indicating a tight macro environment.
Outside the booth, a foreign car tried to snag a parking spot. I pressed the remote but didn’t lift the barrier, then looked down to continue watching the market.
$GTC is moving opposite to the overall market. The candlestick has stabilized above the Fibonacci 0.382 level at 0.2468, with a MACD golden cross and volume expansion, maintaining a complete bullish structure. The current price of 0.2484 is consolidating within the accumulation zone, with downside space locked. Above, between 0.255 and 0.260, there is a cluster of short liquidation positions—this is the gravity pulling the price, which will likely sweep liquidity there.
Trading strategy: buy on dips. Enter gradually between 0.2468 and 0.2485, with the first take-profit target at 0.265. After reaching it, watch volume to decide whether to hold further. Set stop-loss below 0.2430; if broken, admit the mistake and exit without holding the position. The bias is bullish; short liquidations are the fuel.
$GTC
#闪迪美光下跌，长鑫技术进展受关注
@OKX星球 Tomorrow night at 8:30 PM, the September CPI will be released, which is the most important reference before the Federal Reserve meeting on October 28.
Institutions expect that rising energy prices may push the overall CPI year-on-year from 3.4% to 3.7%, but the core CPI month-on-month growth rate may slow from 0.3% to 0.2%. This combination is very critical: overall inflation is driven up by oil prices, but core inflation is cooling down. If the core CPI really slows, it indicates that price pressures have not spread, and the market will strengthen expectations for a pause in rate hikes.
However, officials are not easing. Cleveland Fed President Harker clearly stated on October 12 that inflation pressures remain broad and support further rate hikes. CME data shows the market expects about a 79.5% probability of rates remaining unchanged in October. There is a large divergence between hawkish officials and market pause expectations.
This divergence is the source of volatility tomorrow night. If the overall CPI is relatively hot but core cools, the market will lean toward pause expectations, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields will fall back, and BTC has a chance to rebound and test 83,500 to 84,500. If both overall and core exceed expectations, the probability of a rate hike in October will rise again, BTC will be under pressure, with support at 81,500 to 82,000, and if broken, look to 80,000.
BTC is now near 82,000, up 0.8%. Many defenders are stacked near 80,000, so this position has short-term support. But the direction is not yet chosen; before the data is released tomorrow night, do not bet heavily.
$ZEC $BTC $ETH 。#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 Crypto exchanges are all rushing to connect with US stocks, increasing liquidity pressure. BingX launched over 7,000 US stocks and ETFs today, with orders routed through Alpaca; Bybit followed suit yesterday. Leading platforms are directly integrating US stock access into crypto accounts, allowing funds to flow back and forth between stocks and crypto. Coupled with high interest rates and persistently high US Treasury yields, the substitution effect of equity assets on high-risk crypto assets is growing stronger, with high Beta coins being hit first.
BTC is currently at $83,704, near the lower end of the range. $83,000 is a key level; breaking it could lead directly to $80,000. Resistance is at $86,000, which needs strong volume to reclaim to shake off short-term bearishness.
ETH is at $2,525, falling more than BTC, with the exchange rate still weakening. $2,500 is the next defense line; breaking it could see $2,400. Rebound resistance is at $2,650.
ZEC is at $1,228, down 8.61% in 24 hours. While mainstream coins stabilize, it declines on its own as funds withdraw from privacy concepts and other fringe narratives. This kind of low liquidity often results in pullbacks several times larger than the overall market, so chasing highs or bottoms requires caution.
Exchanges bringing US stocks into crypto accounts is just the beginning of fund diversion; with a weak market, defending support is more important than chasing rebounds.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ Is it still time to roll the position now? I really regret it!
Seeing ZEC's big bearish candle directly smashing through 1162, my heart is truly bleeding.
It's not because it fell, but because I hate myself!
Clearly, when it was above 1300, I was sure it couldn't go higher, so why didn't I dare to be bolder and roll the position?
Now looking at the 1354% profit in my account, others are envious, but I feel only regret.
In this bearish trend, I got some gains, but because of fear, I couldn't get the fattest piece!
Why am I sure this drop isn't over yet?
Check the latest fundamentals, ZEC's NU7 upgrade plan has raised concerns, possibly disabling v4 transactions.
Privacy coins fear protocol instability the most, which directly shakes their technical foundation!
The main players just used this news to wipe out those retail investors who were shouting "bullish quick recovery."
Look at the 4-hour chart: from 1384 down to 1112, then rebounded to 1349, now turning down again to 1162.
This is not bottom building; it's the main players repeatedly pumping and dumping, tricking hopeful bulls into being slaughtered one wave after another.
Now retail traders are scared and rushing to short, the long ratio plummets, but this precisely shows the real panic selling is not over yet.
The major trend has completely turned bearish
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ $BTC pulled back from 81,033 to 83,700, just 0.3% shy of the opening price; $ETH bounced from 2,409 to 2,532 but didn’t reach back to 2,560, with resistance at 2,580 like a wall; $SOL rose from 101.63 to 108.56, still 3% short of 112.19. When funds face uncertainty, the first reaction is always to retreat to BTC.
The macro environment hasn’t eased: Harker hawkishly stated that inflation has spread from energy to AI infrastructure and electricity, with a rate hike already in September and nearly 88% probability of another in December; CPI is due Wednesday. On the ETF side, BTC saw an outflow of 679 million in the first week, ETH has been bleeding for 10 consecutive days, and ETHA had a weekly outflow of 477 million—BTC is being picked up, but ETH is truly bleeding.
So this is a BTC-led recovery, not a return of risk appetite. Focus on three things: BTC holding above 84,360 (a volume-light surge still needs to retest 82,800–83,000); ETH reclaiming 2,580 (losing 2,536 would escalate the pullback); SOL breaking through 113. Only when all three move together can it be considered diffusion; if only BTC runs alone, it’s a flight to safety; if BTC falls below 83,000, this recovery is discounted.
SOL’s quick bounce is a high Beta instinct, not strength—real strength is whether it can recover lost ground.
#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 $ETH Woke up to find the market completely flipped.
BTC plunged deeply, pulling back from 80961 to 83574, and Ethereum bounced from 2407 to 2523.
But first, look at one data point: yesterday, both BTC and ETH ETFs saw simultaneous net outflows.
Here’s the question: institutions are withdrawing, yet prices are making a V-shape recovery. Who’s driving this rebound?
The answer isn’t hard to guess. It’s short sellers covering their positions after liquidations, retail investors bottom-fishing, and after fees are washed out, a lightened position moving forward.
This rebound fueled by these three types of money shares a common trait: it comes fast but lacks staying power. Without institutional money on the table, the table isn’t stable. I’ve seen this kind of V many times; seven out of ten times it’s short covering.
