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The end of $FIL unlocking is not a reversal; it just replaces the obvious selling pressure with a demand vacuum. The real daily storage income is only $4, compared to a valuation of over a billion, what is supporting this market? The long-short ratio is stuck at 190, with over 2 million leveraged positions all piled on the same side. It would be strange if the big players don't push it down. The highs and lows keep moving lower every day, and after breaking below the range's lower boundary, there hasn't been a decent rebound; everything offline is just a pretense.
#FIL
$FIL
👇SoFi's earnings-driven rally is really strong—yesterday's post mentioned a pre-market +4.8%, today OKX's xSOFI went straight to 16.59, +15.13%, climbing from 14.38 to 16.68 within 24h, staying near the highs; the underlying stock SOFI hit 16.57 intraday, +14.56%, marking the largest single-day gain since August 3.
What's driving this? Q3 revenue exceeded expectations, adjusted EBITDA beat market estimates by over $40 million, and the company raised its full-year revenue guidance—every metric in the earnings report is proving the bears wrong. Fintech (digital banking plus lending) is being revalued by capital; OKX xSOFI tracks the underlying stock intraday with less than 1% price difference.
My judgment: this is a genuine earnings-driven rally, not just hype—the revenue beat plus raised guidance are solid catalysts; but with three consecutive days of gains (+9%, +14%, +15%), sentiment is heating up. Intraday turnover of 7.19% indicates intensified trading, so those chasing should beware of a high-open, low-close scenario.
Watch the signals: whether 16.68 (24h high) can break out with volume; if the underlying stock can hold above 16.65 intraday, sentiment remains intact; the most critical is whether it can close firmly above 16—earnings rallies fear a gap fill from a low open the next day.
#SoFi #xSOFI #USStockTokens
Not investment advice, DYORTrump calls to buy coins, the Federal Reserve coldly raises interest rates: who do you think retail investors believe?
Brothers, this script is just too intense.
On one side, the White House is exploring using federal funds to buy Bitcoin, with the strategic reserve executive order still fresh;
On the other side, the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, personally appointed by Trump, raised interest rates by 25 basis points in September, which angered Trump so much that he said in a "Time" interview: "If it were me, I would vote no."
You call this "America First"? This is called fighting with both hands.
But the market first believed Trump's words. When he said "discussed buying Bitcoin," BTC surged from 65,000 to 70,000; when he said "no war with Iran before midterm elections," BTC bounced back to 81,000.
But look closely, all these statements are "discussed," "planned," "in progress"—none have actually been implemented. The probability of the bill passing was cut from 30% to 10% by Galaxy Digital, and Polymarket only gives 17%-19%.
The market is trading on what Trump said, but the Fed is trading on whether inflation is still present.
A report from the New York Fed directly contradicts this: 2.9 percentage points of commodity inflation in February 2026 is due to tariffs; the September CPI annual increase is 3.7%, with fuel prices soaring 74% year-over-year.
So in the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $544 million, with longs liquidated at $461 million, which is not undeserved at all.
Retail investors believed the "Trump rally" and chased longs, but the Fed poured a cold bucket of interest rate hikes, and leverage died on the spot.#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ No#闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？ Folks, on October 29th there's another tough battle ahead, SanDisk is about to release its latest quarterly earnings report.
The current expectation is revenue between 10.3 billion and 10.8 billion USD, with confidence fully resting on AI data center demand and NAND flash price increases. It looks quite strong, but there's a big pit hidden inside.
The market isn't afraid of poor performance now; it's afraid of good performance with guidance that isn't explosive enough. Recently, Micron and Western Digital had decent earnings, yet their stock prices were still hammered badly. Because expectations were set too high, as soon as you can't continue to beat expectations, the money runs away immediately.
This time, when looking at SanDisk, don't just focus on revenue; the key is to watch two things. First is gross margin—whether the benefits from NAND price hikes have truly converted into solid profits. Second is next quarter's guidance—whether management has confidence that demand and price increases will continue into next year.
This matter still directly impacts our BTC. Storage and chips are the risk appetite barometers for global tech stocks. If SanDisk's earnings disappoint, the entire AI hardware chain will shake, and BTC definitely won't hold the 80,000 level, it will have to drop further. Conversely, if its performance is outstanding, it means AI is still crazily attracting money, but BTC won't benefit much since all the money is going into building data centers. $SNDK $SKHYNIX $BTC 10月27日晚上，我在 OKX 买入了 0.602324 枚 xSNDK，成交均价 1299.3 USDT，实际成交约 781.34 U。订单截图附在下面，有兴趣的朋友可以对照看看。 先说说财报前的想法。闪迪将在10月29日美股盘后公布新一季财报。上一季度营收89.65亿美元，环比增长51%，公司给出的本季度营收指引是103亿到108亿美元。我比较看好它的存储业务，主要是因为AI数据中心的需求在持续释放，加上NAND价格和企业级SSD业务的扩张，这几点在我看来都是比较扎实的支撑。 业绩出来之后，我会主要盯三个地方：营收能不能超出指引，毛利率能不能守住高位，下一季度的指引有没有继续上调。另外也要想到风险，如果市场提前把利好炒作完了，哪怕业绩不错，股价也可能出现高开低走的情况，这一点我心里有数。 至于为什么现在买，这笔其实是财报前的小仓位试单，并不是重仓押注业绩。选择 xSNDK，主要是想参与存储板块的财报行情，同时把仓位控制在自己能承受的范围内。后面如果财报超预期，股价也能站稳，我再考虑是否加仓；如果利好出来却放量下跌，那我就得重新评估了。 说到底，做交易不是猜对财报就一定能赚钱，入场位为什么大家这么关注后面的议息会议，实际上利息基本上牵动上面整个市场的波动。就拿加息为例，事实上债市和利息基本挂钩，一般利息高了债的收益率会同步上调锚定。 原因在于如果出现收益率利率脱锚，那么时常会出现大量的套利行为，从银行借钱买债，那这种情况会使得经济雪上加霜。不是银行的初衷，当然有时候债市也会倒逼央行对利率调控。 那么加息同样会使得全球资本流入，以美国为例，美联储加息，美国的资产具备吸引力，全球货币会在汇市结算为美元在美国进行存储吃利息等行为，会强逼美元汇率上升，加强美元价值。 那么加息也会抽干美国本土股市流动性以及黄金流动性，包括$BTC 。都说股债跷跷板，这就是原因，加息使得美国本土企业融资困难，市场对企业的预期利润持悲观态度，则本土股市萧条。 另外黄金和$BTC 是全球市场，资本结算为美元去购买风险更低的债或者存入美联储，那么进一步抽干这两个市场流动性。 基本上上面是一个比较浅的理解，字数有限制，就先写到这。 #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Strategy halts for the first time in five weeks as FOMC opens today
Two stable marginal buy orders simultaneously stopped before the decision: Strategy made no trades from October 19 to 25, instead spending about $205 million to repurchase preferred shares; U.S. spot ETFs saw a combined outflow of about $770 million over two days, with prices suppressed below 80,000 awaiting direction.
$BTC around 79,600, briefly rebounded above 80,000 intraday before falling back. ETF net inflow for the day was $110 million, but all came from BlackRock IBIT alone, with zero flow from other products. 79,400–79,600 saw multiple supports, while 80,500–80,800 is resistance above. Strategy's pause is more noteworthy than ETF outflows, as it signals buying on a weekly basis.
$ETH around 2,305. ETF net outflow for the day was $88.58 million, with BlackRock ETHA alone accounting for $104.7 million, setting a single-day outflow record for the product. 2,300 was repeatedly tested, with no capital support signaling a bottom.
$SOL around 99.9, having fallen below 100. ETF net outflow for the day was $8.23 million, and about $49 million SOL was transferred to exchanges as monitored on-chain.
In short: Before the FOMC opens, Strategy has stopped, ETFs are propped up by only one player, and SOL has broken the key round number. All three coins are waiting for the same thing: who will come back first after the decision.
#Meta启动350亿美元融资，支持AI基建 60,000 people received voluntary layoff invitations as Microsoft invests $175 billion in AI
On Monday, Microsoft offered voluntary layoffs to about 60,000 employees, accounting for 27% of its global workforce of 223,000.
This covers the US, Canada, UK, and India, including teams from Copilot, Windows, and Xbox, excluding data centers and sales.
Decisions must be made by early December, with departures by year-end; the company did not disclose how many it expects to leave.
This is not the first downsizing this year: about 8,750 qualified for the spring retirement plan, with over 30% accepting, and 4,800 were laid off in July.
Meanwhile, Microsoft plans to spend $175 billion on AI infrastructure this year, with quarterly capital expenditures exceeding $50 billion.
The money saved on personnel is flowing into buying hardware.
Earnings report will be released after market close tomorrow, with expected EPS of $4.71 and revenue of $90.6 billion; Azure guidance growth at 45%.
My view: The AI spending will eventually be balanced by headcount reductions; downsizing is not negative but a cost statement, so observe without chasing.
Invalidation point: Azure growth below 45%, or capital expenditure guidance raised again.
Which side are you on?
A: Downsizing to protect profits, stock rises after earnings B: Spending out of control, watch $486 first
$MSFT $GOOGL $AMZN
#Microsoft #EarningsReport 盘面安静得有点不真实，BTC 在 79,800 到 79,330 之间磨，最高摸过 80,291 又滑回来，像在门口反复试探却不肯推门。你看到这根横线，会想加仓还是先缩手？ 过去 24 小时跌了 0.54% 到 0.76%，月度累计约 5%，已经三周连阴。恐惧与贪婪指数从 50 掉到 48，中性偏下，情绪没崩，但明显在收着。真正让我停一下的是衍生品这头：24 小时清算约 1.35 亿美元，其中多头占 9174 万。杠杆多头在 FOMC 前主动撤退，这不是恐慌，更像提前卸掉脆弱点。 市场现在交易的其实不是"加不加息"，而是"12 月会不会被迫动"。本次按兵不动概率 90.6% 到 91%，几乎被完全计价，所以真正的变量藏在 12 月那接近 80% 的加息预期里。换句话说，会议本身可能没惊喜，但措辞和点阵图只要稍微偏鹰，就会先打到那些还没清干净的多头仓位。 偏多的路径也成立：多头杠杆被洗掉一轮后，持仓结构变轻，若决议温和，挤压风险反而转向空头，BTC 有机会重新测试 80,291 上方，ETH 和山寨的情绪修复会更快，风险偏好回暖时资金更愿意回到高 beta 标的。但风险没被看见的部分是，$SOFI's earnings report triggered a 15% jump, but the stock price is only at half of its one-year high.
Both membership and revenue are growing, and next year's guidance is higher than the market expected. I can understand this rally.
What I care more about is the crypto revenue line.
On the books, it's $160 million for one quarter, but after costs, they only keep $1.6 million.
In other words, they're just helping users buy crypto and taking a small cut; the money basically doesn't go into their own pocket.
So don't treat it as a crypto concept stock to speculate on; its profits still mainly come from lending.
However, the number of crypto accounts opened increased quite a bit in one quarter, it seems retail investors are coming back.
I don't hold it, so I won't chase.
If today's bullish candle can hold above $15.5, that would be considered digested; if it falls back to the $14 range, then treat it as a one-day play.
When you look at earnings reports, do you check revenue first or flip through the fine print?