So don’t shout reversal just because you see a V. My measure remains the same: one day is just stepping away, continuous days mean retreat. The same goes for reversals — a single V is emotion; real money returns only if ETFs continue inflows tomorrow.
Tomorrow night at 8:30 PM there’s CPI data, and Hawkish comments this morning said rate hikes will be faster and more frequent. If CPI blows up again, tonight’s V will be a false signal.
My own discipline hasn’t changed: no chasing deep V’s, wait to see if the pullback holds before watching further. If this is a real reversal, one more day won’t matter. If it’s a fake rebound, those chasing will just hand a trade to the market makers.
What do you think? Is this deep V a short-covering fake rally or the start of a reversal?
#BTC and ETH spot ETFs see simultaneous outflows, is institutional demand weakening? $ETH $SNDK #Semiconductor sector sees concentrated sell-off, South Korea’s KOSPI drops over 6% $SNDK $SKHY $MU Why are they bearish? 🔥🔥🔥
First, remember one thing: stock prices speculate on expectations, not the present.
If you check the news now, you can still see NAND and DRAM spot prices rising, which is a fact; but the capital is already thinking ahead about the future story.
The storage sector is weakening, and there are several core concerns:
First, worries that there are no big buyers to support the bottom! Previously, Samsung and SK Hynix propped up stock prices with massive buybacks, but the market expects that money is running out soon.
Second, concerns about overcapacity! Global manufacturers are planning expansions, and with breakthroughs in domestic high-end storage, the market is worried in advance whether supply will increase in a year or two, causing the cycle's heat to gradually cool down.
Third, expectations for AI have lowered! OpenAI's latest revenue is not as exaggerated as rumored online, so capital is starting to consider: will the cloud providers' frantic storage hoarding slow down a bit?
The previously blind optimistic premium is being gradually withdrawn by the market, and the overall trend going forward is down. Sister Xi will notify you here about the specific entry points 👇👇👇STRK at $0.086, do you dare to bottom-fish?
It took only 4 days to surge from 0.05 to 0.126, then it crashed back to 0.086 in two days. Everyone is shouting "L1 + quantum resistance takeoff," but with unlocking the day after tomorrow and CPI tomorrow—are you buying the bottom or halfway up the mountain?
Let's look at the surface first: a normal pullback after a sharp rise, daily chart still above the moving average, RSI just over 60, not oversold.
In the past month, STRK doubled, up 65% in 7 days, hitting 0.126 on October 11, a nearly 10-month high. Then on the 12th, a big bearish candle smashed it down to just above 0.08, a 30% drop in one day. Today it’s still down 14%-18% in 24 hours, ranging between 0.082 and 0.107.
The candlestick tells you: 0.086 is exactly the 50% retracement level between the starting point 0.048 and the high 0.126. The daily EMA20 (0.06) and EMA50 (0.047) are intact, the big structure is not broken. All technical analysts are shouting: 50% retracement is a golden pit, buy it!
But I want to ask you:
Have you ever seen a "normal pullback" that is the first high-volume long bearish candle after a sharp rally, and unlocking happens the day after tomorrow?
First thing: L1 narrative is just a "consideration"
On October 8 at Token2049, StarkWare’s Eli Ben-Sasson said: they are considering spinning off from Ethereum L2 to become an L1, aiming to be the first quantum-resistant network by 2027.
The market priced this statement directly. STRK surged from 0.05 to 0.126 in a few days.
But note: this is "considering," no governance approval, no migration timeline, no mainnet launch date.
In plain language:
The project says "I might do something big in 2027," and the market treats it as "already done."
On-chain activity and fee revenue lag far behind the price increase. This rally is a valuation re-rating, not a fundamental change. 0.12 already overextends the story.
What does "buy the rumor, sell the fact" mean? This is it.
Second thing: 127 million tokens unlock on October 15, selling pressure will be amplified by leverage
The day after tomorrow, October 15, about 127 million STRK will unlock, accounting for 3.4% of circulation, roughly over ten million dollars at current price.
Sounds small?
But look at the current market structure: 24-hour volume is 300-400 million dollars, close to market cap. This is not a slow bull, it’s leverage and short-term trading.
After the sharp rally, contract positions are crowded, funding rates are positive, many longs.
At this time, even selling just over ten million can trigger a cascade of liquidations.
The negative is not big, but at the wrong time, it’s a nuclear bomb.
Third thing: no macro tailwind, CPI is tomorrow
BTC is oscillating between 82,000-84,000 USD, spot ETFs saw significant outflows last week. The 10-year US Treasury yield is 5.2%, liquidity is very unfriendly to high-beta altcoins.
Tomorrow, October 14, is the US CPI release.
The Fed already raised rates once in September, the market is wavering between "pause in October, raise again in December." If CPI beats expectations, volatile coins like STRK will be the first to be cut.
Individual narratives can run independently for a few days, but unlocking day overlapping with CPI leaves very little room for error.
Bull vs. bear, you decide
On one side:
L1 + quantum resistance narrative, big imagination space for 2027
Daily chart still above EMA20/EMA50, big structure intact
Protocol v0.14.4, mobile proof, staking vault, long-term story intact
0.086 is exactly 50% retracement, technical analysts see this as the decisive zone
On the other side:
L1 is just "consideration," no governance approval or timeline
127 million tokens unlock on October 15, leverage crowded
CPI tomorrow, US Treasury 5.2%, BTC ETF outflows
On-chain activity and fees lag far behind price
FDV based on 10 billion total supply is close to 900 million USD, not cheap
Key level 0.086, resistance above at 0.100 is the lifeline, support below at 0.082 is the critical point.
Resistance above: 0.088-0.090 → 0.093-0.096 → 0.100-0.103 (round number + crash start) → 0.120-0.127 (previous high)
Support below: 0.082 (24h low, break accelerates) → 0.074-0.078 (61.8% retracement) → 0.065-0.068 → 0.050-0.055 (last defense of this bull run)
Daily chart is bullish, hourly chart bearish. Typical large-scale uptrend intact, small-scale distribution ongoing.
Trading strategy
Short term (before unlocking, before October 15):
Default to wait and see, or only short on rebounds, do not chase longs.
0.082 is today’s critical point. If 1-hour candle can’t reclaim it, next target is 0.074-0.078, weaker target 0.065.
Rebound to 0.093-0.096, if volume doesn’t support and there’s a long upper wick again, reduce position or short, stop loss above 0.100.
Only a 4-hour volume close above 0.100 means the dump was bought back, then look at 0.110/0.120. Before that, treat all rebounds as escape waves.
On unlocking day and after:
If on the 15th it dumps to 0.074-0.078 or even 0.065, and BTC doesn’t break down, small position can try to catch a rebound, stop loss 4%-5% below entry low, target first 0.088, then 0.096.