$SOFI $COIN $BTC
#SoFiEarnings上周一整周，全球最大的企业持币方一枚比特币都没买：十月十九到二十五号，零买入、零卖出，连续五周的增持停在这里。同一周它花掉 2.049 亿美元，回购自己 206.8 万股优先股，账上美元现金从 4.473 亿缩到 2.424 亿。价格同步跌穿 8 万，最低摸到 79,500 附近。这份提交给监管的文件把话说得很直白——钱有更急的地方要去，而那个地方不是比特币。 大部分人只看到「少了一个买家」，我看到的是弹药换了用途。它手上 848,517 枚、总成本 640.2 亿、均价 75,446，离现价不到 6%——再往下走，它自己先站在浮亏边上。过去几年每次恐慌，它是唯一还在出价的那一方；现在这一方开始给自己止血，底部的算法就变了。历史摆在那儿：2021 年 11 月那轮见顶，最先崩的不是价格，是它股票相对持币的溢价，溢价一没，买币的机器自动停。这次还没到那一步，但方向是一样的。 有个细节几乎没人提。指数编制方 11 月 11 日出受影响名单、11 月 30 日起生效：资产负债表被单一资产主导的公司，要失去指数资格。这句话翻成钱就是——要么筹钱证明自己不是只会囤币，要么被动卖币保住席位。靠被动#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
Better than expected: Yes
HBM4 is gradually ramping up, DRAM/NAND spot and contract prices are rising, the proportion of high value-added AI storage continues to increase, and multiple brokerages have raised profit targets. The risk lies in the market expectations already being fully priced in; even if profits meet targets, if HBM shipments or Q4 ASP guidance fall short of expectations, it is easy for the positive momentum to be realized and then retreat. An additional surprise could be a special dividend plan.📉BTC back to 80,000? Don't rush to pop the champagne, but the bears' coffin lid has already been nailed shut!
Brothers, BTC is hovering above 80,000 now. Looks stable? Do you know how many people liquidated overnight when it dropped to 79,330 early yesterday?
But what you didn't see is that in the past 12 hours, short liquidations have accounted for 58%, surpassing the longs. In the last 4 hours, shorts have been liquidated by 9.36 million, while longs only 6.13 million.
Price is rising, shorts are bleeding, doesn't this script look a bit familiar?
Look outside the market, real money is coming back. Last week, BTC spot ETFs had a net inflow of $442 million, reversing two consecutive weeks of outflows.
Bitcoin reserves on exchanges remain at multi-year lows, with fewer chips available to dump. What do shorts have to push the price down? Just talk?
But don't get ahead of yourself. The 80,000 level is not a solid bottom, it's a tug-of-war line.
Above, 81,800 is the 50-day moving average, and 84,120 is the real resistance.
The FOMC is tonight, before that old man Wash speaks, no one knows which script he'll read. In this double explosion of longs and shorts, chasing highs is just giving away your head.
My approach is clear: don't chase shorts, and don't blindly chase longs.
From 79,300 to 81,800 is the upper and lower edge of the meat grinder. Shorts have already laid down a batch, but the real direction depends on a strong volume breakout above 81,800 to count. OKB is just a pure worthless snack. The total supply locked at 21 million sounds impressive, but in reality, it's just for show—no one uses it, no one locks it, no one burns it, it's locked in vain. The 30 million TVL in X Layer is nothing in the L2 circle; others' yawns surpass its annual trading volume.
Exchange OS is hyped as the next-generation financial infrastructure, but what’s the result? Public beta runs on points, like elementary school kids collecting stickers. Real liquidity? Nonexistent. The RWA narrative is loud, but the tokenized stock scale is negligible. Compliance has been shouted for over a decade, but they haven't secured a decent license or even a shadow of one.
What's the most disgusting? OKX exchange itself is making a fortune, derivatives depth is maxed out, user base is there, but OKB holders get no piece of the pie. All the money goes into the company's pockets, token holders just stare blankly, like fools waiting for "future value release." Future? Future my ass.
Xu Mingxing’s "stability" mantra is so "stable" that OKB’s market cap can’t even reach a fraction of BNB’s. Other exchanges’ tokens are rising, but OKB is playing dead, like a vegetable.The core focus of MSTR's (formerly MicroStrategy) latest earnings report is not on software business revenue, but on the book volatility brought by Bitcoin holdings. The stock price is highly tied to BTC price, and the earnings report's book profit and loss basically come from unrealized gains and losses of crypto assets.
The software main business cash flow is stable, but the market pricing logic has long shifted to Bitcoin leveraged positions. If BTC sentiment improves, capital will prioritize playing MSTR's elasticity; conversely, impairment pressure will quickly suppress the stock price.
This bet on a positive return essentially wagers on BTC's sentiment recovery on the first full trading day after the earnings report, with high elasticity and risks concentrated on coin price fluctuations.A $400 million whale long position is only $30 away from liquidation! Big players are slipping away first, while retail investors are still holding on
BTC today oscillated between $79,400 and $80,800, closing at $79,841, with the $80k level repeatedly gained and lost; ETH is even weaker, stuck at $2,312, not actively following the rise, but leading the fall. The question is: who is buying? Who is running? $ETH
Big players are slipping away, retail investors are holding on. The BTC retail long-short ratio has dropped to 0.4861, with massive liquidations; the big players' long-short ratio is 0.77, holding longs and watching, with bears dominating. ETH is even more amusing, the long-short ratio still hanging at 2.46, the bullish exposure hasn't been cleaned out at all, the bulls are quite stubborn. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $578 million, with bulls contributing 91%, BTC and ETH were cut by $235 million and $184 million respectively. The most exciting part is that a certain whale holds nearly $400 million in BTC+ETH long positions, with ETH liquidation price at $2,181, last night’s low was $2,282, only $30 away from "going to the rooftop", urgently adding margin to survive. $BTC
No impact from outside news? The impact is big. The probability of the Fed holding rates steady on October 28 is about 90%, but the expectation of a rate hike in December has climbed above 68%; ETFs also showed no mercy, with BTC net outflow of $169 million in a single day, and ETH net outflow of $16.07 million
Today is not the bottom, it’s a "wait"—waiting for the Fed decision to land, waiting to see if the whale’s $400 million+ position will be topped up or wiped out #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Don't be fooled by “bulls outnumbering bears by 2.2 times,” more people doesn't mean the price will rise.
① OKX 4H went from 1.3025 to 1.3194, with a high of 1.3288. In plain terms: there's a rebound, but the 1.33 barrier hasn't been cleared yet.
② Gate has 2,660 long users, 1,228 short users, holding 11.07 million contracts. In plain terms: the bulls are genuinely crowded, not just fake hype.
③ Funding rate is 0.01%, not expensive. In plain terms: the cost for bulls is low, so they can hold on for a while.
Experienced traders know that a crowded rebound is the easiest to catch the last leg if you chase it. I'm bearish for now, watching around 1.29; if 4H closes above 1.33, I'll admit I'm wrong.
Do you think the bulls are preparing a big move, or just fueling the bears? $XRP #XRP The core focus of MSTR's (formerly MicroStrategy) latest earnings report is not on software business revenue, but on the book volatility brought by Bitcoin holdings. The stock price is highly tied to BTC price, and the earnings report's book profit and loss basically come from unrealized gains and losses of crypto assets.
The software main business cash flow is stable, but the market pricing logic has long shifted to Bitcoin leveraged positions. If BTC sentiment improves, capital will prioritize playing MSTR's elasticity; conversely, impairment pressure will quickly suppress the stock price.
This bet on a positive return essentially wagers on BTC's sentiment recovery on the first full trading day after the earnings report, with high elasticity and risks concentrated on coin price fluctuations.SK Hynix's upcoming Q3 earnings report is widely expected by the market to show operating profit climbing to a high level, but the core focus is no longer on short-term performance; it is on the industry logic restructuring brought by customized HBM4.
The era of huge profits from mass-producing standardized memory is rapidly coming to an end. Starting with HBM4, the fundamental logic wafer (Base Die) must fully shift to TSMC's advanced logic process manufacturing. Memory manufacturers are no longer independent players but are deeply integrated into the ASIC and customized wafer ecosystem, with capital expenditures and yield costs rising sharply.
This creates an industry inflection point: although HBM4 can raise unit prices, TSMC's share combined with complex packaging costs will directly compress the originally ultra-high HBM gross margin of over 70%. Future profit growth will no longer depend on who ships faster but on who can unlock the customized supply chain and maintain bargaining power.
When HBM completely transforms from a "hot commodity" into an "exclusive customized part bound by foundry," who do you think—Hynix or Samsung—can better withstand the dual pressure from foundries and chip designers?
Regarding SK Hynix's upcoming Q3 earnings report tomorrow, if I were to summarize it in one sentence: the performance will be very impressive, but the capital market's reaction may be quite cautious or even divided.
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ $ENS
There’s a lot of big news today, but I’ll note a less popular one first: ENSv2 has launched on the Ethereum mainnet. The protocol has been completely rewritten, supporting 36 million names and over 600 applications in resolution, and they even issued a commemorative NFT. With an update of this scale, other coins would have already taken off.
But the price gave me a cold splash: OKX is currently at 5.145, dropping from 5.302 in 24 hours, down about 3%, with a high of 5.32 and a low of 5.029; Binance is at 5.129, down 3.13%, roughly the same. The funding rate is 0.01% at the first tier, and contract open interest is only $1.65 million, very quiet.
I casually checked the changes: the annual fee for domain names over 5 characters rose from $5 to $8, the grace period was cut from 90 days to 28 days, and the maximum discount for long-term registration is 44%. The protocol is making real changes, and fees are genuinely increasing. My judgment: the price on launch day doesn’t count; the real test is whether people will register or renew because of this version. I won’t guess the price; I’ll watch the user data for this version for a month first.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BTC
There were three ETF-related news all at once today, so why is BTC still moving so sluggishly at 80,000? The head of research at Galaxy said some long-term funds increased their Bitcoin ETF holdings in Q3, with his SIGFIG clients adding $73 million; VanEck released a comprehensive ETF that bundles Bitcoin, stocks, bonds, and gold together; BlackRock's BTC ETF index data is also going on-chain. In the past, any one of these would have been enough to trigger a rally.
I checked the prices: OKX current price is 80,413, fluctuating between 79,505 and 80,835 in 24 hours; Binance at 80,384, lowest 79,468, down 0.24% in 24 hours, both sides match up. Funding rate is 0.01% at one tier, slightly positive; contract open interest is $2.57 billion, leverage hasn't changed—news is flying, but positions remain steady.
The Federal Reserve meeting is in these two days, and the decision hasn't been made yet. I understand big money is holding back for now. As for when these ETF buy orders will start moving the price, I'm watching closely but haven't seen it yet.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
My judgment: Q3 will be a record-breaking good performance, most likely reaching or slightly exceeding the revised profit forecast of about 77 trillion KRW, but the main contributor is the price increase of general DRAM, not HBM4. HBM4 shipments fell short of expectations due to Nvidia Rubin's delay, and the real profit boost will come after Q4, with Samsung also competing for market share. The market will focus more on guidance rather than Q3 itself.550,000 $OKB directly deposited into the exchange, pushing the inventory up by 36% in one go.
The order book depth is usually thin, and big players are loading all their bullets now, clearly looking for someone to take the hit.
Moving chips so blatantly at a high level, whoever reaches out to catch them is just pure meat to absorb the loss.
Let's see when this batch will be dumped downward.
#OKB
$OKB
👇$TRUMP This trend is clearly a cash-out machine.
The price has dropped to around 1.6, and the project team still holds 80% of the chips, quietly moving goods to the exchange every day.
The market is completely suppressed by the moving averages, relying purely on a slow decline to bleed out. Coins with no popularity really have no bottom when they fall, no matter how high the election hype is, it can't withstand the source continuously dumping downward.
This is basically the worst political meme, with absolutely no support.
#TRUMP
$TRUMP
👇#谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？
Google's after-hours earnings are out, how much real money did options traders bet this time?
Brothers, Google will release Q3 after the market closes on the 28th, current price 316.8, ranking last among the Mag7 this year, only up 2%. But the options market has already voted with its feet.
Will it beat expectations? Revenue is very likely fine. The market expects 127.8 billion, a 25% year-over-year increase, with cloud business growth aiming for over 90%.
But remember the lesson from Q2: even if earnings beat, the stock still dropped 7% because capital expenditures exploded, and free cash flow turned negative for the first time since listing. This time, the focus isn't on revenue but on whether the capex guidance will be raised again and how big the cash flow hole is.