If unlocking day doesn’t drop and directly breaks above 0.100, it means selling pressure was absorbed by spot, then follow up, don’t guess early.
If daily closes below 0.050, this L1 narrative trade ends, back to bear market consolidation, don’t hold.
Positioning iron rules:
Keep total perpetual risk to a very small part of your account, single loss limit 1%-2% of net value.
Currently funding rate is positive, contract positions high, longs crowded, prioritize preventing spikes, don’t use high leverage to "bottom-fish halfway up the mountain" at 0.086.
STRK now is like ARB in 2025—
L2 leader, narrative upgrade, grand ecosystem, everyone thinks "this time is different."
What happened?
Unlock dump, narrative falsified, price halved from highs again and again.
In crypto, after a coin doubles, any "good news" might just be fireworks to unload.
$BTC $ETH $STRK Standard Chartered’s RLUSD custody announcement matters less as a product launch than as evidence of institutional plumbing being assembled. Trading and collateral plans still depend on testing and approval, while FASB consultation shows accounting treatment remains in development. Adoption may hinge on these operational layers, not branding alone.
#StandardCharteredRLUSD #pons has been continuously declining, when will it finally rise?
First, let's talk about why it has been falling continuously (not a single negative factor, but four overlapping ones):
1. The overall Robinhood Chain heat has cooled down: On-chain DEX trading volume dropped from a peak of $3.51 billion on September 4 to $1.21 billion now, a 65.5% decrease.
2. Platform revenue collapsed, insufficient "ammunition" for buybacks: Pons' daily revenue fell from over $2 million on September 5 to about $72,000, a 96% drop.
The price logic of PONS is "80% of revenue used for buyback and burn." Without revenue, the buying pressure disappears. The team also admitted that the burn rate was not adjusted in time and the claiming process was not fully decentralized. They are upgrading the contract; the new mechanism is to claim once every 7 days and use all proceeds for buyback and burn.
3. Negative events in the ecosystem: On September 28, it was exposed that there were consecutive rug pulls on Robinhood Chain, with the same group linked to 53 token issuances and cashing out about $18.43 million in two months;
At the same time, Robinhood CEO reduced holdings by 375,000 shares, and Cathie Wood's ARKK sold about 152,000 shares, with HOOD stock price dropping from 127.42 to 108.8.
4. Competition and diversion: Uniswap's Pools.trade entered the same track with zero fees, with issuance volume exceeding Pons on the first day; meanwhile, funds were diverted to the recovering Solana ecosystem.
When will it rise? Watch these 4 signals, more useful than watching K-lines:
Whether platform daily revenue can rebound: This is the only real source of buying pressure. From $72,000 moving towards $500,000 or $1 million, buybacks can support the price.
Weekly burn volume after the new buyback mechanism is implemented: Currently, 32% of total supply has been burned. After the upgrade, the weekly burn amount is a verifiable hard metric.
Liquidity realization from exchange listings: On October 8, Coinbase, Upbit (KRW/BTC/USDT), and Bithumb launched listings concentratedly, but this has not yet been reflected in the price. Next, watch if their trading volumes can pick up.
HOOD stock price and BTC environment: PONS has weak correlation with the overall market, mainly depends on its own fundamentals, but HOOD is an emotional anchor. $PONS
What truly determines whether it can rise back is whether the issuance heat of Robinhood Chain can revive — without this, relying solely on buyback and burn is hard to withstand selling pressure.Macro inflation expectations are heating up, putting pressure on risk assets, with Wednesday's CPI as the focus.
When the US stock market crashed, $BTC also softened. Current price is 82.1K, after a push to 84.2K last night was pressed back, down over 2% intraday. Bulls lack momentum after the rally, and bears have returned to apply pressure. The ratio of large holders' longs to shorts has steadily declined; many bulls have exited, but bears don't hold much either, so the drop isn't deep, with bears slightly dominant. Be cautious about going long on BTC in the short term. Don't rush, wait for the CPI.
On-chain: ETFs had a net inflow of 127 coins yesterday (about 10.49 million), turning positive for the day, but still a weekly outflow of 8,538 coins (about 704 million), showing no sustained direction from institutions. Mid-sized whales increased holdings by 86,702 coins over three weeks, the highest since April, while super whales have been selling for three consecutive months. The largest holders are accumulating, not withdrawing. Exchanges saw inflows of 11,593 coins over three days, but a net outflow of 28,599 coins over 30 days, with reserves around 2.67 million coins, at a cyclical low. Supply is shrinking, buying demand is insufficient, and there is significant divergence.$BTC was at 81,500 this morning, still at 82,400 at 7 o'clock, with Asian sell-offs continuously hitting, dropping as low as 81,200. Open interest is 93,200 contracts, previously nearly 100,000, so quite a few have been washed out, but the funding rate is still positive, indicating that leveraged liquidations are not over yet.
In the short term, to recover losses, it depends on whether BTC can hold above 84,200, not just bounce up and fall back down. Also, CPI should not push US Treasury yields and the dollar higher again, or else macro pressure will return.
Right now, don't try to guess the bottom; just see if anyone is willing to keep buying at 80,000.
The macro environment is also very pressured: the 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.36%, the highest since 2002, with money being drained out. ETFs had a net outflow of 679 million from October 5-9, with 485 million outflow on the 7th alone. Trading volume is also low, averaging 6.8 billion on the 7th, less than 90% of trading days since 2024. Prices rose but volume did not follow; retail investors are inactive, and ETFs are still seeing outflows. The problem is not too much selling, but insufficient buying strength.
Looking at the liquidation heatmap, there are potential long liquidations of over 100 million near 83,000, and another batch around 82,100-82,200. On the upside, there are 250 million short liquidations between 84,600-84,750, so a little spark in the spot market could trigger a short squeeze. #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 $SNDK $SKHYNIX $MU storage stocks are starting to drop again. On October 12, SanDisk fell 5.97%, Micron dropped 3.88%, and Samsung and SK Hynix also followed suit. In the past 7 trading days, 6 days were down, and the sector has entered a weak consolidation phase.
The core logic behind the decline is not that AI demand has disappeared. It is that the market is beginning to reassess the future supply and demand landscape. ChangXin Memory just disclosed progress on the new generation 4F² DRAM architecture and plans to launch server memory products by the end of the year. The mass production capability has not yet been verified, but expectations have already been set. If ChangXin really takes off, the storage capacity pattern will change between 2027 and 2028, and the price increase logic will need to be recalculated.
Additionally, Samsung and SK Hynix's large-scale buybacks are nearing completion, and foreign investors are reducing their holdings. The sector rose too much earlier, so even a slight disturbance causes profit-taking to exit.