How are options positioned?
Mostly bullish, but with insurance. The weekly Call/Put ratio reached 2.6 to 1, the Put/Call open interest ratio is 0.72, Calls clearly dominate. But don't get carried away—the 25-delta skew surged to 13, put premiums are rising, indicating bulls are buying upside while also paying for downside protection. Implied volatility prices about a 6% single-day swing, in a range from 303 to 338.
My view: options money is betting that "cloud can hold, search won't collapse." But the real risk is in the call—Pichai has already said computing power will be handed over to DeepMind, capping cloud's ceiling from insiders. The direction is bullish, but don't chase the highs. DOGE is now at 0.0773, the price hasn't moved much, but the community is getting noisy.
Dogecoin Labs announced taking over the official DOGE developer account, and the core veteran developer Mishaboar openly opposed it. My first reaction was that they were trying to pull a shell game again, but after reading his original words, he’s worried that these people might use the official account’s name to push their own commercial projects, slowly turning Dogecoin into their tool.
This reminds me of countless times before, where the old community members dislike the new operators, and it ends up either forking or falling apart. Dogecoin still doesn’t have a decent roadmap and relies solely on a single tweet from Musk. At this 0.077 price, how much is true consensus and how much is inertia, I can’t say. Anyway, for coins with this kind of internal conflict, I always keep my distance first and wait until they finish arguing.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #Meta启动350亿美元融资，支持AI基建 Trump claimed that "consumer confidence rose by 7.5%, which is a very large increase." This statement has data backing but contains a key misrepresentation.
The data comes from the U.S. Conference Board's October 2026 report: the Consumer Confidence Index rose from 84.2 in September to 91.7, an increase of 7.5 points month-over-month, not "7.5%".
Due to the very low base, this rebound exceeded market expectations, but the absolute value of 91.7 remains at a historically weak level. The Conference Board clearly pointed out that confidence is still in a long-term downward trend, mainly dragged down by high prices and persistent inflation. $BTC #SKhynixQ3HBM4Earnings
Earlier, many said that mass production of HBM4 was a signal that all positive news was already priced in, but in the second quarter SK Hynix only began small shipments, and the quarterly profit exceeded 60 trillion Korean won with a margin of 76%. This does not look like the end of the positive trend at all; on the contrary, it is just the beginning of a new profitability cycle. Now, in the third quarter, HBM4 capacity is officially increasing, and contract prices for regular DRAM continue to rise.#Robinhood trading business growth sustainability? Recently, the trading business has seen high growth, with options, stocks, and prediction event contracts becoming the core increments. Active retail traders continue to flood in, the number of paid members Robinhood Gold steadily rises, and ARPU increases simultaneously. The company continuously enriches its product line, adding short selling, futures, and other varieties. Coupled with the Bitstamp acquisition to improve the crypto track layout, overseas expansion opens up incremental space, and AI investment research tools further enhance user activity, laying the foundation for sustained business growth.
However, multiple risks constrain long-term growth. First, performance is highly dependent on market conditions. If the US stock market enters a volatile downward phase, retail trading enthusiasm can quickly cool, and trading volume will shrink accordingly. Second, industry competition is fierce, with many zero-commission brokers competing for retail customers, causing customer acquisition costs to continue rising. At the same time, there is uncertainty in US financial and crypto regulation, and policy adjustments may restrict some specialized trading businesses. The crypto sector's revenue is highly volatile, which can easily drag down overall trading revenue.
Overall, in the short term, relying on product innovation and an active market environment provides continued growth momentum, but it is difficult to maintain high growth rates in the medium to long term. It is necessary to continuously monitor market trading activity, regulatory developments, and user retention, and to manage positions carefully when trading related assets. $BTC $ETH $SOL Tonight someone threw me a number, saying that Binance's XRP withdrawals account for 55.75%, and asked me what I think.
I have no way to verify this number; on-chain data providers have very different figures, so let's put a question mark on it for now. But the direction isn't baseless—on October 28, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. At this critical moment, some people moving coins out of exchanges makes logical sense, probably just fearing unexpected policy moves before the decision.
Price-wise, XRP is currently at 1.304, with a low of 1.273 and a high of 1.311 tonight, grinding within this 0.015 range. Before the rate decision lands, I guess it will likely keep oscillating like this, so don't expect it to give a clear direction.
Let's wait for tomorrow's data to verify the withdrawal situation. In short, unusual movements before the rate decision—better to think twice than to ignore them.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Combine the overall data for a simple judgment:
1. Bitcoin ETF inflows last week were 300 million, but 1 billion came in during the first three days and 770 million ran out in the last two days, indicating funds are moving back and forth between 80k-85k with no clear direction.
2. MicroStrategy didn’t buy last week, only repurchased 200 million in preferred shares, with a profit margin of only 6% from cost to current price. They are currently waiting for a clearer time or a more suitable price. Strive spent 511.4 million USD to buy 6,182 BTC at an average price of about 82,700, bringing total holdings to 43,000 BTC. The relay is coming, with another 1 billion USD planned on the way.
3. Long-term holders on-chain hold 870,000 BTC around 80k; no one moved when it dropped below 80k, indicating short-term holders are the main force doing high sell and low buy.
4. The Federal Reserve meeting is early Thursday morning; the probability of no action is 94%. It is highly likely there will be no rate hike, but we still need to watch Wednesday night’s core PCE inflation and GDP.
Bitcoin tested below 80k twice over the weekend but quickly pulled back. Currently, the bulls seem to be defending rather than pushing up directly, all waiting for this week’s speech by Waller. Personally, I think the expectations for no rate hike in October and a hike in December by the Fed are already quite priced in, so there isn’t much downside risk here. The key focus remains on when oil prices will drop; only when oil prices fall will Bitcoin have real bullish momentum to rise. Expect volatility in the first half of the week and a rebound in the second half, but the height may be limited.
Reposted from "Madman Talks Trends"On October 26, the US BTC spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of approximately $110.3 million, with funds turning positive again, bringing some relief to the market after continuous outflows.
However, I want to clarify a common misunderstanding: ETF trading on the exchange does not mean the fund simultaneously receives the same amount of new capital.
When investors buy ETF shares on the secondary market, they may simply be acquiring them from another holder. Only when fund share subscriptions or redemptions occur does it affect the capital flow we usually discuss. Therefore, a high trading volume cannot be directly translated as "this much institutional money has bought BTC."
This also explains why sometimes ETF trading is very active, but the coin price does not respond as expected. Trading activity and new buying demand need to be observed separately.
Of course, I hope to see net inflows continue to improve. But rather than being kept awake by a huge trading volume, it’s better to align actual capital flow with price performance.
If new funds keep coming in and pullbacks are gradually absorbed, then there is more basis for judgment. This current inflow is worth noting but not enough to guarantee anything in the coming days.
BTC already causes enough emotional ups and downs; there’s no need to misinterpret "someone changing hands" as "new money rushing in," adding an extra layer of expectation.
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ 📢 Hynix earnings report tomorrow morning! 3 storage targets with huge logical differences
$SNDK 1240 💾
SanDisk mainly focuses on NAND flash, not the HBM track. AI servers drive demand for large-capacity flash and enterprise SSDs.
Note the differences in sub-sectors: even if Hynix's HBM4 data exceeds expectations, the storage sector sentiment will only push it up with weak elasticity; if it falls short of expectations, it will adjust downward accordingly.
$xMU 896 🧠
Micron's core business is DRAM, with HBM as a new business, and prices tied to the storage spot cycle.
Focus on Hynix's Q3 HBM4 shipments and customer orders. As an industry benchmark: if Hynix's data exceeds expectations, it indicates strong HBM demand and Micron benefits simultaneously; if below expectations, the entire HBM sector sentiment cools down.
$SLX 0.0524 🏭
Long-term wafer fab usage rights are on-chain, with quarterly rent collection and locked rental contracts, unaffected by chip spot price fluctuations.
It is an RWA rental asset; Hynix's earnings report will not directly affect SLX's cash flow. It earns stable rent and does not rely on HBM order market conditions.
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ 先把上一轮的交割单摆出来：上一轮 3 选全中。BNB 做多 737.80→751.70（+1.88%），止盈 745.62 已触发；TRX 做多 0.32754→0.32827（+0.22%），止盈 0.32879 未触发；ZEC 做多 1,247.15→1,290.27（+3.46%），止盈 1,283.28 已触发。三单全兑现，命中率100%，ZEC 那一单我上的仓位比常规重一档。这三笔怎么来的上一轮写得很清楚，规矩就是规矩：我只报结果。 盘面现在什么状态。价格掉在八万以下，79,700 一带磨了一整天，距 9 月 21 日那个 87,392 的高点已经回撤 9.3%。22 到 23 号两天美国上市产品净流出 7.735 亿美元，26 号才有一家把 1.103 亿投回来——跑的钱多，回来的钱少。 反直觉的地方在这儿：未平仓量没跟着价格往下掉，25 号反而升到 669,253 枚。价格在跌、杠杆没减，这只有一个含义——该认输的那批人还没被清出去，浮亏还挂在账上。恐惧贪婪指数从上周 51 掉到 43，多头情绪在退，但退得不够狠。真要出清，指标得先见血。 真正扣扳机的是 28 号那场会。$ETH current price is 2,346.13, bearish bias, this rebound will most likely retest 2,296.3. 24-hour short positions were liquidated for 18.06 million USD, while long positions only 4.8 million. The rise from the low point mainly relied on shorts being forced to cover; no new funds are actively adding longs. Covering happens only once; after shorts are cleared, this buying momentum stops. Options are even more direct. The put/call volume ratio surged to 2.01, while open interest ratio is only 0.93, indicating new entries today are clearly crowded on the bearish side. DVOL at 53 is not expensive; people are still willing to pay for downside protection. The chart shows lower highs continuously, moving averages are in a bearish alignment, price hugging previous lows, consistent with this bearish view. The batch of shorts just cleared was originally fuel for a short squeeze during the downtrend; now that it's gone, resistance is lower when price falls back to previous lows. Bullish reversal condition: hold above 2,355.42, indicating new buying after covering; otherwise, this view is invalid.Hot Coin Data Rankings｜Last 15 Minutes
$APR surged with increased volume and positions. Trading volume reached 3.312 million USDT, 4.4 times the 15-minute average volume calculated from the previous hour; price +13.05%, positions +0.82%. Price and positions both trending bullish; during pullbacks, first check if positions remain.
$ETH surged with increased volume but decreased positions. Trading volume was 296 million USDT, 4.2 times the 15-minute average volume from the previous hour; price +0.69%, positions -1.16%. Price increase driven by position closures without new leverage support, limiting sustainability.
$BTC surged with increased volume but reduced positions, with buying and selling nearly balanced at the end. Trading volume was 201 million USDT, 3.0 times the 15-minute average volume from the previous hour; positions -1.18%. At the end, active buying was 56.8%, with price +0.17% during that segment. The overall structure differs from the final segment, suggesting a possible shift in market control.北京时间明早 8 点，SK 海力士发三季报，同时公布追加的股东回报。韩国券商估的营业利润是 77 万亿韩元左右，营收 98 万亿左右，利润率快到 80%。 营业利润我估跟预期差不多，可净利润会很难看。海力士 2018 年跟着贝恩投了铠侠，现在手里还有一笔贝恩那边发的可转债。折算下来差不多是铠侠 14% 的股份，按铠侠的股价记账。三季度铠侠股价跌了 39.5%，日元对韩元又跌了快一成，这一块我粗算要亏 25 到 37 万亿韩元。二季度正好反过来，这类投资收益有 63.3 万亿。 再加上韩元升值，手里的美元资产要亏一笔汇兑，净利润可能只剩 30 万亿左右，二季度是 93.9 万亿。所以明早韩国媒体多半会写净利润大降，可这跟内存卖得好不好没多大关系。 欧易星球上海力士有两个盘子。超预期那个，看的是 Seeking Alpha 上显示的每股收益，线是 6.25 美元。规则里写了，按页面显示的数结算，不自己换算。 问题就出在这个页面上。SKHY 是在纳斯达克交易的 ADS，1 股 ADS 只对应 0.1 股韩国普通股。上一季页面上 Normalized 那一栏是空的，GAAP 那一栏是 90.6BTC is about to rebound to a resistance level! Publicly placing BTC short orders! This drop broke below 79,000! Publicly giving the trade!