The impact on crypto is indirect. Storage stocks falling cools AI hardware sentiment, risk appetite contracts, and Bitcoin also comes under pressure. But Bitcoin's main contradictions remain U.S. Treasury yields and CPI; storage issues are not a directional switch. #ZEC跻身前十，机构化进程提速 Don't chase BTC yet, and don't rush to sell either. $BTC
On the afternoon of October 13, spot price was about $83,861, almost flat in 24 hours. Today's low was 81,033, high was 84,166. It fell below 81,000 overnight but pulled back, this is a rebound after deleveraging, not a new upward trend.
The daily chart is still weak. The 5-day moving average is 83,017, price just stood above it; the 10-day moving average is 83,801, and the 20-day moving average is 84,018, both pressing overhead, MACD remains bearish. Currently, the range is 81,000 to 84,200, with real resistance at 86,000, which was the level not held in early October.
The contract explains why it could pull back today: 24-hour turnover is about $6.95 billion, open interest about $2.49 billion, funding rate only 0.003%. The whole network had about $800 million liquidations in 24 hours, nearly 90% were long positions. The funding rate is not hot, longs have not re-entered aggressively.
Spot ETFs are still seeing outflows this month, about $390 million net outflow in the first 7 trading days. Oil prices and US Treasury yields remain high, and tomorrow is the US September CPI. If data is strong, 81,000 will be tested again; if data is weak, there is a chance to reach 86,000.
For holders, 84,200 to 86,000 is selling pressure; if the daily close can't reclaim 84,000, don't add more. For non-holders, don't chase at 83,800, wait for a pullback to 81,000. If the daily close falls below 80,000, the rebound is invalidated, next support is 76,000. Only if the daily close stands above 86,000 and holds, can it be considered a trend reversal. Until then, any rise should be treated as a rebound.
This is just a market observation, not a trading advice.Many people think they are trading in the same market, but in fact BTC, ETH, and ZEC each exist in completely different parallel universes. The rules, players, and survival laws are all different.
$BTC Universe: Pricing power is in the hands of institutions here. ETFs, corporate treasuries, and sovereign wealth funds are the main players; they focus on US Treasury yields, the US dollar index, and global liquidity. Market fluctuations are driven by macro factors, and retail investors are merely passive recipients. In this universe, the most profitable strategy is "allocating alongside institutions" rather than frequent trading. BTC's price movements are the result of institutions voting on the credit of the US dollar.
$ETH Universe: A technical testing ground for developers and protocol layers. The core players here are core developers, L2 teams, and DeFi protocols. Prices are driven by technical upgrades, staking yields, and value capture ability. Retail investors in this universe are most easily misled by "technical narratives," because technological progress does not equal price appreciation. The iron rule in this universe is: only when upgrades change the supply-demand structure is it worth betting on.
$ZEC Universe: A refuge for privacy purists. The players here are privacy geeks, quantum-resistant pioneers, and regulatory arbitrageurs. Prices are driven by scarcity narratives and trust games. Due to the lack of institutional channels, liquidity is extremely poor and volatility is very high. In this universe, holding spot positions dead-still may be consumed by liquidity; quick in and quick out is the way to survive. #半导体板块集中抛售，韩国KOSPI跌超6%
[The AI reckoning has finally begun, and the South Korean stock market has collapsed,]
South Korea's KOSPI plunged more than 6% intraday today, with core AI chain stocks like Samsung Electronics $SAMSUNG and SK Hynix $SKHY being directly hammered, as foreign capital withdrew on a large scale. On the surface, it looks like a South Korean stock crash, but the market may actually be trading not just Korea, but whether the recent AI investment frenzy is truly worth it.
In recent months, semiconductors and AI infrastructure have been the main focus of capital concentration. The problem is, after stock prices have risen too fast, the market starts to ask a new question: can these massive capital expenditures really be recouped with profits of the same scale in the future? Once this expectation loosens, the first assets to be sold are always those with the largest gains.
Can the AI sector continue to enjoy high valuations? If capital begins to withdraw from AI growth stocks, high-risk assets like Crypto will very likely be repriced together.
Of course, the market might just be taking profits. What follows depends on whether US semiconductor stocks can stop falling and whether capital flows back. If it's just a price drop, the story hasn't changed; if doubts about AI returns begin, then it's not just a one-day market issue.CPI lands, is the script for $BTC and ETH always the same?
Brothers, does the K-line on CPI release night always make you question life? Clearly, the core CPI exceeded expectations, yet $ETH can rally 6 points in an hour. Don’t rush to shout "all bad news is out"; that bullish candle is actually a short squeeze, not new money entering.
The essence of CPI’s impact on the crypto world is an interest rate expectation game. For every 0.1% increase in core CPI month-over-month, the probability of a rate hike jumps from 70% to 90%. But the market isn’t dumb; the recent sell-off has already priced in hawkish sentiment, so the data release actually triggers short covering.
For this week’s October 14 CPI, my judgment:
If the overall CPI rises to 0.6% due to oil prices but the core is only 0.2%, the market will likely first kill the bulls then reverse sharply. The 83,300 level on BTC is a watershed; only a solid break above can challenge 85,000; if 82,500 breaks, 80,000 is in sight. ETH is more fragile, historically falling more than BTC.
The strategy is simple: don’t take sides before the data release. For hot CPI, wait and watch for a sell-off first; for cold CPI, follow the momentum. The high point of the first 15-minute candle after the data release is the real confirmation signal of direction.
Did you profit or get cut in the last CPI run?
#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息
#BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ $ZEC used to lead the pack, now it falls without rising—haven't you noticed this flavor yet?
Brothers, no need for me to hype how strong ZEC was before, it gained over 700% in a year, Grayscale ETF was pumping in funds crazily, shorts were trampled pushing it up. Back then, whenever someone mentioned ZEC, the group shouted "King of Privacy."
And now? The wind has stopped, the pig has fallen. Grayscale ZCSH saw a net outflow of nearly $59 million in a week, institutions are running. When Bitcoin and Ethereum falter, who cares about privacy or not, running first is the priority.
Some say the "819 whale" increased their ZEC position, following the big players is always right. Brother, can the big players withstand tens of millions in floating losses? Can you? Whale accumulation is not a buy signal; they might be averaging down, and if you rush in, you're just a scapegoat.
The market is honest too: when the market is up, it drags; when the market turns down, it falls faster than anyone else, dropping over 10% in 24 hours at most. This already shows it lacks the confidence to run an independent rally and basically follows the mainstream's lead.
Trading strategy: don't chase longs; if it rebounds to resistance but can't break through, short it, set stop loss above the previous high, target to follow the downtrend. If you want to bottom-fish, wait for the market to stabilize and ZEC to stand firm on its own. Catching it now is likely to get you burned. #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 The most dangerous link is always the high leverage of altcoins. Have you noticed that in this round of decline, the most painful losses are never in BTC? I saw someone sharing their positions, holding four positions all the way. A 50x long position on ETH opened at 2661 is now at 2421, with an unrealized loss of 1821U, a return rate of -450%. A long position on BTC at 83669 is now at 81304, losing 441U, -141%. The worst is ZEC, bought at 1316, now at 1146, with an unrealized loss of 1037U, -258%. The four positions combined have lost nearly 3300U. I stared at these numbers for a long time. What really concerns me is not the loss itself, but the distribution of the losses. BTC only dropped less than 3 points, ETH dropped just over 9 points, and ZEC evaporated 13 points directly. The same market, the same direction, but the results differ by four to five times. This is not a matter of luck; this is the answer that capital preference writes on the market. What is the market trading? It is trading certainty premium. BTC has the ETF channel, institutional support, and macro narratives backing it, so there are buyers when it falls. ETH is stuck between upgrade expectations and actual demand; its narrative is not strong enough, so it falls with the market but does not rise with it. And old altcoins like ZEC rely on sentiment support; once risk appetite shrinks, buying disappears instantly, and there is no buffer when it falls. Putting 50x leverage in such a structure is not bravery; it is entrusting your life to the most fragile link. There is also a bullish path. If CPI and PPI data do not explode and rate hike expectations ease, BTC stabilizes at the 80,000 level, funds will first flow back to the mainstream,I thought my defenses against Bitcoin and Ethereum were strong enough, but then came another ZEC.
After being crushed by both bulls and bears on BTC and ETH, repeatedly stabbed and tormented until mentally exhausted, I thought I had developed nerves of steel.
But then I looked at ZEC's trend and realized this is what true psychological torment looks like.
Only this time, the blade is cutting towards the bulls.
Let's analyze the logic behind why ZEC's current downtrend is far from over:
The fundamental logic is completely shaken. The risk of ZEC's upgrade has erupted, with the planned NU7 upgrade in November potentially disabling v4 transactions.
For privacy coins, the underlying protocol is the lifeblood. Now that lifeblood is facing turmoil, directly triggering panic selling.
Once the technical moat leaks, a valuation of several thousand dollars is just a castle in the air.
Looking back at my old short position from 1593 to now, a floating profit of +1152% looks great, but only I know the psychological torment endured along the way.
The forced liquidation is far away at 2197, and a margin rate close to 3000% is my confidence to watch coldly.
As long as no extreme macro black swan events occur, I am set to take the profits from this trend.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 Why is the $SNDK $SKHY $MU storage sector continuously declining? How far will it fall?
The biggest trigger for this drop was Michael Burry publicly increasing his short position on the storage sector 💥
He specifically named Micron: the storage rally has been too strong, and the market has mistaken short-term shortages and price hikes as "big profits for several years to come"; once major manufacturers expand production and supply increases, the cycle is likely to turn, and stock prices will sharply correct.
The day after the news, on September 23, the storage sector (SNDK, MU, SKHY) collectively opened lower and plunged, marking the starting signal of this round of decline.
At the end of September, some negative news emerged one after another:
1. [Samsung + SK Hynix's nearly $40 billion stock buyback ended early] 💥
The market gradually realized: this market support fund is ending early, with no continuous buying to support; foreign investors began to withdraw from the Korean storage leaders, and the sentiment spread to US stocks SNDK and Micron.
2. Another major news is from ChangXin.
[ChangXin Storage announced a major breakthrough in next-generation 4F² DRAM architecture] directly targeting the previously US-Korea monopolized high-margin AI server DRAM market, with ChangXin's lower costs, this is a significant impact on Micron, SanDisk, and Hynix 💥
The market started to frantically discuss: "How long can price hikes continue? Will there be oversupply in 2027?"
Institutions are still raising Q4 contract price hike expectations, but stock prices are falling.
Because capital is starting to calculate: manufacturers are planning expansion over the next two years; the current boom might lead to a concentrated release and supply-demand reversal in 2027?
Cycle peak anxiety is the core industry logic throughout this round of decline!
3. Dragging down the entire AI hardware chain and indirectly collapsing storage is [AI-side news] 💥
As long as AI demand expectations are doubted, storage is the first to be affected.
OpenAI's annual revenue is below the previously circulated market expectation of 70 billion, only close to 50 billion.
On October 8, when the news came out, the entire semiconductor, AI hardware, and storage sectors collectively plunged again.
4. Trading crowding and profit-taking are already heavy
Having risen steadily since mid-year, storage is one of the most profitable branches in the AI sector, with many chips having huge unrealized gains; once the wind changes even slightly, a "who runs first benefits" stampede effect easily occurs, causing more stop-loss orders to emerge as prices fall.
So this time it's not that the industry collapsed, but valuations are being pulled back from exuberance! Sister Xi continues to be bearish! Looking at storage stocks today, SK Hynix directly dropped about 10%, SanDisk in the US market fell nearly 6% yesterday, and Western Digital also dropped 2.6%. To be honest, this wave can't just blame US Treasury bonds and the dollar; what really deserves attention is that the market is starting to worry about how long the competition in the storage industry and AI investments can last. Recently, ChangXin Memory announced progress in higher-density DRAM technology and plans to launch a new generation of server memory by the end of the year. Once the news came out, the market worried that competition would intensify in the future and that storage manufacturers would not find it so easy to maintain high profits. So I believe the market has already priced in the expectation of intensified future competition. Another layer of pressure comes from AI; previously, the market's expectations for AI storage demand were too high, and now there is concern about whether the investments can be sustained, making valuations vulnerable to a hit first. Therefore, I am short-term bearish on the storage sector but not fully bearish in the mid-term, after all, the demand for AI infrastructure has not been proven to have weakened yet, and I want to judge whether there is a substantial weakening later through specific data.Brothers, this $W roller coaster, those chasing highs are still standing guard at the peak, while the shorts have already gotten off early counting their money.
WUSDT short position entered at 0.02375, current price 0.019353, floating profit +18.53U, return rate +55.51%. Yesterday it was pulled from 0.017 to 0.0317, an 86% increase in one day. Many shouted "cross-chain leader taking off" and rushed in, but a long upper shadow candle buried them all.
Why continue to be bearish?
First, the capital outflow is faster than expected. 24-hour contract turnover is 892 million USD, looks lively, but it's all short-term hot money, withdrawing after the spike, no sustained buying support.
Second, the October 16 unlock hangs overhead. About 58.33 million W tokens will be unlocked, accounting for 0.9% of circulation, the market has priced this in advance, and the whales just used this rally to sell off.