The logic behind this trade is very simple: to catch a weak pullback after a rebound.
From a technical perspective, the 81,488 level is right below the previous broken dense chip area, and it is also the resistance zone for this weak rebound. BTC is pulling up from the 80,000 mark, but the volume can't keep up, which is a typical low-volume bull trap. The area from 82,000 to 82,500 is full of trapped positions; the bulls don't have the strength to break through in one go. As long as the rebound stalls near 81,488 or forms a long upper shadow, it is an excellent position to short from the top.
Looking at the macro and news environment, the current overall situation does not support BTC running an independent rally. The Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting is ongoing, inflation pressure remains, and long-term US Treasury yields are stuck near 5%. With such high risk-free interest rates, funds are moving to safe havens. On the tech side, Meta's nearly 100 billion financing plan has drained liquidity, and the risks of AI giants burning money wildly are growing. Coupled with the volatile Middle East situation, oil prices have temporarily fallen but could rebound at any time. Overall risk appetite is extremely fragile.
My order placement method is very strict. I place a short order directly at 81,488, with a stop loss above 82,300. As long as volume increases and it stabilizes above 82,300, it means the short logic has failed, and I will admit defeat and exit without holding the position. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BTC Jamie Dimon said Bitcoin could have an annualized return of 10% over the next decade. I read this news three times to make sure I wasn't mistaken about the person.
The one who has been criticizing Bitcoin for over ten years is now helping Morgan configure portfolios for clients. My first reaction wasn't excitement but calculation—if the money from his clients really enters the market, most likely he wouldn't want the whole world to catch the baton at a high point. In the same week, Morgan Stanley's ETF wallet only bought 80 BTC, worth over $60,000, with a historical total of just 6.45 million. Institutions are really buying, but they keep their heads down; their volume and position sizes are inversely related.
BTC is now just above 80,000, with a low of 79,300 last night. The bigger the official shouting long, the less they buy—I've paid my tuition to learn this rule. This time I won't follow the noise; I'll watch where the money moves.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 The Federal Reserve's decision will be announced at 2 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday, with the mainstream market expectation being no change!
The current federal funds rate range is 3.75%-4.00%, with a unanimous 25 basis point hike on September 16. Originally, the market priced a 65% probability of another rate hike in October by late September, but after Waller's speech on October 16, this expectation dropped directly below 15%.
So this time, don't focus on whether they raise rates or not; the key is to watch the wording and voting dissent! First, will the statement's description of inflation turn more hawkish; second, will there be any dissenting votes—there were already three votes for a rate hike in July; third, will the press conference leave the door open for December.
The real direction will be set at the December 8-9 meeting, which will include the dot plot!
Another key point: the decision comes just 6 days before the November 3 midterm elections, a sensitive timing when the Fed usually does not act lightly. $BTC $ETH $DOOD #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
My answer is yes
SK Hynix Q3 will exceed expectations: HBM4 is the next baton
SK Hynix Q3 results will be announced tomorrow. The market has lowered the operating profit forecast from 81.5 trillion KRW to 77 trillion KRW, citing caution over HBM4. This downgrade actually lowers the bar for exceeding expectations.
First, let's look at what has happened: Samsung's preliminary Q3 operating profit is 107.4 trillion KRW, up 782% year-on-year, with storage price increases as the main driver; DRAM contract prices rose 21%–22% quarter-on-quarter, and NAND prices are also rising. SK Hynix's Q2 operating profit margin was already 76%, so as long as shipments and prices are maintained in Q3, 77 trillion is not a high target. Meritz is more aggressive, projecting 80.1 trillion.
HBM4 is the next baton. The 12-layer HBM4 will be the main product in 2026, and the 8-layer version is for Nvidia Rubin Ultra, targeting mass production in Q2 2027. Nvidia recently lowered HBM4 bandwidth, which seems more about yield and multi-vendor ramp-up rather than demand disappearance. HBM4 has more layers and consumes more wafer per chip, so supply will only tighten.
My judgment: High probability of Q3 exceeding expectations, HBM4 will ramp up in 2026, and the 8-layer version will take over in 2027. For the first round of S2, I bet Yes.🔥Extreme divergence of strength and weakness! ZEC short squeeze buildup, VVV unlock tests authenticity✨
$ZEC $VVV
The BTC market fell below 80,000 with weak volatility📉, but mainstream strong altcoins have completely entered an independent divergent trend! The logic behind these two strong targets is completely different and must not be confused❗️
$ZEC is extremely resilient against the trend✅
Current price 1241, up 2% against the trend in 24H! The chip structure is a textbook short squeeze pattern🔥
Open interest continues to rise, retail long-short ratio only 0.85, severe short squeeze, open contracts exceed 41.1 million, the strongest buildup since September!
Core catalyst locked on November 5 NU7 upgrade💥
Block time compressed from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, greatly increasing certainty of benefits!
There is a heavy 4 million sell wall at 1270 above; before breaking the previous high, chasing longs has low cost-effectiveness, patience is needed to wait for the breakthrough catalyst!
$VVV unlock window tests real strength and weakness⚖️
A super monster coin this year (up 1431%), currently in a critical unlocking period!
Only stabilizing above 27.90 counts as a confirmed rebound; falling below the 22–23 range means weakness directly. This is currently a chip quality verification stage!
Summary highlights💡
ZEC (up 137% this year): short squeeze structure, waiting for benefit explosion
VVV (up 1431% this year): unlocking under pressure, strength and weakness to be determined, shakeout
The rhythms are completely different, position strategies must be treated separately, do not operate uniformly!
⚠️For review and communication only, not investment advice, strictly control positions!
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 SK Hynix's financial report is highly likely to show record-breaking numbers again, with revenue and operating profit expected to multiply year-on-year. How is the pricing negotiation for HBM4 progressing? How much capacity is locked in under the long-term supply agreement? Is there any concrete outcome regarding the much-anticipated special dividend? The answers to these questions are key supports for the company to sustain growth until 2028. Otherwise, even a financial report exceeding expectations would only result in a short-term stock price rebound. On the eve of the FOMC, BTC is stuck in a narrow range between 79,400 and 80,800. The repeated buybacks at 79,400–79,600 are the only bullish evidence, but the 50-day EMA (80,765) failed to be reclaimed, MACD's negative value is expanding, and the 68% probability of a December rate hike looms overhead. These three facts point to the same conclusion — this is a stalemate before the "hawkish pause," not the prelude to a trend reversal. 80,765 is the dividing line, and $78,000 is the level where the pattern fundamentally changes. Before the FOMC decision, favor a neutral stance with a slight bullish bias in the middle range; after the decision, wait for Wash's wording on December rather than the rate outcome itself. $BTC $ETH $DOOD #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ The most critical aspect of $BA's performance today is not the order numbers, but the delivery and cash flow realization. Aerospace manufacturing has a long order backlog, but quality control, regulatory review, and the supply chain determine whether deliveries can be made on schedule. Delays tie up cash and weaken trust. If delivery pace and quality metrics improve and cash flow tightens, the recovery logic holds; if production or regulatory issues recur, the valuation rebound needs to be reassessed. Santiment released data during the day showing 30,000 Bitcoin wallets exiting. I usually glance over such obscure indicators, but this time I paused for two extra seconds.
Because on the same side, there's another data point: two whales dormant for three years deposited 2,571 BTC into Coinbase Prime, worth just over 200 million at current prices. Retail wallets are emptying out, while old money is moving to exchanges.
On-chain analysts say wallet exits are a bottom signal, while the dump camp says whales moving to exchanges means they're cashing out. Both sides sound reasonable, but I don't fully trust either.
I only focus on one spot. BTC is now at 79,900, with a 24-hour low near 79,450, grinding just below 80,000. Some have even pointed to the 85,000 high as a warning of a death loop.
I treat on-chain signals at this level as noise. Whether the 80,000 line can be reclaimed is the key. If it can, those 2,000-plus whale coins are just a drop in the bucket; if not, it doesn't matter how many bags you hold.
At this level, I neither add shorts nor rush to buy; let both sides battle it out first.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 10月29日盘后，亚马逊公布三季报。这份财报我对经营数据乐观，逻辑是：AWS继续加速。市场接下来要判断，亚马逊花出去的钱，能以多快的速度转成收入，以及前沿大模型公司之外，到底有多少客户在持续扩大消费。 我的基准判断是，三季度营收约2035亿美元，营业利润约270亿美元，AWS增速在40%左右。这样的成绩放在经营层面相当不错，放到眼下的预期里，还需要看四季度指引和明年的投入计划。 具体聊聊： 1、先把预期校准，营收增速放缓有一个容易被忽略的原因 目前公开市场预期，亚马逊三季度营收约2022亿美元，EPS约1.96美元。公司此前给出的收入指引是1970亿至2020亿美元，市场已经在等它达到或略超指引上限z 这里有个日历因素：今年主要市场的Prime Day提前到了二季度，去年则在三季度。公司说得很清楚，排除两年Prime Day的影响，本季收入同比增速会高出接近4个百分点，汇率另外拖累约0.8个百分点。 所以，看到集团收入增速从二季度的20%降到三季度预期的12%左右，先别急着下结论说美国消费不行了。部分销售和广告预算已经提前落在六月。 对于亚马逊这种体量的公司，营收比预期多十几亿美元，未Legislative stagnation, administrative frenzy! U.S. regulators strike from three fronts, has Washington finally bowed to crypto? Brothers, don’t just focus on the CLARITY Act stuck in the Senate; the real explosive news is at the administrative level! Just this Monday, U.S. regulatory agencies, without any congressional legislative guidance, simultaneously launched efforts from three directions to frantically build crypto infrastructure. This is definitely a historic turning point for the industry. Experts break down how fierce these "three-pronged attacks" really are: First front: OCC encourages community banks to issue stablecoins. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency directly called on small banks to study issuing their own "digital dollars," setting a new regulation implementation deadline of January 18, 2027. This shows the government has fully recognized reality, no longer rejecting stablecoins but aiming to bring issuance rights back under the regulated traditional banking system. Second front: Crypto giants obtain federal trust charters. Circle, Ripple, BitGo, Fidelity, and Paxos secured conditional approvals by the end of last year, officially becoming national trust banks. Although they cannot take deposits and make loans like regular banks, this means they can legally and compliantly custody client assets. Crypto giants have officially donned suits and entered traditional finance. Third front: CFTC builds registration channel for crypto exchanges. CFTC Chairman Selig clearly stated that since Congress is inactive, they will create an "optional" federal registration channel themselves. Even more explosive, Kraken’s parent company Payward plans to become the first to be regulated by CFT The co-CEO of Coinbase's institutional business boldly stated that the second wave of institutional funds is entering Bitcoin. My first reaction was here we go again. This has been said from last year to this year, and every time it's said, the price dips first.
Currently BTC is at 80289, with a 24-hour low of 79377, truly breaking below 80,000. On OKX, BTC perpetual positions still hold $2.56 billion, volume hasn't decreased. The money is in the market, but the price can't be pushed up; I generally interpret this combination as someone quietly selling above 80,000.
Moody's also listed a crypto market crash as one of the most likely economic shocks in the next 18 months, with the bullish and bearish news coming less than two hours apart. When the news conflicts, I trust neither and only look at positions and price.
At this point, I neither add longs nor open shorts; I'll wait until 83,000 holds for a week before deciding.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议