Third, the order book shows B 68% vs S 32%, heavy buy orders but price can't move up, a typical support trap to lure longs, retail investors catch the falling knife.
Trading idea: continue holding the short, set stop loss above 0.023, first target 0.017, if broken look at 0.015. Don't rush to bottom fish, wait for the unlock to land and volume to shrink and stabilize before considering.
$BTC $ETH #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 Judging from the timing and pattern of the adjustment, I tend to believe this wave of correction is not over yet. Moreover, the probability of an interest rate hike in October is still so low. Normally, CPI/PPI data would push the rate hike probability up, and if that really happens, the drop would be even more severe.
If Bitcoin can return to around 75k, only then would I consider it a good bottom-fishing opportunity. The three major storage coins also need to drop a bit more to stabilize.
If this is the scenario, it probably means the US stock market continues to fall, causing large institutions to sell Bitcoin to cover margin calls, triggering a chain reaction of declines. Ultimately, only policy support can stabilize the market.The literal meaning of papertrade is "paper hand." The protocol has been out for several days, and the phrase "mining as long as there is a loss" has always been blocking the view, making me think I've seen it before and that it's a pretty ordinary idea. But after a detailed look this morning, I suddenly realized there's more to it—no wonder Blue Fox teacher @lanhubiji personally commented a few words. Let's first discuss a few questions together: 1. How many participant roles are there in this project? 2. What is the most difficult part of designing a project? 3. Why doesn't papertrade directly do LP deposits, so that retail LPs can also participate? With these questions in mind, let's carefully go through the project (long text warning). 1. What is Papertrade? Papertrade is a fair launch, fully on-chain perpetual contract exchange deployed on the EVM layer of Hyperliquid. Users do not match with others nor trade with external market makers; instead, they directly bet against the protocol's own USDC liquidity pool (called Martingaler LP). The price fully depends on the BBO mid (best bid and offer midpoint) of the Hyperliquid order book, read in real-time through precompiles, thus claiming zero slippage, no funding fees, no traditional notional fees, supporting up to 1000x leverage, currently mainly trading BTC and ETH. The unique source of LP (coming from traders' losses) is the origin and also the mostLast night's deep V market was highly volatile.
If you got the direction right, you still made a profit this round.
Both BTC and ETH formed a V. And there was also some W?
Many liquidations occurred during the deep V market.
Let's take a look at the liquidation data. It's probably quite scary.
Looking at the market, long positions were mainly liquidated.
According to the latest liquidation dashboard data, the crypto market experienced intense leverage cleaning in the past 24 hours. Overall, the total liquidation amounts for the two major mainstream coins, BTC and ETH, remain high, and in short time frames (4 hours and 1 hour), they show a highly consistent directional pattern—short position liquidations dominate, indicating a strong short squeeze rebound recently.
BTC Liquidation Data
1-hour liquidation: 2,630,700 U
4-hour liquidation: 17,897,100 U
12-hour liquidation: 150,000,000 U
24-hour liquidation: 190,000,000 U
ETH Liquidation Data
1-hour liquidation: 249,800 USDT
4-hour liquidation: 10,695,400 U
12-hour liquidation: 150,000,000 U
24-hour liquidation: 180,000,000 U
Data Comparison and Analysis
From the total liquidation amounts, BTC and ETH are very close at the 24-hour and 12-hour levels. Within 24 hours, BTC's total liquidation is 190 million USDT, ETH's total liquidation is 180 million USDT, differing by only 10 million USDT.
It suddenly feels like a directional move is about to happen $ZEC ZEC's previously outstanding market rally has temporarily paused!
Everyone knows how strong it was before, achieving over 700% in a year, fueled crazily by Grayscale ETF inflows and a short squeeze.
But now the tide has turned: Grayscale ZCSH saw a net outflow of nearly $59 million in a week, institutional funds are fleeing; when Bitcoin and Ethereum falter, who still cares about privacy narratives.
Although the "819 whale" also increased their ZEC holdings, big players can withstand tens of millions in unrealized losses, so let's not treat the whale as a buy signal.
Looking at the market, it's quite straightforward: ZEC now typically follows the market down but not up; when the market is slightly up, it drags its feet, and when the market turns down, it falls faster than anyone else, dropping over 10% in 24 hours at worst.
In short, it no longer has the confidence to break away from Bitcoin's trend and basically just follows the mainstream's lead. #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 What signal does Microsoft's heavily invested self-developed Maia 300 chip really send?
Recently, Microsoft unveiled its third-generation self-developed AI chip Maia 300, with the key computing power part fully utilizing TSMC's 2nm process, and equipped with 288GB of HBM4 memory. This is not just about saving money, but also a deep concern from the giants about Nvidia's hardware monopoly.
From a technical route perspective, Nvidia is used to using a super-large single chip paired with high-bandwidth memory, while Microsoft is playing with a multi-chip combination of smaller chips, using 2nm for the core and more cost-effective 3nm for other auxiliary parts. This design can flexibly control costs and is more suitable for handling large-scale long-text inference tasks in the cloud.
However, the biggest challenge for self-developed chips has never been the specs on paper, but ecosystem compatibility and deployment speed. Although there are rumors of a grand plan to deploy over a million units next year, truly shaking Nvidia's software moat built over many years remains a tough battle in the short term.
I think cloud providers develop chips not ultimately to completely replace anyone, but to have bargaining chips when negotiating with Nvidia.
Next, major companies' self-developed chips will move from behind the scenes to the forefront, forcing the entire hardware supply chain to accelerate internal competition.
From this wave of self-developed chips and supply chain patterns,
Microsoft $MSFT Nvidia $NVDA TSMC $TSM
$MSFT $NVDA $TSM
#微软发布新一代AI芯片，股价触及年内高点 CZ posted a condensed version of a long article on asset security on X yesterday, advocating that security investments should match the value of holdings and personal technical ability, addressing theft prevention, loss prevention, and inheritance together. Chainalysis statistics show that in 2025, there were 158,000 personal wallet thefts totaling $713 million, half of the previous year's $1.5 billion, though the number of cases is increasing. An overlooked aspect is that the more complex the offline computer and multi-location backup process, the higher the chance of user error, and losses from such errors have not been publicly reported. In the first half of 2026, there were 46 armed coercion cases involving over $30 million; cold storage cannot prevent these. I expect the number of personal wallet cases to continue rising this year, with the amount per case decreasing. $BTC holders should practically test their recovery process first. The above is a personal opinion record and does not constitute any investment advice. First, let's talk about FIL's technical candlestick chart issue, which is also the strongest guidance for my trading. I am currently reviewing the trades.
The first analysis of FIL is because I was scolded harshly for three consecutive days because of this FIL.
The chart includes both 4H candlestick charts and 1H hourly candlestick charts.
Conclusion first: The best position for FIL in the morning happens to be the common support level of the 1-hour and 4-hour charts. After touching this favorable position, together with the overall market, a clear bullish structure appeared on the hourly chart, so quickly enter a long position.
Reasoning:
Following up on the posts from the day before yesterday and especially one posted last night, I mentioned that 1.21 is a 4H-level previous high support for FIL. However, the sentiment was too poor last night, and there was no pause at 1.21; it broke down directly with no bullish signs at all. Naturally, this support level became invalid and useless for entry.
Today's second support level for FIL at 1.0728 was perfectly supported and eventually formed a bullish pattern, so naturally, just chase in and go long.
Off-topic: When I entered FIL today, I was on a boat trip out of town and didn't look at the candlestick charts. I had already done the homework yesterday and entered purely based on intuition. So far, the results are pretty good.
If this article gets posted and I get scolded again, then to the brothers who scold me, you misunderstood me. It is definitely not my fault!! $SOL is just about to play mahjong, the K-line is just turning downward. 100x leverage, entered at 110.5 and marked at 108.64, 168% profit, my mahjong partners still don't know I've won big.
The sideways stalemate is broken! A sudden downward move in the silence, once the direction is chosen, the space is set. After contraction, a reversal is inevitable.
Trend: pressure from 110.5 down to 108.64, floating profit is considerable. Breaking down means bears dominate, follow to survive.
Structure defines space. Panic is a false breakout, loss is betting full position.
Take half profit first, defend the rest with stop orders. If you haven't entered, wait for a rebound failure, then confirm before entering again, don't be cannon fodder. $BTC $ETH #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 $BTC was at 81,500 this morning, still at 82,400 at 7 o'clock, with Asian sell-offs continuously hitting, dropping as low as 81,200. Open interest is 93,200 contracts, previously nearly 100,000, a lot has been washed out, but the funding rate is still positive, indicating that leveraged liquidations are not over yet.
In the short term, to recover losses, it depends on whether BTC can hold above 84,200, not just bounce up and fall back down. Also, CPI should not push US Treasury yields and the dollar higher again, or macro pressure will return.
Right now, don’t try to guess the bottom; just see if anyone is willing to keep buying at 80,000.
The macro environment is also very pressured: the 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.36%, the highest since 2002, with money being drained out. ETFs saw a net outflow of 679 million from October 5-9, with 485 million outflow on the 7th alone. Trading volume is also low, averaging 6.8 billion on the 7th, less than 90% of trading days since 2024. Prices rose but volume didn’t follow; retail investors are inactive, and ETFs are still flowing out. The problem is not too much selling, but insufficient buying strength.
Looking at the liquidation heatmap again, there are potential long liquidations of over 100 million near 83,000, and another batch around 82,100-82,200. On the upside, there are 250 million short liquidations between 84,600-84,750; a little spark in the spot market could trigger a short squeeze. #BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 #利雅得机场遇袭，沙特加快陆路输油布局 $BTC $ETH $SOL
#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息
At this moment, Harker's hawkish stance seems more like a "precautionary warning" ahead of the upcoming CPI release. Her preferred "small, frequent rate hikes" imply that tightening won't end soon, rather than passively reacting after the data is out.
The impact on the crypto market is somewhat bearish, but the extent depends on the CPI itself:
· Core logic: Rising rate hike expectations will push up U.S. Treasury yields (the 30-year is near 5.7%), weakening the appeal of the interest-free asset BTC, while a stronger dollar also suppresses risk appetite.
· Market pricing: CME data shows traders' bets on a December rate hike probability have surged to 88%, which is more hawkish than before Harker's speech.
· BTC reaction: After the news, BTC dropped to around $81,000 and is currently in weak consolidation.
The key is tomorrow night (October 14) CPI: expected year-over-year 3.7%. If the core month-over-month reaches 0.3%, it will confirm rate hike expectations, and BTC may dip to $80,000 or even lower; if the core month-over-month is only 0.2%, a short-term recovery rebound is possible.
In short: Harker has "cast the tightening spell" early, and CPI is the final judgment. Before the data is out, watching and waiting is safer than betting.
#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #半导体板块集中抛售，韩国KOSPI跌超6% 韩股又熔断了，最高跌了6个点，海力士跌超10%，闪迪从昨天起就开始崩。这剧本7月刚演过一遍，当时半导体跌了一整个月，结果大饼反而从底部慢慢爬起来了。$SKHYNIX $SNDK $BTC 7月初我就说过，半导体潮水退去对币圈是好事。当时币圈在低位，半导体在高位，只要有一小撮资金从那边流过来，对大饼来说就是实打实的增量。那波大饼从5.8万反弹到6.5万，算是把币圈从悬崖边拉了回来。 这次存储崩盘的导火索很明确，长鑫存储宣布技术突破，同面积能塞更多存储单元，直接挑战传统巨头的垄断。中国厂商一旦跑通技术，量产速度从来不是问题。再加上存储板块这两年涨得太猛，主力资金本来就有撤退需求，这波调整基本挡不住。不光存储，光模块也跟着挨刀，GLW、LITE、COHR这些AI通信链上的票全在跌。 有意思的是，大饼现在其实位置挺尴尬的，高位刚经历了一轮回调，随时可能再来一波大的。但半导体的衰退反而可能帮它续了一命。今早大饼回撤到8.1万附近，买盘直接涌上来，快速拉回8.3万以上，说明底下抄底的意愿不弱。对比之下纳指早盘跌了0.8个点，反弹乏力，大饼这边明显更硬气。 资金逻辑其实挺简单的，存储板块走弱，总得How this rebound came about: short covering + easing geopolitical tensions
BTC rebounded from the intraday low of 80,961 to 84,130, an increase of over 3,100 points. There are two driving factors:
Short covering is the main driving force. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $710 million, of which short liquidations accounted for $461 million, or 65%. The 83,500-84,200 range was packed with closely liquidated long and short positions, with shorts being concentratedly cleared at the low level, forming passive buying support.
The drop in oil prices provided marginal improvement. Brent crude oil fell from the high of $107.25, easing the previous inflation panic caused by the attack on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. However, geopolitical risks have not been resolved, and oil prices remain high. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 Institutions expect that rising energy prices may push the overall CPI year-on-year from 3.4% up to 3.7%, but the core CPI month-on-month growth may slow from 0.3% to 0.2%. This combination is very critical: overall inflation is driven up by oil prices, but core inflation is cooling down. If the core CPI truly slows, it indicates that price pressures have not spread, and the market will strengthen expectations for a pause in rate hikes.
However, officials are not backing down. Cleveland Fed President Mester clearly stated on October 12 that inflation pressures remain broad, supporting further rate hikes. CME data shows the market expects about a 79.5% probability of rates remaining unchanged in October. There is a significant divergence between hawkish officials and market pause expectations.
This divergence is the source of volatility tomorrow night. If the overall CPI is relatively hot but core cools, the market will lean toward pause expectations, causing the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields to fall, and BTC may have a chance to rebound and test 83,500 to 84,500. If both overall and core exceed expectations, the probability of a rate hike in October will rise again, putting pressure on BTC, with support at 81,500 to 82,000; breaking that level could see it test 80,000.
BTC is currently around 82,000, up 0.8%. There are many defenders stacked around 80,000, so this level has short-term support. But the direction is not yet decided; before the data release tomorrow night, avoid heavy bets.$BTC was at 81,500 this morning, still at 82,400 at 7 o'clock, with Asian sell-offs continuously hitting, dropping as low as 81,200. Open interest is 93,200 contracts, previously nearly 100,000, so quite a few have been washed out, but the funding rate is still positive, indicating that leveraged liquidations are not over yet.
In the short term, to recover losses, it depends on whether BTC can hold above 84,200, not just bounce up and fall back down. Also, CPI should not push US Treasury yields and the dollar higher again, or else macro pressure will return.
Right now, don't try to guess the bottom; just see if anyone is willing to keep buying at 80,000.
The macro environment is also very pressured: the 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.36%, the highest since 2002, with money being drained out. ETFs had a net outflow of 679 million from October 5-9, with 485 million outflow on the 7th alone. Trading volume is also low, averaging 6.8 billion on the 7th, less than 90% of trading days since 2024. Prices rose but volume did not follow; retail investors are inactive, and ETFs are still seeing outflows. The problem is not too much selling, but insufficient buying strength.
Looking at the liquidation heatmap, there are potential long liquidations of over 100 million near 83,000, and another batch around 82,100-82,200. On the upside, there are 250 million short liquidations between 84,600-84,750, so a little spark in the spot market could trigger a short squeeze. #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 📉 The storage sector continues to plunge! The real logic behind it is not the collapse of AI demand
The storage sector collectively weakened, with SanDisk and Micron sharply falling on October 12, declining 6 out of 7 trading days, entering a weak consolidation phase.
The root cause of the decline is not the disappearance of AI demand; the market is re-evaluating long-term supply and demand: news about ChangXin's new generation DRAM architecture has been released. If subsequent mass production is realized, the storage capacity landscape in 2027-2028 may be reshaped, and the price increase logic needs to be reconsidered. Combined with Samsung and Hynix's buybacks nearing completion and foreign capital reducing holdings, a large amount of previously profitable positions fled upon the news, intensifying the pullback.
The weakness in storage only indirectly affects the crypto market, suppressing market risk appetite; however, the core variables for Bitcoin remain US Treasury yields and CPI, and sector fluctuations cannot determine Bitcoin's major trend.
Personal operation:
Long Bitcoin positions at 83,000, short positions at 86,500 for hedging both ways, with a relatively light position; no betting on one-sided moves before CPI.
Long position: stop loss at 81,500, target 86,000
Short position: stop loss at 87,500, target 84,500-85,000
Whichever target is reached first, reduce that side's position first.
Temporarily watching the storage sector, waiting for ChangXin's mass production verification and supply-demand data to materialize before deciding. Do not chase highs or sell lows; always set stop losses on positions.Why has the US stock market been performing so poorly recently?
The root cause of this recent weakness in the US stock market actually lies in the memory sector, which has directly shaken market confidence in the AI rally.
Memory chips are the core hardware that AI computing power cannot bypass. Now the market is getting nervous, worried that the supply-demand situation might completely reverse. Domestic ChangXin has made a major breakthrough in DRAM technology, which could very likely break the existing industry monopoly. Additionally, the massive stock buybacks by overseas giants have also been halted, removing a key support for stock prices.
A series of changes have caused investors to start doubting how long the high demand for AI hardware can be sustained. Memory-related stocks were the first to see massive capital flight, and pessimism quickly spread across the entire tech sector, dragging the overall market down. In short, the entire market is now re-evaluating the various risks hidden behind this big AI surge! $SNDK $SKHYNIX #半导体板块集中抛售，韩国KOSPI跌超6% $BTC brothers, this rebound is very strong, with short squeezes and shaking out the weak hands. Most likely, there will be another wave of rally coming. Even if it's a bull trap, it won't drop before the US stock market opens. As long as Bitcoin can hold above 84000, enter long positions directly and follow the whales to take a bite of the mainstream longs.
You can see from the net capital inflow changes that the market has warmed up. Enter long at 84000, with the first target above 85000.
Here are a few additional reasons to be bullish:
First, whales are bottom fishing. The whale with 15 consecutive wins on Hyperliquid opened a $15 million BTC long near 81000, and placed ladder buy orders totaling over $90 million between 72000 and 81000, clearly waiting to buy on dips.
Second, on-chain data supports this. In the past three weeks, whales have increased holdings by 86,000 BTC, exchange net outflows hit a seven-month high, big players are buying, retail is selling.
Third, shorts are being liquidated. This rally has liquidated many short positions; a short squeeze turns into buying pressure, pushing the price higher.
Fourth, technicals are stabilizing. After BTC dipped below 81000, it quickly recovered, indicating strong support below. Once 84000 is firmly held, the upside space opens up.The more useful AI constraint may be shifting from supply to underwriting. Broadcom and Intel leaders still see near-term demand, yet their focus on financing costs and validated long-term returns suggests capital will increasingly favor projects with a credible path from compute spend to cash flow.
#AIFundingConstraints $ZEC's large bearish candlestick directly smashed through the key support level. Looking at the market, my heart bleeds—not because I'm afraid of it falling, but because I hate being too conservative. I clearly saw the heavy selling pressure above that prevented any breakout, yet I never dared to decisively increase my position and roll it. Now, the unrealized profits in my account are right in front of me, but all I feel is regret. I clearly grasped the bearish trend, but due to hesitation at the critical moment, I missed the fattest part of the profit in this market.
I am confident this downtrend is far from over. The core support comes from the latest fundamental changes: $ZEC's NU7 mainnet upgrade is approaching, and the protocol plans to disable the old v4 transactions. A large amount of funds locked in the old privacy pools face the risk of being unretrievable. The core value of privacy coins is entirely built on the stability and trustworthiness of the underlying protocol. This level of rule disruption directly shakes its technical foundation, and panic selling pressure will continue to be released.
There is still ample room to enter and roll positions now. As long as the stop-loss is set above the broken support line, you can follow the trend to catch the subsequent bearish market and make up for the previously missed gains.
#BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？
#现货ETF资金分化，BTC卖压仍在
#SOL延续涨势，资金与链上需求共振
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